UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Ward Research

Polls analyzed	15
Races called correctly	80%
Most recent cycle	2014
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Ward Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2014

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 11-18	354LV	House (HI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Takai +3.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 11-18	605LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ige +12.0	Actual Ige +12.4	Difference 0.4
Oct 11-18	605LV	Senate (HI) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Schatz +51.0	Actual Schatz +42.1	Difference 8.9

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-22	410LV	House (HI-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gabbard +65.0	Actual Gabbard +61.1	Difference 3.9
Oct 15-22	376LV	House (HI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hanabusa +11.0	Actual Hanabusa +9.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 15-22	786LV	Senate (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hirono +22.0	Actual Hirono +25.2	Difference 3.2

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 12-19	192LV	House (HI-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hirono +61.0	Actual Hirono +46.9	Difference 14.1
Oct 12-19	608LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Abercrombie +8.0	Actual Abercrombie +17.1	Difference 9.1
Oct 12-19	399LV	House (HI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Djou +3.0	Actual Hanabusa +6.5	Difference 9.5

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 13-18	600LV	President (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Kerry +8.7	Difference 8.7

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-30	750LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lingle +1.0	Actual Lingle +4.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 19-23	750LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lingle +4.0	Actual Lingle +4.5	Difference 0.5

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-24	261LV	President (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +19.0	Actual Gore +18.3	Difference 0.7

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22	480LV	Governor (HI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lingle +8.0	Actual Cayetano +1.3	Difference 9.3
Oct 22	272LV	House (HI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Abercrombie +15.0	Actual Abercrombie +25.2	Difference 10.2

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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