A
| Polls analyzed | 834 |
| Races called correctly | 89% |
| Most recent cycle | 2020 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from SurveyUSA?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16-20 | 600LV | Senate (GA) Runoff | Online | Poll Ossoff (D) +5.0 | Actual Ossoff (D) +1.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Dec 16-20 | 600LV | Senate (GA) Special runoff | Online | Poll Warnock (D) +7.0 | Actual Warnock (D) +2.1 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 29-31 | 1,265LV | President (National) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 23-27 | 509LV | President (ME-2) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden (D) +2.8 | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 10.2 |
| Oct 23-27 | 509LV | President (ME-2) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 10.4 |
| Oct 23-27 | 498LV | President (ME-1) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden (D) +19.0 | Actual Biden (D) +23.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 23-27 | 649LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +3.0 | Actual Smith (D) +5.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 23-27 | 1,007LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Gideon (D) +2.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 10.6 |
| Oct 23-27 | 1,007LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Gideon (D) +1.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 23-27 | 649LV | President (MN) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +7.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 23-27 | 1,007LV | President (ME) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden (D) +13.0 | Actual Biden (D) +9.1 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 23-26 | 637LV | Governor (NC) General election | Online | Poll Cooper (D) +11.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +4.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 23-26 | 627LV | Senate (NC) General election | Online | Poll Cunningham (D) +3.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 23-26 | 627LV | President (NC) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 22-26 | 538LV | House (CA-50) General election | Live Phone | Poll Issa (R) +11.0 | Actual Issa (R) +7.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 16-20 | 625LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +1.0 | Actual Smith (D) +5.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 16-20 | 625LV | President (MN) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +6.0 | Actual Biden (D) +7.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 16-19 | 1,136LV | President (National) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +10.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 15-18 | 511LV | House (CA-53) General election | Live Phone | Poll Jacobs (D) +13.0 | Actual Jacobs (D) +19.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Mar 4-6 | 550LV | President (WA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Biden (D) +1.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Feb 13-16 | 698LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +2.0 | Actual Biden (D) +18.7 | Difference 20.7 |
| Feb 13-16 | 520LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +10.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +8.1 | Difference 1.9 |
2018
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-2 | 924LV | Governor (CA) General election | Online | Poll Newsom (D) +15.0 | Actual Newsom (D) +23.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Nov 1-2 | 806LV | Senate (CA) General election | Online | Poll Feinstein (D) +14.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +8.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 500LV | House (CA-49) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Levin (D) +7.0 | Actual Levin (D) +12.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600LV | Governor (MN) General election | Online | Poll Walz (D) +8.0 | Actual Walz (D) +11.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600LV | Senate (MN) Special election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +8.0 | Actual Smith (D) +10.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Klobuchar (D) +23.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +24.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 26-29 | 609LV | House (NY-19) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Delgado (D) +5.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 25-29 | 547LV | House (CA-50) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Hunter (R) +3.0 | Actual Hunter (R) +3.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 24-28 | 565LV | House (NC-2) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Holding (R) +9.0 | Actual Holding (R) +5.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 18-21 | 665LV | Governor (FL) General election | Online | Poll Gillum (D) +7.0 | Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 18-21 | 665LV | Senate (FL) General election | Online | Poll Nelson (D) +8.0 | Actual Scott (R) +0.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 16-20 | 586LV | House (MN-1) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Feehan (D) +2.0 | Actual Hagedorn (R) +0.5 | Difference 2.5 |
2017
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7-11 | 503LV | House (GA-6) Special runoff | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Handel (R) +3.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Mar 27-Apr 2 | 503LV | House (GA-6) Special jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Ossoff (D) +28.0 | Actual Ossoff (D) +28.4 | Difference 0.4 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 681LV | President (WA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +12.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 667LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Murray (D) +12.0 | Actual Murray (D) +18.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 667LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Inslee (D) +7.0 | Actual Inslee (D) +8.8 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 28-31 | 659LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 28-31 | 747LV | President (CA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +21.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +30.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 28-31 | 747LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Harris (D) +20.0 | Actual Harris (D) +23.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 28-31 | 659LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Burr (R) +6.0 | Actual Burr (R) +5.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 28-31 | 659LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Cooper (D) +1.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +0.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 27-30 | 598LV | House (NY-19) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Teachout (D) +3.0 | Actual Faso (R) +8.1 | Difference 11.1 |
| Oct 26-30 | 624LV | President (KS) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump (R) +11.0 | Actual Trump (R) +20.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 26-30 | 596LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Moran (R) +24.0 | Actual Moran (R) +29.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 25-27 | 683RV | President (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Trump (R) +5.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 22-26 | 656LV | President (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +11.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.5 | Difference 9.5 |
| Oct 22-26 | 656LV | President (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +10.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.5 | Difference 8.5 |
| Oct 20-24 | 1,251LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 20-24 | 1,251LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rubio (R) +4.0 | Actual Rubio (R) +7.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 16-19 | 595LV | House (MN-8) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Mills (R) +4.0 | Actual Nolan (D) +0.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| May 19-22 | 803LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +18.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +7.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Mar 9-10 | 734LV | President (NC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +20.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 16.5 |
| Mar 9-10 | 669LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +24.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +13.6 | Difference 10.4 |
| Mar 4-7 | 688LV | President (NC) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Trump (R) +14.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 10.5 |
| Mar 4-7 | 687LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +23.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +13.6 | Difference 9.4 |
| Mar 4-6 | 937LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Trump (R) +20.0 | Actual Trump (R) +18.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Mar 4-6 | 823LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +31.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +31.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Feb 22-23 | 684LV | President (GA) Republican primary | Live Phone/Online | Poll Trump (R) +26.0 | Actual Trump (R) +14.4 | Difference 11.6 |
| Feb 22-23 | 501LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | Live Phone/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +39.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +43.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Feb 21-22 | 645LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Cruz (R) +17.0 | Difference 17.0 |
| Feb 21-22 | 569LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton (D) +29.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +32.0 | Difference 3.0 |
2015
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23-26 | 798LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Conway (D) +5.0 | Actual Bevin (R) +8.7 | Difference 13.7 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 591LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Deal (R) +5.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 591LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Perdue (R) +3.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 27-30 | 551LV | House (CA-52) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll DeMaio (R) +1.0 | Actual Peters (D) +3.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 27-30 | 596LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Dayton (D) +5.0 | Actual Dayton (D) +5.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 27-30 | 597LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Franken (D) +11.0 | Actual Franken (D) +10.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 27-29 | 618LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +3.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 27-29 | 618LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Gardner (R) +2.0 | Actual Gardner (R) +1.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 25-29 | 597LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McConnell (R) +5.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +15.5 | Difference 10.5 |
| Oct 24-27 | 611LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Deal (R) +2.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 24-27 | 611LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Perdue (R) +3.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 23-27 | 552LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +10.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +5.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 23-27 | 552LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Merkley (D) +21.0 | Actual Merkley (D) +18.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 21-26 | 611LV | House (SD-1) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Noem (R) +16.0 | Actual Noem (R) +33.1 | Difference 17.1 |
| Oct 21-26 | 611LV | Governor (SD) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Daugaard (R) +20.0 | Actual Daugaard (R) +45.0 | Difference 25.0 |
| Oct 22-26 | 623LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Davis (D) +3.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +3.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 21-26 | 611LV | Senate (SD) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rounds (R) +11.0 | Actual Rounds (R) +20.9 | Difference 9.9 |
| Oct 22-26 | 623LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Orman (I) +2.0 | Actual Roberts (R) +10.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Oct 21-25 | 802LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Tillis (R) +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 17-20 | 608LV | House (CA-52) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll DeMaio (R) +1.0 | Actual Peters (D) +3.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 17-20 | 606LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Deal (R) +2.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 17-20 | 606LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Nunn (D) +2.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 16-20 | 568LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Hagan (D) +3.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 16-19 | 554LV | House (CA-21) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Valadao (R) +5.0 | Actual Valadao (R) +15.7 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 16-19 | 579LV | House (CA-17) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Honda (D) +2.0 | Actual Honda (D) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 16-19 | 561LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +13.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +5.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 16-19 | 561LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Merkley (D) +21.0 | Actual Merkley (D) +18.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 15-19 | 655LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McConnell (R) +1.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +15.5 | Difference 14.5 |
