Updated 12:01 am EDT | Nov 4, 2014

The Model’s Output

DATE OF RUN:

POLLS ANALYZED:

DAYS UNTIL ELECTION:

11/04/14

1670

0

What It Means

What The Model Shows

How It’s Changed

The distribution above doesn't follow the usual bell-curve shape because of the independent candidate in Kansas.
Harry Enten, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Al Johri, Ritchie King, Allison McCann, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver contributed to this project. Please let us know if you find any bugs.

Probabilities For Each Race

ElectionLeaderChance of Winning
AlaskaR+274%
Ala.R+100100%
Ark.R+596%
Colo.R+272%
Del.D+22>99%
Ga.R+275%
Hawaii ★D+40>99%
IowaR+270%
IdahoR+27>99%
Ill.D+11>99%
Kan.I+053%
Ky.R+698%
La.R+581%
Mass.D+19>99%
MaineR+25>99%
Mich.D+11>99%
Minn.D+1097%
Miss.R+19>99%
Mont.R+16>99%
N.C.D+169%
Neb.R+24>99%
N.H.D+279%
N.J.D+16>99%
N.M.D+12>99%
Okla.R+33>99%
Okla. ★R+31>99%
Ore.D+18>99%
R.I.D+41>99%
S.C.R+17>99%
S.C. ★R+24>99%
S.D.R+12>99%
Tenn.R+21>99%
TexasR+22>99%
Va.D+9>99%
W.Va.R+1599%
Wyo.R+42>99%
For Kansas, the margin is between the Republican candidate and the independent. A ★ indicates a special election.
Harry Enten, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Al Johri, Ritchie King, Allison McCann, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver contributed to this project. Please let us know if you find any bugs.

A Alaska

Mark Begich vs. Dan Sullivan

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 46 47R+1
1.12
 R+2
Oct 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 42 47R+5
0.58
 R+5
Oct 20 Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. 44 44tie
0.49
 R+3
Oct 20 YouGov 44 48R+4
0.41
 R+3
Oct 25 Ivan Moore Research 49 42D+7
0.40
 D+3
Oct 4 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 44 50R+6
0.32
 R+5
Oct 18 Hellenthal & Associates 52 42D+10
0.28
 D+7
Oct 6 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 40 44R+4
0.26
 R+2
Sep 29 Hickman Analytics 41 46R+5
0.12
 R+5
Sep 16 Dittman Research 43 48R+5
0.07
 R+5
Sep 14 Hays Research Group 41 36D+4
0.05
 D+3
Sep 26 YouGov 42 48R+6
0.04
 R+5
Oct 10 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 48R+3
0.03
 R+3
Sep 20 Public Policy Polling 42 44R+3
0.02
 R+3
Sep 18 Hellenthal & Associates 44 49R+5
0.02
 R+7
Sep 9 Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. 45 40D+5
0.02
 D+2
Aug 13 ccAdvertising 31 42R+11
0.01
 R+7
Sep 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 48R+5
0.01
 R+5
Aug 26 Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. 41 40D+1
0.00
 R+2
Aug 26 YouGov 38 44R+6
0.00
 R+5
Jun 30 Basswood Research 40 45R+5
0.00
 R+5
Aug 2 Public Policy Polling 44 39D+5
0.00
 D+3
Aug 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 47R+2
0.00
 R+2
Jul 22 Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. 44 37D+7
0.00
 D+4
Jul 15 YouGov 49 37D+12
0.00
 D+13
Apr 14 Magellan Strategies 41 46R+5
0.00
 R+4
May 10 Public Policy Polling 43 38D+5
0.00
 D+2
Jan 21 Harper Polling 41 47R+6
0.00
 R+5
Mar 20 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 44tie
0.00
 tie
Jan 31 Public Policy Polling 41 37D+4
0.00
 D+2
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average44.645.6R+1.0
Adjusted polling average44.346.0R+1.7
State fundamentals40.148.9R+8.8
Now-cast43.946.2R+2.3
Projected vote share47.850.1R+2.3
Chance of winning26%74%

Mark Pryor vs. Tom Cotton

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 43 50R+7
1.03
 R+8
Oct 24 U. Arkansas 36 49R+13
0.69
 R+9
Oct 21 Marist College 43 45R+2
0.61
 R+2
Oct 16 Hendrix College 41 49R+9
0.57
 R+8
Oct 28 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 51R+7
0.56
 R+7
Oct 20 YouGov 42 47R+5
0.56
 R+4
Oct 31 Opinion Research Associates 45 43D+2
0.46
 R+2
Oct 6 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 39 46R+7
0.26
 R+5
Sep 22 Suffolk University 45 43D+2
0.12
 D+1
Sep 10 Gravis Marketing 43 47R+4
0.05
 R+3
Aug 31 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 47 49R+2
0.05
 R+1
Sep 8 Answers Unlimited 46 42D+4
0.04
 D+1
Oct 14 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 47R+3
0.04
 R+3
Sep 1 ccAdvertising 29 37R+8
0.04
 R+4
Sep 20 Public Policy Polling 39 44R+6
0.03
 R+6
Sep 26 YouGov 41 45R+4
0.02
 R+3
Sep 3 Marist College 40 45R+5
0.02
 R+5
Sep 25 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 47R+7
0.00
 R+7
Jun 29 Impact Management Group 43 47R+4
0.00
 R+4
Aug 26 YouGov 39 43R+4
0.00
 R+3
Jul 24 Hendrix College 42 44R+2
0.00
 R+2
Aug 2 Public Policy Polling 40 42R+2
0.00
 R+4
Aug 26 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 43D+1
0.00
 D+1
Jun 4 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 43 51R+8
0.00
 R+6
Jun 5 Magellan Strategies 45 49R+4
0.00
 R+3
Jul 8 Gravis Marketing 44 51R+7
0.00
 R+9
May 28 Public Opinion Strategies 41 46R+5
0.00
 R+2
Jul 15 YouGov 46 50R+4
0.00
 R+3
Apr 12 Kaiser Family Foundation 46 36D+10
0.00
 D+6
May 2 Marist College 51 40D+11
0.00
 D+8
Apr 10 Harper Polling 39 39tie
0.00
 D+1
Apr 15 Magellan Strategies 43 46R+3
0.00
 R+2
May 28 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 47R+4
0.00
 R+4
Apr 26 Public Policy Polling 43 42D+1
0.00
 R+1
Apr 4 Hendrix College 46 43D+3
0.00
 D+3
Apr 5 Opinion Research Associates 48 38D+10
0.00
 D+3
Feb 19 Hickman Analytics 43 42D+2
0.00
 D+1
Jan 27 Harper Polling 36 42R+6
0.00
 R+5
Feb 10 Impact Management Group 42 46R+4
0.00
 R+4
Dec 7 Polling Company 41 48R+7
0.00
 R+5
Feb 5 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 45R+5
0.00
 R+5
Dec 14 Public Policy Polling 44 44tie
0.00
 R+2
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average41.747.7R+5.9
Adjusted polling average42.047.6R+5.6
State fundamentals43.344.4R+1.1
Now-cast42.147.4R+5.3
Projected vote share46.251.5R+5.3
Chance of winning4%96%

