B/C
| Polls analyzed | 15 |
| Races called correctly | 80% |
| Most recent cycle | 2014 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from Ward Research/The Honolulu Star-Advertiser?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2014
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11-18 | 354LV | House (HI-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Takai (D) +3.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 11-18 | 605LV | Governor (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ige (D) +12.0 | Actual Ige (D) +12.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 11-18 | 605LV | Senate (HI) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Schatz (D) +51.0 | Actual Schatz (D) +42.1 | Difference 8.9 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15-22 | 410LV | House (HI-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gabbard (D) +65.0 | Actual Gabbard (D) +61.1 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 15-22 | 376LV | House (HI-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hanabusa (D) +11.0 | Actual Hanabusa (D) +9.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 15-22 | 786LV | Senate (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hirono (D) +22.0 | Actual Hirono (D) +25.2 | Difference 3.2 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12-19 | 192LV | House (HI-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hirono (D) +61.0 | Actual Hirono (D) +46.9 | Difference 14.1 |
| Oct 12-19 | 608LV | Governor (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Abercrombie (D) +8.0 | Actual Abercrombie (D) +17.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 12-19 | 399LV | House (HI-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Djou (R) +3.0 | Actual Hanabusa (D) +6.5 | Difference 9.5 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13-18 | 600LV | President (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Kerry (D) +8.7 | Difference 8.7 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26-30 | 750LV | Governor (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lingle (R) +1.0 | Actual Lingle (R) +4.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 19-23 | 750LV | Governor (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lingle (R) +4.0 | Actual Lingle (R) +4.5 | Difference 0.5 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19-24 | 261LV | President (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +19.0 | Actual Gore (D) +18.3 | Difference 0.7 |
1998
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | 480LV | Governor (HI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lingle (R) +8.0 | Actual Cayetano (D) +1.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Oct 22 | 272LV | House (HI-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Abercrombie (D) +15.0 | Actual Abercrombie (D) +25.2 | Difference 10.2 |
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