Get more FiveThirtyEight
Updated 12:31 AM EDT | Jun 26, 2017
| 6/3 |  Juventus1 | 44% |
 Real Madrid4 | 56% |
| JUV | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 5/10 |  Atletico Madrid2 | 33% | 25% |
Real Madrid1 | 42% |
| ATL | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| 5/9 | Juventus2 | 61% | 24% |
 Monaco1 | 15% |
| JUV | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 5/3 | Monaco0 | 34% | 28% |
Juventus2 | 37% |
| MON | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 5/2 | Real Madrid3 | 57% | 22% |
Atletico Madrid0 | 21% |
| MAD | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 4/19 | Monaco3 | 41% | 25% |
 Dortmund1 | 34% |
| MON | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 4/19 |  Barcelona0 | 55% | 24% |
Juventus0 | 21% |
| BAR | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 4.7 | 0.8 |
| 4/18 | Real Madrid4 | 37% | 24% |
 Bayern Munich2 | 39% |
| MAD | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 4/18 |  Leicester City1 | 29% | 28% |
Atletico Madrid1 | 43% |
| LEI | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4/12 | Bayern Munich1 | 64% | 20% |
Real Madrid2 | 17% |
| BMU | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| 4/12 | Atletico Madrid1 | 66% | 23% |
Leicester City0 | 12% |
| ATL | LEI | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 4/12 | Dortmund2 | 55% | 23% |
Monaco3 | 21% |
| DOR | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 4/11 | Juventus3 | 38% | 26% |
Barcelona0 | 36% |
| JUV | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| 3/15 | Monaco3 | 36% | 26% |
 Man. City1 | 38% |
| MON | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 3/15 | Atletico Madrid0 | 60% | 24% |
 Leverkusen0 | 16% |
| ATL | LEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 3/14 | Juventus1 | 71% | 21% |
 Porto0 | 8% |
| JUV | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 3/14 | Leicester City2 | 35% | 27% |
 Sevilla0 | 38% |
| LEI | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 3/8 | Dortmund4 | 70% | 18% |
 Benfica0 | 11% |
| DOR | BEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 3/8 | Barcelona6 | 68% | 19% |
 PSG1 | 13% |
| BAR | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.8 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 3/7 |  Napoli1 | 39% | 23% |
Real Madrid3 | 38% |
| NAP | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 3/7 |  Arsenal1 | 30% | 24% |
Bayern Munich5 | 46% |
| ARS | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 2/22 | Sevilla2 | 65% | 22% |
Leicester City1 | 13% |
| SEV | LEI | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2/22 | Porto0 | 26% | 29% |
Juventus2 | 45% |
| POR | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.3 | 2.6 |
| 2/21 | Leverkusen2 | 42% | 28% |
Atletico Madrid4 | 30% |
| LEV | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 2/21 | Man. City5 | 61% | 22% |
Monaco3 | 16% |
| MNC | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 2/15 | Bayern Munich5 | 59% | 23% |
Arsenal1 | 18% |
| BMU | ARS | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.8 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2/15 | Real Madrid3 | 57% | 22% |
Napoli1 | 22% |
| MAD | NAP | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 2/14 | PSG4 | 24% | 23% |
Barcelona0 | 53% |
| PSG | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 2/14 | Benfica1 | 32% | 25% |
Dortmund0 | 43% |
| BEN | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 12/7 |  Lyon0 | 44% | 26% |
Sevilla0 | 30% |
| LYON | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 12/7 | Porto5 | 49% | 27% |
Leicester City0 | 24% |
| POR | LEI | |
| Adjusted goals | 5.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 12/7 | Leverkusen3 | 47% | 26% |
Monaco0 | 28% |
| LEV | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 12/7 | Real Madrid2 | 59% | 20% |
Dortmund2 | 21% |
| MAD | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 12/7 |  Legia Warsaw1 | 24% | 26% |
 Sporting0 | 50% |
| WAR | SCP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| 12/7 | Juventus2 | 82% | 14% |
 Dinamo Zagreb0 | 4% |
| JUV | DIN | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 12/7 |  Tottenham3 | 73% | 20% |
 CSKA Moscow1 | 7% |
| TOT | CSKA | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 12/7 |  Club Brugge0 | 39% | 30% |
 Copenhagen2 | 31% |
| CBKV | COP | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 12/6 |  PSV0 | 62% | 22% |
 Rostov0 | 16% |
| PSV | ROS | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 12/6 |  Basel1 | 12% | 18% |