Mark Udall vs. Cory Gardner

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 28 SurveyUSA 44 46R+2
1.14
 R+2
Oct 31 Quinnipiac University 44 46R+2
1.12
 D+1
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 47 50R+3
0.98
 R+4
Oct 28 YouGov 42 43R+1
0.82
 tie
Oct 20 Marist College 45 46R+1
0.64
 R+1
Oct 23 Strategies 360 45 44D+1
0.54
 D+1
Oct 27 Vox Populi Communications 43 46R+3
0.50
 D+2
Oct 20 Suffolk University 39 46R+7
0.48
 R+8
Oct 19 Monmouth University 46 47R+1
0.47
 R+1
Oct 17 Ipsos, online 45 47R+2
0.44
 R+2
Oct 11 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 46 50R+4
0.44
 R+3
Oct 22 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 51R+6
0.42
 R+6
Oct 14 Mellman 42 39D+3
0.38
 tie
Oct 16 Gravis Marketing 43 48R+5
0.30
 R+4
Oct 16 Benenson Strategy Group 47 44D+3
0.27
 tie
Oct 25 Quinnipiac University 40 48R+8
0.27
 R+5
Oct 6 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 37 43R+6
0.27
 R+4
Oct 10 SurveyUSA 43 45R+2
0.26
 R+2
Oct 6 SurveyUSA 42 46R+4
0.19
 R+4
Oct 29 Public Policy Polling 48 48tie
0.18
 R+1
Oct 18 Quinnipiac University 43 47R+5
0.10
 R+2
Sep 20 ccAdvertising 32 38R+6
0.09
 R+2
Oct 20 YouGov 47 46D+1
0.08
 D+2
Sep 11 Myers Research 48 46D+2
0.08
 D+2
Oct 18 Public Policy Polling 44 47R+3
0.07
 R+4
Oct 11 Quinnipiac University 43 48R+6
0.04
 R+3
Sep 15 Suffolk University 42 43R+1
0.03
 R+1
Sep 9 SurveyUSA 46 42D+4
0.03
 D+4
Sep 3 Marist College 48 42D+6
0.02
 D+6
Sep 30 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 47 48R+1
0.02
 R+1
Sep 17 Gravis Marketing 39 46R+7
0.01
 R+6
Sep 26 YouGov 48 45D+3
0.01
 D+4
Sep 20 Public Policy Polling 45 47R+2
0.01
 R+2
Sep 13 Quinnipiac University 41 50R+9
0.01
 R+7
Sep 4 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 42D+2
0.00
 D+2
Aug 26 YouGov 46 43D+3
0.00
 D+4
Jul 9 Marist College 48 41D+7
0.00
 D+4
Jun 7 Magellan Strategies 45 47R+2
0.00
 R+1
Jul 9 Gravis Marketing 43 47R+4
0.00
 R+6
Jul 19 Public Policy Polling 44 43D+1
0.00
 R+1
Jul 12 Quinnipiac University 42 44R+2
0.00
 R+3
Jul 15 YouGov 51 47D+4
0.00
 D+5
Apr 17 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 42 44R+2
0.00
 tie
Jun 26 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 42D+1
0.00
 D+1
Apr 9 Harper Polling 45 43D+2
0.00
 D+3
Apr 15 Magellan Strategies 45 42D+3
0.00
 D+4
May 8 Public Policy Polling 47 43D+4
0.00
 D+2
Apr 18 Quinnipiac University 45 44D+1
0.00
 R+1
Mar 9 Harper Polling 45 44D+1
0.00
 D+2
Apr 19 Public Policy Polling 47 45D+2
0.00
 tie
Mar 15 Public Policy Polling 42 40D+2
0.00
 tie
Mar 6 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 42 41D+1
0.00
 D+1
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average43.846.0R+2.3
Adjusted polling average44.045.7R+1.7
State fundamentals43.544.2R+0.7
Now-cast44.045.7R+1.7
Projected vote share48.149.7R+1.7
Chance of winning28%72%

Chris Coons vs. Kevin Wade

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 54 36D+18
0.37
 D+19
Sep 16 U. Delaware 50 23D+27
0.09
 D+20
Sep 11 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 49 34D+15
0.05
 D+15
Sep 26 YouGov 51 35D+16
0.04
 D+17
Aug 26 YouGov 48 35D+13
0.01
 D+14
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average52.633.7D+19.0
Adjusted polling average52.734.2D+18.5
State fundamentals58.230.9D+27.3
Now-cast54.832.9D+21.9
Projected vote share59.637.6D+21.9
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Michelle Nunn vs. David Perdue

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 1 SurveyUSA 44 47R+3
1.34
 R+3
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 45 46R+1
1.09
 R+2
Nov 2 Landmark Communications 46 50R+4
0.93
 R+6
Oct 29 Marist College 44 48R+4
0.89
 R+4
Oct 28 YouGov 42 44R+2
0.86
 R+1
Oct 20 Abt SRBI 42 44R+2
0.78
 R+2
Oct 27 Monmouth University 41 49R+8
0.70
 R+8
Oct 21 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 47 44D+3
0.65
 D+4
Oct 26 SurveyUSA 45 48R+3
0.62
 R+3
Nov 1 InsiderAdvantage 45 48R+3
0.52
 R+3
Oct 28 Vox Populi Communications 43 48R+5
0.52
 tie
Oct 26 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 48 48tie
0.51
 tie
Oct 14 GaPundit.com 46 45D+1
0.30
 tie
Oct 19 SurveyUSA 46 44D+2
0.29
 D+2
Oct 1 Hickman Analytics 39 41R+2
0.15
 R+2
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 46 46tie
0.14
 R+1
Oct 12 SurveyUSA 48 45D+3
0.14
 D+3
Oct 29 Landmark Communications 47 47R+1
0.08
 R+2
Oct 24 Public Policy Polling 47 47tie
0.08
 R+1
Oct 4 SurveyUSA 45 46R+1
0.07
 R+1
Oct 20 YouGov 44 47R+3
0.06
 R+2
Sep 21 SurveyUSA 45 46R+1
0.03
 R+1
Sep 9 Abt SRBI 41 45R+4
0.02
 R+4
Oct 1 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 44R+4
0.02
 R+4
Oct 4 Public Policy Polling 43 45R+2
0.02
 R+3
Oct 21 Landmark Communications 47 47tie
0.02
 R+1
Oct 22 InsiderAdvantage 47 45D+2
0.01
 D+3
Sep 7 SurveyUSA 44 47R+3
0.01
 R+3
Aug 9 Hicks Evaluation Group 42 48R+6
0.01
 R+6
Sep 26 YouGov 43 47R+4
0.01
 R+3
Oct 8 Landmark Communications 46 46tie
0.01
 R+2
Aug 16 SurveyUSA 41 50R+9
0.00
 R+9
Sep 16 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 41 46R+5
0.00
 R+5
Sep 30 InsiderAdvantage 43 47R+4
0.00
 R+4
Aug 25 GaPundit.com 45 43D+2
0.00
 D+1
Jul 28 Vox Populi Communications 40 49R+9
0.00
 R+4
Sep 10 Landmark Communications 46 43D+3
0.00
 D+1
Aug 26 YouGov 41 47R+6
0.00
 R+5
Sep 11 InsiderAdvantage 40 50R+10
0.00
 R+10
Aug 21 Landmark Communications 47 40D+7
0.00
 D+5
Jul 12 Public Policy Polling 48 41D+7
0.00
 D+5
Jul 24 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 46R+6
0.00
 R+6
Jun 4 SurveyUSA 38 43R+5
0.00
 R+5
May 6 Saint Leo University 37 41R+4
0.00
 R+4
Jul 15 YouGov 44 50R+6
0.00
 R+5
May 3 Marist College 41 45R+4
0.00
 R+7
Aug 13 InsiderAdvantage 40 47R+7
0.00
 R+7
Jul 16 Landmark Communications 48 42D+6
0.00
 D+4
Jul 25 Landmark Communications 47 43D+4
0.00
 D+2
May 7 Abt SRBI 46 45D+1
0.00
 D+1
May 22 Public Policy Polling 48 46D+2
0.00
 tie
May 22 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 42D+3
0.00
 D+3
May 18 Landmark Communications 45 44D+1
0.00
 R+4
Mar 31 Landmark Communications 33 38R+5
0.00
 R+10
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average44.246.5R+2.3
Adjusted polling average43.946.0R+2.1
State fundamentals42.644.7R+2.2
Now-cast43.845.9R+2.1
Projected vote share47.649.7R+2.1
Chance of winning25%75%

Brian Schatz vs. Cam Cavasso

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 70 18D+52
0.50
 D+53
Oct 18 Merriman River Group 55 29D+26
0.32
 D+30
Sep 10 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 60 28D+32
0.05
 D+32
Sep 26 YouGov 71 17D+54
0.03
 D+55
Sep 13 Merriman River Group 62 25D+37
0.00
 D+41
Aug 26 YouGov 62 27D+35
0.00
 D+36
Jul 15 YouGov 59 22D+37
0.00
 D+38
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average64.222.4D+41.7
Adjusted polling average65.121.4D+43.7
State fundamentals60.329.4D+30.9
Now-cast63.723.6D+40.1
Projected vote share68.628.4D+40.1
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Bruce Braley vs. Joni Ernst

