Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Updated May 6, 2021, at 4:59 PM
5/29 |  Man. City | 64% |
 Chelsea | 36% |
| 5/5 | Chelsea2 | 45% | 28% |
 Real Madrid0 | 27% |
| CHE | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5/4 | Man. City2 | 69% | 19% |
 PSG0 | 12% |
| MNC | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 4/28 | PSG1 | 23% | 24% |
Man. City2 | 53% |
| PSG | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 4/27 | Real Madrid1 | 44% | 28% |
Chelsea1 | 28% |
| MAD | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 4/14 |  Dortmund1 | 23% | 22% |
Man. City2 | 54% |
| DOR | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 4/14 |  Liverpool0 | 46% | 25% |
Real Madrid0 | 29% |
| LIV | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 4/13 | PSG0 | 34% | 21% |
 Bayern Munich1 | 44% |
| PSG | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| 4/13 | Chelsea0 | 66% | 22% |
 Porto1 | 12% |
| CHE | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 4/7 | Porto0 | 21% | 26% |
Chelsea2 | 53% |
| POR | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 4/7 | Bayern Munich2 | 58% | 20% |
PSG3 | 22% |
| BMU | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| 4/6 | Real Madrid3 | 43% | 26% |
Liverpool1 | 31% |
| MAD | LIV | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 4/6 | Man. City2 | 71% | 18% |
Dortmund1 | 11% |
| MNC | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 3/17 | Bayern Munich2 | 78% | 13% |
 Lazio1 | 9% |
| BMU | LAZ | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 3/17 | Chelsea2 | 52% | 29% |
 Atlético Madrid0 | 20% |
| CHE | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3/16 | Real Madrid3 | 52% | 24% |
 Atalanta1 | 24% |
| MAD | ATA | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 3/16 | Man. City2 | 82% | 13% |
 Gladbach0 | 5% |
| MNC | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3/10 | PSG1 | 36% | 23% |
 Barcelona1 | 42% |
| PSG | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| 3/10 | Liverpool2 | 48% | 25% |
 RB Leipzig0 | 27% |
| LIV | RBL | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 3/9 | Dortmund2 | 53% | 24% |
 Sevilla2 | 23% |
| DOR | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 3/9 |  Juventus3 | 64% | 22% |
Porto2 | 14% |
| JUV | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 4.0 | 0.8 |
| 2/24 | Gladbach0 | 11% | 18% |
Man. City2 | 71% |
| MGB | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| 2/24 | Atalanta0 | 37% | 25% |
Real Madrid1 | 38% |
| ATA | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| 2/23 | Atlético Madrid0 | 39% | 29% |
Chelsea1 | 32% |
| ATL | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 2/23 | Lazio1 | 20% | 19% |
Bayern Munich4 | 61% |
| LAZ | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 2/17 | Sevilla2 | 42% | 25% |
Dortmund3 | 33% |
| SEV | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 2/17 | Porto2 | 27% | 26% |
Juventus1 | 47% |
| POR | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| 2/16 | RB Leipzig0 | 39% | 25% |
Liverpool2 | 36% |
| RBL | LIV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2/16 | Barcelona1 | 65% | 19% |
PSG4 | 17% |
| BAR | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 12/9 |  Olympiacos0 | 44% | 28% |
Porto2 | 28% |
| OLY | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 12/9 | Bayern Munich2 | 86% | 11% |
 Lokomotiv0 | 3% |
| BMU | LOK | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 12/9 | Real Madrid2 | 57% | 21% |
Gladbach0 | 22% |
| MAD | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 12/9 |  Inter Milan0 | 60% | 20% |
 Shakhtar0 | 19% |
| INT | SHK | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 12/9 |  RB Salzburg0 | 34% | 23% |
Atlético Madrid2 | 43% |
| SAL | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 12/9 | Man. City3 | 82% | 14% |
 Marseille0 | 4% |
| MNC | MRS | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 12/9 |  Ajax0 | 49% | 22% |
Atalanta1 | 29% |
| AJX | ATA | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 12/9 |  Midtjylland1 | 13% | 20% |
Liverpool1 | 67% |
| FCM | LIV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 12/8 | RB Leipzig3 | 47% | 24% |
 Man. United2 | 29% |
| RBL | MAN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 12/8 |  Rennes1 | 30% | 29% |
Sevilla3 | 41% |
| REN | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 12/8 | PSG5 | 84% | 11% |
 Başakşehir1 | 5% |
| PSG | IBB | |
| Adjusted goals | 5.3 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 12/8 |  Dynamo Kiev1 | 56% | 24% |
