UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute

Polls analyzed	12
Races called correctly	88%
Most recent cycle	2014
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2014

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-21	525LV	Governor (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Walker +1.0	Actual Walker +5.7	Difference 4.7

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-29	402LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Thompson +3.0	Actual Baldwin +5.6	Difference 8.6
Oct 25-29	402LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +9.0	Actual Obama +6.8	Difference 2.2
May 17-22	406LV	Governor (WI) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Walker +5.0	Actual Walker +6.8	Difference 1.8
Mar 24-28	403LV	President (WI) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Romney +5.0	Actual Romney +7.3	Difference 2.3

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 12-15	402LV	Governor (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Walker +9.0	Actual Walker +5.8	Difference 3.2
Oct 12-15	402LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Johnson +2.0	Actual Johnson +4.8	Difference 2.8

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-25	400LV	House (WI-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Kagen +2.1	Difference 2.1

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 16-27	382LV	Governor (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Doyle +8.0	Actual Doyle +3.7	Difference 4.3

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-24	413LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +7.0	Actual Gore +0.2	Difference 6.8

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 8-20	415LV	Governor (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Thompson +35.0	Actual Thompson +21.0	Difference 14.0
Oct 8-20	415LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Feingold +7.0	Actual Feingold +2.1	Difference 4.9

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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