Updated Sept. 20, 2020, at 7:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20

Updated Sept. 3, 2020, at 4:37 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Final
8/23
PSG0
36%
Bayern Munich1
64%
PSGBMU
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.41.6
Non-shot xG1.01.3
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich
95.2
3.5
0.3
PSG
90.7
3.1
0.5
RB Leipzig
85.4
2.5
0.5
Lyon
75.1
2.0
0.7
Man. City
95.5
3.3
0.2
Barcelona
89.2
2.9
0.5
Atlético Madrid
85.2
2.1
0.3
Atalanta
82.2
2.5
0.7
Juventus
80.9
2.4
0.7
Liverpool
91.1
2.8
0.3
Napoli
78.4
2.1
0.6
Real Madrid
88.5
2.5
0.4
Valencia
66.2
1.8
0.9
Chelsea
85.4
2.6
0.5
Dortmund
83.3
2.4
0.6
Tottenham
76.4
2.1
0.7
Ajax
77.3
2.5
0.9
RB Salzburg
79.8
2.8
1.0
Benfica
75.0
2.2
0.8
Zenit
77.6
2.1
0.6
Inter Milan
83.1
2.5
0.6
Shakhtar
71.5
2.2
1.0
Leverkusen
79.8
2.3
0.7
Dinamo Zagreb
65.4
2.1
1.1
Olympiacos
75.2
2.0
0.7
Club Brugge
66.9
1.8
0.9
Red Star
56.5
1.9
1.4
Lokomotiv
59.1
1.5
1.0
Slavia Prague
63.2
1.9
1.1
Galatasaray
57.8
1.7
1.2
Lille
70.0
1.8
0.7
Genk
53.2
1.6
1.3
Forecast from
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