Updated Nov. 26, 2020, at 12:03 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2020-21

Updated Nov. 25, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 5
12/1
Shakhtar
26%
22%
Real Madrid
52%
12/1
Lokomotiv
25%
22%
RB Salzburg
52%
12/1
Liverpool
56%
20%
Ajax
23%
12/1
Atalanta
73%
17%
Midtjylland
10%
12/1
Atlético Madrid
36%
23%
Bayern Munich
41%
12/1
Gladbach
41%
23%
Inter Milan
36%
12/1
Porto
18%
22%
Man. City
60%
12/1
Marseille
38%
29%
Olympiacos
33%
12/2
Başakşehir
10%
19%
RB Leipzig
71%
12/2
Krasnodar
37%
28%
Rennes
36%
12/2
Club Brugge
40%
27%
Zenit
34%
12/2
Man. United
38%
24%
PSG
38%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 4
11/25
Marseille0
32%27%
Porto2
41%
MRSPOR
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG1.10.6
11/25
Bayern Munich3
68%16%
RB Salzburg1
16%
BMUSAL
Adjusted goals3.20.8
Shot-based xG1.63.1
Non-shot xG1.41.7
11/25
Atlético Madrid0
82%15%
Lokomotiv0
3%
ATLLOK
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.90.1
Non-shot xG1.80.5
11/25
Inter Milan0
42%23%
Real Madrid2
34%
INTMAD
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.22.3
Non-shot xG0.91.9
11/25
Ajax3
72%17%
Midtjylland1
11%
AJXFCM
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.31.3
Non-shot xG1.50.7
11/25
Liverpool0
60%20%
Atalanta2
20%
LIVATA
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.21.5
Non-shot xG0.81.1
11/25
Olympiacos0
21%26%
Man. City1
53%
OLYMNC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.12.6
Non-shot xG0.13.9
11/25
Gladbach4
52%22%
Shakhtar0
27%
MGBSHK
Adjusted goals4.00.0
Shot-based xG2.90.7
Non-shot xG1.30.9
11/24
PSG1
51%23%
RB Leipzig0
26%
PSGRBL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.02.7
11/24
Dynamo Kiev0
18%20%
Barcelona4
63%
KIEVBAR
Adjusted goals0.03.7
Shot-based xG0.43.0
Non-shot xG0.62.4
11/24
Dortmund3
68%20%
Club Brugge0
12%
DORCBKV
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.60.1
Non-shot xG2.00.7
11/24
Juventus2
79%15%
Ferencváros1
6%
JUVFERE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG2.50.5
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich12 pts
A
93.0
3.4
0.5
✓——✓78%53%34%20%
Man. City12 pts
C
93.5
2.9
0.2
97%3%—✓76%52%33%20%
Barcelona12 pts
G
91.0
3.0
0.4
94%6%—✓71%43%24%13%
Liverpool9 pts
D
88.6
2.8
0.5
76%20%5%95%60%31%16%8%
Dortmund9 pts
F
88.2
2.6
0.4
82%17%<1%>99%59%31%15%7%
Real Madrid7 pts
B
87.6
2.6
0.4
58%32%9%90%52%26%13%6%
Chelsea10 pts
E
86.4
2.5
0.4
62%38%—✓54%25%11%5%
PSG6 pts
H
87.3
2.8
0.6
29%33%37%62%34%18%9%4%
Atlético Madrid5 pts
A
86.4
2.3
0.4
—80%20%80%37%18%8%4%
Man. United9 pts
H
84.0
2.4
0.5
60%23%17%83%44%18%7%3%
RB Leipzig6 pts
H
85.4
2.4
0.5
11%44%44%55%26%12%6%3%
Juventus9 pts
G
81.9
2.4
0.6
6%94%—✓36%14%5%2%
Gladbach8 pts
B
79.6
2.4
0.7
40%45%15%85%34%12%4%1%
Sevilla10 pts
E
79.9
2.1
0.5
38%62%—✓37%13%4%1%
Ajax7 pts
D
80.1
2.7
0.9
14%42%44%56%22%9%3%1%
Atalanta7 pts
D
80.0
2.4
0.7
10%39%51%49%17%6%2%<1%
Porto9 pts
C
75.3
2.2
0.8
3%96%1%99%26%8%2%<1%
Inter Milan2 pts
B
83.0
2.5
0.7
<1%14%41%14%6%3%1%<1%
Lazio8 pts
F
72.0
2.1
0.9
18%68%14%86%20%5%1%<1%
RB Salzburg1 pt
A
78.9
2.8
1.1
—16%43%16%6%2%<1%<1%
Shakhtar4 pts
B
71.4
2.3
1.0
2%9%36%11%3%<1%<1%<1%
Club Brugge4 pts
F
68.1
2.0
0.9
—14%65%14%3%<1%<1%<1%
Olympiacos3 pts
C
72.9
2.0
0.7
—1%91%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv3 pts
A
57.3
1.5
1.0
—5%37%5%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Başakşehir3 pts
H
58.1
1.7
1.2
—<1%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Dynamo Kiev1 pt
G
65.1
1.9
1.1
——74%—————
Rennes1 pt
E
66.7
1.7
0.8
——55%—————
Zenit1 pt
F
73.9
2.1
0.8
——21%—————
Krasnodar1 pt
E
59.6
1.7
1.1
——45%—————
Ferencváros1 pt
G
54.4
1.6
1.3
——26%—————
Marseille0 pts
C
63.5
1.6
0.8
——7%—————
Midtjylland0 pts
D
59.2
1.8
1.2
————————
Forecast from
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