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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Read more Download the data See the latest polls

University of North Carolina

Pollsters with a relatively small number of polls now receive a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade.

B/C

Polls analyzed	2
Races called correctly	50%
Most recent cycle	2004
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

How accurate are the polls from University of North Carolina?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2004

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 11-21	493RV	House (NC-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Keever (D) +2.3	Actual Taylor (R) +9.8	Difference 12.1

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-31	560RV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dole (R) +7.0	Actual Dole (R) +8.6	Difference 1.6

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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