Updated May 6, 2021, at 4:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

UEFA Champions League

2020-21

Updated May 6, 2021, at 4:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Final
5/29
Man. City
64%
Chelsea
36%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Semifinals, Second leg
5/5
Chelsea2
45%28%
Real Madrid0
27%
CHEMAD
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG3.60.5
Non-shot xG1.70.6
5/4
Man. City2
69%19%
PSG0
12%
MNCPSG
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG1.31.4
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
93.3
2.8
0.2
64%
Chelsea
89.4
2.3
0.2
36%
PSG
82.9
2.5
0.7
Real Madrid
86.3
2.5
0.4
Bayern Munich
90.4
3.2
0.6
Dortmund
84.3
2.7
0.7
Liverpool
88.1
2.6
0.4
Porto
75.2
2.0
0.7
Barcelona
91.6
3.3
0.5
Juventus
82.3
2.4
0.6
Sevilla
83.0
2.2
0.4
RB Leipzig
87.6
2.4
0.4
Atalanta
85.4
2.6
0.6
Lazio
73.0
2.3
1.0
Atlético Madrid
83.8
2.2
0.4
Gladbach
76.7
2.3
0.8
Man. United
87.7
2.5
0.4
Club Brugge
69.5
2.0
0.9
Shakhtar
70.9
2.2
1.0
Ajax
82.2
2.7
0.8
Inter Milan
84.8
2.3
0.4
Krasnodar
55.4
1.7
1.3
RB Salzburg
76.6
2.6
1.1
Dynamo Kiev
61.7
1.8
1.1
Lokomotiv
61.9
1.7
1.0
Olympiacos
70.5
1.9
0.8
Marseille
63.9
1.7
0.9
Başakşehir
41.2
1.2
1.4
Midtjylland
63.6
1.8
1.0
Rennes
69.0
1.7
0.7
Zenit
78.0
2.4
0.8
Ferencváros
54.0
1.6
1.3
Forecast from
Season

Comments