Updated Aug. 8, 2020, at 7:59 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

UEFA Champions League

2019-20

Updated Aug. 7, 2020, at 5:05 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 16, Second leg
8/8
Barcelona
70%
19%
Napoli
12%
8/8
Bayern Munich
61%
19%
Chelsea
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 16, Second leg
8/7
Juventus2
54%26%
Lyon1
21%
JUVLYON
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.71.0
Non-shot xG1.50.5
8/7
Man. City2
61%21%
Real Madrid1
18%
MNCMAD
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.00.7
Non-shot xG2.21.3
3/11
PSG2
58%19%
Dortmund0
22%
PSGDOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.4
Non-shot xG0.81.7
3/11
Liverpool2
68%21%
Atlético Madrid3
11%
LIVATL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG3.61.1
Non-shot xG4.00.7
3/10
RB Leipzig3
70%18%
Tottenham0
12%
RBLTOT
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.00.6
3/10
Valencia3
28%22%
Atalanta4
50%
VALATA
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG2.13.0
Non-shot xG1.31.0
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
95.6
3.3
0.2
✓✓88%52%37%
Bayern Munich
94.1
3.3
0.3
✓98%62%31%21%
PSG
89.2
3.2
0.7
✓✓63%37%14%
Barcelona
91.0
2.9
0.4
✓81%33%14%8%
RB Leipzig
85.8
2.5
0.5
✓✓52%24%7%
Atlético Madrid
85.5
2.1
0.3
✓✓48%22%7%
Atalanta
82.6
2.5
0.7
✓✓37%17%5%
Lyon
72.9
1.8
0.6
✓✓12%2%<1%
Napoli
77.8
2.1
0.6
✓19%4%<1%<1%
Chelsea
86.0
2.6
0.5
✓2%<1%<1%<1%
Juventus
80.9
2.4
0.7
✓————
Liverpool
91.1
2.8
0.3
✓————
Real Madrid
88.5
2.5
0.4
✓————
Valencia
66.2
1.8
0.9
✓————
Dortmund
83.3
2.4
0.6
✓————
Tottenham
76.4
2.1
0.7
✓————
Ajax
76.5
2.5
1.0
—————
RB Salzburg
81.4
3.0
1.1
—————
Benfica
72.1
2.1
0.9
—————
Zenit
78.0
2.2
0.7
—————
Inter Milan
81.8
2.4
0.6
—————
Shakhtar
72.1
2.2
1.0
—————
Leverkusen
80.4
2.3
0.6
—————
Dinamo Zagreb
65.4
2.1
1.1
—————
Olympiacos
75.2
2.0
0.7
—————
Club Brugge
68.4
1.8
0.8
—————
Red Star
56.5
1.9
1.4
—————
Lokomotiv
61.6
1.5
0.9
—————
Slavia Prague
63.2
1.9
1.1
—————
Galatasaray
56.3
1.7
1.2
—————
Lille
70.8
1.8
0.7
—————
Genk
52.6
1.7
1.4
—————
Forecast from
Season

Comments