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 30 Selzer 44 51R+7
1.45
 R+7
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 46 49R+3
1.19
 R+4
Oct 31 Quinnipiac University 47 47tie
1.09
 D+2
Oct 29 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 47 49R+2
1.05
 R+1
Oct 29 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 44 45R+1
0.91
 D+1
Oct 28 YouGov 43 42D+1
0.77
 D+2
Oct 26 Ipsos, online 45 45tie
0.70
 tie
Oct 20 Marist College 46 49R+3
0.65
 R+3
Oct 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 47 48R+1
0.60
 R+1
Oct 23 Loras College 45 44D+1
0.58
 D+1
Oct 20 Monmouth University 46 47R+1
0.48
 R+1
Oct 21 Gravis Marketing 43 49R+6
0.42
 R+5
Oct 6 Selzer 46 47R+1
0.34
 R+1
Oct 13 Suffolk University 43 47R+4
0.34
 R+4
Oct 25 Quinnipiac University 45 49R+4
0.27
 R+2
Oct 3 Magellan Strategies 41 50R+9
0.20
 R+8
Oct 6 The Lukens Company 39 38D+1
0.19
 D+2
Sep 28 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps) 47 46D+1
0.15
 tie
Oct 20 YouGov 44 44tie
0.12
 D+1
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 47 48R+1
0.12
 R+2
Oct 18 Quinnipiac University 46 48R+2
0.11
 tie
Sep 29 Marist College 44 46R+2
0.08
 R+2
Sep 22 Selzer 38 44R+6
0.06
 R+6
Oct 11 Quinnipiac University 45 47R+2
0.04
 tie
Sep 9 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 49 48D+1
0.04
 D+2
Oct 16 Public Policy Polling 48 47D+1
0.04
 tie
Oct 9 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 48R+3
0.03
 R+3
Oct 2 Loras College 42 42tie
0.02
 tie
Sep 15 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 41 41tie
0.02
 D+2
Sep 30 Gravis Marketing 41 50R+9
0.01
 R+8
Sep 27 Public Policy Polling 43 45R+2
0.01
 R+2
Aug 25 Suffolk University 40 40tie
0.01
 tie
Sep 26 YouGov 44 43tie
0.01
 D+1
Sep 13 Quinnipiac University 44 50R+6
0.01
 R+4
Sep 4 Loras College 45 41D+5
0.00
 D+5
Sep 18 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 43tie
0.00
 tie
Aug 29 Public Policy Polling 43 45R+2
0.00
 R+3
Jul 10 Marist College 43 43tie
0.00
 R+3
Jun 23 ccAdvertising 31 36R+5
0.00
 R+1
Aug 23 Public Policy Polling 42 41D+1
0.00
 tie
Aug 26 YouGov 44 42D+2
0.00
 D+3
Jun 5 Vox Populi Communications 44 49R+5
0.00
 tie
Jul 18 Gravis Marketing 44 43D+1
0.00
 D+2
Aug 12 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 43tie
0.00
 tie
Jul 15 YouGov 47 48R+1
0.00
 tie
Apr 27 Hickman Analytics 44 40D+4
0.00
 D+3
Jun 14 Quinnipiac University 44 40D+4
0.00
 D+3
Jun 5 Loras College 42 48R+6
0.00
 R+6
Apr 6 Suffolk University 38 30D+8
0.00
 D+7
Jun 5 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 45R+1
0.00
 R+1
May 17 Public Policy Polling 45 39D+6
0.00
 D+4
Mar 8 Quinnipiac University 42 29D+13
0.00
 D+12
Mar 25 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 37D+3
0.00
 D+3
Feb 22 Public Policy Polling 41 35D+6
0.00
 D+4
Nov 24 Harper Polling 42 36D+6
0.00
 D+8
Dec 13 Quinnipiac University 44 38D+6
0.00
 D+5
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average45.047.2R+2.2
Adjusted polling average45.146.8R+1.6
State fundamentals45.643.4D+2.2
Now-cast45.146.7R+1.5
Projected vote share48.349.8R+1.5
Chance of winning30%70%

Nels Mitchell vs. Jim Risch

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 30 61R+31
0.41
 R+30
Oct 11 Public Policy Polling 32 50R+18
0.28
 R+18
Sep 26 YouGov 27 74R+47
0.03
 R+46
Aug 26 YouGov 25 59R+34
0.00
 R+33
May 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 29 54R+25
0.00
 R+25
Jul 15 YouGov 31 64R+33
0.00
 R+32
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average30.657.4R+26.8
Adjusted polling average30.657.1R+26.4
State fundamentals29.759.3R+29.6
Now-cast30.457.8R+27.4
Projected vote share36.363.7R+27.4
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Dick Durbin vs. Jim Oberweis

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 52 43D+9
1.12
 D+8
Oct 28 McKeon & Associates 49 39D+10
0.67
 D+10
Oct 20 YouGov 52 39D+13
0.64
 D+14
Oct 19 APC Research 50 36D+14
0.43
 D+11
Oct 7 We Ask America 51 38D+13
0.19
 D+13
Oct 4 Southern Illinois University 47 37D+10
0.19
 D+11
Oct 5 University of Illinois - Springfield 50 35D+15
0.16
 D+14
Sep 25 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 51 37D+14
0.10
 D+14
Sep 26 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.01
 D+13
Sep 8 APC Research 55 32D+23
0.01
 D+17
Aug 5 Gravis Marketing 48 38D+10
0.01
 D+8
Aug 27 We Ask America 48 41D+7
0.00
 D+7
Aug 26 YouGov 50 38D+12
0.00
 D+13
Jul 30 We Ask America 53 38D+15
0.00
 D+15
Jun 12 We Ask America 52 39D+14
0.00
 D+14
Jul 15 YouGov 52 44D+8
0.00
 D+9
Apr 10 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 51 37D+14
0.00
 D+14
Nov 24 Public Policy Polling 51 36D+15
0.00
 D+13
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average50.639.3D+11.3
Adjusted polling average50.439.5D+10.8
State fundamentals52.136.3D+15.8
Now-cast50.539.2D+11.3
Projected vote share54.543.2D+11.3
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Greg Orman vs. Pat Roberts

Polling Firm Ind Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 48 47I+2
1.08
 I+1
Oct 24 SurveyUSA 44 42I+2
0.94
 I+2
Oct 29 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 44 43I+1
0.91
 I+3
Oct 28 YouGov 37 38R+1
0.77
 tie
Oct 20 Marist College 45 44I+1
0.64
 I+1
Oct 18 Monmouth University 46 46tie
0.44
 tie
Oct 21 Gravis Marketing 47 45I+2
0.44
 I+3
Oct 22 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 49 44I+5
0.42
 I+5
Oct 4 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 48 49R+1
0.32
 tie
Oct 11 Remington Research Group 46 48R+2
0.25
 tie
Oct 4 SurveyUSA 47 42I+5
0.19
 I+5
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 46 47R+1
0.18
 R+2
Sep 29 Suffolk University 46 41I+5
0.17
 I+5
Oct 20 YouGov 38 42R+4
0.11
 R+3
Sep 29 Marist College 48 38I+10
0.07
 I+10
Oct 6 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 39 44R+5
0.06
 R+3
Oct 11 Public Policy Polling 45 42I+3
0.04
 I+3
Oct 8 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 52 40I+12
0.03
 I+12
Oct 1 Gravis Marketing 47 40I+7
0.02
 I+8
Sep 26 YouGov 40 40tie
0.01
 I+1
Sep 15 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 48 42I+6
0.01
 I+8
Sep 13 Public Policy Polling 46 36I+10
0.01
 I+9
Aug 16 Public Policy Polling 43 33I+10
0.00
 I+9
FiveThirtyEight analysisIndRepMargin
Polling average44.943.7I+1.2
Adjusted polling average45.043.3I+1.7
State fundamentals31.457.7R+26.3
Now-cast44.444.0I+0.4
Projected vote share49.048.6I+0.4
Chance of winning53%47%

