Updated June 16, 2018 at 10:01 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Brasileirão

2018 season

Brazil

Updated June 13, 2018, at 10:40 p.m.

Upcoming matches
7/18
Ceará
40%
28%
Sport Recife
32%
7/18
Vitória
56%
24%
Paraná
20%
7/18
Flamengo
55%
26%
São Paulo
19%
7/18
Corinthians
52%
27%
Botafogo
21%
7/18
Grêmio
52%
26%
Atlético Mineiro
23%
7/19
Chapecoense
49%
26%
Bahía
24%
7/19
Cruzeiro
64%
24%
América Mineiro
12%
7/19
Santos
40%
26%
Palmeiras
34%
7/19
Vasco da Gama
50%
25%
Fluminense
25%
7/19
Atlético-PR
35%
30%
Internacional
34%
7/21
Flamengo
63%
23%
Botafogo
14%
7/21
São Paulo
53%
28%
Corinthians
19%
7/22
Palmeiras
53%
23%
Atlético Mineiro
24%
7/22
Paraná
47%
28%
América Mineiro
25%
7/22
Sport Recife
49%
26%
Fluminense
25%
7/22
Vasco da Gama
37%
30%
Grêmio
33%
7/22
Bahía
50%
24%
Vitória
26%
7/22
Chapecoense
45%
27%
Santos
29%
7/22
Cruzeiro
58%
27%
Atlético-PR
15%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
6/13
Internacional3
57%26%
Vasco da Gama1
16%
INTVAS
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG1.20.5
6/13
Bahía1
42%29%
Corinthians0
29%
BAHCOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG1.91.1
6/13
Atlético Mineiro2
68%19%
Ceará1
13%
AMGCEA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.20.6
Non-shot xG2.00.5
6/13
Botafogo2
48%28%
Atlético-PR0
25%
BOTAPG
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG3.81.0
Non-shot xG1.61.8
6/13
Palmeiras1
47%26%
Flamengo1
27%
PALFLA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.1
Non-shot xG1.51.3
6/13
Sport Recife0
36%29%
Grêmio0
35%
SPOGRE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.2
Non-shot xG1.00.4
6/13
Paraná1
32%31%
Cruzeiro1
38%
PARCEC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG0.70.8
6/13
Fluminense0
46%25%
Santos1
28%
FLUSANT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.3
Non-shot xG1.21.0
6/13
América Mineiro0
41%27%
Chapecoense0
32%
AMGCHA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG1.10.9
6/12
São Paulo3
58%23%
Vitória0
19%
SPFCVIT
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG1.10.8
Non-shot xG1.30.5
6/10
Flamengo2
71%20%
Paraná0
9%
FLAPAR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.30.2
Non-shot xG1.50.5
6/10
Santos1
42%29%
Internacional2
29%
SANTINT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.21.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.win Brasileirãowin league
Flamengo27 pts
60.1
1.5
0.9
20.69.77.7+2771<1%38%
Internacional22 pts
56.1
1.3
0.9
17.811.39.0+1765<1%13%
Atlético Mineiro23 pts
55.4
1.7
1.3
18.38.111.6+1463<1%12%
Palmeiras19 pts
58.4
1.6
1.0
17.610.310.0+2063<1%11%
São Paulo23 pts
54.2
1.4
1.0
16.912.09.1+1363<1%9%
Grêmio20 pts
56.2
1.3
0.8
16.312.49.3+14611%7%
Cruzeiro18 pts
53.3
1.2
0.9
15.910.411.7+8582%4%
Corinthians16 pts
49.2
1.2
1.0
13.511.513.0+4529%<1%
Sport Recife19 pts
44.9
1.2
1.3
13.810.713.5-45210%1%
Santos13 pts
49.5
1.4
1.2
14.47.915.7-15113%1%
Botafogo17 pts
46.2
1.3
1.2
13.011.813.2-15113%<1%
Vasco da Gama15 pts
46.1
1.3
1.3
13.210.114.7-55016%<1%
Chapecoense14 pts
45.6
1.2
1.2
12.012.014.1-74820%<1%
Fluminense14 pts
44.8
1.3
1.3
12.88.716.5-74721%<1%
Bahía12 pts
45.1
1.2
1.3
11.79.716.6-114530%<1%
Vitória12 pts
44.1
1.4
1.4
11.89.316.9-124530%<1%
Atlético-PR9 pts
43.9
1.1
1.2
10.610.017.4-94241%<1%
América Mineiro14 pts
38.7
1.1
1.3
10.98.718.4-164143%<1%
Paraná10 pts
37.0
1.0
1.3
8.510.818.7-223666%<1%
Ceará5 pts
36.7
1.0
1.3
6.911.819.4-233280%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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