Updated March 23, 2020, at 6:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated March 15, 2020, at 1:59 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 16, Second leg
3/11
PSG2
58%19%
Dortmund0
22%
PSGDOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.4
Non-shot xG0.81.7
3/11
Liverpool2
68%21%
Atlético Madrid3
11%
LIVATL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG3.61.1
Non-shot xG4.00.7
3/10
RB Leipzig3
70%18%
Tottenham0
12%
RBLTOT
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.00.6
3/10
Valencia3
28%22%
Atalanta4
50%
VALATA
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG2.13.0
Non-shot xG1.31.0
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich
94.4
3.5
0.4
>99%71%48%29%
Man. City
94.8
3.2
0.2
90%64%43%26%
PSG
89.2
3.2
0.7
54%26%12%
Barcelona
90.3
2.9
0.4
87%49%25%11%
RB Leipzig
88.1
2.6
0.4
49%21%9%
Atalanta
82.8
2.7
0.7
37%12%4%
Atlético Madrid
83.8
2.1
0.4
37%12%4%
Juventus
84.3
2.4
0.5
53%22%8%3%
Real Madrid
89.5
2.7
0.4
10%6%3%2%
Lyon
73.5
1.8
0.6
47%10%2%<1%
Napoli
75.1
2.1
0.8
13%4%<1%<1%
Chelsea
85.5
2.4
0.5
<1%<1%<1%<1%
Liverpool
91.9
2.9
0.3
Valencia
69.5
2.0
0.9
Dortmund
85.4
2.6
0.6
Tottenham
76.6
2.2
0.8
Ajax
76.5
2.5
1.0
RB Salzburg
75.1
2.7
1.2
Benfica
73.3
2.1
0.8
Zenit
76.7
2.0
0.6
Inter Milan
79.5
2.3
0.7
Shakhtar
70.9
2.2
1.0
Leverkusen
82.9
2.4
0.6
Dinamo Zagreb
65.4
2.1
1.1
Olympiacos
73.8
1.9
0.7
Club Brugge
68.4
1.8
0.8
Red Star
56.5
1.9
1.4
Lokomotiv
60.3
1.6
1.0
Slavia Prague
63.2
1.9
1.1
Galatasaray
64.8
1.8
1.0
Lille
70.8
1.8
0.7
Genk
52.6
1.7
1.4
Forecast from
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