Arsenal4 | 70% |
| BAS | ARS | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 12/6 | PSG2 | 73% | 20% |
 Ludogorets2 | 7% |
| PSG | LUD | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 12/6 | Benfica1 | 34% | 27% |
Napoli2 | 39% |
| BEN | NAP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 12/6 |  Dynamo Kiev6 | 68% | 21% |
 Besiktas0 | 11% |
| KIEV | BES | |
| Adjusted goals | 6.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 12/6 | Bayern Munich1 | 57% | 26% |
Atletico Madrid0 | 18% |
| BMU | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 12/6 | Barcelona4 | 80% | 14% |
 Gladbach0 | 6% |
| BAR | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 12/6 | Man. City1 | 80% | 13% |
 Celtic1 | 7% |
| MNC | CEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 11/23 | Ludogorets0 | 58% | 25% |
Basel0 | 17% |
| LUD | BAS | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 11/23 | Gladbach1 | 24% | 25% |
Man. City1 | 51% |
| MGB | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| 11/23 | Atletico Madrid2 | 75% | 18% |
PSV0 | 7% |
| ATL | PSV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 11/23 | Napoli0 | 60% | 25% |
Dynamo Kiev0 | 15% |
| NAP | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 11/23 | Celtic0 | 7% | 11% |
Barcelona2 | 82% |
| CEL | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| 11/23 | Arsenal2 | 52% | 25% |
PSG2 | 23% |
| ARS | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 11/23 | Besiktas3 | 26% | 25% |
Benfica3 | 49% |
| BES | BEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 11/23 | Rostov3 | 6% | 13% |
Bayern Munich2 | 82% |
| ROS | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 11/22 | Sevilla1 | 35% | 28% |
Juventus3 | 36% |
| SEV | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 11/22 | Monaco2 | 44% | 27% |
Tottenham1 | 29% |
| MON | TOT | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 11/22 | Sporting1 | 22% | 23% |
Real Madrid2 | 55% |
| SCP | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 11/22 | Dortmund8 | 86% | 11% |
Legia Warsaw4 | 4% |
| DOR | WAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 7.6 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 11/22 | Leicester City2 | 71% | 20% |
Club Brugge1 | 9% |
| LEI | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 11/22 | Copenhagen0 | 27% | 30% |
Porto0 | 43% |
| COP | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 11/22 | Dinamo Zagreb0 | 30% | 28% |
Lyon1 | 43% |
| DIN | LYON | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 11/22 | CSKA Moscow1 | 27% | 27% |
Leverkusen1 | 46% |
| CSKA | LEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 11/2 | Sevilla4 | 73% | 19% |
Dinamo Zagreb0 | 8% |
| SEV | DIN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 11/2 | Monaco3 | 63% | 23% |
CSKA Moscow0 | 13% |
| MON | CSKA | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 11/2 | Porto1 | 74% | 18% |
Club Brugge0 | 7% |
| POR | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 11/2 | Dortmund1 | 67% | 21% |
Sporting0 | 12% |
| DOR | SCP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 11/2 | Legia Warsaw3 | 5% | 10% |
Real Madrid3 | 86% |
| WAR | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 3.6 |
| 11/2 | Juventus1 | 74% | 19% |
Lyon1 | 7% |
| JUV | LYON | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 11/2 | Tottenham0 | 51% | 27% |
Leverkusen1 | 22% |
| TOT | LEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 11/2 | Copenhagen0 | 29% | 29% |
Leicester City0 | 42% |
| COP | LEI | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 11/1 | Ludogorets2 | 18% | 24% |
Arsenal3 | 57% |
| LUD | ARS | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 11/1 | PSV1 | 11% | 17% |
Bayern Munich2 | 72% |
| PSV | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 4.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 3.6 |
| 11/1 | Basel1 | 15% | 21% |
PSG2 | 65% |
| BAS | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 11/1 | Benfica1 | 46% | 28% |
Dynamo Kiev0 | 26% |
| BEN | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 11/1 | Gladbach1 | 56% | 23% |
Celtic1 | 21% |
| MGB | CEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 11/1 | Atletico Madrid2 | 84% | 13% |
Rostov1 | 3% |
| ATL | ROS | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| 11/1 | Man. City3 | 34% | 23% |
Barcelona1 | 44% |
| MNC | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 11/1 | Besiktas1 | 19% | 22% |
Napoli1 | 59% |
| BES | NAP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| 10/19 | PSG3 | 81% | 13% |