| Oct 14-16 | 597LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Dayton (D) +10.0 | Actual Dayton (D) +5.6 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 14-16 | 597LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Franken (D) +15.0 | Actual Franken (D) +10.2 | Difference 4.8 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-4 | 803LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Brown (D) +3.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 1-4 | 803LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 585LV | House (MN-8) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Nolan (D) +2.0 | Actual Nolan (D) +8.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Nov 1-3 | 556LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Klobuchar (D) +30.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +34.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Nov 1-3 | 556LV | President (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 28-Nov 3 | 589LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Nixon (D) +9.0 | Actual Nixon (D) +12.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 28-Nov 3 | 589LV | President (MO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Romney (R) +7.0 | Actual Romney (R) +9.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 28-Nov 3 | 589LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McCaskill (D) +15.0 | Actual McCaskill (D) +15.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 28-31 | 555LV | President (WA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +14.0 | Actual Obama (D) +14.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 28-31 | 695LV | President (CO) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 28-31 | 555LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Inslee (D) +1.0 | Actual Inslee (D) +3.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 628LV | House (CA-52) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Peters (D) +2.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 26-29 | 682LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Romney (R) +5.0 | Actual Romney (R) +2.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 23-29 | 1,212LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Heller (R) +6.0 | Actual Heller (R) +1.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 26-29 | 603LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Brown (D) +5.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 26-29 | 682LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McCrory (R) +17.0 | Actual McCrory (R) +11.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 26-29 | 603LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 23-29 | 1,212LV | President (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 26-28 | 648LV | House (NV-4) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Tarkanian (R) +5.0 | Actual Horsford (D) +8.0 | Difference 13.0 |
| Oct 26-28 | 574LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Klobuchar (D) +31.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +34.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 25-28 | 574LV | President (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Romney (R) +8.0 | Actual Romney (R) +7.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 26-28 | 574LV | President (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 595LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Nelson (D) +8.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +13.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 25-27 | 595LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +0.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 23-25 | 554LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Gillibrand (D) +42.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +45.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 23-25 | 554LV | President (NY) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +29.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 22-24 | 674LV | House (CA-30) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Sherman (D) +11.0 | Actual Sherman (D) +20.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 21-23 | 502LV | House (NV-3) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Heck (R) +10.0 | Actual Heck (R) +7.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 609LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Brown (D) +1.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 609LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 19-21 | 610LV | House (WA-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll DelBene (D) +3.0 | Actual DelBene (D) +7.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 19-21 | 575LV | President (CT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 19-21 | 575LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Murphy (D) +4.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +11.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 17-18 | 577LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +14.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 17-18 | 600LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +1.0 | Actual Obama (D) +0.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 16-18 | 579LV | President (OR) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +12.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 17-18 | 565LV | House (MN-2) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Kline (R) +8.0 | Actual Kline (R) +8.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 17-18 | 577LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Menendez (D) +20.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +19.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 17-18 | 600LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Nelson (D) +8.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +13.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Feb 23-26 | 457LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Gingrich (R) +16.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +21.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Jan 27-29 | 500LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Jan 24-25 | 540LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR/Online | Poll Romney (R) +7.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 7.5 |
2011
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28-Nov 1 | 576LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Beshear (D) +25.0 | Actual Beshear (D) +20.4 | Difference 4.6 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26-31 | 587LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Boxer (D) +8.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +10.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 26-31 | 587LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +11.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 25-28 | 544LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +30.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 23-28 | 580LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +7.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +1.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 23-28 | 580LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Wyden (D) +25.0 | Actual Wyden (D) +18.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 25-28 | 544LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +22.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 25-28 | 665LV | House (MN-8) General election | IVR | Poll Oberstar (D) +1.0 | Actual Cravaack (R) +1.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 25-28 | 534LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Pompeo (R) +16.0 | Actual Pompeo (R) +22.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 25-28 | 544LV | Senate (NY) Special election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +20.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 27 | 524LV | House (VA-5) General election | IVR | Poll Hurt (R) +8.0 | Actual Hurt (R) +3.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 24-27 | 625LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Dayton (D) +1.0 | Actual Dayton (D) +0.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 24-27 | 637LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Paul (R) +9.0 | Actual Paul (R) +11.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 24-27 | 678LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 22-26 | 558LV | House (MN-1) General election | IVR | Poll Walz (D) +9.0 | Actual Walz (D) +5.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 22-26 | 613LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Portman (R) +15.0 | Actual Portman (R) +17.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 22-26 | 561LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Moran (R) +40.0 | Actual Moran (R) +43.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 22-26 | 613LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kasich (R) +5.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +2.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 22-26 | 561LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Brownback (R) +27.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +31.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 24-26 | 640LV | House (WA-3) General election | IVR | Poll Herrera Beutler (R) +4.0 | Actual Herrera Beutler (R) +5.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 22-25 | 590LV | House (WA-9) General election | IVR | Poll Smith (D) +3.0 | Actual Smith (D) +9.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 21-25 | 608LV | House (VA-9) General election | IVR | Poll Griffith (R) +1.0 | Actual Griffith (R) +4.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 21-25 | 588LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +4.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +10.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 21-25 | 400LV | House (IN-3) General election | IVR | Poll Stutzman (R) +25.0 | Actual Stutzman (R) +29.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 21-25 | 1,600LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Coats (R) +22.0 | Actual Coats (R) +14.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 21-25 | 594LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +5.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +10.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 21-25 | 594LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown (D) +8.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 22-25 | 590LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr (R) +15.0 | Actual Burr (R) +11.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 21-24 | 601LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Isakson (R) +24.0 | Actual Isakson (R) +19.3 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 21-24 | 601LV | House (CA-20) General election | IVR | Poll Vidak (R) +10.0 | Actual Costa (D) +3.4 | Difference 13.4 |
| Oct 21-24 | 601LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Deal (R) +10.0 | Actual Deal (R) +10.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 21-24 | 400RV | House (NC-2) General election | IVR | Poll Ellmers (R) +5.0 | Actual Ellmers (R) +0.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 19-21 | 621LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Bennet (D) +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 19-21 | 621LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Hickenlooper (D) +10.0 | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +14.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 19-21 | 643LV | House (WA-2) General election | IVR | Poll Larsen (D) +4.0 | Actual Larsen (D) +2.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 18-20 | 639LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Reichert (R) +7.0 | Actual Reichert (R) +4.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 17-19 | 601LV | House (OR-5) General election | IVR | Poll Bruun (R) +10.0 | Actual Schrader (D) +5.3 | Difference 15.3 |
| Oct 15-18 | 621LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +2.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +10.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 16-18 | 602LV | House (OR-1) General election | IVR | Poll Wu (D) +9.0 | Actual Wu (D) +12.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 15-18 | 621LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown (D) +7.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 11-14 | 579LV | House (WA-3) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Herrera Beutler (R) +11.0 | Actual Herrera Beutler (R) +5.9 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 11-14 | 612LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +3.0 | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 12-14 | 652LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Wyden (D) +22.0 | Actual Wyden (D) +18.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 12-14 | 652LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +1.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +1.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 12-14 | 647LV | Governor (NM) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Martinez (R) +12.0 | Actual Martinez (R) +6.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 12-14 | 584LV | House (MN-1) General election | IVR | Poll Walz (D) +5.0 | Actual Walz (D) +5.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 11-13 | 633LV | House (VA-9) General election | IVR | Poll Boucher (D) +10.0 | Actual Griffith (R) +4.8 | Difference 14.8 |
| Oct 11-13 | 633LV | Senate (NY) Special election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +18.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 9.8 |
| Oct 11-13 | 633LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +33.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 11-13 | 712LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Dayton (D) +5.0 | Actual Dayton (D) +0.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 11-13 | 633LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +26.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 11-12 | 2,355LV | Senate (DE) Special election | IVR | Poll Coons (D) +21.0 | Actual Coons (D) +16.6 | Difference 4.4 |
2009
