Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2019-20 season

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 1:26 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 3
10/22
Atlético Madrid
55%
25%
Leverkusen
20%
10/22
Shakhtar
53%
23%
Dinamo Zagreb
24%
10/22
Club Brugge
29%
26%
PSG
46%
10/22
Tottenham
68%
18%
Red Star
13%
10/22
Man. City
84%
11%
Atalanta
5%
10/22
Juventus
75%
18%
Lokomotiv
7%
10/22
Galatasaray
22%
23%
Real Madrid
55%
10/22
Olympiacos
25%
23%
Bayern Munich
52%
10/23
Ajax
45%
22%
Chelsea
33%
10/23
RB Leipzig
54%
24%
Zenit
22%
10/23
Genk
10%
17%
Liverpool
73%
10/23
RB Salzburg
54%
20%
Napoli
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 2
10/2
RB Leipzig0
62%22%
Lyon2
16%
RBLLYON
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.91.6
Non-shot xG1.30.8
10/2
Lille1
27%26%
Chelsea2
47%
LLECHE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG1.01.6
10/2
Zenit3
48%27%
Benfica1
25%
ZENBEN
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.51.3
10/2
Valencia0
36%21%
Ajax3
43%
VALAJX
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG0.91.8
10/2
Barcelona2
62%21%
Inter Milan1
17%
BARINT
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.0
Non-shot xG3.51.3
10/2
Liverpool4
65%18%
RB Salzburg3
17%
LIVSAL
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.81.2
Non-shot xG2.71.5
10/2
Slavia Prague0
22%22%
Dortmund2
56%
SSPDOR
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG0.91.3
10/2
Genk0
23%22%
Napoli0
55%
GENKNAP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.73.6
Non-shot xG1.01.2
10/1
Red Star3
29%26%
Olympiacos1
45%
REDOLY
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.91.0
10/1
Lokomotiv0
26%29%
Atlético Madrid2
46%
LOKATL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.32.8
Non-shot xG0.92.2
10/1
Galatasaray0
21%24%
PSG1
55%
GALPSG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.52.8
Non-shot xG1.51.9
10/1
Juventus3
57%23%
Leverkusen0
21%
JUVLEV
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.60.9
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City6 pts
C
95.6
3.3
0.2
98%2%<1%>99%84%62%44%28%
Bayern Munich6 pts
B
92.9
3.2
0.4
95%4%<1%>99%75%48%29%16%
Liverpool3 pts
E
92.9
2.9
0.3
58%31%10%89%66%42%25%14%
PSG6 pts
A
89.8
2.8
0.4
90%8%2%98%66%38%19%9%
Barcelona4 pts
F
89.5
2.8
0.4
66%28%5%94%60%33%17%8%
Juventus4 pts
D
87.1
2.6
0.5
60%30%9%89%51%25%11%5%
Chelsea3 pts
H
85.9
2.5
0.5
28%36%31%65%35%16%7%3%
Ajax6 pts
H
83.5
2.9
0.9
62%27%10%89%46%20%7%3%
Atlético Madrid4 pts
D
84.7
2.2
0.4
35%48%14%83%39%17%7%2%
Dortmund4 pts
F
83.6
2.5
0.6
28%49%21%77%35%15%6%2%
Real Madrid1 pt
A
85.2
2.5
0.5
6%57%26%63%27%13%5%2%
RB Salzburg3 pts
E
83.4
3.1
1.0
21%31%42%52%25%11%5%2%
Napoli4 pts
E
81.3
2.4
0.6
21%37%39%57%25%9%3%1%
RB Leipzig3 pts
G
80.8
2.3
0.6
33%28%27%61%26%10%3%1%
Zenit4 pts
G
78.0
2.2
0.7
37%29%25%66%25%8%3%<1%
Tottenham1 pt
B
79.9
2.3
0.7
3%53%27%56%22%8%2%<1%
Inter Milan1 pt
F
80.2
2.3
0.6
6%20%51%26%10%4%1%<1%
Leverkusen0 pts
D
79.5
2.3
0.7
3%11%30%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Valencia3 pts
H
73.8
2.1
0.8
9%32%42%41%12%3%<1%<1%
Lyon4 pts
G
71.9
1.9
0.8
25%31%27%56%16%4%<1%<1%
Shakhtar3 pts
C
69.9
2.1
1.0
<1%52%35%53%11%3%<1%<1%
Benfica0 pts
G
76.0
2.2
0.8
5%12%21%17%5%2%<1%<1%
Club Brugge2 pts
A
72.9
2.1
0.9
4%25%44%29%8%2%<1%<1%
Olympiacos1 pt
B
73.5
2.2
0.9
2%17%37%19%6%2%<1%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb3 pts
C
66.9
2.1
1.1
<1%41%44%42%8%2%<1%<1%
Atalanta0 pts
C
71.0
2.1
1.0
<1%5%21%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv3 pts
D
66.6
1.8
0.9
3%11%47%14%3%<1%<1%<1%
Galatasaray1 pt
A
64.1
1.8
1.0
<1%9%28%10%2%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star3 pts
B
62.8
2.0
1.2
<1%25%35%26%4%<1%<1%<1%
Lille0 pts
H
67.9
1.8
0.8
<1%4%17%5%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Genk1 pt
E
60.6
1.8
1.2
<1%2%9%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague1 pt
F
61.5
1.8
1.1
<1%3%23%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
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