Basel0 | 5% |
| PSG | BAS | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10/19 | Rostov0 | 9% | 19% |
Atletico Madrid1 | 72% |
| ROS | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| 10/19 | Dynamo Kiev0 | 49% | 28% |
Benfica2 | 23% |
| KIEV | BEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10/19 | Bayern Munich4 | 84% | 12% |
PSV1 | 4% |
| BMU | PSV | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| 10/19 | Barcelona4 | 64% | 19% |
Man. City0 | 17% |
| BAR | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10/19 | Napoli2 | 78% | 16% |
Besiktas3 | 7% |
| NAP | BES | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10/19 | Celtic0 | 44% | 24% |
Gladbach2 | 32% |
| CEL | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10/19 | Arsenal6 | 75% | 18% |
Ludogorets0 | 7% |
| ARS | LUD | |
| Adjusted goals | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 10/18 | Lyon0 | 22% | 26% |
Juventus1 | 52% |
| LYON | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10/18 | CSKA Moscow1 | 34% | 29% |
Monaco1 | 38% |
| CSKA | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 10/18 | Sporting1 | 31% | 27% |
Dortmund2 | 42% |
| SCP | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10/18 | Leverkusen0 | 46% | 27% |
Tottenham0 | 27% |
| LEV | TOT | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10/18 | Real Madrid5 | 91% | 7% |
Legia Warsaw1 | 2% |
| MAD | WAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.9 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| 10/18 | Leicester City1 | 67% | 23% |
Copenhagen0 | 10% |
| LEI | COP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10/18 | Dinamo Zagreb0 | 26% | 26% |
Sevilla1 | 47% |
| DIN | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 10/18 | Club Brugge1 | 19% | 25% |
Porto2 | 56% |
| CBKV | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 9/28 | Ludogorets1 | 26% | 28% |
PSG3 | 46% |
| LUD | PSG | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| 9/28 | Rostov2 | 31% | 26% |
PSV2 | 43% |
| ROS | PSV | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| 9/28 | Besiktas1 | 24% | 26% |
Dynamo Kiev1 | 50% |
| BES | KIEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 9/28 | Gladbach1 | 12% | 16% |
Barcelona2 | 72% |
| MGB | BAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 9/28 | Atletico Madrid1 | 37% | 29% |
Bayern Munich0 | 34% |
| ATL | BMU | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 9/28 | Napoli4 | 63% | 23% |
Benfica2 | 14% |
| NAP | BEN | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 9/28 | Celtic3 | 15% | 18% |
Man. City3 | 67% |
| CEL | MNC | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 9/28 | Arsenal2 | 83% | 12% |
Basel0 | 5% |
| ARS | BAS | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 9/27 | Sevilla1 | 54% | 25% |
Lyon0 | 21% |
| SEV | LYON | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 9/27 | Monaco1 | 39% | 27% |
Leverkusen1 | 34% |
| MON | LEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 9/27 | CSKA Moscow0 | 27% | 28% |
Tottenham1 | 46% |
| CSKA | TOT | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 9/27 | Sporting2 | 72% | 20% |
Legia Warsaw0 | 8% |
| SCP | WAR | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 9/27 | Dortmund2 | 46% | 23% |
Real Madrid2 | 31% |
| DOR | MAD | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 9/27 | Leicester City1 | 50% | 26% |
Porto0 | 23% |
| LEI | POR | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 9/27 | Copenhagen4 | 55% | 27% |
Club Brugge0 | 17% |
| COP | CBKV | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 9/27 | Dinamo Zagreb0 | 15% | 24% |
Juventus4 | 61% |
| DIN | JUV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| 9/14 | Lyon3 | 59% | 24% |
Dinamo Zagreb0 | 16% |
| LYON | DIN | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 9/14 | Porto1 | 69% | 22% |
Copenhagen1 | 9% |
| POR | COP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 9/14 | Leverkusen2 | 69% | 21% |
CSKA Moscow2 | 10% |
| LEV | CSKA | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 9/14 | Real Madrid2 | 76% | 16% |
Sporting1 | 8% |
| MAD | SCP | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 9/14 | Legia Warsaw0 | 13% | 20% |
Dortmund6 | 67% |
| WAR | DOR | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 5.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.3 | 6.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| 9/14 | Juventus0 | 64% | 22% |
Sevilla0 | 13% |
| JUV | SEV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 9/14 | Man. City4 | 70% | 19% |