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 502LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McDonnell (R) +18.0 | Actual McDonnell (R) +17.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 582LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie (R) +3.0 | Actual Christie (R) +3.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 26-28 | 640LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Christie (R) +3.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 26-28 | 581LV | House (CA-10) Special election | IVR | Poll Garamendi (D) +10.0 | Actual Garamendi (D) +10.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 25-26 | 502LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McDonnell (R) +17.0 | Actual McDonnell (R) +17.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 19-21 | 674LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie (R) +2.0 | Actual Christie (R) +3.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 17-19 | 595LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McDonnell (R) +19.0 | Actual McDonnell (R) +17.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 12-14 | 611LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie (R) +1.0 | Actual Christie (R) +3.6 | Difference 2.6 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17-18 | 648LV | House (LA-4) General election | IVR | Poll Fleming (R) +2.0 | Actual Fleming (R) +0.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 31-Nov 3 | 657LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 3 | 691LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +2.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 640LV | House (VA-5) General election | IVR | Poll Goode (R) +3.0 | Actual Perriello (D) +0.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 622LV | House (PA-11) General election | IVR | Poll Barletta (R) +6.0 | Actual Kanjorski (D) +3.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 682LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Hagan (D) +7.0 | Actual Hagan (D) +8.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 683LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Chambliss (R) +4.0 | Actual Chambliss (R) +2.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 682LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Perdue (D) +1.0 | Actual Perdue (D) +3.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 663LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gregoire (D) +6.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +6.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 663LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +16.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 660LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 682LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +1.0 | Actual Obama (D) +0.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 674LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain (R) +0.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 683LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +7.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 674LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Nixon (D) +15.0 | Actual Nixon (D) +18.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 669LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Coleman (R) +5.0 | Actual Franken (D) +0.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 672LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 669LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.2 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 616LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +16.0 | Actual McCain (R) +16.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 672LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Warner (D) +24.0 | Actual Warner (D) +31.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 616LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell (R) +8.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +5.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 664LV | President (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +15.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 664LV | Senate (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Udall (D) +14.0 | Actual Udall (D) +22.7 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 700LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 29-31 | 674LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Collins (R) +14.0 | Actual Collins (R) +22.7 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 674LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +20.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 637LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +24.0 | Actual Obama (D) +24.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 29-30 | 700LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +19.0 | Actual Obama (D) +16.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 29-30 | 632LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +10.0 | Actual Obama (D) +15.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 29-30 | 682LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 27-30 | 900LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Daniels (R) +17.0 | Actual Daniels (R) +17.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 27-30 | 900LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +1.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 29-30 | 647LV | House (MN-3) General election | IVR | Poll Paulsen (R) +5.0 | Actual Paulsen (R) +7.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 29-30 | 700LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Merkley (D) +7.0 | Actual Merkley (D) +3.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 29-30 | 632LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Lautenberg (D) +15.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +14.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 29-30 | 682LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Shaheen (D) +13.0 | Actual Shaheen (D) +6.3 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 29-30 | 682LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Lynch (D) +37.0 | Actual Lynch (D) +42.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 29-30 | 625LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Bachmann (R) +1.0 | Actual Bachmann (R) +3.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 28-29 | 587LV | House (NY-26) General election | IVR | Poll Lee (R) +14.0 | Actual Lee (R) +14.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 28-29 | 654LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Graham (R) +19.0 | Actual Graham (R) +15.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 28-29 | 594LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Inhofe (R) +20.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +17.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 28-29 | 658LV | Senate (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Harkin (D) +26.0 | Actual Harkin (D) +25.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 28-29 | 667LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +16.0 | Actual Obama (D) +13.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 28-29 | 654LV | President (SC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +8.0 | Actual McCain (R) +9.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 28-29 | 594LV | President (OK) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +31.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 28-29 | 658LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +15.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 27-28 | 633LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +29.0 | Actual Obama (D) +26.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 27-28 | 658LV | President (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +17.0 | Actual Obama (D) +25.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 27-28 | 626LV | President (KS) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +21.0 | Actual McCain (R) +15.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 27-28 | 657LV | President (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +30.0 | Actual Obama (D) +25.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 27-28 | 650LV | President (AL) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +25.0 | Actual McCain (R) +21.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 27-28 | 668LV | House (OR-5) General election | IVR | Poll Schrader (D) +24.0 | Actual Schrader (D) +15.9 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 27-28 | 618LV | House (MO-6) General election | IVR | Poll Graves (R) +18.0 | Actual Graves (R) +22.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 27-28 | 658LV | Senate (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +24.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +34.9 | Difference 10.9 |
| Oct 27-28 | 626LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Roberts (R) +27.0 | Actual Roberts (R) +23.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 27-28 | 657LV | Senate (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Biden (D) +34.0 | Actual Biden (D) +29.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 27-28 | 650LV | Senate (AL) General election | IVR | Poll Sessions (R) +33.0 | Actual Sessions (R) +26.8 | Difference 6.2 |
| Oct 27-28 | 657LV | Governor (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Markell (D) +35.0 | Actual Markell (D) +35.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 26-27 | 648LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 26-27 | 630LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +17.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 26-27 | 643LV | House (MN-3) General election | IVR | Poll Paulsen (R) +1.0 | Actual Paulsen (R) +7.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 26-27 | 591LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (R) +21.0 | Actual Davis (R) +26.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 26-27 | 587LV | House (KY-2) General election | IVR | Poll Guthrie (R) +10.0 | Actual Guthrie (R) +5.1 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 26-27 | 630LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gregoire (D) +2.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +6.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 25-26 | 632LV | House (OH-15) General election | IVR | Poll Kilroy (D) +6.0 | Actual Kilroy (D) +0.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 25-26 | 635LV | House (KS-3) General election | IVR | Poll Moore (D) +11.0 | Actual Moore (D) +16.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 25-26 | 634LV | House (GA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Marshall (D) +4.0 | Actual Marshall (D) +14.5 | Difference 10.5 |
| Oct 25-26 | 671LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Warner (D) +31.0 | Actual Warner (D) +31.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 25-26 | 672LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Merkley (D) +7.0 | Actual Merkley (D) +3.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 25-26 | 672LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Nixon (D) +17.0 | Actual Nixon (D) +18.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 25-26 | 671LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 25-26 | 672LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +19.0 | Actual Obama (D) +16.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 25-26 | 672LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain (R) +0.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 25-26 | 600LV | House (SC-1) General election | IVR | Poll Brown (R) +5.0 | Actual Brown (R) +4.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 22-23 | 599LV | House (IN-9) General election | IVR | Poll Hill (D) +15.0 | Actual Hill (D) +19.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 21-22 | 613LV | President (KS) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +12.0 | Actual McCain (R) +15.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 21-22 | 631LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +1.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 21-22 | 620LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +12.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 21-22 | 621LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Tinklenberg (D) +3.0 | Actual Bachmann (R) +3.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 21-22 | 612LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +16.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +18.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 21-22 | 613LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Roberts (R) +22.0 | Actual Roberts (R) +23.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 21-22 | 631LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Daniels (R) +19.0 | Actual Daniels (R) +17.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 20-21 | 597LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +33.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +31.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 20-21 | 623LV | House (IL-11) General election | IVR | Poll Halvorson (D) +13.0 | Actual Halvorson (D) +23.9 | Difference 10.9 |
| Oct 20-21 | 600LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Burner (D) +4.0 | Actual Reichert (R) +5.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 19-20 | 642LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Collins (R) +11.0 | Actual Collins (R) +22.7 | Difference 11.7 |
| Oct 19-20 | 642LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +15.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 627LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Hagan (D) +1.0 | Actual Hagan (D) +8.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 18-20 | 535LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McConnell (R) +5.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 18-20 | 627LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +0.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 535LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +13.0 | Actual McCain (R) +16.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 18-20 | 627LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCrory (R) +3.0 | Actual Perdue (D) +3.4 | Difference 6.4 |
| Oct 18-19 | 652A | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 18-19 | 561LV | President (OK) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +24.0 | Actual McCain (R) +31.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 18-19 | 652LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Warner (D) +24.0 | Actual Warner (D) +31.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 18-19 | 604LV | President (WY) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +21.0 | Actual McCain (R) +32.2 | Difference 11.2 |
| Oct 18-19 | 561LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Inhofe (R) +12.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +17.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 18-19 | 641LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Obama (D) +13.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 18-19 | 604LV | House (WY-1) General election | IVR | Poll Lummis (R) +6.0 | Actual Lummis (R) +9.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 18-19 | 613LV | House (ID-1) General election | IVR | Poll Minnick (D) +6.0 | Actual Minnick (D) +1.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 16-18 | 655LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 16-18 | 655LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Coleman (R) +2.0 | Actual Franken (D) +0.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 15-17 | 559LV | House (KY-2) General election | IVR | Poll Guthrie (R) +9.0 | Actual Guthrie (R) +5.1 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 15-16 | 615LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +24.0 | Actual Obama (D) +24.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 16 | 553LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +2.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 14-15 | 650LV | House (CA-11) General election | IVR | Poll McNerney (D) +11.0 | Actual McNerney (D) +10.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 14-15 | 613LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +16.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +18.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 13-14 | 602LV | House (CT-4) General election | IVR | Poll Himes (D) +3.0 | Actual Himes (D) +3.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 13-14 | 624LV | Senate (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +30.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +34.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 13-14 | 624LV | President (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +24.0 | Actual Obama (D) +25.8 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 13-14 | 587LV | House (OR-5) General election | IVR | Poll Schrader (D) +13.0 | Actual Schrader (D) +15.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 13-14 | 589LV | House (MO-6) General election | IVR | Poll Graves (R) +11.0 | Actual Graves (R) +22.6 | Difference 11.6 |