Alison Lundergan Grimes vs. Mitch McConnell

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 43 52R+9
1.13
 R+9
Oct 27 SurveyUSA 43 48R+5
1.06
 R+5
Oct 29 Marist College 41 50R+9
0.85
 R+9
Oct 20 YouGov 39 45R+6
0.56
 R+5
Oct 26 Public Opinion Strategies 43 50R+7
0.54
 R+4
Oct 17 SurveyUSA 43 44R+1
0.42
 R+1
Oct 16 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 52R+8
0.31
 R+8
Oct 13 Western Kentucky University 42 45R+4
0.28
 R+4
Oct 12 Gravis Marketing 47 50R+3
0.27
 R+2
Oct 6 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 41 45R+4
0.26
 R+2
Oct 1 SurveyUSA 46 44D+2
0.12
 D+2
Sep 16 ccAdvertising 33 42R+9
0.08
 R+5
Sep 10 Ipsos, online 42 46R+4
0.07
 R+4
Aug 30 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 46 50R+4
0.06
 R+3
Sep 6 Magellan Strategies 42 50R+8
0.05
 R+7
Sep 3 Marist College 39 47R+8
0.03
 R+8
Sep 26 YouGov 41 47R+6
0.02
 R+5
Aug 26 SurveyUSA 42 46R+4
0.01
 R+4
Sep 15 Gravis Marketing 41 51R+10
0.01
 R+9
Jul 30 Wenzel Strategies 44 48R+4
0.00
 R+3
Sep 2 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 41 46R+5
0.00
 R+5
Aug 9 Public Policy Polling 41 46R+5
0.00
 R+5
Aug 26 YouGov 42 47R+5
0.00
 R+4
Jul 21 SurveyUSA 45 47R+2
0.00
 R+2
Jul 19 Gravis Marketing 45 45tie
0.00
 D+1
Jun 16 Public Opinion Strategies 43 48R+5
0.00
 R+2
May 15 SurveyUSA 43 42D+1
0.00
 D+1
Jun 5 Magellan Strategies 49 46D+3
0.00
 D+4
Jul 15 YouGov 46 50R+4
0.00
 R+3
Jun 21 Public Policy Polling 48 46D+2
0.00
 tie
Apr 27 Hickman Analytics 45 46R+1
0.00
 R+2
May 3 Marist College 45 46R+1
0.00
 R+4
Apr 12 Kaiser Family Foundation 43 44R+1
0.00
 R+5
May 24 Wenzel Strategies 44 47R+3
0.00
 R+3
May 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 41 48R+7
0.00
 R+7
Apr 16 Gravis Marketing 36 43R+7
0.00
 R+9
Apr 2 Public Policy Polling 45 44D+1
0.00
 R+1
Feb 2 SurveyUSA 46 42D+4
0.00
 D+1
Feb 10 Wenzel Strategies 42 43R+1
0.00
 R+1
Jan 25 Public Policy Polling 44 45R+1
0.00
 R+3
Jan 30 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 42 42tie
0.00
 tie
Dec 14 Public Policy Polling 42 43R+1
0.00
 R+3
Dec 31 Gravis Marketing 37 42R+5
0.00
 R+7
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average42.448.4R+6.1
Adjusted polling average42.548.0R+5.5
State fundamentals39.248.5R+9.3
Now-cast42.348.1R+5.7
Projected vote share46.151.8R+5.7
Chance of winning2%98%

Mary Landrieu vs. Bill Cassidy

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 47 48R+1
1.06
 R+2
Oct 29 Marist College 45 50R+5
0.99
 R+5
Oct 25 Suffolk University 41 48R+7
0.71
 R+8
Oct 20 YouGov 42 46R+4
0.68
 R+3
Oct 23 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 46 50R+4
0.53
 R+4
Nov 1 ccAdvertising 36 48R+12
0.51
 R+8
Oct 17 Multi-Quest International 40 43R+3
0.39
 R+5
Oct 14 Vox Populi Communications 44 48R+4
0.34
 D+1
Sep 24 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 47 50R+3
0.33
 R+2
Oct 18 U. New Orleans 43 51R+8
0.28
 R+8
Sep 29 Hickman Analytics 45 46R+1
0.23
 R+1
Sep 15 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 38 51R+13
0.18
 R+11
Aug 31 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps) 48 46D+2
0.09
 D+1
Sep 7 Gravis Marketing 45 45tie
0.09
 D+1
Sep 27 Public Policy Polling 45 48R+3
0.07
 R+4
Sep 26 YouGov 41 47R+6
0.05
 R+5
Oct 14 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 43 52R+9
0.05
 R+9
Jun 7 Magellan Strategies 44 50R+6
0.00
 R+5
Sep 3 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 33 36R+3
0.00
 R+3
Jul 15 YouGov 46 47R+1
0.00
 tie
Jun 28 Public Policy Polling 47 47tie
0.00
 R+2
Apr 7 Harper Polling 43 47R+4
0.00
 R+3
May 7 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps) 49 49tie
0.00
 R+5
Jul 9 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 46 43D+3
0.00
 D+3
Apr 15 Magellan Strategies 42 44R+2
0.00
 R+1
Feb 23 Voter/Consumer Research 45 44D+1
0.00
 R+1
Feb 21 Hickman Analytics 42 46R+4
0.00
 R+4
Jan 20 Harper Polling 44 45R+1
0.00
 tie
Feb 8 Public Policy Polling 45 44D+1
0.00
 R+1
Jan 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 44R+4
0.00
 R+4
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average43.448.2R+4.7
Adjusted polling average44.548.7R+4.2
State fundamentals37.849.9R+12.1
Now-cast44.148.7R+4.6
Projected vote share47.752.3R+4.6
Chance of winning19%81%

Ed Markey vs. Brian Herr

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 54 38D+16
0.95
 D+15
Oct 28 Suffolk University 49 34D+15
0.71
 D+14
Oct 20 YouGov 54 32D+22
0.60
 D+23
Oct 26 Western New England U. 54 34D+20
0.59
 D+20
Oct 3 MassINC Polling Group 56 30D+26
0.20
 D+24
Sep 17 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 49 31D+18
0.07
 D+18
Sep 27 Suffolk University 54 30D+23
0.06
 D+23
Sep 15 SocialSphere 53 27D+26
0.06
 D+23
Sep 24 Western New England U. 56 34D+22
0.05
 D+22
Sep 19 MassINC Polling Group 58 30D+28
0.04
 D+26
Sep 26 YouGov 54 31D+23
0.02
 D+24
Jul 15 YouGov 61 34D+27
0.00
 D+28
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average53.034.2D+18.8
Adjusted polling average53.034.6D+18.4
State fundamentals55.532.9D+22.6
Now-cast53.234.4D+18.8
Projected vote share59.440.6D+18.8
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Shenna Bellows vs. Susan Collins

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 1 Maine People's Resource Center 37 57R+20
0.64
 R+20
Oct 20 YouGov 35 54R+19
0.53
 R+18
Oct 26 Ipsos, online 32 64R+32
0.51
 R+32
Oct 18 University of New Hampshire 30 65R+35
0.48
 R+35
Oct 18 Pan Atlantic SMS 27 67R+40
0.35
 R+36
Oct 9 Ipsos, online 31 56R+25
0.07
 R+25
Sep 26 Pan Atlantic SMS 25 68R+43
0.05
 R+40
Sep 4 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 31 59R+28
0.04
 R+28
Sep 22 University of New Hampshire 29 59R+30
0.03
 R+30
Sep 26 YouGov 33 57R+24
0.03
 R+23
Aug 26 YouGov 26 58R+32
0.00
 R+31
Jun 15 University of New Hampshire 17 72R+55
0.00
 R+55
Jul 15 YouGov 29 65R+36
0.00
 R+35
Apr 24 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 24 60R+36
0.00
 R+36
Nov 10 Public Policy Polling 20 59R+39
0.00
 R+40
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average32.660.7R+28.1
Adjusted polling average33.060.4R+27.4
State fundamentals40.548.6R+8.1
Now-cast33.959.0R+25.2
Projected vote share36.561.7R+25.2
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Gary Peters vs. Terri Lynn Land

