Updated Feb. 23, 2020, at 2:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated Feb. 23, 2020, at 2:35 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 16, First leg
2/25
Chelsea
31%
22%
Bayern Munich
48%
2/25
Napoli
22%
21%
Barcelona
57%
2/26
Real Madrid
37%
24%
Man. City
39%
2/26
Lyon
31%
27%
Juventus
42%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 16, First leg
2/19
Atalanta4
69%18%
Valencia1
13%
ATAVAL
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG1.72.4
Non-shot xG1.41.9
2/19
Tottenham0
36%24%
RB Leipzig1
41%
TOTRBL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.82.2
Non-shot xG1.01.0
2/18
Dortmund2
37%21%
PSG1
42%
DORPSG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.3
Non-shot xG1.01.1
2/18
Atlético Madrid1
23%27%
Liverpool0
50%
ATLLIV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG0.61.4
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
94.9
3.2
0.2
✓66%48%33%21%
Bayern Munich
93.1
3.4
0.5
✓74%49%31%18%
Liverpool
94.0
2.9
0.2
✓55%38%25%15%
Barcelona
90.0
2.9
0.5
✓83%46%23%11%
RB Leipzig
88.0
2.7
0.5
✓89%44%20%8%
PSG
89.3
3.1
0.6
✓46%25%13%6%
Real Madrid
90.3
2.7
0.3
✓34%20%11%6%
Dortmund
86.0
2.7
0.6
✓54%24%10%4%
Juventus
83.6
2.4
0.6
✓73%28%10%4%
Atalanta
81.7
2.5
0.7
✓96%33%10%3%
Atlético Madrid
84.3
2.0
0.3
✓45%18%6%2%
Chelsea
85.6
2.4
0.5
✓26%12%5%2%
Napoli
75.6
2.1
0.8
✓17%5%1%<1%
Tottenham
79.1
2.2
0.7
✓11%3%<1%<1%
Lyon
73.2
1.8
0.6
✓27%6%1%<1%
Valencia
69.4
2.0
0.9
✓4%<1%<1%<1%
Ajax
77.8
2.6
1.0
—————
RB Salzburg
76.6
2.8
1.2
—————
Benfica
74.6
2.1
0.8
—————
Zenit
76.7
2.0
0.6
—————
Inter Milan
80.2
2.3
0.7
—————
Shakhtar
70.2
2.1
1.0
—————
Leverkusen
80.9
2.4
0.7
—————
Dinamo Zagreb
65.4
2.1
1.1
—————
Olympiacos
74.1
2.0
0.7
—————
Club Brugge
70.8
1.9
0.8
—————
Red Star
56.5
1.9
1.4
—————
Lokomotiv
57.9
1.6
1.1
—————
Slavia Prague
63.2
1.9
1.1
—————
Galatasaray
64.7
1.8
1.0
—————
Lille
68.7
1.7
0.7
—————
Genk
52.6
1.6
1.3
—————
Forecast from
Season

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