| May 16-18 | 627LV | President (OR) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +18.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| May 16-18 | 629LV | President (KY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +31.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +35.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| May 9-11 | 615LV | President (OR) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +18.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| May 9-11 | 641LV | President (KY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +32.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +35.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| May 3-5 | 595LV | President (KY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +34.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +35.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| May 2-4 | 810LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +14.5 | Difference 9.5 |
| May 2-4 | 675LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +12.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.1 | Difference 10.9 |
| Apr 28-30 | 650LV | President (OR) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +18.0 | Difference 12.0 |
| Apr 28-30 | 689LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +7.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.1 | Difference 5.9 |
| Apr 27-29 | 501LV | House (LA-6) Special election | IVR | Poll Cazayoux (D) +9.0 | Actual Cazayoux (D) +2.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Apr 26-28 | 727LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +14.5 | Difference 9.5 |
| Apr 25-27 | 628LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.1 | Difference 7.9 |
| Apr 19-21 | 734LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +14.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Apr 18-20 | 710LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +9.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Apr 14-16 | 578LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Apr 12-14 | 638LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +14.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +9.1 | Difference 4.9 |
| Apr 5-7 | 597LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +18.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +9.1 | Difference 8.9 |
| Mar 3-4 | 517LV | House (IL-14) Special election | IVR | Poll Foster (D) +7.0 | Actual Foster (D) +5.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Mar 1-2 | 466LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +17.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Mar 1-2 | 840LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +1.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Mar 1-2 | 455LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Mar 1-2 | 873LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +10.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Feb 24-25 | 790LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Feb 23-25 | 484LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +24.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.2 | Difference 10.8 |
| Feb 23-25 | 704LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +3.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Feb 24-25 | 456LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +31.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 8.8 |
| Feb 17-18 | 478LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +32.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 9.8 |
| Feb 17-18 | 773LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Feb 16-18 | 505LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +13.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Feb 16-18 | 660LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +5.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Feb 9-10 | 385LV | President (VA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +11.0 | Actual McCain (R) +9.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Feb 9-10 | 596LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +22.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| Feb 9-10 | 368LV | President (MD) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +26.0 | Actual McCain (R) +26.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Feb 9-10 | 774LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +23.0 | Actual Obama (D) +24.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Feb 7-8 | 737LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +19.0 | Actual Obama (D) +24.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Feb 7-8 | 598LV | President (WA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +36.5 | Difference 31.5 |
| Feb 7-8 | 433LV | President (WA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +25.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Feb 7-8 | 382LV | President (VA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +32.0 | Actual McCain (R) +9.4 | Difference 22.6 |
| Feb 7-8 | 588LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +20.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Feb 6-7 | 360LV | President (MD) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +39.0 | Actual McCain (R) +26.3 | Difference 12.7 |
| Feb 3-4 | 556LV | President (CA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +1.0 | Actual McCain (R) +7.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Feb 3-4 | 872LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +10.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Feb 2-3 | 575RV | President (WA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +36.5 | Difference 23.5 |
| Feb 2-3 | 445LV | President (OK) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +5.0 | Actual McCain (R) +3.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Feb 2-3 | 673LV | President (OK) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +27.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +23.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Feb 2-3 | 356LV | President (NY) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +33.0 | Actual McCain (R) +24.1 | Difference 8.9 |
| Feb 2-3 | 774LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +18.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Feb 2-3 | 467LV | President (NJ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +27.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Feb 2-3 | 706LV | President (NJ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +11.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +9.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Feb 2-3 | 542LV | President (MO) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +2.0 | Actual McCain (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Feb 2-3 | 671LV | President (MO) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +1.4 | Difference 12.4 |
| Feb 2-3 | 275LV | President (MA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney (R) +21.0 | Actual Romney (R) +10.2 | Difference 10.8 |
| Feb 2-3 | 651LV | President (MA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Feb 2-3 | 1,010LV | President (IL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +36.0 | Actual Obama (D) +31.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Feb 2-3 | 333LV | President (CT) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +22.0 | Actual McCain (R) +19.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Feb 2-3 | 635LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Feb 2-3 | 517LV | President (CA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +3.0 | Actual McCain (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Feb 2-3 | 853LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +12.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Feb 2-3 | 619LV | President (AL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +2.0 | Actual Huckabee (R) +4.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Feb 2-3 | 638LV | President (AL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +14.4 | Difference 12.4 |
| Feb 2-3 | 441LV | President (IL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +21.0 | Actual McCain (R) +18.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Jan 30-31 | 456LV | President (NJ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +23.0 | Actual McCain (R) +27.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Jan 30-31 | 642LV | President (NJ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +12.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +9.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Jan 30-31 | 505LV | President (MO) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +6.0 | Actual McCain (R) +1.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Jan 30-31 | 664LV | President (MO) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +1.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Jan 30-31 | 426LV | President (CT) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +22.0 | Actual McCain (R) +19.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Jan 30-31 | 679LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Jan 31 | 586LV | President (AL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +9.0 | Actual Huckabee (R) +4.1 | Difference 13.1 |
| Jan 31 | 586LV | President (AL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +14.4 | Difference 14.4 |
| Jan 30-31 | 462LV | President (NY) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +34.0 | Actual McCain (R) +24.1 | Difference 9.9 |
| Jan 30-31 | 950LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +16.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Jan 30 | 297LV | President (MA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney (R) +23.0 | Actual Romney (R) +10.2 | Difference 12.8 |
| Jan 30 | 575LV | President (MA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +24.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.4 | Difference 8.6 |
| Jan 27-28 | 979LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +1.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Jan 27-28 | 903LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +24.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Jan 27 | 564LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +20.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Jan 27 | 608LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney (R) +1.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Jan 27 | 502LV | President (OK) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +9.0 | Actual McCain (R) +3.2 | Difference 5.8 |
| Jan 27 | 506LV | President (CA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +12.0 | Actual McCain (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.3 |
| Jan 27 | 888LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +11.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Jan 23-24 | 550LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +2.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Jan 23-24 | 522LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Jan 23-24 | 606LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.9 | Difference 15.9 |
| Jan 22-23 | 262LV | President (MA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney (R) +21.0 | Actual Romney (R) +10.2 | Difference 10.8 |
| Jan 22-23 | 586LV | President (MA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +37.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.4 | Difference 21.6 |
| Jan 22-23 | 685LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +16.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.9 | Difference 12.9 |
| Jan 20-21 | 518LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +6.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Jan 20-21 | 517LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +33.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 16.2 |
| Jan 16-17 | 577LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +10.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.9 | Difference 18.9 |
| Jan 16-17 | 699LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +4.0 | Actual McCain (R) +3.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Jan 16 | 269LV | President (MA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney (R) +14.0 | Actual Romney (R) +10.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Jan 16 | 539LV | President (MA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +33.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.4 | Difference 17.6 |
| Jan 16 | 470LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +3.0 | Actual McCain (R) +3.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Jan 11-13 | 601LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +33.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 16.2 |
| Jan 11-13 | 542LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +7.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Jan 9-10 | 502A | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +10.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Jan 9-10 | 577LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +19.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.8 | Difference 2.2 |
2007
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-4 | 552LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Beshear (D) +20.0 | Actual Beshear (D) +17.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 562LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Beshear (D) +24.0 | Actual Beshear (D) +17.4 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 20-22 | 572LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Beshear (D) +20.0 | Actual Beshear (D) +17.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 8-10 | 457LV | House (MA-5) Special election | IVR | Poll Tsongas (D) +9.0 | Actual Tsongas (D) +6.2 | Difference 2.8 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8-10 | 530LV | House (TX-23) Runoff | IVR | Poll Bonilla (R) +4.0 | Actual Rodriguez (D) +8.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Dec 1-3 | 471LV | House (TX-23) Runoff | IVR | Poll Bonilla (R) +7.0 | Actual Rodriguez (D) +8.6 | Difference 15.6 |
| Nov 4-6 | 793LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll McCaskill (D) +6.0 | Actual McCaskill (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Nov 3-5 | 685LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Reichert (R) +2.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Nov 3-5 | 688LV | House (NM-1) General election | IVR | Poll Madrid (D) +2.0 | Actual Wilson (R) +0.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Nov 3-5 | 510LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (R) +6.0 | Actual Davis (R) +8.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Nov 3-5 | 485LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +5.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +2.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Nov 3-5 | 741LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Webb (D) +8.0 | Actual Webb (D) +0.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Nov 3-5 | 679LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker (R) +5.0 | Actual Corker (R) +2.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Nov 3-5 | 436LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown (D) +12.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Nov 3-5 | 663LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Cardin (D) +3.0 | Actual Cardin (D) +10.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Nov 3-5 | 679LV | Governor (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bredesen (D) +28.0 | Actual Bredesen (D) +38.9 | Difference 10.9 |
