Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Champions League
Upcoming
4/11
Juventus
37%
26%
Barcelona
38%
4/11
Dortmund
56%
23%
Monaco
21%
4/12
Atletico Madrid
65%
23%
Leicester City
12%
4/12
Bayern Munich
60%
21%
Real Madrid
19%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/15
Monaco3
36%26%
Man. City1
38%
MONMNC
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.71.3
Non-shot xG0.81.0
3/15
Atletico Madrid0
60%24%
Leverkusen0
16%
ATLLEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.92.0
Non-shot xG1.31.8
3/14
Juventus1
71%21%
Porto0
8%
JUVPOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.40.5
Non-shot xG3.40.3
3/14
Leicester City2
35%27%
Sevilla0
38%
LEISEV
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.11.9
3/8
Dortmund4
70%18%
Benfica0
11%
DORBEN
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG1.80.5
3/8
Barcelona6
68%19%
PSG1
13%
BARPSG
Adjusted goals4.81.1
Shot-based xG3.11.5
Non-shot xG2.20.5
3/7
Napoli1
39%23%
Real Madrid3
38%
NAPMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.92.0
Non-shot xG0.82.0
3/7
Arsenal1
30%24%
Bayern Munich5
46%
ARSBMU
Adjusted goals1.14.4
Shot-based xG0.63.7
Non-shot xG1.31.7
See all
SPI ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamoffdefmake round of 16make quartersmake semismake finalwin final
Barcelona
3.4
0.7
67%51%31%
Bayern Munich
2.9
0.5
65%46%26%
Real Madrid
3.0
0.9
35%20%10%
Juventus
2.3
0.5
33%20%10%
Dortmund
2.5
0.9
60%24%9%
Atletico Madrid
1.9
0.7
73%23%8%
Monaco
2.4
0.9
40%13%4%
Leicester City
1.5
1.2
27%4%<1%
Arsenal
2.4
1.1
PSG
2.4
0.7
Napoli
2.4
0.9
Porto
1.8
0.9
Sevilla
1.9
1.0
Leverkusen
1.9
1.1
Man. City
2.4
0.7
Benfica
2.0
1.0
Copenhagen
1.3
1.0
Lyon
2.2
1.0
Tottenham
2.1
0.8
Besiktas
1.8
1.5
Rostov
1.4
1.4
Dynamo Kiev
1.9
0.8
Gladbach
1.6
1.0
Legia Warsaw
1.6
1.5
CSKA Moscow
1.5
1.2
Celtic
2.4
1.3
Ludogorets
1.6
1.0
Sporting
1.7
0.9
Basel
1.9
1.3
PSV
1.9
1.2
Club Brugge
1.0
1.5
Dinamo Zagreb
1.3
1.2
Forecast from

commentsAdd comment