UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs

Polls analyzed	10
Races called correctly	50%
Most recent cycle	2010
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2010

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-25	751LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dayton +12.0	Actual Dayton +0.4	Difference 11.6

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-28	418LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Franken +4.0	Actual Franken +0.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 24-28	451LV	President (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +19.0	Actual Obama +10.3	Difference 8.7
Oct 21-23	430LV	House (MN-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tinklenberg +2.0	Actual Bachmann +3.0	Difference 5.0
Jan 18-27	317RV	President (MN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +19.0	Actual McCain +3.6	Difference 15.4
Jan 18-27	478RV	President (MN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Obama +34.4	Difference 41.4

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-28	663LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Klobuchar +22.0	Actual Klobuchar +20.1	Difference 1.9
Oct 23-28	663LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hatch +6.0	Actual Pawlenty +1.0	Difference 7.0

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-26	690LV	President (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Kerry +3.5	Difference 6.5
Oct 14-19	623LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +1.0	Actual Kerry +0.4	Difference 1.4

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

Send us feedback.