Updated March 5, 2021, at 5:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2020-21

Updated March 4, 2021, at 5:08 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 16, Second leg
3/9
Juventus
64%
21%
Porto
15%
3/9
Dortmund
52%
24%
Sevilla
24%
3/10
Liverpool
52%
24%
RB Leipzig
24%
3/10
PSG
36%
23%
Barcelona
42%
3/16
Man. City
83%
13%
Gladbach
4%
3/16
Real Madrid
52%
24%
Atalanta
24%
3/17
Chelsea
51%
28%
Atlético Madrid
21%
3/17
Bayern Munich
75%
15%
Lazio
10%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 16, First leg
2/24
Gladbach0
11%18%
Man. City2
71%
MGBMNC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.41.6
Non-shot xG0.11.8
2/24
Atalanta0
37%25%
Real Madrid1
38%
ATAMAD
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG0.21.4
Non-shot xG0.72.0
2/23
Atlético Madrid0
39%29%
Chelsea1
32%
ATLCHE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG0.71.1
2/23
Lazio1
20%19%
Bayern Munich4
61%
LAZBMU
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG1.02.2
Non-shot xG1.11.8
2/17
Sevilla2
42%25%
Dortmund3
33%
SEVDOR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.11.3
Non-shot xG0.81.0
2/17
Porto2
27%26%
Juventus1
47%
PORJUV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG0.52.1
2/16
RB Leipzig0
39%25%
Liverpool2
36%
RBLLIV
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.21.8
Non-shot xG1.60.8
2/16
Barcelona1
65%19%
PSG4
17%
BARPSG
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG1.73.7
Non-shot xG1.61.8
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
93.7
2.9
0.2
>99%77%58%40%
Bayern Munich
89.0
3.1
0.6
>99%54%28%13%
Liverpool
88.2
2.6
0.4
93%47%22%10%
Chelsea
88.6
2.3
0.2
84%43%20%9%
Real Madrid
87.8
2.4
0.3
81%40%18%8%
PSG
85.2
2.6
0.6
95%42%17%7%
Dortmund
84.1
2.6
0.6
90%37%14%5%
Juventus
83.8
2.4
0.6
57%23%9%3%
Atalanta
83.3
2.5
0.6
19%8%3%1%
Atlético Madrid
84.5
2.2
0.4
16%7%3%1%
Barcelona
91.2
3.1
0.5
5%3%2%1%
RB Leipzig
84.5
2.4
0.5
7%3%1%<1%
Porto
74.6
2.1
0.8
43%11%2%<1%
Sevilla
81.4
2.1
0.5
10%4%1%<1%
Gladbach
75.0
2.2
0.8
<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lazio
73.6
2.1
0.8
<1%<1%<1%<1%
Man. United
86.9
2.4
0.4
Club Brugge
71.6
1.9
0.8
Shakhtar
72.3
2.2
1.0
Ajax
79.0
2.7
1.0
Inter Milan
85.7
2.6
0.5
Krasnodar
64.2
1.8
1.0
RB Salzburg
77.6
2.8
1.1
Dynamo Kiev
63.4
1.8
1.0
Lokomotiv
55.5
1.5
1.0
Olympiacos
71.0
1.9
0.8
Marseille
61.5
1.5
0.8
Başakşehir
39.0
1.2
1.6
Midtjylland
58.3
1.6
1.1
Rennes
63.5
1.5
0.8
Zenit
73.3
2.1
0.9
Ferencváros
54.0
1.6
1.3
Forecast from
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