| Team rating | chance of finishing group | round-by-round probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | group | spi | off. | def. | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | make round of 16 | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |
 Man. City9 pts | G | 93.1 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 91% | 9% | <1% | >99% | 81% | 58% | 39% | 24% | |
 Bayern Munich9 pts | C | 92.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 94% | 5% | <1% | >99% | 77% | 54% | 36% | 21% | |
 PSG7 pts | H | 89.6 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 76% | 22% | 1% | 99% | 67% | 41% | 23% | 12% | |
 Real Madrid9 pts | F | 87.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 96% | 3% | <1% | >99% | 64% | 34% | 17% | 8% | |
 Liverpool6 pts | A | 88.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 24% | 59% | 16% | 84% | 52% | 30% | 16% | 8% | |
 Barcelona3 pts | C | 88.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 2% | 44% | 53% | 46% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | |
 Napoli9 pts | A | 81.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 73% | 25% | 2% | 98% | 50% | 22% | 9% | 3% | |
 Chelsea4 pts | E | 82.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 34% | 31% | 26% | 65% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | |
 Dortmund6 pts | G | 80.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 9% | 89% | 2% | 98% | 44% | 18% | 6% | 2% | |
 Tottenham4 pts | D | 81.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 35% | 34% | 21% | 69% | 34% | 14% | 6% | 2% | |
 Benfica7 pts | H | 78.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 23% | 70% | 7% | 93% | 36% | 14% | 5% | 2% | |
 RB Salzburg5 pts | E | 79.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 34% | 30% | 25% | 65% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 2% | |
 Inter Milan6 pts | C | 78.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 4% | 51% | 45% | 55% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | |
 AC Milan4 pts | E | 78.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 28% | 29% | 30% | 57% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | |
 Atlético Madrid3 pts | B | 79.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 10% | 33% | 32% | 42% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
 RB Leipzig3 pts | F | 78.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2% | 47% | 33% | 49% | 20% | 8% | 3% | <1% | |
 Ajax3 pts | A | 83.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2% | 16% | 74% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% | |
 Porto3 pts | B | 79.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 7% | 26% | 34% | 33% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | |
 Sporting6 pts | D | 74.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 45% | 29% | 17% | 75% | 26% | 8% | 2% | <1% | |
 Club Brugge9 pts | B | 70.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 76% | 20% | 4% | 96% | 29% | 7% | 2% | <1% | |
 Marseille3 pts | D | 74.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10% | 17% | 25% | 26% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
 Leverkusen3 pts | B | 73.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 7% | 22% | 30% | 29% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
 Eintracht4 pts | D | 69.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 10% | 20% | 37% | 30% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
 Celtic1 pt | F | 71.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | <1% | 17% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
 Juventus3 pts | H | 67.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | <1% | 7% | 86% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Dinamo Zagreb3 pts | E | 63.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 4% | 9% | 19% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Shakhtar4 pts | F | 60.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 2% | 33% | 35% | 34% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Sevilla1 pt | G | 66.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | <1% | 2% | 70% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Rangers0 pts | A | 68.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | <1% | <1% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Copenhagen1 pt | G | 52.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | <1% | <1% | 28% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Viktoria Plzen0 pts | C | 53.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Maccabi Haifa0 pts | H | 47.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | <1% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
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