Updated Sept. 23, 2018 at 7:52 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated Sept. 23, 2018, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/2
Juventus
66%
19%
Young Boys
15%
10/2
Hoffenheim
20%
21%
Man. City
60%
10/2
Man. United
52%
25%
Valencia
23%
10/2
Roma
67%
20%
Viktoria Plzen
13%
10/2
Bayern Munich
73%
17%
Ajax
11%
10/2
AEK Athens
35%
33%
Benfica
32%
10/2
CSKA Moscow
23%
24%
Real Madrid
53%
10/2
Lyon
52%
25%
Shakhtar
23%
10/3
Lokomotiv
32%
30%
Schalke 04
38%
10/3
PSG
77%
16%
Red Star
7%
10/3
Tottenham
35%
23%
Barcelona
43%
10/3
Napoli
37%
26%
Liverpool
36%
10/3
Atlético Madrid
66%
21%
Club Brugge
13%
10/3
Dortmund
63%
22%
Monaco
15%
10/3
Porto
60%
22%
Galatasaray
18%
10/3
PSV
43%
23%
Inter Milan
34%
10/23
Young Boys
49%
22%
Valencia
29%
10/23
AEK Athens
13%
24%
Bayern Munich
62%
10/23
Man. United
35%
26%
Juventus
39%
10/23
Ajax
48%
26%
Benfica
26%
10/23
Roma
53%
26%
CSKA Moscow
21%
10/23
Real Madrid
85%
11%
Viktoria Plzen
4%
10/23
Shakhtar
20%
24%
Man. City
56%
10/23
Hoffenheim
43%
25%
Lyon
31%
10/24
Club Brugge
55%
23%
Monaco
22%
10/24
PSV
41%
22%
Tottenham
37%
10/24
Liverpool
81%
15%
Red Star
5%
10/24
Barcelona
70%
18%
Inter Milan
12%
10/24
Dortmund
37%
27%
Atlético Madrid
36%
10/24
Galatasaray
47%
25%
Schalke 04
28%
10/24
Lokomotiv
29%
28%
Porto
43%
10/24
PSG
56%
24%
Napoli
21%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/19
Viktoria Plzen2
29%28%
CSKA Moscow2
43%
VPLZCSKA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.01.6
9/19
Benfica0
26%25%
Bayern Munich2
49%
BENBMU
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.92.9
Non-shot xG1.41.8
9/19
Young Boys0
40%23%
Man. United3
37%
BSCYMAN
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG1.52.2
Non-shot xG1.21.3
9/19
Valencia0
35%26%
Juventus2
39%
VALJUV
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.94.2
Non-shot xG2.90.8
9/19
Real Madrid3
71%17%
Roma0
12%
MADROM
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG3.60.6
Non-shot xG3.81.1
9/19
Man. City1
73%18%
Lyon2
9%
MNCLYON
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG3.60.4
9/19
Shakhtar2
54%23%
Hoffenheim2
24%
SHKHOF
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.61.8
Non-shot xG1.31.1
9/19
Ajax3
56%26%
AEK Athens0
17%
AJXAEK
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG1.80.5
Non-shot xG2.00.6
9/18
Red Star0
26%26%
Napoli0
48%
REDNAP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.31.8
Non-shot xG0.21.5
9/18
Monaco1
26%27%
Atlético Madrid2
47%
MONATL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.70.9
Non-shot xG0.71.2
9/18
Galatasaray3
60%25%
Lokomotiv0
15%
GALLOK
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.71.0
Non-shot xG1.01.1
9/18
Schalke 041
42%26%
Porto1
32%
SCHPOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.92.4
Non-shot xG0.90.9
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich3 pts
E
93.3
3.1
0.3
87%11%2%98%72%48%29%16%
Real Madrid3 pts
G
92.5
3.2
0.4
87%10%2%98%72%46%27%14%
Barcelona3 pts
B
92.8
3.2
0.4
69%20%9%89%67%43%26%14%
Man. City0 pts
F
93.2
3.0
0.3
50%33%12%83%61%40%24%13%
Liverpool3 pts
C
90.8
2.8
0.3
63%26%9%90%62%36%19%10%
Juventus3 pts
H
89.5
2.6
0.3
65%25%8%90%57%31%16%8%
Atlético Madrid3 pts
A
86.8
2.3
0.3
62%29%8%91%53%25%11%6%
PSG0 pts
C
87.7
2.8
0.5
22%41%28%63%35%19%9%5%
Tottenham0 pts
B
84.7
2.5
0.5
10%25%34%35%19%9%4%2%
Man. United3 pts
H
81.1
2.3
0.6
27%43%23%70%31%12%4%2%
Napoli1 pt
C
83.1
2.3
0.5
14%28%45%42%20%9%4%2%
Dortmund3 pts
A
78.7
2.2
0.7
32%46%17%79%30%10%4%1%
Inter Milan3 pts
B
81.1
2.2
0.5
17%36%30%52%23%9%3%1%
Porto1 pt
D
78.5
2.2
0.7
45%29%18%75%28%10%3%1%
Lyon3 pts
F
76.8
2.1
0.7
35%35%18%70%26%8%3%1%
Ajax3 pts
E
78.1
2.5
0.9
10%50%30%60%22%7%2%<1%
Roma0 pts
G
77.2
2.2
0.7
6%47%30%53%18%6%2%<1%
PSV0 pts
B
78.4
2.8
1.0
4%19%27%23%9%3%1%<1%
Valencia0 pts
H
78.8
2.1
0.6
4%19%35%23%10%4%1%<1%
Benfica0 pts
E
76.0
2.1
0.7
2%30%39%32%10%3%1%<1%
CSKA Moscow1 pt
G
73.6
1.9
0.7
6%34%43%40%11%3%<1%<1%
Shakhtar1 pt
F
75.0
2.2
0.8
7%15%33%22%7%2%<1%<1%
Young Boys0 pts
H
77.7
2.7
1.0
4%14%34%18%7%2%<1%<1%
Schalke 041 pt
D
70.4
1.8
0.8
19%30%32%49%12%3%<1%<1%
Galatasaray3 pts
D
70.4
2.2
1.0
31%30%28%62%16%4%<1%<1%
Hoffenheim1 pt
F
72.7
2.2
0.9
8%17%37%25%8%2%<1%<1%
Club Brugge0 pts
A
73.4
2.3
1.0
4%14%44%18%6%2%<1%<1%
AEK Athens0 pts
E
67.3
1.6
0.7
<1%9%29%10%2%<1%<1%<1%
Monaco0 pts
A
67.2
1.9
0.9
1%11%32%12%3%<1%<1%<1%
Viktoria Plzen1 pt
G
62.3
1.9
1.2
<1%9%25%10%2%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star1 pt
C
66.6
2.0
1.0
<1%4%18%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv0 pts
D
60.5
1.5
0.9
4%11%22%15%2%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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