Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Brasileirão

2019 season

Brazil

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 7:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 20-26
8/21
Atlético-PR
52%
26%
São Paulo
22%
8/24
Atlético Mineiro
50%
26%
Bahía
24%
8/24
Grêmio
46%
26%
Atlético-PR
28%
8/25
Santos
72%
18%
Fortaleza
10%
8/25
Goiás
38%
28%
Internacional
35%
8/25
Vasco da Gama
40%
28%
São Paulo
32%
8/25
CSA
29%
28%
Cruzeiro
44%
8/25
Avaí
31%
30%
Corinthians
38%
8/25
Ceará
24%
24%
Flamengo
52%
8/26
Botafogo
50%
26%
Chapecoense
24%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Chapecoense1
56%24%
Avaí0
19%
CHAAVA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.2
Non-shot xG0.90.8
8/18
Bahía1
62%23%
Goiás1
15%
BAHGOI
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.60.4
Non-shot xG1.00.8
8/18
Cruzeiro2
30%26%
Santos0
44%
CECSANT
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG2.00.1
Non-shot xG2.00.3
8/18
São Paulo1
59%25%
Ceará0
16%
SPFCCEA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.7
Non-shot xG1.10.7
8/18
Fluminense0
70%19%
CSA1
10%
FLUCSA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG3.40.4
8/17
Grêmio1
32%27%
Palmeiras1
41%
GREPAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.5
Non-shot xG0.81.1
8/17
Vasco da Gama1
27%24%
Flamengo4
48%
VASFLA
Adjusted goals1.13.9
Shot-based xG2.43.0
Non-shot xG0.82.0
8/17
Atlético-PR1
55%23%
Atlético Mineiro0
22%
APGAMG
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
8/17
Corinthians2
59%26%
Botafogo0
15%
CORBOT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.4
Non-shot xG1.00.8
8/17
Fortaleza0
38%27%
Internacional1
35%
FORINT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.4
Non-shot xG1.20.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Palmeiras30 pts
70.8
1.7
0.7
+3475<1%35%
Flamengo30 pts
68.8
2.0
0.9
+3374<1%31%
Santos32 pts
62.5
1.6
0.9
+2271<1%20%
São Paulo27 pts
57.5
1.4
0.9
+1563<1%4%
Atlético-PR22 pts
61.5
1.6
0.9
+1962<1%4%
Corinthians27 pts
57.1
1.3
0.8
+1462<1%2%
Atlético Mineiro27 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
+860<1%2%
Internacional24 pts
55.9
1.3
0.9
+8581%<1%
Grêmio18 pts
60.0
1.5
0.9
+6553%<1%
Bahía21 pts
54.5
1.3
0.9
+5553%<1%
Botafogo22 pts
46.8
1.2
1.1
-6507%<1%
Ceará20 pts
47.3
1.2
1.1
-24713%<1%
Vasco da Gama17 pts
47.0
1.2
1.2
-134523%<1%
Cruzeiro14 pts
50.7
1.3
1.1
-104523%<1%
Goiás18 pts
41.4
1.2
1.3
-214232%<1%
Fluminense12 pts
50.4
1.4
1.2
-94233%<1%
Fortaleza17 pts
41.8
1.2
1.3
-164233%<1%
Chapecoense13 pts
43.2
1.2
1.3
-203949%<1%
CSA11 pts
32.3
0.9
1.5
-402989%<1%
Avaí6 pts
38.6
1.0
1.3
-292890%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments