UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A-

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion

Polls analyzed	30
Races called correctly	82%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 18-28	1,300LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	Online	Poll Warnock +5.0	Actual Warnock +2.8	Difference 2.2
Oct 18-25	1,000LV	Governor (MA) General election	Online	Poll Healey +27.0	Actual Healey +29.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 14-25	600LV	Governor (NH) General election	Online	Poll Sununu +16.0	Actual Sununu +15.6	Difference 0.4
Oct 14-25	600LV	Senate (NH) General election	Online	Poll Hassan +10.0	Actual Hassan +9.1	Difference 0.9

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-26	911LV	Senate (NC) General election	Online	Poll Cunningham +4.0	Actual Tillis +1.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 20-26	911LV	Governor (NC) General election	Online	Poll Cooper +12.0	Actual Cooper +4.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 20-26	873LV	Senate (TX) General election	Online	Poll Cornyn +5.0	Actual Cornyn +9.6	Difference 4.6
Oct 20-26	873LV	President (TX) General election	Online	Poll Trump +1.0	Actual Trump +5.6	Difference 4.6
Oct 20-26	911LV	President (NC) General election	Online	Poll Even	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 16-26	757LV	Governor (NH) General election	Online	Poll Sununu +23.0	Actual Sununu +31.8	Difference 8.8
Oct 16-26	757LV	Senate (NH) General election	Online	Poll Shaheen +19.0	Actual Shaheen +15.7	Difference 3.3
Oct 16-26	757LV	President (NH) General election	Online	Poll Biden +10.0	Actual Biden +7.4	Difference 2.6
Feb 12-20	450LV	President (CA) Democratic primary	Online	Poll Sanders +11.0	Actual Sanders +8.1	Difference 2.9
Feb 12-18	600LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Online	Poll Sanders +3.0	Actual Biden +4.7	Difference 7.7
Feb 12-18	400LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Online	Poll Biden +2.0	Actual Biden +28.9	Difference 26.9
Feb 12-18	450LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Online	Poll Sanders +7.0	Actual Biden +19.0	Difference 26.0
Feb 4-7	440LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Online	Poll Sanders +8.0	Actual Sanders +1.3	Difference 6.7

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 2	695LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +1.0	Actual Clinton +0.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 28-Nov 2	695LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Clinton +0.4	Difference 0.4
Oct 28-Nov 2	695LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hassan +1.0	Actual Hassan +0.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 28-Nov 2	695LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sununu +4.0	Actual Sununu +2.3	Difference 1.7
Feb 5-7	464LV	President (NH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +24.0	Actual Trump +19.5	Difference 4.5
Feb 5-7	407LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders +16.0	Actual Sanders +22.5	Difference 6.5
Feb 2-4	434LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders +15.0	Actual Sanders +22.5	Difference 7.5
Feb 2-4	500LV	President (NH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +26.0	Actual Trump +19.5	Difference 6.5

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-25	601LV	Governor (MA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Baker +4.0	Actual Baker +1.9	Difference 2.1
Oct 15-21	643LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hassan +4.0	Actual Hassan +5.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 15-21	643LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen +3.0	Actual Shaheen +3.3	Difference 0.3

2013

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jun 15-19	312LV	Senate (MA) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Markey +20.0	Actual Markey +10.2	Difference 9.8

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 3	800LV	President (MA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +20.0	Actual Obama +23.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 31-Nov 3	800LV	Senate (MA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Brown +1.0	Actual Warren +7.6	Difference 8.6

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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