Updated Nov. 17, 2019, at 1:57 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 5:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 5
11/26
Galatasaray
39%
27%
Club Brugge
33%
11/26
Lokomotiv
29%
26%
Leverkusen
45%
11/26
Tottenham
62%
22%
Olympiacos
16%
11/26
Man. City
81%
13%
Shakhtar
6%
11/26
Atalanta
51%
22%
Dinamo Zagreb
27%
11/26
Juventus
50%
26%
Atlético Madrid
24%
11/26
Real Madrid
48%
23%
PSG
29%
11/26
Red Star
13%
16%
Bayern Munich
70%
11/27
Valencia
30%
23%
Chelsea
47%
11/27
Zenit
54%
26%
Lyon
20%
11/27
Genk
19%
19%
RB Salzburg
63%
11/27
Liverpool
71%
18%
Napoli
11%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 4
11/6
Red Star0
27%22%
Tottenham4
51%
REDTOT
Adjusted goals0.03.8
Shot-based xG0.74.4
Non-shot xG0.32.2
11/6
PSG1
72%18%
Club Brugge0
9%
PSGCBKV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.32.1
Non-shot xG1.61.4
11/6
Leverkusen2
41%27%
Atlético Madrid1
32%
LEVATL
Adjusted goals2.10.8
Shot-based xG1.71.8
Non-shot xG1.11.9
11/6
Real Madrid6
81%14%
Galatasaray0
5%
MADGAL
Adjusted goals5.50.0
Shot-based xG3.50.7
Non-shot xG2.70.5
11/6
Atalanta1
17%17%
Man. City1
66%
ATAMNC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.72.0
Non-shot xG1.32.2
11/6
Dinamo Zagreb3
47%24%
Shakhtar3
29%
DINSHK
Adjusted goals2.73.2
Shot-based xG1.92.7
Non-shot xG1.21.1
11/6
Lokomotiv1
20%24%
Juventus2
56%
LOKJUV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.32.2
Non-shot xG1.52.4
11/6
Bayern Munich2
71%18%
Olympiacos0
11%
BMUOLY
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG3.30.1
Non-shot xG3.60.1
11/5
Lyon3
45%26%
Benfica1
29%
LYONBEN
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.11.3
11/5
Dortmund3
53%23%
Inter Milan2
24%
DORINT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.01.6
Non-shot xG3.51.3
11/5
Valencia4
56%24%
Lille1
20%
VALLLE
Adjusted goals3.31.1
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG1.51.0
11/5
Napoli1
43%22%
RB Salzburg1
35%
NAPSAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.11.6
Non-shot xG1.91.5
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City10 pts
C
95.2
3.3
0.2
>99%<1%<1%>99%81%60%42%26%
Bayern Munich12 pts
B
92.4
3.3
0.5
98%2%—✓74%46%27%15%
Liverpool9 pts
E
93.0
3.0
0.3
80%14%6%94%70%44%26%14%
PSG12 pts
A
89.5
2.9
0.5
98%2%—✓68%37%19%9%
Barcelona8 pts
F
88.8
2.8
0.5
71%21%9%91%58%30%15%7%
Real Madrid7 pts
A
89.0
2.8
0.5
2%93%5%95%46%25%12%6%
Juventus10 pts
D
86.7
2.6
0.5
77%23%—✓56%26%11%4%
Chelsea7 pts
H
87.2
2.6
0.5
51%24%25%75%43%21%9%4%
Atlético Madrid7 pts
D
86.2
2.2
0.3
23%73%4%96%42%19%8%3%
RB Leipzig9 pts
G
84.1
2.5
0.6
79%18%3%97%48%19%7%3%
Ajax7 pts
H
83.5
3.0
0.9
37%48%16%84%38%17%6%2%
Tottenham7 pts
B
82.4
2.4
0.6
2%90%8%92%38%15%5%2%
Dortmund7 pts
F
82.2
2.4
0.6
28%55%17%83%33%13%5%2%
Napoli8 pts
E
79.8
2.3
0.7
20%76%4%96%32%11%3%1%
RB Salzburg4 pts
E
83.8
3.1
0.9
<1%10%87%10%4%2%<1%<1%
Inter Milan4 pts
F
79.3
2.4
0.7
1%23%57%24%7%3%<1%<1%
Zenit4 pts
G
77.4
2.1
0.6
<1%33%38%34%9%3%<1%<1%
Lyon7 pts
G
72.4
2.0
0.8
20%43%33%63%15%4%<1%<1%
Valencia7 pts
H
72.7
2.1
0.9
12%29%59%41%11%3%<1%<1%
Shakhtar5 pts
C
70.2
2.2
1.0
<1%59%34%59%12%3%<1%<1%
Atalanta1 pt
C
73.2
2.2
0.9
—13%6%13%3%<1%<1%<1%
Benfica3 pts
G
75.9
2.2
0.8
—6%27%6%2%<1%<1%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb5 pts
C
67.1
2.1
1.1
<1%28%60%28%5%<1%<1%<1%
Leverkusen3 pts
D
80.0
2.3
0.7
—2%57%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Olympiacos1 pt
B
72.4
2.0
0.8
—8%52%8%2%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star3 pts
B
58.9
2.0
1.4
—<1%39%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Club Brugge2 pts
A
71.7
2.1
0.9
—5%63%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague2 pts
F
62.2
1.9
1.1
—2%18%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv3 pts
D
63.3
1.7
1.0
—2%39%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Galatasaray1 pt
A
63.1
1.8
1.0
——32%—————
Lille1 pt
H
69.2
1.8
0.8
——<1%—————
Genk1 pt
E
55.8
1.7
1.2
——3%—————
Forecast from
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