Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2019 season

Brazil

Updated June 13, 2019, at 9:06 p.m.

Upcoming matches
July
7/13
Flamengo
79%
14%
Goiás
6%
7/13
Fluminense
51%
26%
Ceará
23%
7/13
Fortaleza
54%
26%
Avaí
21%
7/13
Corinthians
68%
22%
CSA
10%
7/13
Chapecoense
43%
25%
Atlético Mineiro
31%
7/13
Atlético-PR
47%
26%
Internacional
27%
7/13
São Paulo
25%
28%
Palmeiras
47%
7/13
Cruzeiro
57%
24%
Botafogo
19%
7/13
Bahía
38%
27%
Santos
35%
7/13
Grêmio
64%
22%
Vasco da Gama
14%
7/20
Atlético Mineiro
64%
21%
Fortaleza
15%
7/20
Corinthians
36%
27%
Flamengo
36%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
June
6/13
Goiás2
37%25%
Atlético-PR1
38%
GOIAPG
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/13
Chapecoense1
48%25%
Fluminense1
27%
CHAFLU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG1.81.1
6/13
Atlético Mineiro1
48%26%
São Paulo1
26%
AMGSPFC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.50.3
6/13
Palmeiras2
88%10%
Avaí0
2%
PALAVA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.2
Non-shot xG1.60.6
6/13
Vasco da Gama1
50%27%
Ceará0
23%
VASCEA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.00.6
6/12
Internacional3
56%25%
Bahía1
18%
INTBAH
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG1.61.7
Non-shot xG1.11.4
6/12
CSA0
20%22%
Flamengo2
58%
CSAFLA
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.42.6
Non-shot xG0.91.6
6/12
Santos1
59%25%
Corinthians0
16%
SANTCOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.1
Non-shot xG1.50.2
6/12
Fortaleza2
40%26%
Cruzeiro1
34%
FORCEC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.5
Non-shot xG1.01.6
6/12
Botafogo0
35%27%
Grêmio1
38%
BOTGRE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.30.9
Non-shot xG1.21.8
6/10
Goiás3
46%26%
Chapecoense1
28%
GOICHA
Adjusted goals2.31.1
Shot-based xG2.61.3
Non-shot xG1.50.9
6/9
CSA1
42%27%
Botafogo2
31%
CSABOT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.7
Non-shot xG1.91.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Palmeiras25 pts
72.8
1.8
0.6
25.47.45.3+4583<1%65%
Flamengo17 pts
67.6
1.8
0.9
20.98.48.7+2871<1%14%
Santos20 pts
62.6
1.6
0.9
20.39.08.8+2070<1%11%
Internacional16 pts
59.1
1.5
0.9
17.98.311.8+14621%3%
Grêmio11 pts
62.2
1.6
0.9
16.99.012.2+12602%2%
Atlético Mineiro16 pts
54.5
1.5
1.1
16.78.013.3+6583%1%
Corinthians12 pts
54.5
1.2
0.9
15.111.111.9+7565%1%
São Paulo14 pts
55.3
1.3
0.9
14.512.610.9+6565%<1%
Bahía14 pts
53.6
1.4
1.0
15.49.213.4+2556%<1%
Atlético-PR10 pts
56.5
1.5
1.0
15.48.114.5+8547%<1%
Botafogo15 pts
44.7
1.1
1.2
13.57.217.2-114817%<1%
Goiás15 pts
43.9
1.2
1.3
13.47.017.5-124719%<1%
Cruzeiro8 pts
50.8
1.4
1.1
12.79.116.2-84721%<1%
Fluminense8 pts
47.8
1.3
1.2
12.19.116.9-74527%<1%
Ceará10 pts
46.5
1.1
1.1
11.98.517.6-74428%<1%
Vasco da Gama9 pts
46.2
1.2
1.2
11.110.116.8-154333%<1%
Chapecoense8 pts
45.4
1.2
1.2
11.29.217.5-124334%<1%
Fortaleza10 pts
40.8
1.1
1.3
11.18.018.8-184140%<1%
Avaí4 pts
38.1
1.0
1.3
7.211.119.7-243374%<1%
CSA6 pts
34.7
1.0
1.5
7.39.621.0-353278%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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