 Ferencváros0 | 20% |
| KIEV | FERE | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 12/8 | Barcelona0 | 63% | 19% |
Juventus3 | 18% |
| BAR | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 12/8 | Chelsea1 | 78% | 16% |
 Krasnodar1 | 6% |
| CHE | KRA | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 12/8 |  Zenit1 | 25% | 25% |
Dortmund2 | 51% |
| ZEN | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 12/8 | Lazio2 | 48% | 25% |
 Club Brugge2 | 28% |
| LAZ | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 12/2 | Sevilla0 | 36% | 27% |
Chelsea4 | 37% |
| SEV | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 12/2 | Ferencváros0 | 9% | 16% |
Barcelona3 | 75% |
| FERE | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 3.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| 12/2 | Dortmund1 | 68% | 19% |
Lazio1 | 13% |
| DOR | LAZ | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 12/2 | Juventus3 | 65% | 20% |
Dynamo Kiev0 | 14% |
| JUV | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 12/2 | Man. United1 | 41% | 23% |
PSG3 | 35% |
| MAN | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 12/2 | Club Brugge3 | 39% | 28% |
Zenit0 | 33% |
| CBKV | ZEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 12/2 | Krasnodar1 | 35% | 28% |
Rennes0 | 37% |
| KRA | REN | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 12/2 | Başakşehir3 | 11% | 18% |
RB Leipzig4 | 71% |
| IBB | RBL | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| 12/1 | Marseille2 | 39% | 29% |
Olympiacos1 | 32% |
| MRS | OLY | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 12/1 | Porto0 | 18% | 23% |
Man. City0 | 60% |
| POR | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 2.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| 12/1 | Gladbach2 | 40% | 23% |
Inter Milan3 | 37% |
| MGB | INT | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| 12/1 | Atlético Madrid1 | 38% | 24% |
Bayern Munich1 | 38% |
| ATL | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 12/1 | Atalanta1 | 73% | 18% |
Midtjylland1 | 10% |
| ATA | FCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 12/1 | Liverpool1 | 53% | 21% |
Ajax0 | 26% |
| LIV | AJX | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 12/1 | Lokomotiv1 | 25% | 22% |
RB Salzburg3 | 53% |
| LOK | SAL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 12/1 | Shakhtar2 | 28% | 23% |
Real Madrid0 | 49% |
| SHK | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 11/25 | Marseille0 | 32% | 27% |
Porto2 | 41% |
| MRS | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 11/25 | Bayern Munich3 | 68% | 16% |
RB Salzburg1 | 16% |
| BMU | SAL | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 11/25 | Atlético Madrid0 | 82% | 15% |
Lokomotiv0 | 3% |
| ATL | LOK | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 11/25 | Inter Milan0 | 42% | 23% |
Real Madrid2 | 34% |
| INT | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.2 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 11/25 | Ajax3 | 72% | 17% |
Midtjylland1 | 11% |
| AJX | FCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 11/25 | Liverpool0 | 60% | 20% |
Atalanta2 | 20% |
| LIV | ATA | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 11/25 | Olympiacos0 | 21% | 26% |
Man. City1 | 53% |
| OLY | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.1 | 3.9 |
| 11/25 | Gladbach4 | 52% | 22% |
Shakhtar0 | 27% |
| MGB | SHK | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 11/24 | PSG1 | 51% | 23% |
RB Leipzig0 | 26% |
| PSG | RBL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| 11/24 | Dynamo Kiev0 | 18% | 20% |
Barcelona4 | 63% |
| KIEV | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| 11/24 | Dortmund3 | 68% | 20% |
Club Brugge0 | 12% |
| DOR | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 11/24 | Juventus2 | 79% | 15% |
Ferencváros1 | 6% |
| JUV | FERE | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 11/24 | Lazio3 | 43% | 25% |
Zenit1 | 32% |
| LAZ | ZEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 11/24 | Man. United4 | 80% | 15% |
Başakşehir1 | 5% |
| MAN | IBB | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 11/24 | Krasnodar1 | 21% | 26% |
Sevilla2 | 53% |
| KRA | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 11/24 | Rennes1 | 20% | 25% |
Chelsea2 | 54% |
| REN | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 11/4 | Sevilla3 | 73% | 20% |
Krasnodar2 | 7% |
| SEV | KRA | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 11/4 | RB Leipzig2 | 37% | 24% |
