Polls analyzed | 39 |
Races called correctly | 94% |
Most recent cycle | 2012 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)?
2012
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 31-Nov 4 | 901LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +3.8 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 2.2 |
Oct 31-Nov 4 | 901LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +1.5 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 1.5 |
Oct 25-30 | 1,182LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +5.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 25-30 | 1,182LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 18-23 | 1,015LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 18-23 | 1,015LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +4.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Feb 16-26 | 524LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Santorum (R) +11.0 | Actual Romney (R) +1.0 | Difference 12.0 |
2010
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-31 | 930LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +4.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Oct 27-31 | 930LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Portman (R) +21.0 | Actual Portman (R) +17.4 | Difference 3.6 |
Oct 14-18 | 839LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +2.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +2.0 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 14-18 | 839LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Portman (R) +19.0 | Actual Portman (R) +17.4 | Difference 1.6 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,221LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.4 |
Oct 18-22 | 886LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Feb 28-Mar 2 | 319LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +29.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 6.8 |
Feb 28-Mar 2 | 613LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 0.3 |
Feb 21-24 | 312LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +35.0 | Actual McCain (R) +22.2 | Difference 12.8 |
Feb 21-24 | 529LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +8.7 | Difference 0.7 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-5 | 1,008LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Strickland (D) +22.0 | Actual Strickland (D) +23.9 | Difference 1.9 |
Nov 1-5 | 1,008LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +12.0 | Actual Brown (D) +12.3 | Difference 0.3 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-31 | 819LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 1.1 |
Oct 27-31 | 823LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +30.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 2.3 |
Oct 11-17 | 600LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +27.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +27.7 | Difference 0.7 |
Oct 11-17 | 757LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.1 | Difference 4.1 |
2002
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1 | 666LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +18.7 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 0.8 |
Oct 10-20 | 471LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +16.0 | Actual Taft (R) +19.5 | Difference 3.5 |
2000
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-5 | 1,179LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll DeWine (R) +28.9 | Actual DeWine (R) +24.1 | Difference 4.8 |
Nov 1-5 | 1,273LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 6.5 |
Oct 18-25 | 608LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll DeWine (R) +25.0 | Actual DeWine (R) +24.1 | Difference 0.9 |
Oct 18-25 | 666LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +8.0 | Actual Bush (R) +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
Mar 1-5 | 373LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +47.0 | Actual Gore (D) +48.9 | Difference 1.9 |
Mar 1-5 | 407LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +25.0 | Actual Bush (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Feb 23-27 | 320LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +17.0 | Actual Bush (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Feb 23-27 | 320LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +47.0 | Actual Gore (D) +48.9 | Difference 1.9 |
1998
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22-26 | 708LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +16.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 10.6 |
Oct 26 | 1,196LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +11.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 26 | 1,196LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +24.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 11.1 |
Oct 22-26 | 733LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +28.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 15.1 |
Oct 8-18 | 540LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Voinovich (R) +28.0 | Actual Voinovich (R) +12.9 | Difference 15.1 |
Oct 8-18 | 540LV | Governor (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Taft (R) +15.0 | Actual Taft (R) +5.4 | Difference 9.6 |
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