Updated March 2, 2021, at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2020

Brazil

Updated Feb. 25, 2021, at 9:42 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 23 - March 1
2/25
Atlético3
45%28%
Coritiba1
27%
GOICTB
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG1.70.8
2/25
Internacional0
67%21%
Corinthians0
12%
INTCOR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG1.50.8
2/25
Bahía2
39%26%
Santos0
36%
BAHSANT
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.11.0
Non-shot xG1.01.8
2/25
Ceará2
48%25%
Botafogo1
28%
CEABOT
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.42.0
Non-shot xG1.41.8
2/25
Bragantino1
42%27%
Grêmio0
31%
BRAGRE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG1.41.3
2/25
Vasco da Gama3
41%28%
Goiás2
32%
VASGOI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.41.5
Non-shot xG1.61.5
2/25
São Paulo2
24%23%
Flamengo1
53%
SPFCFLA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.52.0
Non-shot xG0.32.2
2/25
Atlético-PR2
45%29%
Sport Recife0
25%
APGSPO
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG2.21.2
Non-shot xG1.31.3
2/25
Fluminense2
44%28%
Fortaleza0
28%
FLUFOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.10.7
2/25
Atlético Mineiro2
41%27%
Palmeiras0
32%
AMGPAL
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG1.11.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Flamengo71 pts
73.1
2.1
0.8
+2071
Internacional70 pts
63.3
1.6
0.8
+2670
Atlético Mineiro68 pts
61.2
1.6
1.0
+1968
São Paulo66 pts
58.5
1.5
0.9
+1866
Fluminense64 pts
54.4
1.3
1.0
+1364
Grêmio59 pts
57.0
1.5
1.0
+1359
Palmeiras58 pts
59.3
1.4
0.9
+1458
Santos54 pts
53.1
1.4
1.1
+154
Bragantino53 pts
60.6
1.5
0.9
+1053
Atlético-PR53 pts
51.9
1.2
1.0
+253
Ceará52 pts
51.0
1.4
1.1
+352
Corinthians51 pts
51.6
1.3
1.0
+051
Atlético50 pts
45.7
1.2
1.2
-550
Bahía44 pts
49.0
1.4
1.2
-1144
Sport Recife42 pts
40.4
1.0
1.3
-1942
Fortaleza41 pts
45.4
1.1
1.1
-1041
Vasco da Gama41 pts
41.1
1.1
1.3
-1941>99%
Goiás37 pts
39.7
1.2
1.4
-2237
Coritiba31 pts
35.1
1.0
1.4
-2331
Botafogo27 pts
41.3
1.2
1.4
-3027
Forecast from
Season

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