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 53 41D+12
1.06
 D+11
Nov 2 Mitchell Research & Communications 52 40D+12
0.81
 D+12
Oct 27 EPIC-MRA 50 35D+15
0.75
 D+14
Oct 20 YouGov 49 41D+8
0.61
 D+9
Oct 20 Clarity Campaign Labs 48 33D+15
0.55
 D+13
Oct 23 Glengariff Group, Inc. 48 33D+15
0.46
 D+14
Oct 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 51 42D+9
0.40
 D+9
Sep 28 Lake Research Partners 45 36D+9
0.19
 D+9
Oct 18 EPIC-MRA 45 34D+11
0.17
 D+10
Oct 7 Wenzel Strategies 47 44D+3
0.13
 D+3
Sep 27 ccAdvertising 29 30R+1
0.13
 D+3
Oct 1 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 47 36D+11
0.12
 D+11
Oct 21 Public Policy Polling 53 39D+14
0.11
 D+13
Sep 19 We Ask America 42 39D+3
0.08
 D+3
Sep 15 Magellan Strategies 45 40D+5
0.07
 D+6
Oct 12 Clarity Campaign Labs 49 37D+12
0.07
 D+10
Oct 27 Mitchell Research & Communications 52 38D+14
0.07
 D+14
Sep 12 Denno Research 45 38D+7
0.06
 D+7
Sep 8 Suffolk University 46 37D+9
0.06
 D+8
Oct 3 Glengariff Group, Inc. 44 35D+9
0.04
 D+8
Sep 27 EPIC-MRA 42 33D+9
0.03
 D+8
Oct 3 Public Policy Polling 49 42D+7
0.02
 D+7
Sep 26 YouGov 46 41D+5
0.02
 D+6
Oct 19 Mitchell Research & Communications 51 38D+14
0.02
 D+14
Oct 12 Mitchell Research & Communications 50 39D+11
0.01
 D+11
Sep 18 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 41 39D+2
0.01
 D+2
Sep 19 Public Policy Polling 47 40D+7
0.01
 D+6
Aug 9 Lake Research Partners 42 38D+4
0.01
 D+4
Jul 28 Benenson Strategy Group 47 42D+5
0.01
 D+2
Sep 4 Glengariff Group, Inc. 47 37D+11
0.00
 D+9
Oct 9 Mitchell Research & Communications 48 43D+5
0.00
 D+5
Jul 9 Marist College 43 37D+6
0.00
 D+3
Aug 24 EPIC-MRA 45 39D+6
0.00
 D+5
Sep 6 Public Policy Polling 44 38D+6
0.00
 D+5
Sep 29 Mitchell Research & Communications 49 36D+13
0.00
 D+13
Aug 26 YouGov 42 43R+1
0.00
 tie
Jul 28 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 47 40D+7
0.00
 D+7
Jul 10 Denno Research 40 37D+2
0.00
 D+2
Sep 14 Mitchell Research & Communications 43 41D+2
0.00
 D+2
Jul 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 39D+6
0.00
 D+6
Jul 14 EPIC-MRA 45 36D+9
0.00
 D+8
Aug 27 Mitchell Research & Communications 46 44D+2
0.00
 D+2
Jun 7 Magellan Strategies 50 41D+9
0.00
 D+10
Jul 15 YouGov 47 48R+1
0.00
 tie
Apr 27 Hickman Analytics 42 37D+5
0.00
 D+4
Jun 28 Public Policy Polling 41 36D+5
0.00
 D+3
Aug 5 Mitchell Research & Communications 45 44D+1
0.00
 D+1
Apr 8 Harper Polling 40 43R+3
0.00
 R+2
May 19 EPIC-MRA 44 38D+6
0.00
 D+5
May 21 Glengariff Group, Inc. 40 35D+4
0.00
 D+3
Apr 15 Magellan Strategies 46 41D+5
0.00
 D+6
Jun 6 Mitchell Research & Communications 45 42D+3
0.00
 D+3
Mar 26 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 38 40R+2
0.00
 R+2
Apr 5 Public Policy Polling 41 36D+5
0.00
 D+3
Mar 10 Denno Research 40 37D+3
0.00
 D+3
Feb 23 Clarity Campaign Labs 46 40D+6
0.00
 D+4
Jan 20 Harper Polling 37 42R+5
0.00
 R+4
Apr 9 Mitchell Research & Communications 38 44R+6
0.00
 R+6
Feb 8 EPIC-MRA 38 41R+3
0.00
 R+4
Jan 8 Harper Polling 36 44R+8
0.00
 R+6
Jan 15 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 35 37R+2
0.00
 R+2
Dec 7 Public Policy Polling 40 42R+2
0.00
 R+4
Nov 13 Denno Research 37 36D+1
0.00
 D+2
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average49.137.8D+11.3
Adjusted polling average49.538.5D+11.0
State fundamentals46.042.3D+3.7
Now-cast49.338.7D+10.6
Projected vote share54.043.4D+10.6
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Al Franken vs. Mike McFadden

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 29 SurveyUSA 51 40D+11
1.16
 D+11
Oct 21 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 48 39D+9
0.67
 D+10
Oct 20 YouGov 51 41D+10
0.61
 D+11
Oct 15 SurveyUSA 53 38D+15
0.35
 D+15
Sep 30 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 49 41D+8
0.13
 D+8
Oct 1 SurveyUSA 55 37D+18
0.11
 D+18
Sep 9 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 49 36D+13
0.03
 D+14
Sep 26 YouGov 49 42D+7
0.02
 D+8
Aug 20 SurveyUSA 51 42D+9
0.01
 D+9
Aug 14 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 50 42D+8
0.00
 D+8
Jul 3 Gravis Marketing 51 35D+16
0.00
 D+14
Aug 26 YouGov 49 41D+8
0.00
 D+9
Jun 14 Public Policy Polling 49 38D+11
0.00
 D+9
Jun 7 SurveyUSA 48 42D+6
0.00
 D+6
Apr 26 Suffolk University 44 29D+15
0.00
 D+15
Jul 15 YouGov 55 41D+14
0.00
 D+15
Mar 26 Magellan Strategies 44 38D+6
0.00
 D+7
Feb 26 SurveyUSA 50 40D+10
0.00
 D+7
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average50.639.7D+10.9
Adjusted polling average50.839.3D+11.5
State fundamentals43.145.9R+2.8
Now-cast50.039.9D+10.1
Projected vote share53.943.9D+10.1
Chance of winning97%3%

Travis W. Childers vs. Thad Cochran

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 28 50R+22
0.43
 R+21
Sep 26 YouGov 35 46R+11
0.04
 R+10
Aug 26 YouGov 31 46R+15
0.00
 R+14
Jul 12 Public Policy Polling 25 41R+16
0.00
 R+18
Jun 26 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 34 46R+12
0.00
 R+12
Jul 15 YouGov 33 47R+14
0.00
 R+13
Mar 28 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 31 48R+17
0.00
 R+17
Nov 16 Public Policy Polling 33 50R+17
0.00
 R+19
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average28.649.6R+21.0
Adjusted polling average28.748.9R+20.2
State fundamentals34.852.9R+18.0
Now-cast31.350.6R+19.3
Projected vote share38.257.5R+19.3
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Amanda Curtis vs. Steve Daines

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 24 Gravis Marketing 39 53R+14
0.43
 R+13
Oct 20 YouGov 38 56R+18
0.38
 R+17
Oct 9 Montana State U. - Billings 31 48R+17
0.28
 R+17
Sep 26 YouGov 34 55R+21
0.04
 R+20
Sep 30 Gravis Marketing 41 54R+13
0.03
 R+12
Aug 19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 35 55R+20
0.02
 R+20
Aug 26 YouGov 35 53R+18
0.00
 R+17
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average36.552.8R+16.3
Adjusted polling average37.653.1R+15.5
State fundamentals35.253.9R+18.7
Now-cast37.053.3R+16.3
Projected vote share40.857.1R+16.3
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Kay Hagan vs. Thom Tillis

