Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 10:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2020-21

Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 5:44 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 2
10/27
Shakhtar
35%
23%
Inter Milan
42%
10/27
Lokomotiv
7%
15%
Bayern Munich
78%
10/27
Liverpool
82%
13%
Midtjylland
5%
10/27
Atalanta
43%
22%
Ajax
35%
10/27
Atlético Madrid
53%
22%
RB Salzburg
24%
10/27
Gladbach
30%
24%
Real Madrid
46%
10/27
Porto
45%
29%
Olympiacos
26%
10/27
Marseille
14%
21%
Man. City
65%
10/28
Başakşehir
9%
17%
PSG
74%
10/28
Krasnodar
20%
24%
Chelsea
56%
10/28
Club Brugge
45%
25%
Lazio
31%
10/28
Man. United
41%
25%
RB Leipzig
34%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 1
10/21
Olympiacos1
55%25%
Marseille0
19%
OLYMRS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG1.20.9
10/21
Bayern Munich4
62%20%
Atlético Madrid0
18%
BMUATL
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.60.4
Non-shot xG1.71.0
10/21
Inter Milan2
56%21%
Gladbach2
23%
INTMGB
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG3.01.3
Non-shot xG2.10.3
10/21
Ajax0
30%22%
Liverpool1
49%
AJXLIV
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.81.7
10/21
Man. City3
68%19%
Porto1
13%
MNCPOR
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG1.20.4
10/21
Midtjylland0
22%22%
Atalanta4
56%
FCMATA
Adjusted goals0.03.7
Shot-based xG0.82.9
Non-shot xG1.11.5
10/21
Real Madrid2
64%20%
Shakhtar3
16%
MADSHK
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG2.10.5
10/21
RB Salzburg2
69%19%
Lokomotiv2
12%
SALLOK
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG1.61.1
10/20
RB Leipzig2
85%12%
Başakşehir0
2%
RBLIBB
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.70.6
10/20
Rennes1
50%27%
Krasnodar1
22%
RENKRA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.51.3
Non-shot xG1.71.1
10/20
PSG1
61%20%
Man. United2
19%
PSGMAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.61.2
10/20
Barcelona5
86%11%
Ferencváros1
2%
BARFERE
Adjusted goals4.40.8
Shot-based xG2.81.1
Non-shot xG2.30.6
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich3 pts
A
94.7
3.5
0.4
87%11%2%98%80%59%43%28%
Man. City3 pts
C
92.0
2.9
0.3
83%13%3%96%68%44%26%15%
Barcelona3 pts
G
88.7
2.8
0.5
61%33%5%94%58%33%17%8%
PSG0 pts
H
89.7
3.0
0.5
25%35%36%60%38%23%13%7%
Liverpool3 pts
D
87.9
2.8
0.5
68%24%7%92%56%30%15%7%
Real Madrid0 pts
B
88.4
2.6
0.4
28%27%24%55%34%19%10%5%
RB Leipzig3 pts
H
85.9
2.5
0.5
34%31%34%64%37%19%9%4%
Dortmund0 pts
F
85.6
2.4
0.5
40%28%19%68%37%18%8%4%
Atlético Madrid0 pts
A
85.9
2.3
0.4
7%57%28%64%34%17%7%3%
Chelsea1 pt
E
83.6
2.4
0.5
46%37%13%82%41%18%7%3%
Man. United3 pts
H
83.2
2.4
0.6
41%33%23%74%38%17%7%3%
Inter Milan1 pt
B
84.8
2.6
0.6
27%25%26%52%27%13%6%3%
Juventus3 pts
G
81.8
2.4
0.6
37%55%7%91%39%16%6%2%
Sevilla1 pt
E
81.8
2.0
0.4
44%38%13%81%37%15%5%2%
Atalanta3 pts
D
78.9
2.5
0.8
23%42%33%64%24%9%3%1%
RB Salzburg1 pt
A
80.8
2.9
1.0
5%28%45%33%15%7%3%1%
Ajax0 pts
D
79.5
2.7
0.9
9%32%46%41%17%7%3%1%
Shakhtar3 pts
B
75.9
2.5
1.0
31%28%22%59%21%7%2%<1%
Gladbach1 pt
B
76.9
2.2
0.8
14%20%27%34%14%5%2%<1%
Olympiacos3 pts
C
75.0
2.0
0.7
10%44%34%54%18%6%2%<1%
Porto0 pts
C
75.7
2.2
0.8
5%33%36%37%13%4%1%<1%
Zenit0 pts
F
75.8
2.1
0.7
11%17%26%28%10%3%1%<1%
Lazio3 pts
F
70.3
2.0
0.9
26%28%25%54%15%4%<1%<1%
Club Brugge3 pts
F
69.8
2.0
0.9
24%27%29%51%13%3%<1%<1%
Rennes1 pt
E
66.9
1.7
0.8
6%14%37%20%5%1%<1%<1%
Marseille0 pts
C
65.5
1.7
0.8
2%11%26%12%3%<1%<1%<1%
Dynamo Kiev0 pts
G
66.3
1.9
1.0
2%9%57%10%2%<1%<1%<1%
Başakşehir0 pts
H
57.2
1.6
1.1
<1%1%7%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Krasnodar1 pt
E
61.8
1.7
1.0
4%12%36%16%3%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv1 pt
A
59.0
1.4
0.9
<1%5%25%5%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Midtjylland0 pts
D
57.2
1.7
1.2
<1%2%14%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ferencváros0 pts
G
54.3
1.6
1.2
<1%4%30%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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