UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A+

The New York Times/Siena College

Polls analyzed	95
Races called correctly	75%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from The New York Times/Siena College?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-27	604LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kemp +5.0	Actual Kemp +7.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 24-27	604LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warnock +3.0	Actual Warnock +1.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 24-26	620LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shapiro +13.0	Actual Shapiro +14.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 24-26	604LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Hobbs +0.7	Difference 0.7
Oct 24-26	620LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fetterman +5.0	Actual Fetterman +4.9	Difference 0.1
Oct 24-26	604LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kelly +6.0	Actual Kelly +4.9	Difference 1.1
Oct 20-24	398LV	House (NM-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Vasquez +1.0	Actual Vasquez +0.7	Difference 0.3
Oct 19-24	431LV	House (KS-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davids +14.0	Actual Davids +12.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 19-24	885LV	Governor (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lombardo +4.0	Actual Lombardo +1.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 19-24	885LV	Senate (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Cortez Masto +0.8	Difference 0.8
Oct 19-21	399LV	House (NV-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Titus +5.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 19-20	415LV	House (PA-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cartwright +6.0	Actual Cartwright +2.4	Difference 3.6

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-31	1,862LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +6.0	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 4.8
Oct 27-31	1,451LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +3.0	Actual Trump +3.4	Difference 6.4
Oct 26-30	1,253LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +11.0	Actual Biden +0.6	Difference 10.4
Oct 26-30	1,252LV	President (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +6.0	Actual Biden +0.3	Difference 5.7
Oct 26-30	1,252LV	Senate (AZ) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Kelly +7.0	Actual Kelly +2.3	Difference 4.7
Oct 23-27	1,034LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +3.0	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 4.4
Oct 23-27	1,034LV	Governor (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cooper +9.0	Actual Cooper +4.5	Difference 4.5
Oct 23-27	1,034LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cunningham +3.0	Actual Tillis +1.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 23-26	809LV	President (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +6.0	Actual Biden +2.4	Difference 3.6
Oct 23-26	856LV	President (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +8.0	Actual Biden +2.8	Difference 5.2
Oct 23-26	856LV	Senate (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Peters +8.0	Actual Peters +1.7	Difference 6.3
Oct 20-25	802LV	Senate (TX) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cornyn +10.0	Actual Cornyn +9.6	Difference 0.4
Oct 20-25	802LV	President (TX) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Trump +5.6	Difference 1.6
Oct 18-20	758LV	Senate (MT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Daines +3.0	Actual Daines +10.0	Difference 7.0
Oct 18-20	755LV	Senate (KS) General election	Live Phone	Poll Marshall +4.0	Actual Marshall +11.4	Difference 7.4
Oct 18-20	753LV	Senate (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ernst +1.0	Actual Ernst +6.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 18-20	755LV	President (KS) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +7.0	Actual Trump +14.7	Difference 7.7
Oct 18-20	753LV	President (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +3.0	Actual Trump +8.2	Difference 11.2
Oct 18-20	758LV	President (MT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +6.0	Actual Trump +16.4	Difference 10.4
Oct 18-20	758LV	House (MT-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rosendale +4.0	Actual Rosendale +12.8	Difference 8.8
Oct 18-20	758LV	Governor (MT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gianforte +4.0	Actual Gianforte +12.9	Difference 8.9
Oct 13-19	759LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Biden +0.2	Difference 0.2
Oct 13-19	759LV	Senate (GA) Special jungle primary	Live Phone	Poll Warnock +9.0	Actual Warnock +7.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 13-19	759LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Perdue +1.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 15-18	987LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +9.0	Actual Biden +4.5	Difference 4.5
Jan 20-23	584LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders +7.0	Actual Sanders +3.4	Difference 3.6

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-4	506LV	House (NY-22) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tenney +0.9	Actual Brindisi +1.8	Difference 2.7
Nov 1-4	505LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Delgado +1.7	Actual Delgado +5.2	Difference 3.5
Nov 1-4	438LV	House (KY-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Barr +0.4	Actual Barr +3.2	Difference 2.8
Oct 30-Nov 4	477LV	House (WA-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Schrier +2.8	Actual Schrier +4.8	Difference 2.0
Oct 30-Nov 4	500LV	House (VA-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Brat +1.8	Actual Spanberger +1.9	Difference 3.8
Oct 31-Nov 4	447LV	House (MI-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Slotkin +6.6	Actual Slotkin +3.8	Difference 2.8
Oct 31-Nov 4	428LV	House (IL-14) General election	Live Phone	Poll Underwood +5.2	Actual Underwood +5.0	Difference 0.2
Oct 31-Nov 4	423LV	House (IA-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll King +4.8	Actual King +3.3	Difference 1.4
Oct 29-Nov 4	477LV	House (TX-32) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allred +4.0	Actual Allred +6.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 28-Nov 4	421LV	House (GA-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll McBath +2.1	Actual McBath +1.0	Difference 1.1
Oct 29-Nov 4	491LV	House (CA-48) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rouda +1.7	Actual Rouda +7.1	Difference 5.4
Oct 26-Nov 1	499LV	House (CA-45) General election	Live Phone	Poll Porter +1.3	Actual Porter +4.1	Difference 2.8
Oct 28-31	503LV	House (NJ-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Malinowski +7.9	Actual Malinowski +5.0	Difference 2.9
Oct 28-31	452LV	House (IA-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Finkenauer +6.5	Actual Finkenauer +5.1	Difference 1.5
Oct 27-30	501LV	House (KS-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davis +4.5	Actual Watkins +0.8	Difference 5.3
Oct 26-29	502LV	House (PA-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fitzpatrick +1.3	Actual Fitzpatrick +2.5	Difference 1.2
Oct 24-29	501LV	House (NY-27) General election	Live Phone	Poll Collins +4.4	Actual Collins +0.4	Difference 4.0
Oct 25-28	504LV	House (CA-25) General election	Live Phone	Poll Knight +4.4	Actual Hill +8.7	Difference 13.2
Oct 25-27	504LV	House (IA-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Axne +2.2	Actual Axne +2.2	Difference 0.0
Oct 23-27	495LV	House (NY-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Donovan +3.3	Actual Rose +6.4	Difference 9.8
Oct 23-27	737LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Nelson +3.5	Actual Scott +0.1	Difference 3.7
Oct 23-27	737LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillum +4.4	Actual DeSantis +0.4	Difference 4.8
Oct 23-26	498LV	House (PA-10) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perry +1.6	Actual Perry +2.6	Difference 1.1
Oct 24-26	526LV	House (UT-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll McAdams +0.3	Actual McAdams +0.3	Difference 0.1
Oct 20-26	497LV	House (IL-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casten +1.2	Actual Casten +7.2	Difference 5.9
Oct 21-25	508LV	House (NJ-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll MacArthur +0.6	Actual Kim +1.3	Difference 1.9
Oct 21-25	501LV	House (IL-13) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davis +5.1	Actual Davis +0.8	Difference 4.4
Oct 21-25	501LV	House (CA-10) General election	Live Phone	Poll Harder +2.4	Actual Harder +4.5	Difference 2.1
Oct 19-25	499LV	House (TX-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Culberson +0.9	Actual Fletcher +5.1	Difference 5.9
Oct 19-24	499LV	House (FL-26) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mucarsel-Powell +0.9	Actual Mucarsel-Powell +1.7	Difference 0.9
Oct 19-24	500LV	House (CA-49) General election	Live Phone	Poll Levin +14.7	Actual Levin +12.8	Difference 1.9
Oct 20-24	492LV	House (OH-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chabot +8.7	Actual Chabot +4.4	Difference 4.3
Oct 19-23	522LV	House (NM-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Herrell +0.1	Actual Torres Small +1.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 18-23	496LV	House (CA-39) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cisneros +1.0	Actual Cisneros +3.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 18-22	508LV	House (VA-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Taylor +2.8	Actual Luria +2.2	Difference 5.0
Oct 16-22	501LV	House (VA-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cockburn +1.0	Actual Riggleman +6.5	Difference 7.6
Oct 18-22	502LV	House (IL-12) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bost +8.5	Actual Bost +6.2	Difference 2.3
Oct 16-19	499LV	House (FL-15) General election	Live Phone	Poll Spano +0.7	Actual Spano +6.0	Difference 5.4
Oct 14-19	497LV	House (WA-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Herrera Beutler +7.0	Actual Herrera Beutler +5.3	Difference 1.6
Oct 15-19	542LV	House (FL-27) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shalala +7.2	Actual Shalala +6.0	Difference 1.2
Oct 15-19	606LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll McSally +1.8	Actual Sinema +2.3	Difference 4.1
Oct 16-19	506LV	House (PA-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cartwright +12.6	Actual Cartwright +9.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 14-18	490LV	House (WV-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Miller +4.6	Actual Miller +12.7	Difference 8.1
Oct 15-18	501LV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Golden +0.1	Actual Golden +1.2	Difference 1.1
Oct 13-18	488LV	House (TX-23) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hurd +15.5	Actual Hurd +0.4	Difference 15.0
Oct 14-17	503LV	House (KS-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davids +9.0	Actual Davids +9.7	Difference 0.6

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 2	985LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Northam +3.0	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 5.9

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-6	800LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Trump +3.7	Difference 3.7
Nov 4-6	800LV	Governor (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cooper +1.0	Actual Cooper +0.2	Difference 0.8
Nov 4-6	800LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Burr +1.0	Actual Burr +5.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 25-27	815LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 2.8
Oct 25-27	815LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +3.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 25-27	815LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rubio +9.0	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 1.3
Oct 23-25	824LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 7.7
Oct 23-25	824LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McGinty +3.0	Actual Toomey +1.4	Difference 4.4
Oct 20-23	792LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Trump +3.7	Difference 10.7
Oct 20-23	792LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +8.0	Actual Trump +3.7	Difference 11.7
Oct 20-23	792LV	Governor (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cooper +6.0	Actual Cooper +0.2	Difference 5.8
Oct 20-23	792LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ross +1.0	Actual Burr +5.7	Difference 6.7

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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