| Nov 3-5 | 436LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Strickland (D) +17.0 | Actual Strickland (D) +23.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Nov 3-5 | 710LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Pawlenty (R) +1.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Nov 3-5 | 663LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll O'Malley (D) +3.0 | Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Nov 3-5 | 549LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Beebe (D) +9.0 | Actual Beebe (D) +14.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Nov 3-5 | 710LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Klobuchar (D) +16.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +20.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Nov 2-4 | 511LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Sebelius (D) +17.0 | Actual Sebelius (D) +17.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Nov 2-4 | 682LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Crist (R) +2.0 | Actual Crist (R) +7.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Nov 2-4 | 553LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +15.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 4 | 806LV | House (MN-5) General election | IVR | Poll Ellison (D) +25.0 | Actual Ellison (D) +34.2 | Difference 9.2 |
| Nov 2-4 | 687LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Stabenow (D) +10.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +15.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Nov 2-4 | 682LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson (D) +23.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +22.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Nov 2-4 | 652LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Lieberman (I) +11.0 | Actual Lieberman (I) +10.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Nov 2-4 | 553LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Feinstein (D) +29.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +24.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 485LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Sanford (R) +17.0 | Actual Sanford (R) +10.3 | Difference 6.7 |
| Nov 2-4 | 687LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm (D) +6.0 | Actual Granholm (D) +14.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Nov 1-4 | 638LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Baldacci (D) +6.0 | Actual Baldacci (D) +7.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Nov 1-3 | 550LV | House (CA-50) General election | IVR | Poll Bilbray (R) +14.0 | Actual Bilbray (R) +9.6 | Difference 4.4 |
| Nov 1-3 | 488LV | Governor (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Henry (D) +36.0 | Actual Henry (D) +33.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 470LV | House (NY-26) General election | IVR | Poll Reynolds (R) +4.0 | Actual Reynolds (R) +4.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 698LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Bachmann (R) +7.0 | Actual Bachmann (R) +8.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 568LV | House (FL-9) General election | IVR | Poll Bilirakis (R) +12.0 | Actual Bilirakis (R) +11.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Nov 1-3 | 596LV | House (CO-5) General election | IVR | Poll Lamborn (R) +9.0 | Actual Lamborn (R) +19.3 | Difference 10.3 |
| Nov 1-2 | 538LV | House (IN-9) General election | IVR | Poll Sodrel (R) +2.0 | Actual Hill (D) +4.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Nov 2 | 557LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry (R) +16.0 | Actual Perry (R) +9.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 571LV | House (CO-4) General election | IVR | Poll Musgrave (R) +1.0 | Actual Musgrave (R) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 647LV | House (CA-4) General election | IVR | Poll Doolittle (R) +7.0 | Actual Doolittle (R) +3.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 694LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Cardin (D) +10.0 | Difference 10.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 560LV | Senate (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Kyl (R) +13.0 | Actual Kyl (R) +9.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 694LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll O'Malley (D) +1.0 | Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 560LV | Governor (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Napolitano (D) +19.0 | Actual Napolitano (D) +27.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 541LV | House (OH-6) General election | IVR | Poll Wilson (D) +19.0 | Actual Wilson (D) +24.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 530LV | House (VA-5) General election | IVR | Poll Goode (R) +26.0 | Actual Goode (R) +19.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 610LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +8.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +2.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 553LV | House (CA-26) General election | IVR | Poll Dreier (R) +19.0 | Actual Dreier (R) +19.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 664LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Patrick (D) +21.0 | Actual Patrick (D) +20.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 434LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich (D) +8.0 | Actual Blagojevich (D) +10.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 661LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Ritter (D) +22.0 | Actual Ritter (D) +16.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 602LV | Governor (AL) General election | IVR | Poll Riley (R) +15.0 | Actual Riley (R) +15.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 29-31 | 530LV | House (SC-5) General election | IVR | Poll Spratt (D) +19.0 | Actual Spratt (D) +13.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 430LV | House (OK-5) General election | IVR | Poll Fallin (R) +22.0 | Actual Fallin (R) +23.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 618LV | House (OH-2) General election | IVR | Poll Wulsin (D) +3.0 | Actual Schmidt (R) +1.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 589LV | House (CO-7) General election | IVR | Poll Perlmutter (D) +16.0 | Actual Perlmutter (D) +12.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 643LV | House (AZ-5) General election | IVR | Poll Mitchell (D) +2.0 | Actual Mitchell (D) +4.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 28-30 | 498LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Reichert (R) +6.0 | Actual Reichert (R) +2.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 525LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll McCaskill (D) +3.0 | Actual McCaskill (D) +2.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 495LV | House (FL-5) General election | IVR | Poll Brown-Waite (R) +14.0 | Actual Brown-Waite (R) +19.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 611LV | House (CO-3) General election | IVR | Poll Salazar (D) +19.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +25.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 469LV | House (AR-2) General election | IVR | Poll Snyder (D) +21.0 | Actual Snyder (D) +21.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 27-29 | 774LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Cantwell (D) +13.0 | Actual Cantwell (D) +16.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 26 | 411LV | House (NY-26) General election | IVR | Poll Reynolds (R) +5.0 | Actual Reynolds (R) +4.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 23-25 | 563LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown (D) +20.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.3 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 23-25 | 507LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Feinstein (D) +26.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +24.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 23-25 | 563LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Strickland (D) +30.0 | Actual Strickland (D) +23.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 23-25 | 507LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +18.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 738LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Bachmann (R) +6.0 | Actual Bachmann (R) +8.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 613LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen (R) +3.0 | Actual Webb (D) +0.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 780LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Corker (R) +2.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 22-24 | 780LV | Governor (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bredesen (D) +37.0 | Actual Bredesen (D) +38.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 22-24 | 803LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm (D) +7.0 | Actual Granholm (D) +14.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 22-24 | 572LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Beebe (D) +20.0 | Actual Beebe (D) +14.9 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 22-24 | 803LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Stabenow (D) +7.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +15.7 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 22-24 | 524LV | House (WA-2) General election | IVR | Poll Larsen (D) +29.0 | Actual Larsen (D) +28.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 21-23 | 606LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Hatch (D) +1.0 | Actual Pawlenty (R) +1.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 21-23 | 466LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (R) +2.0 | Actual Davis (R) +8.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 21-23 | 630LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Talent (R) +3.0 | Actual McCaskill (D) +2.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 21-23 | 606LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Klobuchar (D) +16.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +20.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 623LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Patrick (D) +25.0 | Actual Patrick (D) +20.3 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 21-23 | 532LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry (R) +10.0 | Actual Perry (R) +9.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 21-23 | 472LV | Governor (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Henry (D) +32.0 | Actual Henry (D) +33.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 519LV | House (IN-9) General election | IVR | Poll Hill (D) +4.0 | Actual Hill (D) +4.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 634LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Baldacci (D) +8.0 | Actual Baldacci (D) +7.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 20-22 | 578LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich (D) +10.0 | Actual Blagojevich (D) +10.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 594LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Ritter (D) +18.0 | Actual Ritter (D) +16.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 20-22 | 581LV | House (CA-4) General election | IVR | Poll Doolittle (R) +10.0 | Actual Doolittle (R) +3.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 16-18 | 570LV | House (OH-6) General election | IVR | Poll Wilson (D) +32.0 | Actual Wilson (D) +24.2 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 16-18 | 419LV | House (NY-26) General election | IVR | Poll Reynolds (R) +3.0 | Actual Reynolds (R) +4.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 16-18 | 536LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Yarmuth (D) +1.0 | Actual Yarmuth (D) +2.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 16-18 | 425LV | House (FL-9) General election | IVR | Poll Bilirakis (R) +21.0 | Actual Bilirakis (R) +11.8 | Difference 9.2 |
| Oct 16-18 | 543LV | House (CO-5) General election | IVR | Poll Lamborn (R) +13.0 | Actual Lamborn (R) +19.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 16-18 | 404LV | House (AR-2) General election | IVR | Poll Snyder (D) +16.0 | Actual Snyder (D) +21.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| May 30-Jun 1 | 448LV | House (CA-50) Special election | IVR | Poll Bilbray (R) +2.0 | Actual Bilbray (R) +4.6 | Difference 2.6 |
2005
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5-7 | 804LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine (D) +5.0 | Actual Kaine (D) +5.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Nov 4-6 | 798LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine (D) +6.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 525LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine (D) +9.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 1.4 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 650LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Specter (R) +18.0 | Actual Specter (R) +10.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 549LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Lincoln (D) +10.0 | Actual Lincoln (D) +11.8 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 657LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 550LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +9.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 705LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +4.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 705LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Salazar (D) +4.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 636LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +8.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.6 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 519LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +0.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 622LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Murray (D) +6.0 | Actual Murray (D) +12.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 758LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Specter (R) +19.0 | Actual Specter (R) +10.6 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 813LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Voinovich (R) +28.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 29-31 | 616LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr (R) +5.0 | Actual Burr (R) +4.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 690LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bond (R) +19.0 | Actual Bond (R) +13.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 738LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Martinez (R) +1.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 767LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +21.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +19.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 644LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Lincoln (D) +13.0 | Actual Lincoln (D) +11.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 620LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Rossi (R) +6.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +0.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 689LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Blunt (R) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 622LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +4.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +7.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 766LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +4.