Updated Nov. 19, 2018, at 6:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated Nov. 11, 2018, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
11/27
AEK Athens
27%
29%
Ajax
44%
11/27
CSKA Moscow
65%
23%
Viktoria Plzen
11%
11/27
Man. United
59%
19%
Young Boys
21%
11/27
Roma
30%
22%
Real Madrid
48%
11/27
Juventus
59%
25%
Valencia
17%
11/27
Bayern Munich
75%
16%
Benfica
8%
11/27
Lyon
17%
20%
Man. City
63%
11/27
Hoffenheim
49%
22%
Shakhtar
29%
11/28
Atlético Madrid
78%
18%
Monaco
4%
11/28
Lokomotiv
49%
28%
Galatasaray
24%
11/28
Tottenham
54%
24%
Inter Milan
22%
11/28
Napoli
76%
17%
Red Star
7%
11/28
Dortmund
62%
20%
Club Brugge
18%
11/28
Porto
54%
26%
Schalke 04
20%
11/28
PSG
49%
24%
Liverpool
27%
11/28
PSV
34%
20%
Barcelona
46%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/7
CSKA Moscow1
37%29%
Roma2
34%
CSKAROM
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG0.81.7
11/7
Valencia3
56%22%
Young Boys1
23%
VALBSCY
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG1.10.9
11/7
Viktoria Plzen0
15%19%
Real Madrid5
67%
VPLZMAD
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG0.41.7
Non-shot xG1.22.5
11/7
Lyon2
43%24%
Hoffenheim2
33%
LYONHOF
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.81.8
Non-shot xG1.92.1
11/7
Benfica1
33%26%
Ajax1
41%
BENAJX
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.50.8
11/7
Bayern Munich2
77%18%
AEK Athens0
4%
BMUAEK
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.4
Non-shot xG2.10.3
11/7
Juventus1
61%22%
Man. United2
17%
JUVMAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.40.6
Non-shot xG2.71.1
11/7
Man. City6
78%15%
Shakhtar0
6%
MNCSHK
Adjusted goals5.40.0
Shot-based xG3.10.3
Non-shot xG1.50.4
11/6
Porto4
60%25%
Lokomotiv1
15%
PORLOK
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.41.9
11/6
Schalke 042
58%24%
Galatasaray0
17%
SCHGAL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG0.90.4
11/6
Atlético Madrid2
54%24%
Dortmund0
21%
ATLDOR
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG1.11.1
11/6
Napoli1
38%25%
PSG1
37%
NAPPSG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.4
Non-shot xG1.41.7
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City9 pts
F
94.9
3.2
0.2
93%6%<1%>99%80%58%39%22%
Bayern Munich10 pts
E
91.2
3.0
0.4
75%24%<1%>99%66%39%22%11%
Barcelona10 pts
B
90.9
3.2
0.5
96%4%—✓71%41%22%11%
Real Madrid9 pts
G
91.1
3.0
0.4
72%25%3%97%66%39%21%11%
Juventus9 pts
H
90.2
2.6
0.3
78%19%2%98%63%35%19%9%
Liverpool6 pts
C
90.6
2.7
0.3
38%29%29%68%45%26%14%7%
PSG5 pts
C
90.5
3.0
0.5
30%22%39%52%34%20%11%6%
Atlético Madrid9 pts
A
86.2
2.2
0.3
42%57%<1%>99%50%22%9%5%
Ajax8 pts
E
85.2
2.8
0.7
25%74%1%99%47%22%10%4%
Napoli6 pts
C
84.7
2.4
0.5
31%45%19%76%36%16%7%3%
Dortmund9 pts
A
81.5
2.5
0.7
58%40%2%98%42%16%6%2%
Roma9 pts
G
79.4
2.4
0.7
28%71%<1%>99%35%12%4%1%
Inter Milan7 pts
B
80.8
2.3
0.6
3%72%23%76%27%10%4%1%
Porto10 pts
D
78.4
2.2
0.7
78%21%<1%>99%38%12%4%1%
Man. United7 pts
H
79.4
2.3
0.7
17%59%23%76%29%10%3%1%
Tottenham4 pts
B
84.6
2.4
0.5
<1%24%71%24%12%5%2%<1%
Valencia5 pts
H
81.4
2.0
0.4
4%22%72%26%11%4%1%<1%
Lyon6 pts
F
72.2
2.1
0.9
7%70%23%76%19%5%1%<1%
Schalke 048 pts
D
71.3
1.8
0.7
22%76%2%98%19%4%<1%<1%
Shakhtar2 pts
F
73.6
2.2
0.9
—19%21%19%5%2%<1%<1%
Hoffenheim3 pts
F
75.7
2.4
0.9
<1%5%56%5%2%<1%<1%<1%
CSKA Moscow4 pts
G
71.8
1.7
0.6
<1%3%87%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Club Brugge4 pts
A
71.6
2.3
1.0
<1%3%95%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Galatasaray4 pts
D
66.7
1.9
1.0
—3%91%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Benfica4 pts
E
72.4
2.0
0.8
—1%93%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star4 pts
C
64.3
2.0
1.2
<1%4%13%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
PSV1 pt
B
78.9
2.7
1.0
——7%—————
Young Boys1 pt
H
74.6
2.7
1.2
——2%—————
Viktoria Plzen1 pt
G
60.4
1.9
1.2
——10%—————
Lokomotiv0 pts
D
67.5
1.7
0.8
——6%—————
Monaco1 pt
A
62.2
1.6
0.9
——2%—————
AEK Athens0 pts
E
66.5
1.6
0.7
——6%—————
Forecast from
Season

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