Updated 4:33 PM EDT | May 22, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Premier League
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/21
Swansea City2
47%29%
West Brom1
25%
SWAWBA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG1.91.0
5/21
Watford0
10%18%
Man. City5
72%
WATMNC
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG0.94.1
Non-shot xG0.53.1
5/21
Leicester City1
44%26%
Bournemouth1
30%
LEIBOU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.70.8
Non-shot xG2.81.4
5/21
Hull City1
6%15%
Tottenham7
79%
HCYTOT
Adjusted goals1.16.5
Shot-based xG1.04.0
Non-shot xG0.73.1
5/21
Southampton0
49%28%
Stoke City1
23%
SOUSTK
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG1.81.8
5/21
Burnley1
47%28%
West Ham2
26%
BRNWHU
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
5/21
Arsenal3
60%22%
Everton1
18%
ARSEVE
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG3.32.1
Non-shot xG2.61.9
5/21
Man. United2
68%22%
Crystal Palace0
10%
MANCRY
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.01.1
5/21
Liverpool3
77%16%
Middlesbrough0
6%
LIVMID
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG2.01.0
5/21
Chelsea5
84%12%
Sunderland1
4%
CHESUN
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG2.60.5
Non-shot xG4.10.1
5/18
Leicester City1
17%24%
Tottenham6
58%
LEITOT
Adjusted goals1.15.3
Shot-based xG0.82.8
Non-shot xG0.81.9
5/17
Southampton0
25%29%
Man. United0
46%
SOUMAN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Chelsea93 pts
2.6
0.8
30.03.05.0+5293
Tottenham86 pts
2.5
0.7
26.08.04.0+6086
Man. City78 pts
2.7
0.7
23.09.06.0+4178
Liverpool76 pts
2.3
0.8
22.010.06.0+3676
Arsenal75 pts
2.5
1.0
23.06.09.0+3375
Man. United69 pts
1.9
0.7
18.015.05.0+2569
Everton61 pts
1.8
1.0
17.010.011.0+1861
Southampton46 pts
1.5
1.0
12.010.016.0-746
Bournemouth46 pts
1.7
1.3
12.010.016.0-1246
West Ham45 pts
1.5
1.2
12.09.017.0-1745
West Brom45 pts
1.3
1.1
12.09.017.0-845
Stoke City44 pts
1.5
1.1
11.011.016.0-1544
Leicester City44 pts
1.6
1.2
12.08.018.0-1544
Swansea City41 pts
1.5
1.2
12.05.021.0-2541
Crystal Palace41 pts
1.5
1.2
12.05.021.0-1341
Burnley40 pts
1.4
1.2
11.07.020.0-1640
Watford40 pts
1.4
1.3
11.07.020.0-2840
Hull City34 pts
1.3
1.6
9.07.022.0-4334
Middlesbrough28 pts
1.1
1.3
5.013.020.0-2628
Sunderland24 pts
1.1
1.4
6.06.026.0-4024
Forecast from

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