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 29-31 | 816LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 620LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +8.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 694LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 742LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +5.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 767LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +9.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 646LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush (R) +9.8 | Difference 9.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 617LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley (D) +14.0 | Actual Easley (D) +12.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 28-30 | 626LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +6.0 | Actual Bush (R) +4.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 28-30 | 631LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bunning (R) +9.0 | Actual Bunning (R) +1.3 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 624LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Isakson (R) +16.0 | Actual Isakson (R) +17.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 28-30 | 622LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Salazar (D) +2.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 28-30 | 629LV | President (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +18.0 | Actual Bush (R) +14.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 662LV | President (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +30.0 | Actual Bush (R) +31.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 656LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Coburn (R) +8.0 | Actual Coburn (R) +11.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 28-30 | 671LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +3.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +3.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 28-30 | 636LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +21.0 | Actual Bush (R) +19.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 661LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush (R) +0.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 628LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +12.0 | Actual Bush (R) +16.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 28-30 | 599LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +15.0 | Actual Bush (R) +10.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 28-29 | 535LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush (R) +2.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 673LV | House (ME-2) General election | IVR | Poll Michaud (D) +13.0 | Actual Michaud (D) +18.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 652LV | House (ME-1) General election | IVR | Poll Allen (D) +16.0 | Actual Allen (D) +19.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 27-29 | 583LV | House (AR-2) General election | IVR | Poll Snyder (D) +24.0 | Actual Snyder (D) +16.3 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 586LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bayh (D) +27.0 | Actual Bayh (D) +24.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 589LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Daniels (R) +8.0 | Actual Daniels (R) +7.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 27-29 | 606LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +4.0 | Actual Bush (R) +8.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 27-29 | 794LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +12.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +6.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 27-29 | 1,008LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +8.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +9.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 607LV | President (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +13.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 589LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +19.0 | Actual Bush (R) +20.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 665LV | President (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +12.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 655LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Obama (D) +39.0 | Actual Obama (D) +42.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 27-29 | 625LV | House (WA-5) General election | IVR | Poll McMorris Rodgers (R) +17.0 | Actual McMorris Rodgers (R) +19.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 26-28 | 602LV | President (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +22.0 | Actual Bush (R) +22.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 26-28 | 656LV | House (OK-1) General election | IVR | Poll Sullivan (R) +26.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +22.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 25-28 | 357LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Kennedy (R) +18.0 | Actual Kennedy (R) +8.0 | Difference 10.0 |
| Oct 26-28 | 638LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Northup (R) +21.0 | Actual Northup (R) +22.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 26-28 | 661LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +40.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +35.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 26-28 | 628LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +18.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +18.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 25-27 | 651LV | President (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +23.0 | Actual Bush (R) +25.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 25-27 | 687LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +3.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +4.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 25-27 | 636LV | President (AL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +18.0 | Actual Bush (R) +25.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 25-27 | 594LV | President (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +13.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +20.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 24-26 | 664LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Reichert (R) +6.0 | Actual Reichert (R) +4.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 25-26 | 630LV | House (CO-3) General election | IVR | Poll Salazar (D) +3.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 23-25 | 618LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Murray (D) +14.0 | Actual Murray (D) +12.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 23-25 | 803LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Specter (R) +13.0 | Actual Specter (R) +10.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 23-25 | 818LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Voinovich (R) +26.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 23-25 | 675LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bond (R) +26.0 | Actual Bond (R) +13.3 | Difference 12.7 |
| Oct 23-25 | 573LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Brownback (R) +33.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +41.7 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 23-25 | 649LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Lincoln (D) +19.0 | Actual Lincoln (D) +11.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 23-25 | 618LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gregoire (D) +2.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +0.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 23-25 | 678LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Blunt (R) +8.0 | Actual Blunt (R) +3.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 23-25 | 618LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +6.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +7.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 23-25 | 803LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +8.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +2.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 23-25 | 831LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 23-25 | 680LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 23-25 | 743LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +9.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 23-25 | 649LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +6.0 | Actual Bush (R) +9.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 23-25 | 743LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +15.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +19.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 22-24 | 749LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +5.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 559LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll DeMint (R) +13.0 | Actual DeMint (R) +9.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 686LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr (R) +6.0 | Actual Burr (R) +4.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 738LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Castor (D) +3.0 | Actual Martinez (R) +1.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 22-24 | 694LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley (D) +18.0 | Actual Easley (D) +12.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 22-24 | 564LV | President (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +18.0 | Actual Bush (R) +17.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 22-24 | 694LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 23 | 600LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Kennedy (R) +17.0 | Actual Kennedy (R) +8.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 18-20 | 596LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +4.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 604LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Isakson (R) +16.0 | Actual Isakson (R) +17.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 18-20 | 596LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Coors (R) +4.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 18-20 | 627LV | President (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +30.0 | Actual Bush (R) +31.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 18-20 | 668LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +7.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +3.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 18-20 | 690LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +6.0 | Actual Bush (R) +0.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 609LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +17.0 | Actual Bush (R) +16.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 18-20 | 625LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Coburn (R) +6.0 | Actual Coburn (R) +11.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 17-19 | 597LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bayh (D) +32.0 | Actual Bayh (D) +24.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 17-19 | 602LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Daniels (R) +8.0 | Actual Daniels (R) +7.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 17-19 | 615LV | President (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +22.0 | Actual Bush (R) +14.3 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 17-19 | 660LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +6.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +9.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 17-19 | 629LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +22.0 | Actual Bush (R) +19.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 17-19 | 602LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +22.0 | Actual Bush (R) +20.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 17-19 | 616LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +11.0 | Actual Bush (R) +10.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 17-19 | 330LV | President (ME-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +9.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +5.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 17-19 | 330LV | President (ME-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +3.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +11.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 17-19 | 623LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bunning (R) +14.0 | Actual Bunning (R) +1.3 | Difference 12.7 |
| Oct 16-18 | 667LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Blunt (R) +6.0 | Actual Blunt (R) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 16-18 | 703LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +8.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +6.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 16-18 | 670LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +6.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 16-18 | 664LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +4.0 | Actual Bush (R) +8.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 16-18 | 698LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 16-18 | 698LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Voinovich (R) +24.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 16-18 | 667LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bond (R) +18.0 | Actual Bond (R) +13.3 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 16-18 | 585LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.6 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 15-17 | 664LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Reichert (R) +6.0 | Actual Reichert (R) +4.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 15-17 | 640LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Murray (D) +18.0 | Actual Murray (D) +12.2 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 15-17 | 608LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Specter (R) +7.0 | Actual Specter (R) +10.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 15-17 | 621LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr (R) +2.0 | Actual Burr (R) +4.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 15-17 | 596LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Martinez (R) +2.0 | Actual Martinez (R) +1.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 15-17 | 697LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +22.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +19.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 15-17 | 613LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Lincoln (D) +19.0 | Actual Lincoln (D) +11.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 15-17 | 634LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gregoire (D) +6.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +0.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 15-17 | 621LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley (D) +12.0 | Actual Easley (D) +12.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 15-17 | 634LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +7.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +7.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 15-17 | 619LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +6.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +2.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 15-17 | 627LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.4 | Difference 9.4 |