PSG1 | 39% |
| RBL | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 11/4 | Ferencváros1 | 16% | 22% |
Juventus4 | 62% |
| FERE | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| 11/4 | Barcelona2 | 74% | 17% |
Dynamo Kiev1 | 9% |
| BAR | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 4.3 | 0.9 |
| 11/4 | Chelsea3 | 69% | 21% |
Rennes0 | 11% |
| CHE | REN | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 11/4 | Club Brugge0 | 24% | 25% |
Dortmund3 | 51% |
| CBKV | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 11/4 | Zenit1 | 51% | 24% |
Lazio1 | 25% |
| ZEN | LAZ | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 11/4 | Başakşehir2 | 15% | 22% |
Man. United1 | 63% |
| IBB | MAN | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| 11/3 | Porto3 | 59% | 24% |
Marseille0 | 18% |
| POR | MRS | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 11/3 | Real Madrid3 | 51% | 23% |
Inter Milan2 | 26% |
| MAD | INT | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 11/3 | Atalanta0 | 38% | 22% |
Liverpool5 | 40% |
| ATA | LIV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 5.3 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 11/3 | RB Salzburg2 | 29% | 20% |
Bayern Munich6 | 52% |
| SAL | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 5.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 11/3 | Man. City3 | 68% | 21% |
Olympiacos0 | 10% |
| MNC | OLY | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| 11/3 | Midtjylland1 | 20% | 20% |
Ajax2 | 60% |
| FCM | AJX | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 11/3 | Lokomotiv1 | 11% | 24% |
Atlético Madrid1 | 65% |
| LOK | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| 11/3 | Shakhtar0 | 45% | 23% |
Gladbach6 | 32% |
| SHK | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 6.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| 10/28 | Sevilla1 | 63% | 25% |
Rennes0 | 12% |
| SEV | REN | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 10/28 | Ferencváros2 | 32% | 27% |
Dynamo Kiev2 | 41% |
| FERE | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10/28 | Dortmund2 | 60% | 23% |
Zenit0 | 17% |
| DOR | ZEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10/28 | Juventus0 | 35% | 24% |
Barcelona2 | 42% |
| JUV | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| 10/28 | Man. United5 | 41% | 25% |
RB Leipzig0 | 34% |
| MAN | RBL | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10/28 | Club Brugge1 | 45% | 25% |
Lazio1 | 30% |
| CBKV | LAZ | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10/28 | Krasnodar0 | 20% | 24% |
Chelsea4 | 56% |
| KRA | CHE | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10/28 | Başakşehir0 | 9% | 17% |
PSG2 | 74% |
| IBB | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 10/27 | Marseille0 | 14% | 21% |
Man. City3 | 65% |
| MRS | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| 10/27 | Porto2 | 45% | 29% |
Olympiacos0 | 26% |
| POR | OLY | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 10/27 | Gladbach2 | 30% | 24% |
Real Madrid2 | 47% |
| MGB | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| 10/27 | Atlético Madrid3 | 53% | 22% |
RB Salzburg2 | 24% |
| ATL | SAL | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 10/27 | Atalanta2 | 43% | 22% |
Ajax2 | 35% |
| ATA | AJX | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10/27 | Liverpool2 | 82% | 13% |
Midtjylland0 | 5% |
| LIV | FCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 10/27 | Lokomotiv1 | 7% | 15% |
Bayern Munich2 | 78% |
| LOK | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 10/27 | Shakhtar0 | 35% | 23% |
Inter Milan0 | 42% |
| SHK | INT | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| 10/21 | Olympiacos1 | 55% | 25% |
Marseille0 | 19% |
| OLY | MRS | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10/21 | Bayern Munich4 | 62% | 20% |
Atlético Madrid0 | 18% |
| BMU | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10/21 | Inter Milan2 | 56% | 21% |
Gladbach2 | 23% |
| INT | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 10/21 | Ajax0 | 30% | 22% |
Liverpool1 | 49% |
| AJX | LIV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 10/21 | Man. City3 | 68% | 19% |
Porto1 | 13% |
| MNC | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10/21 | Midtjylland0 | 22% | 22% |
Atalanta4 | 56% |
| FCM | ATA | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10/21 | Real Madrid2 | 64% | 20% |
Shakhtar3 | 16% |
