Updated Dec. 15, 2019, at 10:55 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated Dec. 14, 2019, at 4:55 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 6
12/11
PSG5
79%15%
Galatasaray0
5%
PSGGAL
Adjusted goals4.90.0
Shot-based xG5.00.2
Non-shot xG2.30.4
12/11
Olympiacos1
69%20%
Red Star0
11%
OLYRED
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG3.51.2
Non-shot xG2.30.3
12/11
Bayern Munich3
70%16%
Tottenham1
14%
BMUTOT
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.81.3
Non-shot xG2.50.3
12/11
Leverkusen0
46%24%
Juventus2
30%
LEVJUV
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG1.70.7
12/11
Atlético Madrid2
85%13%
Lokomotiv0
2%
ATLLOK
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.1
Non-shot xG1.00.3
12/11
Club Brugge1
25%24%
Real Madrid3
51%
CBKVMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG1.21.7
12/11
Shakhtar0
45%23%
Atalanta3
32%
SHKATA
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.63.0
Non-shot xG1.51.9
12/11
Dinamo Zagreb1
18%20%
Man. City4
63%
DINMNC
Adjusted goals1.13.9
Shot-based xG0.43.3
Non-shot xG0.42.4
12/10
Lyon2
38%25%
RB Leipzig2
36%
LYONRBL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.53.3
Non-shot xG1.11.6
12/10
Benfica3
43%28%
Zenit0
29%
BENZEN
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.70.2
Non-shot xG1.50.4
12/10
Dortmund2
80%14%
Slavia Prague1
6%
DORSSP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.82.8
Non-shot xG1.51.8
12/10
Inter Milan1
40%23%
Barcelona2
37%
INTBAR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.7
Non-shot xG2.21.4
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City14 pts
C
94.9
3.3
0.3
80%57%39%24%
Bayern Munich18 pts
B
94.0
3.5
0.4
79%55%36%21%
Liverpool13 pts
E
92.6
2.9
0.3
73%45%26%14%
PSG16 pts
A
89.8
2.9
0.5
68%37%19%9%
Barcelona14 pts
F
89.0
2.9
0.5
70%36%17%8%
Real Madrid11 pts
A
89.3
2.9
0.5
45%24%12%6%
RB Leipzig11 pts
G
85.7
2.7
0.6
55%24%10%4%
Juventus16 pts
D
85.1
2.5
0.5
53%23%9%3%
Atlético Madrid10 pts
D
86.7
2.2
0.3
34%16%7%3%
Chelsea11 pts
H
85.2
2.6
0.6
40%18%7%3%
Tottenham10 pts
B
83.3
2.5
0.6
47%18%6%2%
Dortmund10 pts
F
83.1
2.5
0.7
39%15%5%2%
Napoli12 pts
E
78.7
2.3
0.7
30%9%3%<1%
Atalanta7 pts
C
76.8
2.4
0.8
29%9%2%<1%
Valencia11 pts
H
72.8
2.1
0.9
39%8%2%<1%
Lyon8 pts
G
72.6
1.9
0.7
21%5%<1%<1%
Ajax10 pts
H
81.3
2.9
1.0
RB Salzburg7 pts
E
79.3
2.9
1.1
Benfica7 pts
G
77.9
2.3
0.7
Zenit7 pts
G
76.7
2.0
0.6
Inter Milan7 pts
F
79.9
2.3
0.7
Shakhtar6 pts
C
69.9
2.1
1.0
Leverkusen6 pts
D
80.2
2.3
0.6
Dinamo Zagreb5 pts
C
65.4
2.1
1.1
Olympiacos4 pts
B
71.6
2.0
0.8
Club Brugge3 pts
A
71.5
2.0
0.8
Red Star3 pts
B
56.5
1.9
1.4
Lokomotiv3 pts
D
57.9
1.6
1.1
Slavia Prague2 pts
F
63.2
1.9
1.1
Galatasaray2 pts
A
58.2
1.6
1.1
Lille1 pt
H
70.0
1.8
0.7
Genk1 pt
E
54.4
1.7
1.4
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