Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:03 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2018 season

Brazil

Updated Dec. 2, 2018, at 4:04 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/2
Grêmio1
49%29%
Corinthians0
23%
GRECOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG2.00.7
12/2
Bahía0
43%28%
Cruzeiro0
29%
BAHCEC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.40.7
12/2
Ceará0
45%28%
Vasco da Gama0
27%
CEAVAS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG0.80.7
12/2
Chapecoense1
49%28%
São Paulo0
22%
CHASPFC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.50.6
12/2
Fluminense1
50%28%
América Mineiro0
21%
FLUAMG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.32.8
Non-shot xG1.02.3
12/2
Sport Recife2
43%27%
Santos1
30%
SPOSANT
Adjusted goals1.61.1
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG0.70.7
12/2
Paraná1
28%27%
Internacional1
45%
PARINT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
12/2
Palmeiras3
62%22%
Vitória2
16%
PALVIT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.01.5
Non-shot xG2.10.6
12/1
Atlético Mineiro1
47%26%
Botafogo0
27%
AMGBOT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.40.7
Non-shot xG1.40.9
12/1
Flamengo1
48%26%
Atlético-PR2
26%
FLAAPG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.30.4
Non-shot xG1.10.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Palmeiras80 pts
69.6
1.7
0.7
23.011.04.0+3880
Flamengo72 pts
67.1
1.7
0.8
21.09.08.0+3072
Internacional69 pts
61.2
1.5
0.9
19.012.07.0+2269
Grêmio66 pts
65.7
1.6
0.7
18.012.08.0+2166
São Paulo63 pts
57.4
1.3
0.9
16.015.07.0+1263
Atlético Mineiro59 pts
59.5
1.6
1.0
17.08.013.0+1359
Atlético-PR57 pts
59.4
1.5
0.9
16.09.013.0+1757
Cruzeiro53 pts
55.8
1.3
0.9
14.011.013.0+053
Botafogo51 pts
51.3
1.3
1.0
13.012.013.0-851
Santos50 pts
56.4
1.4
0.9
13.011.014.0+650
Bahía48 pts
55.7
1.3
0.9
12.012.014.0-248
Fluminense45 pts
45.3
1.1
1.1
12.09.017.0-1445
Chapecoense44 pts
49.2
1.2
1.0
11.011.016.0-1644
Ceará44 pts
52.0
1.2
1.0
10.014.014.0-644
Corinthians44 pts
52.2
1.2
0.9
11.011.016.0-144
Vasco da Gama43 pts
51.6
1.3
1.0
10.013.015.0-743
Sport Recife42 pts
41.6
1.1
1.3
11.09.018.0-2242
América Mineiro40 pts
43.6
1.1
1.2
10.010.018.0-1740
Vitória37 pts
41.8
1.2
1.4
9.010.019.0-2737
Paraná23 pts
33.2
0.9
1.4
4.011.023.0-3923
Forecast from
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