UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

Polls analyzed	8
Races called correctly	88%
Most recent cycle	2021
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2021

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 9-21	722LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McAuliffe +3.0	Actual Youngkin +1.9	Difference 4.9

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 13-22	709LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warner +17.0	Actual Warner +12.1	Difference 4.9
Oct 13-22	709LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +12.0	Actual Biden +10.2	Difference 1.8

2009

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-25	625LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McDonnell +18.0	Actual McDonnell +17.4	Difference 0.6

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	817LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warner +34.0	Actual Warner +31.3	Difference 2.7
Oct 20-22	817LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +11.0	Actual Obama +6.3	Difference 4.7

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-24	596LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allen +15.0	Actual Allen +4.6	Difference 10.4
Oct 18-24	596LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +14.0	Actual Bush +8.0	Difference 6.0

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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