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 46 44D+2
1.20
 D+1
Oct 23 SurveyUSA 44 44tie
1.07
 tie
Oct 29 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 48 46D+2
0.96
 D+3
Oct 29 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 43 42D+1
0.91
 D+3
Oct 28 YouGov 44 42D+2
0.85
 D+3
Oct 30 National Research, Inc. 41 41tie
0.76
 tie
Oct 21 Marist College 43 43tie
0.67
 tie
Oct 30 Gravis Marketing 46 47R+1
0.66
 tie
Oct 25 Monmouth University 48 46D+2
0.63
 D+2
Oct 23 Elon University 45 41D+4
0.63
 D+4
Oct 29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 46 45D+1
0.59
 D+1
Oct 29 Harper Polling 44 46R+2
0.53
 R+1
Oct 27 Vox Populi Communications 43 48R+5
0.49
 tie
Oct 18 SurveyUSA 46 43D+3
0.34
 D+3
Oct 6 Suffolk University 47 45D+1
0.24
 D+1
Oct 5 High Point University 40 40R+1
0.22
 R+1
Oct 4 The Lukens Company 40 38D+2
0.17
 D+3
Oct 11 SurveyUSA 44 41D+3
0.16
 D+3
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 46 45D+1
0.12
 tie
Oct 17 National Research, Inc. 41 42R+1
0.12
 R+1
Sep 24 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 46 43D+3
0.09
 D+4
Sep 29 Marist College 44 40D+4
0.07
 D+4
Sep 17 Global Strategy Group 45 41D+4
0.07
 D+4
Oct 20 YouGov 44 41D+3
0.07
 D+4
Oct 29 Public Policy Polling 47 46D+1
0.06
 tie
Oct 17 Gravis Marketing 43 48R+5
0.05
 R+4
Sep 8 American Inisghts 47 36D+11
0.04
 D+9
Oct 7 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 48 46D+2
0.03
 D+2
Oct 17 Public Policy Polling 46 43D+3
0.02
 D+2
Sep 10 SurveyUSA 46 43D+3
0.02
 D+3
Sep 27 National Research, Inc. 46 41D+5
0.02
 D+5
Sep 16 High Point University 42 40D+2
0.02
 D+2
Sep 7 Elon University 41 35D+6
0.02
 D+6
Sep 15 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 41 36D+5
0.02
 D+7
Aug 18 Suffolk University 45 43D+2
0.01
 D+2
Sep 26 YouGov 46 45D+1
0.01
 D+2
Sep 23 Gravis Marketing 46 42D+4
0.01
 D+5
Sep 13 Public Policy Polling 44 40D+4
0.00
 D+3
Sep 9 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 45 39D+6
0.00
 D+6
Aug 26 YouGov 42 43R+1
0.00
 tie
Jul 29 National Research, Inc. 42 42tie
0.00
 R+3
Jun 7 Magellan Strategies 47 46D+1
0.00
 D+2
Aug 16 Public Policy Polling 43 40D+3
0.00
 D+2
Jul 25 Gravis Marketing 44 41D+3
0.00
 D+1
Aug 6 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 45R+5
0.00
 R+5
Jul 19 Public Policy Polling 42 37D+5
0.00
 D+3
Jul 15 YouGov 47 48R+1
0.00
 tie
Jun 20 National Research, Inc. 45 40D+5
0.00
 D+2
Apr 12 Kaiser Family Foundation 42 40D+2
0.00
 R+2
Jun 14 Public Policy Polling 41 37D+4
0.00
 D+2
Mar 29 SurveyUSA 45 46R+1
0.00
 R+1
May 21 National Research, Inc. 39 43R+4
0.00
 R+4
Apr 15 Magellan Strategies 43 43tie
0.00
 D+1
Feb 19 Hickman Analytics 45 41D+4
0.00
 D+4
May 10 Public Policy Polling 40 39D+1
0.00
 R+1
May 8 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 44 45R+1
0.00
 R+1
Feb 13 American Inisghts 38 35D+3
0.00
 R+2
Apr 5 Public Policy Polling 43 41D+2
0.00
 tie
Jan 21 Harper Polling 44 44tie
0.00
 D+1
Mar 8 Public Policy Polling 45 43D+2
0.00
 tie
Feb 8 Public Policy Polling 40 42R+2
0.00
 R+4
Jan 23 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 40 47R+7
0.00
 R+7
Jan 11 Public Policy Polling 42 43R+1
0.00
 R+3
Dec 7 Public Policy Polling 44 42D+2
0.00
 tie
Nov 10 Public Policy Polling 44 42D+2
0.00
 tie
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average43.842.9D+0.9
Adjusted polling average44.042.5D+1.5
State fundamentals41.242.4R+1.1
Now-cast43.942.5D+1.4
Projected vote share48.847.4D+1.4
Chance of winning69%31%

Dave Domina vs. Ben Sasse

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 30 59R+29
0.44
 R+28
Sep 26 YouGov 31 58R+27
0.03
 R+26
Aug 26 YouGov 30 56R+26
0.00
 R+25
Jul 15 YouGov 35 58R+23
0.00
 R+22
May 15 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 34 51R+17
0.00
 R+17
Apr 8 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 27 52R+25
0.00
 R+25
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average30.158.9R+28.8
Adjusted polling average30.258.2R+28.0
State fundamentals36.754.4R+17.6
Now-cast33.056.6R+23.6
Projected vote share36.960.5R+23.6
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Jeanne Shaheen vs. Scott Brown

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 2 Public Policy Polling 50 48D+2
1.28
 D+1
Nov 1 New England College 48 49R+1
1.25
 tie
Oct 31 University of New Hampshire 47 45D+2
0.98
 D+2
Oct 20 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 49 47D+2
0.67
 D+3
Oct 30 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 52 45D+7
0.62
 D+7
Oct 20 YouGov 46 41D+5
0.51
 D+6
Oct 28 American Research Group 49 49tie
0.48
 tie
Oct 6 SurveyUSA 48 46D+2
0.47
 D+2
Oct 18 Suffolk University 49 46D+3
0.43
 D+3
Oct 24 Vox Populi Communications 45 49R+4
0.41
 D+1
Oct 18 U. Mass - Lowell 49 46D+3
0.34
 D+3
Oct 24 University of New Hampshire 50 42D+8
0.16
 D+8
Oct 24 New England College 47 48R+2
0.11
 R+1
Oct 31 Public Policy Polling 49 47D+2
0.09
 D+1
Sep 11 Magellan Strategies 44 46R+2
0.08
 tie
Oct 21 American Research Group 49 48D+1
0.06
 D+1
Sep 10 Global Strategy Group 48 41D+7
0.06
 D+7
Sep 10 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 48 48tie
0.05
 D+1
Oct 21 Public Policy Polling 49 45D+4
0.04
 D+3
Oct 2 University of New Hampshire 47 41D+6
0.04
 D+6
Oct 16 New England College 47 48tie
0.03
 tie
Aug 30 Public Opinion Strategies 44 41D+3
0.03
 D+6
Oct 13 YouGov 48 45D+3
0.03
 D+4
Sep 26 YouGov 48 41D+7
0.02
 D+8
Oct 9 New England College 47 48R+1
0.02
 R+1
Sep 16 Vox Populi Communications 43 47R+4
0.01
 D+1
Oct 3 New England College 49 46D+3
0.01
 D+3
Sep 28 American Research Group 53 43D+10
0.01
 D+11
Sep 11 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 48 45D+3
0.01
 D+3
Jul 10 Marist College 50 42D+8
0.01
 D+5
Sep 26 New England College 47 47D+1
0.00
 D+1
Sep 19 Public Policy Polling 50 44D+6
0.00
 D+6
Sep 20 New England College 50 43D+7
0.00
 D+7
Sep 14 American Research Group 50 45D+5
0.00
 D+6
Aug 26 YouGov 47 41D+6
0.00
 D+7
Aug 12 University of New Hampshire 46 44D+2
0.00
 D+2
Aug 28 Public Policy Polling 50 44D+6
0.00
 D+5
Sep 11 New England College 51 40D+11
0.00
 D+11
Jun 16 Suffolk University 49 39D+10
0.00
 D+9
Jul 17 Magellan Strategies 46 41D+5
0.00
 D+6
Jul 15 YouGov 52 42D+10
0.00
 D+11
Jun 25 University of New Hampshire 50 38D+12
0.00
 D+12
Apr 27 Hickman Analytics 49 43D+6
0.00
 D+5
Apr 23 Dartmouth College 39 36D+3
0.00
 D+3
Jun 16 American Research Group 50 38D+12
0.00
 D+9
May 15 Vox Populi Communications 47 35D+12
0.00
 D+17
Mar 2 Suffolk University 52 39D+13
0.00
 D+12
Apr 8 Public Policy Polling 49 41D+8
0.00
 D+6
Apr 5 University of New Hampshire 45 39D+6
0.00
 D+6
Jan 22 Purple Strategies 44 44tie
0.00
 D+3
Jan 23 Harper Polling 40 35D+5
0.00
 D+6
Mar 13 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 50 41D+9
0.00
 D+9
Mar 15 American Research Group 50 38D+12
0.00
 D+9
Feb 20 Public Policy Polling 47 39D+8
0.00
 D+6
Jan 24 University of New Hampshire 47 37D+10
0.00
 D+10
Jan 11 Public Policy Polling 46 43D+3
0.00
 D+1
Dec 15 American Research Group 48 38D+10
0.00
 D+7
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average48.446.5D+2.0
Adjusted polling average48.346.0D+2.3
State fundamentals45.843.3D+2.5
Now-cast48.245.9D+2.3
Projected vote share50.448.1D+2.3
Chance of winning79%21%

