Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Premier League
Upcoming
4/1
Liverpool
57%
23%
Everton
20%
4/1
Chelsea
78%
16%
Crystal Palace
6%
4/1
Man. United
72%
20%
West Brom
8%
4/1
Burnley
20%
26%
Tottenham
54%
4/1
Hull City
33%
27%
West Ham
40%
4/1
Leicester City
42%
28%
Stoke City
30%
4/1
Watford
54%
26%
Sunderland
20%
4/1
Southampton
54%
25%
Bournemouth
21%
4/2
Swansea City
48%
28%
Middlesbrough
24%
4/2
Arsenal
33%
24%
Man. City
43%
4/4
Burnley
42%
29%
Stoke City
29%
4/4
Leicester City
57%
25%
Sunderland
18%
4/4
Watford
44%
28%
West Brom
28%
4/4
Man. United
58%
25%
Everton
17%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Man. City1
56%23%
Liverpool1
21%
MNCLIV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.12.3
Non-shot xG2.82.2
3/19
Tottenham2
64%23%
Southampton1
13%
TOTSOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG1.50.8
3/19
Middlesbrough1
15%26%
Man. United3
59%
MIDMAN
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.32.3
Non-shot xG2.11.3
3/18
Bournemouth2
50%24%
Swansea City0
26%
BOUSWA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.5
Non-shot xG1.41.3
3/18
Stoke City1
17%25%
Chelsea2
58%
STKCHE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.7
Non-shot xG0.82.2
3/18
Crystal Palace1
45%27%
Watford0
28%
CRYWAT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.40.2
Non-shot xG0.91.2
3/18
Sunderland0
35%29%
Burnley0
37%
SUNBRN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG1.21.7
3/18
West Ham2
49%26%
Leicester City3
25%
WHULEI
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.31.8
Non-shot xG2.00.9
3/18
Everton4
68%21%
Hull City0
11%
EVEHCY
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG2.50.4
Non-shot xG2.30.6
3/18
West Brom3
18%22%
Arsenal1
60%
WBAARS
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.81.1
Non-shot xG1.31.6
3/12
Liverpool2
73%18%
Burnley1
10%
LIVBRN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG1.21.0
3/11
Bournemouth3
42%26%
West Ham2
33%
BOUWHU
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.71.3
Non-shot xG2.31.3
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Chelsea69 pts
2.3
0.6
28.55.14.5+5091>99%95%
Tottenham59 pts
2.1
0.8
23.010.34.7+447990%3%
Man. City57 pts
2.4
0.7
23.28.16.8+357883%2%
Liverpool56 pts
2.4
0.9
21.89.86.4+367570%<1%
Man. United52 pts
2.1
0.7
19.712.65.6+2672<1%33%<1%
Arsenal50 pts
2.4
1.1
20.77.49.8+2970<1%22%<1%
Everton50 pts
1.9
0.9
17.710.210.2+2263<1%2%<1%
West Brom43 pts
1.4
1.2
14.19.214.7-552<1%<1%<1%
Southampton33 pts
1.7
1.0
13.08.816.2-448<1%<1%
Stoke City36 pts
1.5
1.1
12.011.414.6-1047<1%<1%
West Ham33 pts
1.7
1.3
11.78.218.1-16431%<1%
Bournemouth33 pts
1.7
1.4
11.78.118.2-16431%<1%
Burnley32 pts
1.4
1.1
11.77.518.8-13432%<1%
Leicester City30 pts
1.5
1.2
11.08.418.5-18424%<1%
Watford31 pts
1.5
1.3
10.69.318.1-21415%<1%
Swansea City27 pts
1.6
1.4
10.65.222.1-313726%
Crystal Palace28 pts
1.4
1.2
10.26.321.5-183723%<1%
Hull City24 pts
1.2
1.4
8.38.321.5-373370%
Middlesbrough22 pts
1.1
1.1
6.312.519.1-203275%
Sunderland20 pts
1.2
1.4
7.17.423.5-342992%
Forecast from

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