| Oct 15-17 | 601LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +5.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 15-17 | 617LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +9.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 15-17 | 703LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +10.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 14-16 | 656LV | House (OK-1) General election | IVR | Poll Sullivan (R) +23.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +22.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 11-13 | 661LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +30.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +35.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Feb 27-29 | 451LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +41.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Feb 27-29 | 573LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +37.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +44.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Feb 27-29 | 508LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +21.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +17.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Feb 29 | 302LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +4.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +5.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Feb 29 | 302LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +10.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +5.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Feb 26-28 | 371LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +42.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +34.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Feb 24-26 | 430LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +25.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +34.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Feb 23-25 | 354LV | President (RI) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +43.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +52.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Feb 21-23 | 573LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +35.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +44.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Feb 21-23 | 508LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +23.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +17.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Feb 20-22 | 451LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +36.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Feb 14-16 | 573LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +45.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +44.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Feb 13-15 | 302LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +31.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +5.4 | Difference 25.6 |
| Feb 13-15 | 371LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +55.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +34.6 | Difference 20.4 |
| Feb 13-15 | 517LV | House (KY-6) Special election | IVR | Poll Chandler (D) +8.0 | Actual Chandler (D) +12.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Feb 9 | 523LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +10.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +14.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Feb 7-9 | 600LV | House (KY-6) Special election | IVR | Poll Chandler (D) +6.0 | Actual Chandler (D) +12.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Feb 7-8 | 716LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +21.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +24.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Feb 7-8 | 523LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +10.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +14.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Jan 30-Feb 2 | 629LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Edwards (D) +17.0 | Actual Edwards (D) +15.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Jan 31-Feb 2 | 600LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +14.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Feb 1 | 350LV | President (OK) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clark (D) +2.0 | Actual Clark (D) +0.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Jan 30-Feb 1 | 891LV | President (MO) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +24.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +26.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Jan 30-Feb 1 | 400LV | President (AZ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +6.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +16.1 | Difference 10.1 |
| Jan 29-31 | 606LV | President (OK) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clark (D) +8.0 | Actual Clark (D) +0.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Jan 29-31 | 434LV | President (DE) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +32.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +39.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Jan 27-29 | 896LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +15.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +24.9 | Difference 9.9 |
| Jan 24-25 | 481LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +5.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Jan 23-25 | 481LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +4.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Jan 22 | 481LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Jan 13-15 | 428LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Edwards (D) +1.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Jan 5-7 | 612LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Kerry (D) +4.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +4.5 | Difference 0.5 |
2003
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 755LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Fletcher (R) +8.0 | Actual Fletcher (R) +10.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 755LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Fletcher (R) +7.0 | Actual Fletcher (R) +10.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 18-20 | 755LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Fletcher (R) +1.0 | Actual Fletcher (R) +10.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 5 | 294LV | Governor (CA) Special election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +12.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 4 | 294LV | Governor (CA) Special election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +15.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 3 | 294LV | Governor (CA) Special election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +20.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Sep 28-30 | 294LV | Governor (CA) Special election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +17.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Sep 19-22 | 789LV | Governor (CA) Special election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +7.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 10.1 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-4 | 792LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Nov 1-3 | 764LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Graham (R) +1.0 | Actual Graham (R) +10.2 | Difference 9.2 |
| Oct 31-Nov 3 | 958LV | Senate (MO) Special election | IVR | Poll Carnahan (D) +2.0 | Actual Talent (R) +1.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Nov 1-3 | 764LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Hodges (D) +6.0 | Actual Sanford (R) +5.8 | Difference 11.8 |
| Nov 1-3 | 730LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm (D) +6.0 | Actual Granholm (D) +4.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 563LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (D) +6.0 | Actual Davis (D) +4.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Nov 2 | 710LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Inhofe (R) +17.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Nov 2 | 710LV | Governor (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Henry (D) +4.0 | Actual Henry (D) +0.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 739LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Allard (R) +4.0 | Actual Allard (R) +4.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 797LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Ehrlich (R) +5.0 | Actual Ehrlich (R) +3.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 704LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Sebelius (D) +7.0 | Actual Sebelius (D) +7.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 683LV | Senate (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Cornyn (R) +8.0 | Actual Cornyn (R) +12.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 683LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry (R) +10.0 | Actual Perry (R) +17.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Lucas (D) +5.0 | Actual Lucas (D) +3.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 707LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Northup (R) +1.0 | Actual Northup (R) +3.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 29-31 | 710LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Inhofe (R) +17.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 723LV | Governor (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Henry (D) +2.0 | Actual Henry (D) +0.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 29-31 | 725LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Taft (R) +18.0 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 29-31 | 661LV | Governor (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Napolitano (D) +2.0 | Actual Napolitano (D) +1.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 28-30 | 528LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Durbin (D) +19.0 | Actual Durbin (D) +22.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 28-30 | 593LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Carcieri (R) +3.0 | Actual Carcieri (R) +9.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 28-30 | 567LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Pataki (R) +15.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 28-30 | 535LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich (D) +14.0 | Actual Blagojevich (D) +7.1 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 28-30 | 518LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +17.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +23.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 28-30 | 611LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Dole (R) +4.0 | Actual Dole (R) +8.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 28-30 | 705LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell (R) +37.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +29.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 614LV | Governor (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Vilsack (D) +14.0 | Actual Vilsack (D) +8.2 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 27-29 | 668LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Rendell (D) +19.0 | Actual Rendell (D) +9.0 | Difference 10.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 523LV | Governor (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Guinn (R) +35.0 | Actual Guinn (R) +46.2 | Difference 11.2 |
| Oct 27-29 | 732LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Lautenberg (D) +10.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 27-29 | 605LV | Senate (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Harkin (D) +22.0 | Actual Harkin (D) +10.4 | Difference 11.6 |
| Oct 26-28 | 726LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Alexander (R) +11.0 | Actual Alexander (R) +9.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 26-28 | 726LV | Governor (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bredesen (D) +4.0 | Actual Bredesen (D) +3.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 26-28 | 630LV | House (OK-1) General election | IVR | Poll Sullivan (R) +15.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +13.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 25-27 | 704LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Sebelius (D) +15.0 | Actual Sebelius (D) +7.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 25-27 | 563LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (D) +11.0 | Actual Davis (D) +4.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 764LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Graham (R) +1.0 | Actual Graham (R) +10.2 | Difference 9.2 |
| Oct 25-27 | 764LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Hodges (D) +3.0 | Actual Sanford (R) +5.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 25-27 | 730LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm (D) +13.0 | Actual Granholm (D) +4.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 25-27 | 797LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Townsend (D) +1.0 | Actual Ehrlich (R) +3.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 22-24 | 661LV | Governor (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Salmon (R) +1.0 | Actual Napolitano (D) +1.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 792LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 22-24 | 707LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Northup (R) +5.0 | Actual Northup (R) +3.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 21-23 | 739LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Allard (R) +2.0 | Actual Allard (R) +4.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 21-23 | 683LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry (R) +11.0 | Actual Perry (R) +17.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 21-23 | 593LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Carcieri (R) +2.0 | Actual Carcieri (R) +9.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 21-23 | 567LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Pataki (R) +15.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 21-23 | 535LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich (D) +12.0 | Actual Blagojevich (D) +7.1 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 21-23 | 528LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Durbin (D) +20.0 | Actual Durbin (D) +22.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 21-23 | 683LV | Senate (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Cornyn (R) +7.0 | Actual Cornyn (R) +12.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 21-23 | 611LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Dole (R) +6.0 | Actual Dole (R) +8.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 21-23 | 528LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Durbin (D) +19.0 | Actual Durbin (D) +22.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 20-22 | 614LV | Governor (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Vilsack (D) +14.0 | Actual Vilsack (D) +8.2 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 20-22 | 600LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Lautenberg (D) +11.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +9.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 20-22 | 605LV | Senate (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Harkin (D) +17.0 | Actual Harkin (D) +10.4 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 19-21 | 726LV | Governor (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bredesen (D) +6.0 | Actual Bredesen (D) +3.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 19-21 | 668LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Rendell (D) +18.0 | Actual Rendell (D) +9.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 19-21 | 726LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Alexander (R) +4.0 | Actual Alexander (R) +9.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 18-20 | 494LV | House (OK-2) General election | IVR | Poll Carson (D) +47.0 | Actual Carson (D) +48.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 18-20 | 630LV | House (OK-1) General election | IVR | Poll Sullivan (R) +28.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +13.5 | Difference 14.5 |
