Updated Apr. 22, 2018 at 9:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Brasileirão

2018 season

Brazil

Updated Apr. 22, 2018, at 8:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/23
Sport Recife
46%
27%
Botafogo
28%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/22
Grêmio0
52%26%
Atlético-PR0
22%
GREAPG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG2.81.0
4/22
Ceará0
36%27%
São Paulo0
38%
CEASPFC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.4
Non-shot xG0.80.9
4/22
Chapecoense1
46%28%
Vasco da Gama1
26%
CHAVAS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.7
Non-shot xG0.61.5
4/22
Fluminense1
44%26%
Cruzeiro0
30%
FLUCEC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.32.1
Non-shot xG0.82.2
4/22
Atlético Mineiro2
54%22%
Vitória1
24%
AMGVIT
Adjusted goals2.01.1
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG1.01.5
4/22
Palmeiras1
56%25%
Internacional0
19%
PALINT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.4
Non-shot xG0.60.8
4/22
Paraná0
34%27%
Corinthians4
39%
PARCOR
Adjusted goals0.03.6
Shot-based xG0.62.0
Non-shot xG1.01.0
4/21
Flamengo2
70%21%
América Mineiro0
9%
FLAAMG
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.91.6
Non-shot xG1.31.6
4/21
Bahía1
45%27%
Santos0
28%
BAHSANT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.7
Non-shot xG1.31.3
4/16
São Paulo1
62%22%
Paraná0
16%
SPFCPAR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.50.2
Non-shot xG0.90.6
4/16
Botafogo1
37%26%
Palmeiras1
37%
BOTPAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.3
Non-shot xG1.01.2
4/15
Atlético-PR5
51%27%
Chapecoense1
22%
APGCHA
Adjusted goals4.31.1
Shot-based xG2.91.3
Non-shot xG1.71.3
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Palmeiras4 pts
57.9
1.6
1.0
18.09.810.2+17643%16%
Corinthians6 pts
55.8
1.4
1.0
17.89.410.8+16633%14%
Flamengo4 pts
57.0
1.5
1.0
17.410.210.4+16624%14%
Grêmio4 pts
55.0
1.4
1.0
16.810.510.7+12615%11%
Atlético Mineiro3 pts
52.3
1.5
1.2
16.08.813.3+65710%6%
Atlético-PR4 pts
51.2
1.3
1.1
15.310.412.2+9569%6%
São Paulo4 pts
51.3
1.3
1.0
15.010.812.2+55610%5%
Internacional3 pts
50.3
1.2
1.0
14.99.913.2+55511%4%
Santos3 pts
49.6
1.3
1.1
14.69.613.8+35314%4%
Cruzeiro0 pts
52.0
1.4
1.1
14.69.413.9+45314%4%
Vasco da Gama4 pts
48.3
1.2
1.1
14.210.813.1+15313%4%
Vitória1 pt
48.6
1.4
1.3
13.69.914.5-15119%3%
Bahía3 pts
46.8
1.3
1.2
13.89.414.8-35119%3%
Fluminense3 pts
45.8
1.3
1.3
13.59.215.2-45021%2%
Botafogo1 pt
45.7
1.2
1.2
12.610.814.5-44924%2%
Chapecoense1 pt
44.2
1.2
1.3
11.910.415.7-104630%1%
Sport Recife0 pts
42.9
1.2
1.3
11.89.416.8-124535%1%
América Mineiro3 pts
37.1
1.0
1.3
10.39.518.2-164048%<1%
Ceará1 pt
38.5
1.1
1.4
9.910.118.0-184050%<1%
Paraná0 pts
36.7
1.1
1.5
9.48.819.8-253759%<1%
Forecast from
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