Cory Booker vs. Jeff Bell

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Nov 1 Monmouth University 54 40D+14
1.25
 D+14
Oct 20 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.58
 D+13
Oct 20 Stockton College 57 33D+24
0.54
 D+24
Oct 16 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) 56 40D+16
0.48
 D+16
Sep 27 Quinnipiac University 51 40D+11
0.23
 D+13
Oct 4 Monmouth University 53 38D+15
0.09
 D+15
Oct 7 Stockton College 48 39D+9
0.07
 D+9
Sep 4 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) 42 29D+13
0.04
 D+10
Sep 26 YouGov 51 37D+14
0.02
 D+15
Sep 7 Stockton College 49 36D+13
0.01
 D+13
Aug 2 Quinnipiac University 47 37D+10
0.00
 D+9
Aug 26 YouGov 52 37D+15
0.00
 D+16
Jun 18 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 48 35D+13
0.00
 D+13
Jun 27 Monmouth University 43 23D+20
0.00
 D+17
Jul 15 YouGov 50 43D+7
0.00
 D+8
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average53.738.4D+15.3
Adjusted polling average53.938.3D+15.6
State fundamentals55.233.9D+21.3
Now-cast54.037.9D+16.1
Projected vote share57.141.0D+16.1
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Tom Udall vs. Allen Weh

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 22 Research & Polling, Inc. 50 43D+7
0.65
 D+7
Oct 20 YouGov 52 36D+16
0.50
 D+17
Oct 21 Vox Populi Communications 47 43D+4
0.37
 D+9
Sep 29 Gravis Marketing 53 36D+17
0.13
 D+18
Sep 23 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 52 39D+13
0.10
 D+13
Sep 10 Research & Polling, Inc. 51 38D+13
0.03
 D+13
Sep 26 YouGov 53 35D+18
0.03
 D+19
Aug 13 Research & Polling, Inc. 53 35D+18
0.00
 D+18
Aug 26 YouGov 54 36D+18
0.00
 D+19
Jul 22 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 54 33D+21
0.00
 D+21
Jul 15 YouGov 52 44D+8
0.00
 D+9
Mar 15 Public Policy Polling 53 33D+20
0.00
 D+18
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average50.340.1D+10.2
Adjusted polling average51.239.3D+11.8
State fundamentals51.737.3D+14.4
Now-cast51.339.0D+12.2
Projected vote share56.143.9D+12.2
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Matt Silverstein vs. Jim Inhofe

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 27 SoonerPoll.com 28 63R+35
1.01
 R+35
Oct 20 YouGov 27 63R+36
0.50
 R+35
Sep 26 YouGov 25 67R+42
0.03
 R+41
Aug 29 SoonerPoll.com 28 59R+32
0.01
 R+31
Jul 16 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 27 58R+31
0.00
 R+31
Aug 26 YouGov 28 60R+32
0.00
 R+31
Jul 15 YouGov 32 56R+24
0.00
 R+23
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average27.562.8R+35.4
Adjusted polling average27.662.6R+35.1
State fundamentals31.457.6R+26.2
Now-cast28.361.7R+33.4
Projected vote share32.165.6R+33.4
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Connie Johnson vs. James Lankford

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 27 SoonerPoll.com 28 59R+31
1.01
 R+31
Oct 20 YouGov 29 63R+34
0.50
 R+33
Sep 26 YouGov 24 65R+41
0.03
 R+40
Aug 28 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 34 57R+23
0.03
 R+23
Aug 29 SoonerPoll.com 28 58R+31
0.01
 R+30
Aug 26 YouGov 28 61R+33
0.00
 R+32
Jul 15 YouGov 34 57R+23
0.00
 R+22
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average28.460.6R+32.2
Adjusted polling average28.560.4R+31.9
State fundamentals30.658.5R+27.8
Now-cast28.960.1R+31.2
Projected vote share33.264.3R+31.2
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Jeff Merkley vs. Monica Wehby

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 25 SurveyUSA 53 32D+21
0.90
 D+21
Oct 27 Elway 49 30D+19
0.77
 D+19
Oct 20 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.55
 D+13
Oct 18 SurveyUSA 53 32D+21
0.40
 D+21
Oct 9 Davis Hibbitts 47 26D+21
0.30
 D+21
Sep 23 SurveyUSA 52 32D+20
0.08
 D+20
Sep 10 Polling Company 42 34D+8
0.04
 D+10
Sep 3 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 48 35D+13
0.03
 D+13
Sep 26 YouGov 52 39D+13
0.02
 D+14
Aug 3 SurveyUSA 52 33D+19
0.00
 D+19
Aug 26 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.00
 D+13
May 25 Public Policy Polling 50 36D+14
0.00
 D+12
Jun 7 SurveyUSA 50 32D+18
0.00
 D+18
Jul 15 YouGov 55 41D+14
0.00
 D+15
Apr 29 Vox Populi Communications 41 45R+4
0.00
 D+1
May 22 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 47 37D+10
0.00
 D+10
Apr 2 Harper Polling 46 34D+12
0.00
 D+13
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average50.832.3D+18.5
Adjusted polling average51.132.4D+18.8
State fundamentals48.740.4D+8.4
Now-cast50.933.2D+17.7
Projected vote share57.239.5D+17.7
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Jack Reed vs. Mark Zaccaria

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 65 20D+45
0.48
 D+46
Sep 26 YouGov 64 22D+42
0.03
 D+43
Aug 26 YouGov 52 32D+20
0.00
 D+21
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average64.920.2D+44.7
Adjusted polling average65.019.4D+45.6
State fundamentals61.827.3D+34.5
Now-cast63.722.6D+41.1
Projected vote share70.529.5D+41.1
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Brad Hutto vs. Lindsey Graham

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 28 43R+15
0.56
 R+14
Oct 17 Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 29 49R+20
0.33
 R+20
Sep 25 Winthrop U. 28 46R+18
0.14
 R+18
Sep 26 YouGov 27 44R+17
0.03
 R+16
Jul 10 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 30 49R+19
0.00
 R+19
Aug 26 YouGov 29 42R+13
0.00
 R+12
Jul 18 Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 33 45R+12
0.00
 R+12
Jul 10 Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 33 46R+13
0.00
 R+13
Jul 15 YouGov 38 51R+13
0.00
 R+12
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average28.345.3R+17.0
Adjusted polling average28.444.9R+16.5
State fundamentals30.649.2R+18.6
Now-cast28.946.0R+17.1
Projected vote share35.652.7R+17.1
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Joyce Dickerson vs. Tim Scott

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 28 57R+29
0.56
 R+28
Oct 17 Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 31 58R+27
0.33
 R+27
Sep 25 Winthrop U. 32 52R+21
0.14
 R+20
Sep 26 YouGov 31 54R+23
0.03
 R+22
Jul 10 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 31 53R+22
0.00
 R+22
Aug 26 YouGov 33 54R+21
0.00
 R+20
Jul 15 YouGov 40 54R+14
0.00
 R+13
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average29.556.6R+27.1
Adjusted polling average29.656.2R+26.6
State fundamentals37.152.0R+14.9
Now-cast31.455.1R+23.7
Projected vote share36.760.4R+23.7
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Rick Weiland vs. Larry Pressler vs. Mike Rounds