| Oct 18-20 | 764LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Graham (R) +9.0 | Actual Graham (R) +10.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 18-20 | 764LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Hodges (D) +5.0 | Actual Sanford (R) +5.8 | Difference 10.8 |
| Oct 18-20 | 730LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm (D) +13.0 | Actual Granholm (D) +4.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 18-20 | 797LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Ehrlich (R) +3.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 18-20 | 563LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (D) +11.0 | Actual Davis (D) +4.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 15-20 | 1,312LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Taft (R) +7.0 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 12.5 |
| Oct 18-20 | 518LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +9.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +23.6 | Difference 14.6 |
| Oct 15-17 | 707LV | House (KY-3) General election | IVR | Poll Northup (R) +8.0 | Actual Northup (R) +3.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 15-17 | 958LV | Senate (MO) Special election | IVR | Poll Carnahan (D) +3.0 | Actual Talent (R) +1.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 14-16 | 600LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Lucas (D) +11.0 | Actual Lucas (D) +3.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 14-16 | 683LV | Senate (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Cornyn (R) +12.0 | Actual Cornyn (R) +12.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 14-16 | 710LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Inhofe (R) +16.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +21.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 14-16 | 705LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell (R) +35.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +29.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 14-16 | 683LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry (R) +9.0 | Actual Perry (R) +17.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 14-16 | 593LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll York (D) +3.0 | Actual Carcieri (R) +9.5 | Difference 12.5 |
| Oct 14-16 | 710LV | Governor (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Largent (R) +5.0 | Actual Henry (D) +0.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 14-16 | 567LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Pataki (R) +16.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 0.1 |
2001
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-4 | 500LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Warner (D) +6.0 | Actual Warner (D) +5.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Nov 1-3 | 800LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll McGreevey (D) +14.0 | Actual McGreevey (D) +14.8 | Difference 0.8 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3-6 | 500LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson (D) +7.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +4.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Nov 3-6 | 500LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +4.0 | Actual Bush (R) +0.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Nov 3-5 | 500LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +11.0 | Actual Bush (R) +8.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 3-5 | 600LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Gore (D) +5.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Nov 3-5 | 500LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen (R) +10.0 | Actual Allen (R) +4.6 | Difference 5.4 |
| Nov 3-5 | 600LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Abraham (R) +6.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +1.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Nov 4 | 500LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley (D) +1.0 | Actual Easley (D) +5.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Nov 4 | 500LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +17.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Nov 1-2 | 500LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +28.0 | Actual Bush (R) +15.6 | Difference 12.4 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | House (TX-25) General election | IVR | Poll Bentsen (D) +20.0 | Actual Bentsen (D) +21.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | House (FL-8) General election | IVR | Poll Keller (R) +12.0 | Actual Keller (R) +1.6 | Difference 10.4 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | House (CA-49) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (D) +2.0 | Actual Davis (D) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 800LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Santorum (R) +16.0 | Actual Santorum (R) +6.9 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll DeWine (R) +19.0 | Actual DeWine (R) +24.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 800LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +0.0 | Actual Gore (D) +4.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 500LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +18.0 | Actual Bush (R) +15.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Nov 1-2 | 500LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll O'Bannon (D) +6.0 | Actual O'Bannon (D) +14.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 530LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Feinstein (D) +12.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +19.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 500LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +2.0 | Actual Gore (D) +5.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 500LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Locke (D) +15.0 | Actual Locke (D) +18.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +19.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 530LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +6.0 | Actual Gore (D) +11.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | House (FL-22) General election | IVR | Poll Bloom (D) +7.0 | Actual Shaw (R) +0.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gorton (R) +2.0 | Actual Cantwell (D) +0.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Ensign (R) +16.0 | Actual Ensign (R) +15.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 28-31 | 600LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson (D) +5.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +4.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 500LV | House (OH-1) General election | IVR | Poll Chabot (R) +18.0 | Actual Chabot (R) +8.4 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 28-30 | 500LV | Senate (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Chafee (R) +26.0 | Actual Chafee (R) +15.7 | Difference 10.3 |
| Oct 28-30 | 500LV | President (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +29.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 500LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +8.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.4 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 28-30 | 510LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +6.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 500LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Gore (D) +0.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 28-29 | 600LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley (D) +1.0 | Actual Easley (D) +5.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 28-29 | 600LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen (R) +7.0 | Actual Allen (R) +4.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 25-26 | 600LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Abraham (R) +2.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +1.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 25-26 | 500LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine (D) +8.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +3.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 25-26 | 500LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +4.0 | Actual Gore (D) +15.8 | Difference 11.8 |
| Oct 24-26 | 500LV | House (NV-1) General election | IVR | Poll Berkley (D) +8.0 | Actual Berkley (D) +7.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 24-26 | 500LV | House (KY-4) General election | IVR | Poll Lucas (D) +23.0 | Actual Lucas (D) +10.7 | Difference 12.3 |
| Oct 24-25 | 600LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 23-24 | 500LV | Senate (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Carper (D) +1.0 | Actual Carper (D) +11.8 | Difference 10.8 |
| Oct 23-24 | 500LV | Governor (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Minner (D) +14.0 | Actual Minner (D) +19.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 22-24 | 800LV | House (PA-4) General election | IVR | Poll Hart (R) +7.0 | Actual Hart (R) +18.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 500LV | House (IN-9) General election | IVR | Poll Hill (D) +14.0 | Actual Hill (D) +10.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 22-24 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +13.0 | Actual Bush (R) +8.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 23-24 | 500LV | President (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +4.0 | Actual Gore (D) +13.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 500LV | House (OH-12) General election | IVR | Poll Tiberi (R) +15.0 | Actual Tiberi (R) +9.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 21-23 | 500LV | House (FL-15) General election | IVR | Poll Weldon (R) +16.0 | Actual Weldon (R) +19.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 21-23 | 500LV | President (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +13.0 | Actual Bush (R) +16.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | President (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +11.0 | Actual Gore (D) +16.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | House (WA-8) General election | IVR | Poll Dunn (R) +18.0 | Actual Dunn (R) +26.6 | Difference 8.6 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | House (WA-2) General election | IVR | Poll Larsen (D) +6.0 | Actual Larsen (D) +4.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | House (WA-1) General election | IVR | Poll Inslee (D) +7.0 | Actual Inslee (D) +11.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Mar 3-5 | 590LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +34.0 | Actual Bush (R) +21.0 | Difference 13.0 |
| Mar 3-5 | 510LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +43.0 | Actual Gore (D) +48.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Mar 3-5 | 624LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +37.0 | Actual Bush (R) +39.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Mar 3-5 | 507LV | President (CT) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +5.0 | Actual McCain (R) +2.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Mar 3-5 | 493LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +21.0 | Actual Gore (D) +13.9 | Difference 7.1 |
| Mar 3-5 | 476LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +59.0 | Actual Gore (D) +67.6 | Difference 8.6 |
| Feb 25-27 | 500LV | President (VA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +11.0 | Actual Bush (R) +8.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Feb 18-20 | 500LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +5.0 | Actual McCain (R) +7.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Feb 15-17 | 500LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush (R) +11.5 | Difference 11.5 |
| Jan 28-30 | 881LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain (R) +6.0 | Actual McCain (R) +18.2 | Difference 12.2 |
| Jan 28-30 | 619LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Gore (D) +15.0 | Actual Gore (D) +4.1 | Difference 10.9 |
1998
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 400LV | House (PA-10) General election | IVR | Poll Casey (D) +1.0 | Actual Sherwood (R) +0.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 400LV | House (OR-1) General election | IVR | Poll Bordonaro (R) +4.0 | Actual Wu (D) +3.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 700LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Edwards (D) +2.0 | Actual Edwards (D) +4.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 700LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bunning (R) +7.0 | Actual Bunning (R) +0.6 | Difference 6.4 |
| Nov 1 | 800LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer (D) +10.0 | Actual Boxer (D) +10.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Nov 1 | 800LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Davis (D) +23.0 | Actual Davis (D) +19.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 31 | 500LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll King (I) +41.0 | Actual King (I) +39.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Brownback (R) +35.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +33.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Cellucci (R) +4.0 | Actual Cellucci (R) +3.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Graves (R) +53.0 | Actual Graves (R) +50.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 25-27 | 500LV | House (NC-2) General election | IVR | Poll Etheridge (D) +13.0 | Actual Etheridge (D) +15.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bond (R) +13.0 | Actual Bond (R) +8.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 24-26 | 500LV | House (NC-4) General election | IVR | Poll Price (D) +13.0 | Actual Price (D) +15.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Almond (R) +1.0 | Actual Almond (R) +8.8 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush (R) +12.0 | Actual Bush (R) +10.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | House (KS-4) General election | IVR | Poll Tiahrt (R) +16.0 | Actual Tiahrt (R) +19.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 20-22 | 500LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Schumer (D) +5.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +10.5 | Difference 5.5 |
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