Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 4:54 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Brasileirão

2018 season

Brazil

Updated Oct. 20, 2018, at 8:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/21
Palmeiras
76%
19%
Ceará
5%
10/21
Fluminense
43%
26%
Atlético Mineiro
31%
10/21
Vitória
45%
28%
Corinthians
28%
10/21
Paraná
19%
25%
Flamengo
56%
10/21
Cruzeiro
52%
27%
Chapecoense
21%
10/22
Internacional
62%
25%
Santos
13%
10/24
Cruzeiro
57%
27%
Ceará
16%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/20
São Paulo0
53%25%
Atlético-PR0
22%
SPFCAPG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.30.6
Non-shot xG1.41.0
10/20
Sport Recife2
37%26%
Vasco da Gama1
37%
SPOVAS
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.0
Non-shot xG0.71.2
10/20
América Mineiro1
31%29%
Grêmio1
40%
AMGGRE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.3
Non-shot xG0.90.5
10/20
Botafogo0
47%27%
Bahía1
27%
BOTBAH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG1.31.1
10/15
Ceará0
51%26%
Botafogo0
23%
CEABOT
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG1.70.4
10/14
Atlético-PR4
62%23%
Sport Recife0
15%
APGSPO
Adjusted goals3.40.0
Shot-based xG3.60.3
Non-shot xG2.60.4
10/14
Atlético Mineiro0
64%22%
América Mineiro0
14%
AMGAMG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.61.6
Non-shot xG1.31.6
10/14
Internacional3
53%27%
São Paulo1
20%
INTSPFC
Adjusted goals2.51.1
Shot-based xG3.01.3
Non-shot xG1.51.0
10/14
Vasco da Gama2
48%27%
Cruzeiro0
25%
VASCEC
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.6
Non-shot xG1.10.6
10/14
Palmeiras2
56%27%
Grêmio0
17%
PALGRE
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.70.5
10/14
Chapecoense0
59%23%
Vitória1
18%
CHAVIT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.5
Non-shot xG1.21.2
10/13
Bahía2
72%21%
Paraná0
8%
BAHPAR
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.70.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Palmeiras59 pts
70.4
1.7
0.6
22.410.05.6+357774%
Internacional56 pts
63.2
1.5
0.8
20.710.37.0+257216%
Flamengo55 pts
64.4
1.6
0.8
20.19.48.5+25709%
Grêmio52 pts
65.5
1.5
0.7
18.012.08.0+2466<1%
São Paulo53 pts
60.9
1.5
0.8
17.513.17.3+1666<1%
Atlético Mineiro46 pts
58.6
1.6
1.1
16.59.312.2+1459<1%<1%
Santos42 pts
56.9
1.3
0.8
14.311.412.3+754<1%<1%
Cruzeiro37 pts
55.9
1.3
0.9
13.312.712.0+053<1%<1%
Atlético-PR40 pts
59.3
1.5
0.9
14.49.014.5+1452<1%<1%
Fluminense37 pts
51.3
1.3
1.0
13.39.315.5-5492%<1%
Bahía37 pts
54.6
1.3
1.0
12.312.213.6-2493%<1%
Corinthians35 pts
51.0
1.2
1.0
11.910.515.7-14610%<1%
Botafogo35 pts
48.9
1.3
1.1
10.613.014.4-134518%<1%
Vasco da Gama34 pts
50.6
1.3
1.1
10.312.115.6-104331%
América Mineiro34 pts
43.0
1.0
1.1
10.112.115.8-134335%
Ceará31 pts
48.7
1.2
1.0
9.912.615.5-104239%<1%
Vitória32 pts
42.2
1.2
1.3
11.57.319.2-254239%<1%
Chapecoense31 pts
47.6
1.2
1.1
9.812.315.9-154244%
Sport Recife30 pts
40.0
1.1
1.3
9.97.920.1-283878%
Paraná17 pts
35.8
0.9
1.3
4.810.322.9-3825>99%
Forecast from
Season

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