Updated Aug. 17, 2018 at 7:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2018 season

Brazil

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 8:52 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/18
Santos
57%
24%
Sport Recife
19%
8/18
Corinthians
36%
30%
Grêmio
33%
8/19
Atlético-PR
35%
27%
Flamengo
38%
8/19
Internacional
76%
19%
Paraná
5%
8/19
Botafogo
46%
24%
Atlético Mineiro
31%
8/19
Vitória
31%
24%
Palmeiras
45%
8/19
Cruzeiro
52%
26%
Bahía
21%
8/19
São Paulo
68%
21%
Chapecoense
11%
8/19
América Mineiro
44%
27%
Fluminense
29%
8/20
Vasco da Gama
55%
26%
Ceará
20%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/13
Fluminense0
34%28%
Internacional3
38%
FLUINT
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.51.2
8/12
Grêmio4
69%20%
Vitória0
11%
GREVIT
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG1.11.1
8/12
Palmeiras1
67%20%
Vasco da Gama0
13%
PALVAS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG1.20.8
8/12
Chapecoense2
48%28%
Corinthians1
24%
CHACOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.02.3
Non-shot xG1.40.5
8/12
Sport Recife1
31%26%
São Paulo3
43%
SPOSPFC
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.91.9
Non-shot xG1.11.7
8/12
Flamengo1
63%23%
Cruzeiro0
13%
FLACEC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.40.4
Non-shot xG1.10.8
8/12
Atlético Mineiro3
51%23%
Santos1
26%
AMGSANT
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.80.9
Non-shot xG1.20.9
8/12
Paraná1
40%29%
Botafogo1
31%
PARBOT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.32.2
Non-shot xG0.71.1
8/11
Bahía1
60%23%
América Mineiro0
17%
BAHAMG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.2
Non-shot xG1.90.5
8/11
Ceará0
41%28%
Atlético-PR0
31%
CEAAPG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.7
Non-shot xG1.11.2
8/8
Ceará1
39%28%
Santos1
32%
CEASANT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.80.9
8/6
Atlético Mineiro0
43%25%
Internacional1
32%
AMGINT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.41.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
São Paulo38 pts
63.3
1.6
0.9
20.99.87.2+2573<1%34%
Flamengo37 pts
64.2
1.6
0.8
20.59.08.5+2671<1%25%
Internacional35 pts
64.1
1.5
0.7
19.910.27.9+2570<1%22%
Grêmio33 pts
64.6
1.5
0.7
18.411.28.3+2366<1%10%
Palmeiras30 pts
64.2
1.6
0.8
17.810.89.4+2164<1%6%
Atlético Mineiro30 pts
57.0
1.7
1.2
17.17.613.3+959<1%2%
Cruzeiro25 pts
57.9
1.4
0.8
15.59.313.2+4562%<1%
Corinthians26 pts
55.9
1.3
0.9
14.610.413.0+8543%<1%
Bahía21 pts
54.4
1.4
1.1
12.811.313.9-35011%<1%
Botafogo22 pts
51.6
1.3
1.1
12.312.113.6-54912%<1%
Fluminense22 pts
50.3
1.3
1.1
12.98.916.2-84814%<1%
Santos18 pts
53.7
1.4
1.0
11.811.115.1-44620%<1%
Chapecoense21 pts
50.1
1.2
1.0
10.514.213.3-94623%<1%
Vasco da Gama19 pts
48.4
1.3
1.2
11.99.616.5-114526%<1%
Atlético-PR15 pts
53.4
1.3
1.0
11.111.315.6-14527%<1%
Sport Recife20 pts
46.1
1.3
1.2
11.19.917.0-154332%<1%
América Mineiro21 pts
42.8
1.1
1.2
11.58.018.5-154335%<1%
Vitória19 pts
44.3
1.4
1.4
10.98.618.5-244143%<1%
Ceará16 pts
43.3
1.1
1.1
8.212.117.7-193768%<1%
Paraná14 pts
39.9
1.0
1.2
7.410.120.5-283286%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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