Updated May 26, 2019, at 8:15 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated May 26, 2019, at 4:38 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Final
6/1
Tottenham
28%
Liverpool
72%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Semifinals, Second leg
5/8
Ajax2
52%21%
Tottenham3
27%
AJXTOT
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.54.0
Non-shot xG1.62.7
5/7
Liverpool4
49%23%
Barcelona0
28%
LIVBAR
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.81.3
Non-shot xG1.42.3
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Liverpool
93.0
3.0
0.3
72%
Tottenham
82.1
2.3
0.5
28%
Barcelona
91.7
3.0
0.4
Ajax
82.8
3.2
1.1
Porto
80.5
2.3
0.6
Man. City
94.4
3.0
0.2
Juventus
80.9
2.2
0.5
Man. United
75.7
2.2
0.8
Bayern Munich
93.5
3.3
0.4
Atlético Madrid
84.2
2.1
0.4
Dortmund
79.0
2.4
0.7
Real Madrid
84.5
2.6
0.6
PSG
85.0
2.8
0.7
Schalke 04
64.6
1.8
0.9
Roma
74.3
2.2
0.8
Lyon
75.5
2.3
0.9
Napoli
79.9
2.3
0.7
Valencia
80.5
2.3
0.6
Inter Milan
81.6
2.2
0.5
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
Benfica
76.4
2.4
0.9
CSKA Moscow
70.0
1.9
0.8
Club Brugge
69.6
2.1
1.0
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
Young Boys
75.9
2.6
1.1
Red Star
63.2
2.0
1.2
Galatasaray
72.1
2.2
1.0
Lokomotiv
67.0
1.8
0.8
Hoffenheim
76.0
2.6
1.1
PSV
75.2
2.4
0.9
Monaco
63.5
1.7
0.9
AEK Athens
64.9
1.6
0.8
Forecast from
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