Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2019 season

Brazil

Updated Dec. 8, 2019, at 4:05 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
December 3-9
12/8
Internacional2
44%26%
Atlético Mineiro1
29%
INTAMG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.00.9
Non-shot xG1.80.8
12/8
Avaí0
28%27%
Atlético-PR0
45%
AVAAPG
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
12/8
Cruzeiro0
41%28%
Palmeiras2
31%
CECPAL
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.40.4
Non-shot xG1.20.8
12/8
Vasco da Gama1
48%27%
Chapecoense1
25%
VASCHA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG4.20.5
Non-shot xG1.90.5
12/8
Goiás3
33%24%
Grêmio2
43%
GOIGRE
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.22.3
Non-shot xG1.80.8
12/8
Botafogo1
31%29%
Ceará1
40%
BOTCEA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.8
Non-shot xG0.81.6
12/8
CSA1
32%28%
São Paulo2
40%
CSASPFC
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.40.9
Non-shot xG1.01.1
12/8
Corinthians1
43%28%
Fluminense2
29%
CORFLU
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.61.1
12/8
Fortaleza2
41%27%
Bahía1
33%
FORBAH
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG1.30.4
12/8
Santos4
38%25%
Flamengo0
37%
SANTFLA
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG1.70.9
12/5
Flamengo6
67%19%
Avaí1
14%
FLAAVA
Adjusted goals5.51.1
Shot-based xG3.10.5
Non-shot xG2.40.2
12/5
Grêmio2
52%26%
Cruzeiro0
22%
GRECEC
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG1.31.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Flamengo90 pts
71.7
2.1
0.9
+4990
Palmeiras74 pts
66.5
1.7
0.8
+2974
Santos74 pts
65.3
1.6
0.8
+2774
Grêmio65 pts
62.7
1.7
0.9
+2565
Atlético-PR64 pts
62.0
1.4
0.8
+1964
São Paulo63 pts
57.1
1.3
0.8
+963
Internacional57 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
+557
Corinthians56 pts
52.9
1.3
1.0
+856
Fortaleza53 pts
47.7
1.3
1.2
+153
Goiás52 pts
43.2
1.3
1.4
-1852
Bahía49 pts
50.5
1.3
1.1
+149
Vasco da Gama49 pts
51.8
1.3
1.1
-649
Atlético Mineiro48 pts
53.5
1.4
1.1
-448
Fluminense46 pts
52.9
1.3
1.0
-846
Botafogo43 pts
39.4
1.0
1.3
-1443
Ceará39 pts
49.8
1.3
1.1
-539
Cruzeiro36 pts
50.9
1.2
1.0
-1936
Chapecoense32 pts
39.9
1.0
1.3
-2132
CSA32 pts
35.8
1.0
1.4
-3432
Avaí20 pts
32.4
0.9
1.4
-4420
Forecast from
Season

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