Gladbach0 | 12% |
| MNC | MGB | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 9/14 | Tottenham1 | 56% | 25% |
Monaco2 | 19% |
| TOT | MON | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 9/14 | Club Brugge0 | 24% | 26% |
Leicester City3 | 50% |
| CBKV | LEI | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 9/13 | PSV0 | 20% | 26% |
Atletico Madrid1 | 53% |
| PSV | ATL | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 9/13 | Basel1 | 35% | 29% |
Ludogorets1 | 36% |
| BAS | LUD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 9/13 | PSG1 | 46% | 26% |
Arsenal1 | 28% |
| PSG | ARS | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| 9/13 | Benfica1 | 69% | 19% |
Besiktas1 | 12% |
| BEN | BES | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 9/13 | Dynamo Kiev1 | 35% | 28% |
Napoli2 | 37% |
| KIEV | NAP | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 9/13 | Bayern Munich5 | 92% | 7% |
Rostov0 | 2% |
| BMU | ROS | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.7 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 9/13 | Barcelona7 | 88% | 8% |
Celtic0 | 4% |
| BAR | CEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 6.8 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 3.9 | 0.1 |
| SPI rating | round-by-round probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | off | def | make round of 16 | make quarters | make semis | make final | win final | |||
Real Madrid | 3.4 | 0.9 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |||
Juventus | 2.2 | 0.6 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | |||
Atletico Madrid | 1.9 | 0.6 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | |||
Monaco | 2.5 | 0.9 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | |||
Barcelona | 3.5 | 0.8 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |||
Dortmund | 2.5 | 0.9 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |||
Leicester City | 1.6 | 1.2 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |||
Bayern Munich | 3.1 | 0.7 | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |||
Arsenal | 2.5 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
PSG | 2.6 | 0.8 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Napoli | 2.6 | 0.8 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Porto | 1.8 | 0.9 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Sevilla | 1.9 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Leverkusen | 2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Man. City | 2.7 | 0.7 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Benfica | 2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |||
Copenhagen | 1.3 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Lyon | 2.1 | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Tottenham | 2.5 | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Besiktas | 1.8 | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Rostov | 1.4 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Dynamo Kiev | 1.9 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Gladbach | 1.7 | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Legia Warsaw | 1.6 | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
CSKA Moscow | 1.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Celtic | 2.4 | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Sporting | 1.7 | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Basel | 1.9 | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
PSV | 1.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Club Brugge | 1.0 | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
Dinamo Zagreb | 1.3 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | |||
The top four teams in the Premier League qualify for next season’s Champions League. The bottom three are relegated. Also, the third-from-last team in Bundesliga plays a home-and-away playoff match against the third-place team in the Bundesliga second division to determine an additional relegation and promotion. Also, the third-from-last team in Ligue 1 plays a home-and-away playoff match against the third-place team in the French second division to determine an additional relegation and promotion. The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye. The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs. One team — based on overall performance during the last three seasons — is relegated. The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs. Read more about how these predictions work.
By Jay Boice and Reuben Fischer-Baum
Comments