UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B+

Tarrance Group

Polls analyzed	31
Races called correctly	84%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Tarrance Group?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-26	600LV	Senate (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Peters +1.3	Actual Peters +1.7	Difference 0.4
Oct 13-15	400LV	House (PA-10) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perry +4.0	Actual Perry +6.6	Difference 2.6

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	605LV	Senate (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Stabenow +7.0	Actual Stabenow +6.5	Difference 0.5

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Mar 2-5	450LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +7.0	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 11.7
Mar 2-5	449LV	President (FL) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +38.0	Actual Clinton +31.2	Difference 6.8
Feb 29-Mar 2	800LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +5.0	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 13.7

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22	800LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ige +3.0	Actual Ige +12.4	Difference 9.4
Oct 18-20	400LV	House (KS-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Jenkins +12.0	Actual Jenkins +18.4	Difference 6.4
Oct 16	800LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ige +2.0	Actual Ige +12.4	Difference 10.4
Oct 13-16	500LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ducey +7.0	Actual Ducey +11.8	Difference 4.8

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-18	470LV	House (CA-52) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bilbray +4.0	Actual Peters +2.4	Difference 6.4
Jan 17-18	600LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Romney +7.0	Actual Gingrich +12.6	Difference 19.6

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-20	350LV	House (NM-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pearce +9.0	Actual Pearce +10.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 18-19	300LV	House (TN-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fincher +15.0	Actual Fincher +20.2	Difference 5.2
Oct 18-19	300LV	House (MS-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Palazzo +2.0	Actual Palazzo +5.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 17-19	600LV	Senate (CA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Boxer +10.0	Difference 10.0
Oct 18-19	300LV	House (IA-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Miller-Meeks +1.0	Actual Loebsack +5.1	Difference 6.1
Oct 17-18	600LV	Governor (CA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Brown +12.9	Difference 12.9
Oct 11-12	304LV	House (TN-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fincher +11.0	Actual Fincher +20.2	Difference 9.2

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-23	300LV	House (IA-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Latham +22.0	Actual Latham +21.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 15-16	300LV	House (FL-16) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rooney +26.0	Actual Rooney +20.2	Difference 5.8

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-28	500LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Feingold +5.0	Actual Feingold +11.2	Difference 6.2

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3	400LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allard +6.0	Actual Allard +4.9	Difference 1.1
Oct 30-31	300LV	House (CO-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Beauprez +2.0	Actual Beauprez +0.1	Difference 1.9
Oct 29-30	300LV	House (NH-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bass +15.0	Actual Bass +16.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 28	500LV	Governor (CA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davis +3.0	Actual Davis +4.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 23-24	300LV	House (UT-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Matheson +1.0	Actual Matheson +0.7	Difference 0.3
Oct 22-23	402LV	House (GA-12) General election	Live Phone	Poll Burns +15.0	Actual Burns +10.4	Difference 4.6

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 2	450LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dayton +1.0	Actual Dayton +5.5	Difference 4.5
Oct 31-Nov 1	500LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Franks +4.0	Actual Corzine +3.0	Difference 7.0

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-26	600LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +12.0	Actual Bush +10.5	Difference 1.5

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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