✕

PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Read more Download the data See the latest polls

St. Pete Polls

B+

Polls analyzed	26
Races called correctly	56%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

How accurate are the polls from St. Pete Polls?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-30	2,758LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Biden (D) +1.1	Actual Trump (R) +3.4	Difference 4.5
Oct 28	1,280LV	House (FL-13) General election	IVR	Poll Crist (D) +16.2	Actual Crist (D) +6.1	Difference 10.1
Oct 21-22	2,527LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Biden (D) +1.5	Actual Trump (R) +3.4	Difference 4.9
Oct 15	943LV	House (FL-15) General election	IVR	Poll Franklin (R) +8.0	Actual Franklin (R) +10.8	Difference 2.8
Mar 6-8	2,480LV	President (FL) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Biden (D) +55.6	Actual Biden (D) +39.1	Difference 16.5

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5	1,194LV	House (FL-15) General election	IVR	Poll Spano (R) +1.9	Actual Spano (R) +6.0	Difference 4.1
Nov 3-4	3,088LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Gillum (D) +4.1	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 4.5
Nov 3-4	3,088LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Nelson (D) +3.7	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 3.8
Nov 1-2	2,733LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Gillum (D) +2.1	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 2.5
Nov 1-2	2,733LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott (R) +1.6	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 1.5
Oct 30-31	2,470LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Nelson (D) +1.9	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 2.0
Oct 20-21	1,575LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Gillum (D) +1.0	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 20-21	1,575LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott (R) +0.3	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 0.2
Oct 15-16	1,974LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Gillum (D) +1.1	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 1.5
Oct 15-16	1,974LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott (R) +1.4	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 1.3

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 6	944LV	House (FL-13) General election	IVR	Poll Crist (D) +5.0	Actual Crist (D) +3.8	Difference 1.2
Nov 1	1,066LV	House (FL-13) General election	IVR	Poll Crist (D) +3.0	Actual Crist (D) +3.8	Difference 0.8
Oct 23	1,087LV	House (FL-13) General election	IVR	Poll Crist (D) +3.0	Actual Crist (D) +3.8	Difference 0.8

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17	1,855LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Crist (D) +1.4	Actual Scott (R) +1.1	Difference 2.5
Feb 25	1,269RV	House (FL-13) Special election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Jolly (R) +1.9	Difference 1.9

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 16	469LV	House (FL-26) General election	IVR	Poll Rivera (R) +2.5	Actual Garcia (D) +10.6	Difference 13.1
Oct 16	557LV	House (FL-22) General election	IVR	Poll Frankel (D) +3.2	Actual Frankel (D) +9.3	Difference 6.1
Oct 16	586LV	House (FL-18) General election	IVR	Poll West (R) +9.1	Actual Murphy (D) +0.6	Difference 9.7
Oct 16	680LV	House (FL-10) General election	IVR	Poll Webster (R) +7.7	Actual Webster (R) +3.5	Difference 4.2
Oct 16	612LV	House (FL-9) General election	IVR	Poll Grayson (D) +4.5	Actual Grayson (D) +25.0	Difference 20.5
Oct 16	770LV	House (FL-2) General election	IVR	Poll Southerland (R) +0.7	Actual Southerland (R) +5.5	Difference 4.8

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

Send us feedback.

Comments