Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2020

Brazil

Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 7:14 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/31
Botafogo
44%
26%
Ceará
30%
10/31
Corinthians
33%
27%
Internacional
40%
10/31
Coritiba
45%
27%
Atlético
28%
10/31
Fortaleza
45%
29%
Fluminense
26%
11/1
Flamengo
59%
23%
São Paulo
18%
11/1
Sport Recife
34%
29%
Atlético-PR
37%
11/1
Santos
48%
26%
Bahía
27%
11/1
Goiás
38%
26%
Vasco da Gama
36%
11/2
Palmeiras
44%
25%
Atlético Mineiro
31%
11/2
Grêmio
58%
24%
Bragantino
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/25
Internacional2
34%25%
Flamengo2
41%
INTFLA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.72.3
Non-shot xG0.92.5
10/25
Atlético-PR1
35%29%
Grêmio2
36%
APGGRE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.20.8
Non-shot xG0.70.8
10/25
Atlético0
34%26%
Palmeiras3
40%
GOIPAL
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG1.11.8
Non-shot xG1.60.9
10/25
Fluminense3
39%28%
Santos1
33%
FLUSANT
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.80.9
Non-shot xG1.30.8
10/24
Atlético Mineiro0
66%19%
Sport Recife0
15%
AMGSPO
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.60.1
Non-shot xG2.80.1
10/24
Ceará2
51%26%
Coritiba1
23%
CEACTB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.91.0
Non-shot xG1.21.2
10/24
Bragantino2
57%23%
Goiás0
20%
BRAGOI
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG2.00.8
Non-shot xG0.70.6
10/21
Vasco da Gama1
41%27%
Corinthians2
31%
VASCOR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.11.6
Non-shot xG1.81.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Flamengo35 pts
71.1
2.0
0.9
+3175<1%55%
Internacional35 pts
59.7
1.5
0.9
+2267<1%14%
Atlético Mineiro32 pts
60.9
1.7
1.0
+1966<1%13%
São Paulo27 pts
61.6
1.5
0.8
+1765<1%11%
Grêmio24 pts
62.6
1.6
0.9
+1460<1%3%
Palmeiras25 pts
58.9
1.5
1.0
+9591%2%
Santos27 pts
55.1
1.4
1.0
+5562%<1%
Fluminense29 pts
51.1
1.3
1.1
+6552%<1%
Fortaleza24 pts
50.2
1.2
1.0
+4535%<1%
Ceará22 pts
48.9
1.3
1.1
-64814%<1%
Bahía19 pts
50.6
1.4
1.1
-44719%<1%
Corinthians21 pts
48.6
1.3
1.1
-84719%<1%
Atlético22 pts
43.2
1.2
1.3
-154529%<1%
Bragantino19 pts
48.3
1.3
1.1
-64431%<1%
Botafogo19 pts
45.7
1.2
1.2
-94433%<1%
Vasco da Gama18 pts
44.5
1.2
1.3
-124431%<1%
Atlético-PR16 pts
51.4
1.2
0.9
-74432%<1%
Sport Recife21 pts
40.5
1.2
1.4
-174238%<1%
Coritiba16 pts
42.0
1.1
1.3
-173858%<1%
Goiás11 pts
37.6
1.1
1.5
-263285%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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