Updated Apr. 21, 2018 at 4:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Champions League

2017-18 season

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 3:50 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/24
Liverpool
59%
24%
Roma
18%
4/25
Bayern Munich
56%
20%
Real Madrid
24%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/11
Bayern Munich0
84%11%
Sevilla0
5%
BMUSEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.30.4
Non-shot xG1.61.5
4/11
Real Madrid1
58%21%
Juventus3
20%
MADJUV
Adjusted goals0.83.2
Shot-based xG3.82.7
Non-shot xG2.31.3
4/10
Roma3
25%24%
Barcelona0
51%
ROMBAR
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.70.9
Non-shot xG1.50.7
4/10
Man. City1
47%25%
Liverpool2
28%
MNCLIV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG2.21.3
See all
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Bayern Munich
93.8
3.4
0.4
60%41%
Liverpool
88.2
2.9
0.5
65%25%
Real Madrid
91.9
3.6
0.6
40%24%
Roma
81.0
2.3
0.6
35%10%
Man. City
90.5
3.0
0.5
Barcelona
91.2
3.1
0.5
Juventus
86.5
2.5
0.4
Sevilla
73.2
2.1
0.9
Tottenham
85.5
2.6
0.6
Man. United
78.9
2.3
0.7
PSG
89.9
3.1
0.6
Beşiktaş
71.5
2.0
0.8
Basel
65.5
1.7
0.8
Shakhtar
73.6
2.2
0.8
Chelsea
80.4
2.4
0.7
Porto
78.3
2.2
0.7
CSKA Moscow
71.9
1.9
0.7
RB Leipzig
71.0
2.2
1.0
Atlético Madrid
84.7
2.2
0.4
Sporting
69.6
1.9
0.9
Spartak Moscow
70.3
2.1
0.9
Napoli
82.0
2.4
0.6
Celtic
51.5
1.5
1.2
Anderlecht
59.8
1.7
1.1
NK Maribor
41.2
1.4
1.7
Feyenoord
63.4
2.2
1.3
Dortmund
79.6
2.5
0.8
Monaco
70.9
2.2
1.0
Qarabağ
40.3
1.2
1.4
Apoel Nicosia
52.1
1.5
1.2
Olympiacos
60.4
1.6
1.0
Benfica
77.1
2.1
0.7
Forecast from
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