Updated Nov. 3, 2020, at 5:00 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2020-21

Updated Nov. 3, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 3
11/4
Başakşehir
15%
22%
Man. United
63%
11/4
Zenit
51%
24%
Lazio
25%
11/4
Club Brugge
23%
25%
Dortmund
52%
11/4
Chelsea
69%
21%
Rennes
11%
11/4
Barcelona
74%
16%
Dynamo Kiev
9%
11/4
Ferencváros
16%
22%
Juventus
62%
11/4
RB Leipzig
36%
24%
PSG
40%
11/4
Sevilla
73%
20%
Krasnodar
7%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 3
11/3
Porto3
59%24%
Marseille0
18%
PORMRS
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.11.0
Non-shot xG0.90.4
11/3
Real Madrid3
51%23%
Inter Milan2
26%
MADINT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG1.70.9
11/3
Atalanta0
38%22%
Liverpool5
40%
ATALIV
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG1.22.6
Non-shot xG1.32.0
11/3
RB Salzburg2
29%20%
Bayern Munich6
52%
SALBMU
Adjusted goals2.15.0
Shot-based xG1.83.0
Non-shot xG1.42.3
11/3
Man. City3
68%21%
Olympiacos0
10%
MNCOLY
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG2.00.4
Non-shot xG2.50.2
11/3
Midtjylland1
20%20%
Ajax2
60%
FCMAJX
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.70.4
Non-shot xG1.11.2
11/3
Lokomotiv1
11%24%
Atlético Madrid1
65%
LOKATL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG0.41.9
11/3
Shakhtar0
45%23%
Gladbach6
32%
SHKMGB
Adjusted goals0.06.1
Shot-based xG0.42.2
Non-shot xG0.51.9
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich9 pts
A
94.3
3.5
0.4
98%2%<1%>99%81%59%41%26%
Man. City9 pts
C
93.0
2.9
0.3
95%4%<1%>99%74%49%30%17%
Barcelona6 pts
G
89.9
2.9
0.5
88%11%1%99%66%38%20%10%
Liverpool9 pts
D
88.6
2.8
0.5
92%7%<1%>99%64%33%16%8%
PSG3 pts
H
89.6
3.0
0.5
25%41%33%67%41%25%14%7%
Real Madrid4 pts
B
88.6
2.6
0.4
41%28%19%69%42%23%11%5%
Dortmund3 pts
F
87.0
2.4
0.4
59%25%12%84%47%24%11%5%
Atlético Madrid4 pts
A
86.2
2.3
0.4
2%79%18%81%39%19%8%4%
Chelsea4 pts
E
85.2
2.4
0.5
55%38%6%93%47%21%9%4%
Man. United6 pts
H
83.8
2.4
0.5
65%29%6%94%48%20%8%3%
Sevilla4 pts
E
81.5
2.0
0.4
43%50%6%92%39%15%5%2%
RB Leipzig3 pts
H
84.6
2.4
0.5
10%29%58%39%19%9%4%2%
Inter Milan2 pts
B
85.1
2.6
0.6
15%25%29%40%20%9%4%2%
Juventus3 pts
G
81.1
2.4
0.7
12%78%8%90%33%13%5%2%
Gladbach5 pts
B
79.2
2.3
0.7
34%32%22%66%27%10%3%1%
Ajax4 pts
D
78.9
2.7
1.0
5%54%39%60%21%8%3%1%
RB Salzburg1 pt
A
81.1
2.9
1.0
<1%17%48%17%7%3%1%<1%
Porto6 pts
C
75.1
2.2
0.8
4%75%21%79%22%6%2%<1%
Atalanta4 pts
D
78.4
2.5
0.8
2%38%57%41%13%5%2%<1%
Zenit0 pts
F
76.0
2.1
0.7
5%15%24%20%6%2%<1%<1%
Shakhtar4 pts
B
72.5
2.3
1.0
11%15%30%26%8%2%<1%<1%
Olympiacos3 pts
C
74.2
2.0
0.7
<1%20%67%20%6%2%<1%<1%
Lazio4 pts
F
69.4
2.0
1.0
21%33%27%54%13%3%<1%<1%
Club Brugge4 pts
F
68.6
2.0
1.0
16%26%37%42%10%2%<1%<1%
Rennes1 pt
E
66.4
1.7
0.8
2%8%49%9%2%<1%<1%<1%
Dynamo Kiev1 pt
G
66.4
1.9
1.0
<1%7%65%8%2%<1%<1%<1%
Krasnodar1 pt
E
58.9
1.6
1.1
<1%5%38%5%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Marseille0 pts
C
63.8
1.6
0.9
<1%<1%12%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv2 pts
A
59.6
1.5
0.9
<1%3%34%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ferencváros1 pt
G
54.4
1.6
1.3
<1%4%26%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Başakşehir0 pts
H
58.2
1.7
1.1
<1%<1%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Midtjylland0 pts
D
55.8
1.7
1.2
<1%<1%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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