Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2019 season

Brazil

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 7:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 15-21
10/21
Bahía
51%
28%
Ceará
21%
10/21
Botafogo
57%
25%
CSA
18%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
Atlético-PR1
37%27%
Palmeiras1
36%
APGPAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.91.1
10/20
Chapecoense2
49%27%
Goiás2
25%
CHAGOI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.8
Non-shot xG1.31.1
10/20
Flamengo2
81%14%
Fluminense0
5%
FLAFLU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG1.60.6
10/20
Internacional0
54%27%
Vasco da Gama1
20%
INTVAS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.01.8
Non-shot xG2.61.0
10/20
São Paulo1
70%22%
Avaí0
8%
SPFCAVA
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.60.2
Non-shot xG3.70.2
10/20
Atlético Mineiro2
41%25%
Santos0
33%
AMGSANT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.4
Non-shot xG0.70.7
10/19
Corinthians1
48%29%
Cruzeiro2
23%
CORCEC
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.82.3
Non-shot xG1.71.2
10/19
Fortaleza2
33%25%
Grêmio1
42%
FORGRE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.6
Non-shot xG1.21.4
10/17
Fluminense1
43%25%
Atlético-PR2
32%
FLUAPG
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
10/17
Avaí0
33%29%
Internacional2
38%
AVAINT
Adjusted goals0.01.4
Shot-based xG0.92.5
Non-shot xG0.62.9
10/17
Santos2
59%25%
Ceará1
17%
SANTCEA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.20.7
10/16
Vasco da Gama2
58%26%
Botafogo1
17%
VASBOT
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.9
Non-shot xG0.91.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Flamengo64 pts
74.1
2.0
0.7
+488797%
Palmeiras54 pts
67.0
1.6
0.7
+28742%
Santos51 pts
60.7
1.5
0.9
+1770<1%
São Paulo46 pts
58.7
1.3
0.8
+1262<1%<1%
Grêmio41 pts
62.2
1.7
1.0
+1959<1%<1%
Corinthians44 pts
53.6
1.2
0.9
+1059<1%<1%
Bahía41 pts
56.8
1.3
0.9
+858<1%<1%
Atlético-PR39 pts
58.7
1.5
1.0
+1457<1%<1%
Internacional40 pts
55.7
1.4
0.9
+856<1%<1%
Atlético Mineiro35 pts
54.3
1.5
1.2
-151<1%<1%
Vasco da Gama37 pts
52.1
1.3
1.0
-751<1%<1%
Goiás38 pts
40.4
1.2
1.4
-17492%<1%
Botafogo30 pts
43.6
1.1
1.2
-94416%<1%
Fortaleza31 pts
44.1
1.2
1.3
-104418%<1%
Cruzeiro28 pts
52.8
1.3
1.0
-114421%
Fluminense29 pts
48.6
1.3
1.2
-114421%
Ceará26 pts
48.7
1.2
1.1
-54140%
CSA26 pts
35.9
1.0
1.4
-313683%
Chapecoense18 pts
39.3
1.1
1.3
-262999%
Avaí17 pts
35.4
1.0
1.4
-3527>99%
Forecast from
Season

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