Updated Jan. 23, 2020, at 4:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated Jan. 23, 2020, at 4:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 16, First leg
2/18
Atlético Madrid
29%
27%
Liverpool
44%
2/18
Dortmund
32%
21%
PSG
47%
2/19
Tottenham
37%
23%
RB Leipzig
40%
2/19
Atalanta
63%
20%
Valencia
18%
2/25
Chelsea
30%
21%
Bayern Munich
49%
2/25
Napoli
24%
22%
Barcelona
53%
2/26
Real Madrid
39%
23%
Man. City
38%
2/26
Lyon
31%
26%
Juventus
43%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 6
12/11
PSG5
79%15%
Galatasaray0
5%
PSGGAL
Adjusted goals4.90.0
Shot-based xG5.00.2
Non-shot xG2.30.4
12/11
Olympiacos1
69%20%
Red Star0
11%
OLYRED
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG3.51.2
Non-shot xG2.30.3
12/11
Bayern Munich3
70%16%
Tottenham1
14%
BMUTOT
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.81.3
Non-shot xG2.50.3
12/11
Leverkusen0
46%24%
Juventus2
30%
LEVJUV
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG1.70.7
12/11
Atlético Madrid2
85%13%
Lokomotiv0
2%
ATLLOK
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.1
Non-shot xG1.00.3
12/11
Club Brugge1
25%24%
Real Madrid3
51%
CBKVMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG1.21.7
12/11
Shakhtar0
45%23%
Atalanta3
32%
SHKATA
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.63.0
Non-shot xG1.51.9
12/11
Dinamo Zagreb1
18%20%
Man. City4
63%
DINMNC
Adjusted goals1.13.9
Shot-based xG0.43.3
Non-shot xG0.42.4
12/10
Lyon2
38%25%
RB Leipzig2
36%
LYONRBL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.53.3
Non-shot xG1.11.6
12/10
Benfica3
43%28%
Zenit0
29%
BENZEN
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.70.2
Non-shot xG1.50.4
12/10
Dortmund2
80%14%
Slavia Prague1
6%
DORSSP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.82.8
Non-shot xG1.51.8
12/10
Inter Milan1
40%23%
Barcelona2
37%
INTBAR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.7
Non-shot xG2.21.4
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Liverpool
94.1
3.0
0.2
76%52%34%20%
Bayern Munich
93.8
3.5
0.4
74%52%33%20%
Man. City
94.1
3.3
0.3
64%45%30%17%
PSG
90.0
3.1
0.5
71%41%21%10%
Barcelona
89.2
2.8
0.5
79%42%20%9%
Real Madrid
89.9
2.8
0.4
36%21%12%6%
RB Leipzig
85.5
2.7
0.6
65%29%11%4%
Juventus
83.8
2.5
0.6
73%29%10%4%
Chelsea
86.1
2.5
0.5
26%12%6%2%
Atlético Madrid
85.9
2.2
0.3
24%12%5%2%
Atalanta
79.8
2.5
0.8
67%21%6%2%
Dortmund
83.1
2.6
0.7
29%12%5%2%
Tottenham
80.1
2.3
0.7
35%12%3%1%
Napoli
76.6
2.2
0.7
21%6%2%<1%
Lyon
72.9
1.9
0.7
27%6%1%<1%
Valencia
71.0
2.1
0.9
33%7%1%<1%
Ajax
80.7
2.9
1.0
RB Salzburg
79.3
2.9
1.1
Benfica
78.2
2.2
0.7
Zenit
76.7
2.0
0.6
Inter Milan
79.9
2.3
0.7
Shakhtar
69.9
2.1
1.0
Leverkusen
79.7
2.2
0.6
Dinamo Zagreb
65.4
2.1
1.1
Olympiacos
75.4
2.1
0.8
Club Brugge
73.8
2.1
0.8
Red Star
56.5
1.9
1.4
Lokomotiv
57.9
1.6
1.1
Slavia Prague
63.2
1.9
1.1
Galatasaray
59.2
1.7
1.1
Lille
66.6
1.7
0.8
Genk
54.7
1.7
1.3
Forecast from
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