| MAD | SHK | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10/21 | RB Salzburg2 | 69% | 19% |
Lokomotiv2 | 12% |
| SAL | LOK | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10/20 | RB Leipzig2 | 85% | 12% |
Başakşehir0 | 2% |
| RBL | IBB | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10/20 | Rennes1 | 50% | 27% |
Krasnodar1 | 22% |
| REN | KRA | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10/20 | PSG1 | 61% | 20% |
Man. United2 | 19% |
| PSG | MAN | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10/20 | Barcelona5 | 86% | 11% |
Ferencváros1 | 2% |
| BAR | FERE | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.4 | 0.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 10/20 | Lazio3 | 28% | 25% |
Dortmund1 | 48% |
| LAZ | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 10/20 | Chelsea0 | 50% | 25% |
Sevilla0 | 25% |
| CHE | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10/20 | Zenit1 | 56% | 25% |
Club Brugge2 | 18% |
| ZEN | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10/20 | Dynamo Kiev0 | 28% | 24% |
Juventus2 | 47% |
| KIEV | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Team rating | round-by-round probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | spi | off. | def. | make round of 16 | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | ||
Man. City | 93.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 64% | ||
Chelsea | 89.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 36% | ||
PSG | 82.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
Real Madrid | 86.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
Bayern Munich | 90.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
Dortmund | 84.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
Liverpool | 88.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
Porto | 75.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
Barcelona | 91.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Juventus | 82.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Sevilla | 83.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
RB Leipzig | 87.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Atalanta | 85.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Lazio | 73.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Atlético Madrid | 83.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Gladbach | 76.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | ||
Man. United | 87.7 | 2.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Club Brugge | 69.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Shakhtar | 70.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Ajax | 82.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Inter Milan | 84.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Krasnodar | 55.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
RB Salzburg | 76.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Dynamo Kiev | 61.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Lokomotiv | 61.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Olympiacos | 70.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Marseille | 63.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Başakşehir | 41.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Midtjylland | 63.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Rennes | 69.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Zenit | 78.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Ferencváros | 54.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | — | ||
The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase. The third-place team from each group qualifies for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase. The third-place finisher from each group in the UEFA Champions League — eight teams total — will join the UEFA Europa League in the round of 32.The top seven teams from each conference — 14 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top team from each conference receives a first-round bye.The top four teams from each division make the USL playoffs.The top twelve teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs, with four teams receiving a first-round bye.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.The top six teams make the A-League playoffs, with two teams receiving a first-round bye.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.Two teams are relegated through a playoff.The top two teams from each group and four third-place teams make the round of 16.
Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Comments