Polling Firm Dem Ind Rep Weight adjusted margin
Oct 24 SurveyUSA 32 19 43
0.93
 R+11
Oct 22 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 33 13 42
0.71
 R+8
Oct 21 Marist College 29 16 43
0.66
 R+14
Oct 26 Monmouth University 31 19 45
0.66
 R+14
Oct 24 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 31 20 45
0.46
 R+14
Oct 20 YouGov 25 17 38
0.39
 R+12
Oct 10 Harper Polling 33 23 37
0.23
 R+3
Oct 3 SurveyUSA 28 32 35
0.20
 R+7
Sep 23 ccAdvertising 17 17 39
0.10
 R+18
Sep 26 Nielson Brothers Polling 26 24 39
0.07
 R+14
Sep 26 YouGov 27 12 42
0.03
 R+14
Sep 5 SurveyUSA 28 25 39
0.03
 R+11
Aug 26 YouGov 29 6 43
0.00
 R+13
Jul 26 Nielson Brothers Polling 30 14 43
0.00
 R+13
Jul 15 YouGov 34 — 61
0.00
 R+26
May 8 SurveyUSA 30 17 44
0.00
 R+14
Jun 5 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 29 18 44
0.00
 R+15
Feb 26 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 31 — 51
0.00
 R+20
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average30.242.1R+11.9
Adjusted polling average30.742.0R+11.3
State fundamentals26.344.4R+18.1
Now-cast30.442.2R+11.8
Projected vote share34.045.7R+11.8
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Gordon Ball vs. Lamar Alexander

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 24 Middle Tennessee State U. 26 44R+18
0.51
 R+18
Oct 20 YouGov 33 55R+22
0.50
 R+21
Sep 26 YouGov 32 53R+21
0.03
 R+20
Aug 12 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 32 47R+15
0.01
 R+15
Aug 26 YouGov 32 47R+15
0.00
 R+14
Jul 15 YouGov 33 48R+15
0.00
 R+14
Apr 30 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 25 51R+26
0.00
 R+26
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average29.549.5R+19.9
Adjusted polling average30.750.2R+19.5
State fundamentals30.758.3R+27.6
Now-cast30.752.2R+21.5
Projected vote share37.458.8R+21.5
Chance of winning<1%>99%

David Alameel vs. John Cornyn

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 35 57R+22
0.65
 R+21
Oct 15 University of Texas, online 31 57R+26
0.37
 R+26
Oct 2 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 29 50R+21
0.15
 R+21
Sep 18 Texas Lyceum 30 48R+18
0.09
 R+18
Sep 26 YouGov 35 55R+20
0.01
 R+19
Aug 5 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 29 47R+18
0.00
 R+18
Aug 26 YouGov 34 55R+21
0.00
 R+20
Jun 4 University of Texas, online 25 36R+11
0.00
 R+14
Jul 15 YouGov 38 55R+17
0.00
 R+16
Apr 12 Public Policy Polling 32 49R+17
0.00
 R+19
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average32.855.5R+22.7
Adjusted polling average33.555.7R+22.2
State fundamentals32.856.2R+23.4
Now-cast33.455.8R+22.5
Projected vote share37.660.0R+22.5
Chance of winning<1%>99%

Mark Warner vs. Ed Gillespie

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 29 Vox Populi Communications 44 40D+4
0.58
 D+9
Oct 20 YouGov 49 39D+10
0.57
 D+11
Oct 26 Christopher Newport University 51 44D+7
0.54
 D+7
Oct 23 Roanoke College 45 32D+13
0.40
 D+9
Oct 4 PSRA 47 37D+10
0.20
 D+10
Sep 20 Quinnipiac University 48 39D+9
0.16
 D+11
Sep 23 Public Policy Polling 48 35D+13
0.13
 D+12
Oct 2 Christopher Newport University 51 39D+12
0.04
 D+12
Sep 26 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.02
 D+13
Sep 16 Roanoke College 46 27D+19
0.01
 D+15
Jul 29 Hampton University 54 30D+24
0.01
 D+18
Sep 5 Christopher Newport University 53 31D+22
0.00
 D+22
Aug 26 YouGov 51 39D+12
0.00
 D+13
Jun 23 ccAdvertising 33 21D+12
0.00
 D+16
Jun 12 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 53 36D+17
0.00
 D+17
Jul 17 Roanoke College 47 22D+25
0.00
 D+17
Jul 15 YouGov 53 43D+10
0.00
 D+11
Apr 2 Public Policy Polling 49 35D+14
0.00
 D+12
Mar 22 Quinnipiac University 46 31D+15
0.00
 D+14
Feb 5 Harper Polling 44 38D+6
0.00
 D+7
Feb 25 Roanoke College 56 29D+27
0.00
 D+19
Jan 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 51 37D+14
0.00
 D+14
Jan 19 Christopher Newport University 50 30D+20
0.00
 D+16
Nov 22 Polling Company 51 33D+18
0.00
 D+17
Jan 15 Roanoke College 50 21D+29
0.00
 D+21
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average47.538.8D+8.8
Adjusted polling average48.338.9D+9.4
State fundamentals49.040.0D+9.0
Now-cast48.439.0D+9.4
Projected vote share54.745.3D+9.4
Chance of winning>99%<1%

Natalie Tennant vs. Shelley Moore Capito

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 34 56R+22
0.48
 R+21
Oct 1 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 39 50R+11
0.14
 R+11
Sep 26 YouGov 33 56R+23
0.03
 R+22
Aug 19 R.L. Repass & Partners 37 54R+17
0.02
 R+17
Aug 26 YouGov 32 55R+23
0.00
 R+22
Aug 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 33 50R+17
0.00
 R+17
Jul 15 YouGov 43 51R+8
0.00
 R+7
May 21 R.L. Repass & Partners 38 49R+11
0.00
 R+11
Apr 17 Vox Populi Communications 33 49R+16
0.00
 R+14
May 15 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 39 48R+9
0.00
 R+9
Jan 30 Clarity Campaign Labs 39 45R+6
0.00
 R+11
Feb 20 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 35 49R+14
0.00
 R+14
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average35.054.7R+19.7
Adjusted polling average35.354.2R+18.9
State fundamentals39.948.4R+8.5
Now-cast36.952.2R+15.3
Projected vote share41.256.5R+15.3
Chance of winning1%99%

Charlie Hardy vs. Mike Enzi

Polling Firm Dem Rep margin Weight adjusted margin
Oct 20 YouGov 27 67R+40
0.27
 R+39
Sep 26 YouGov 17 75R+58
0.04
 R+57
Aug 21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 27 63R+36
0.02
 R+36
Aug 26 YouGov 21 66R+45
0.01
 R+44
Jul 15 YouGov 23 68R+45
0.00
 R+44
FiveThirtyEight analysisDemRepMargin
Polling average25.767.7R+41.9
Adjusted polling average25.967.0R+41.1
State fundamentals23.166.0R+43.0
Now-cast24.566.5R+42.1
Projected vote share28.070.1R+42.1
Chance of winning<1%>99%
The weights for each poll are based in part on FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings. A ★ indicates a special election.
Harry Enten, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Al Johri, Ritchie King, Allison McCann, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver contributed to this project. Please let us know if you find any bugs.

How The Math Works Out

How many seats aren’t up for election?

Seat was up in 2010, up again in 2016

Seat was up in 2012, up again in 2018

9
Dem

22
Rep

+25
Dem

+8
Rep

34
Dem

30
Rep

How many 2014 seats are pretty much decided?

Elections where model is more than 95% confident of outcome

11
Dem

17
Rep

How many more seats does each party need to control the Senate?

Democrats

Republicans

50 - 34 - 11 = 5

51 - 30 - 17 = 4

Seats needed
to control Senate

Carry-over
seats

Likely 2014
wins

Seats still
to go

Which competitive elections will decide Senate control?

Elections where model is less than 95% confident of outcome

8
Battleground seats

Harry Enten, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Al Johri, Ritchie King, Allison McCann, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver contributed to this project. Please let us know if you find any bugs.