Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 1:06 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Brasileirão

2017 season

Brazil

Updated Dec. 3, 2017 at 4:28 PM

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
12/3
Atlético1
45%26%
Fluminense1
29%
GOIFLU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.3
Non-shot xG1.01.5
12/3
Vitória1
43%26%
Flamengo2
31%
VITFLA
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG1.71.8
Non-shot xG1.50.6
12/3
Vasco da Gama2
55%28%
Ponte Preta1
17%
VASPON
Adjusted goals2.01.1
Shot-based xG2.71.1
Non-shot xG1.30.6
12/3
São Paulo1
53%25%
Bahía1
22%
SPFCBAH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.4
Non-shot xG1.31.1
12/3
Atlético-PR3
40%27%
Palmeiras0
33%
APGPAL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.30.8
Non-shot xG0.91.2
12/3
Botafogo2
42%28%
Cruzeiro2
30%
BOTCEC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.4
Non-shot xG2.30.7
12/3
Chapecoense2
55%27%
Coritiba1
19%
CHACTB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG1.61.2
12/3
Sport Recife1
38%27%
Corinthians0
35%
SPOCOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.51.2
Non-shot xG1.30.8
12/3
Atlético Mineiro4
50%26%
Grêmio3
24%
AMGGRE
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG3.62.0
Non-shot xG2.90.6
12/3
Santos1
61%23%
Avaí1
15%
SANTAVA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG1.51.4
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Corinthians72 pts
55.6
1.4
1.0
21.09.08.0+2072
Palmeiras63 pts
56.2
1.6
1.1
19.06.013.0+1663
Santos63 pts
48.6
1.3
1.1
17.012.09.0+1063
Grêmio62 pts
50.9
1.3
1.1
18.08.012.0+1962
Cruzeiro57 pts
52.1
1.4
1.1
15.012.011.0+857
Flamengo56 pts
56.3
1.4
1.0
15.011.012.0+1156
Vasco da Gama56 pts
46.0
1.1
1.1
15.011.012.0-756
Atlético Mineiro54 pts
55.3
1.7
1.3
14.012.012.0+354
Chapecoense54 pts
48.6
1.2
1.1
15.09.014.0-254
Botafogo53 pts
46.8
1.2
1.2
14.011.013.0+353
Atlético-PR51 pts
51.3
1.3
1.0
14.09.015.0+251
São Paulo50 pts
50.1
1.3
1.1
13.011.014.0-150
Bahía50 pts
48.4
1.3
1.2
13.011.014.0+250
Fluminense47 pts
45.5
1.3
1.3
11.014.013.0-347
Sport Recife45 pts
46.5
1.3
1.2
12.09.017.0-1245
Vitória43 pts
50.5
1.5
1.3
11.010.017.0-843
Coritiba43 pts
43.2
1.2
1.3
11.010.017.0-943
Avaí43 pts
38.5
1.1
1.4
10.013.015.0-1943
Ponte Preta39 pts
38.9
1.1
1.3
10.09.019.0-1539
Atlético36 pts
40.6
1.1
1.3
9.09.020.0-1836
Forecast from

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