A/B
| Polls analyzed | 39 |
| Races called correctly | 94% |
| Most recent cycle | 2012 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2012
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 4 | 901LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +3.8 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 31-Nov 4 | 901LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +1.5 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 25-30 | 1,182LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +5.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 25-30 | 1,182LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 18-23 | 1,015LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 18-23 | 1,015LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +4.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Feb 16-26 | 524LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Santorum (R) +11.0 | Actual Romney (R) +1.0 | Difference 12.0 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27-31 | 930LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +4.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 27-31 | 930LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Portman (R) +21.0 | Actual Portman (R) +17.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 14-18 | 839LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +2.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +2.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 14-18 | 839LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Portman (R) +19.0 | Actual Portman (R) +17.4 | Difference 1.6 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,221LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 18-22 | 886LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Feb 28-Mar 2 | 319LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Feb 28-Mar 2 | 613LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Feb 21-24 | 312LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +35.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 12.8 |
| Feb 21-24 | 529LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 0.7 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-5 | 1,008LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Strickland (D) +22.0 | Actual Strickland (D) +23.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Nov 1-5 | 1,008LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +12.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.3 | Difference 0.3 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27-31 | 819LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 27-31 | 823LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +30.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 11-17 | 600LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +27.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 11-17 | 757LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 4.1 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 666LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +18.7 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 10-20 | 471LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +16.0 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 3.5 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-5 | 1,179LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll DeWine (R) +28.9 | Actual DeWine (R) +24.1 | Difference 4.8 |
| Nov 1-5 | 1,273LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 18-25 | 608LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll DeWine (R) +25.0 | Actual DeWine (R) +24.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 18-25 | 666LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +8.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Mar 1-5 | 373LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +47.0 | Actual Gore (D) +48.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Mar 1-5 | 407LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +25.0 | Actual Bush (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Feb 23-27 | 320LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +17.0 | Actual Bush (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Feb 23-27 | 320LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +47.0 | Actual Gore (D) +48.9 | Difference 1.9 |
1998
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22-26 | 708LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +16.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 10.6 |
| Oct 26 | 1,196LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +11.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 26 | 1,196LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +24.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 11.1 |
| Oct 22-26 | 733LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +28.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 15.1 |
| Oct 8-18 | 540LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +28.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 15.1 |
| Oct 8-18 | 540LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +15.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 9.6 |
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