UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

WPA Intelligence

Also known as Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research or Wilson Research Strategies

Polls analyzed	18
Races called correctly	69%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Wilson Research Strategies

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from WPA Intelligence?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-31	500LV	Governor (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Stitt +13.0	Actual Stitt +13.7	Difference 0.7

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Feb 11-13	413LV	President (NV) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders +7.0	Actual Sanders +16.5	Difference 9.5

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-24	401LV	House (IA-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll King +18.0	Actual King +3.3	Difference 14.7
Oct 17-20	401LV	House (TX-21) General election	Live Phone	Poll Roy +12.0	Actual Roy +2.6	Difference 9.4

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-20	400LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Feingold +3.0	Actual Johnson +3.4	Difference 6.4

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 24-25	500LV	Senate (LA) Runoff	Live Phone	Poll Cassidy +24.0	Actual Cassidy +11.9	Difference 12.1
Oct 26-27	504LV	Governor (MD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hogan +5.0	Actual Hogan +3.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 19-20	500LV	Governor (MD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Brown +1.0	Actual Hogan +3.8	Difference 4.8

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-21	500LV	Senate (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Portman +11.0	Actual Portman +17.4	Difference 6.4
Oct 17-18	300LV	House (MO-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Hartzler +5.3	Difference 5.3
Oct 13-14	800LV	Senate (CA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fiorina +3.0	Actual Boxer +10.0	Difference 13.0
Oct 13-14	800LV	Governor (CA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Whitman +1.0	Actual Brown +12.9	Difference 13.9

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-24	500LV	Senate (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Coburn +3.0	Actual Coburn +11.5	Difference 8.5
Oct 22-24	500LV	President (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +33.0	Actual Bush +31.1	Difference 1.9
Oct 15-17	500LV	Senate (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Coburn +3.0	Actual Coburn +11.5	Difference 8.5
Oct 15-17	500LV	President (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +30.0	Actual Bush +31.1	Difference 1.1
Jan 28	300LV	President (OK) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clark +5.0	Actual Clark +0.4	Difference 4.6

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18	300LV	House (ND-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pomeroy +9.0	Actual Pomeroy +15.1	Difference 6.1

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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