What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State

On March 17, Republicans in North Carolina’s state legislature asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review the state’s redistricting process, arguing that state courts overstepped their prerogatives when in February a three-judge panel rejected a map passed by the legislature on the grounds that it was overly advantageous to Republicans and established a new congressional map for the 2022 election.

The U.S. Supreme Court previously denied an emergency appeal from North Carolina Republicans to overturn the court-drawn map, but four of the body’s six conservative justices indicated their openness to taking future cases regarding the power of state courts over federal elections. While North Carolina’s map will remain in place for the 2022 election even if the high court agrees to consider the case, the Republican argument — that the state courts usurped the legislature’s power to regulate congressional elections under the U.S. Constitution — could have long-term consequences for not only North Carolina’s map, but also other states’.

In the meantime, the court-drawn map that will be used in 2022 creates five safe Republican districts and two other clearly Republican-leaning seats, as well as three safe Democratic seats and two more Democratic-leaning districts. Two other seats look more competitive: One is a D+5 district in eastern North Carolina that has historically elected a Black Democrat, while the other is an R+3 seat south of Raleigh.

Of the House incumbents who are still considering seeking reelection, the biggest winner on this map is Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning. Whereas the state legislature’s plan placed her in an R+3 swing seat, this map puts her in a D+9 district that contains a little over 80 percent of her current seat’s constituents.

However, the remedial plan could complicate the political futures of some GOP incumbents. For instance, Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn has decided to run in the successor district to his Asheville-based seat, which is an about-face after he had announced plans to run in a different district after the legislature passed its first attempt at a map in November. Additionally, Republican Reps. Dan Bishop and Richard Hudson both hail from the Charlotte area, but neither lives in the district they plan to run in: Bishop has plans to run in the 8th District, east of the city, while Hudson has announced that he will run in the 9th District, even farther to the east.

While this map is a victory for Democrats, it could be a short-lived one. The remedial map is only in place for 2022, meaning a new map will need to come together before the 2024 election. And while the state Supreme Court currently has a narrow Democratic majority, Republicans could retake the court in 2022. Assuming they also hold onto their majorities in the state legislature, Republicans would then have a free hand to draw the map that will be used for the rest of the decade, as Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has no veto power over redistricting legislation.