Updated April 24, 2019, at 2:27 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated April 24, 2019, at 2:26 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Semifinals, First leg
4/30
Tottenham
49%
21%
Ajax
30%
5/1
Barcelona
48%
24%
Liverpool
29%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Quarterfinals, Second leg
4/17
Porto1
26%27%
Liverpool4
48%
PORLIV
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG1.03.3
Non-shot xG2.01.6
4/17
Man. City4
67%20%
Tottenham3
13%
MNCTOT
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.30.8
Non-shot xG2.80.7
4/16
Barcelona3
73%16%
Man. United0
11%
BARMAN
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG2.20.7
4/16
Juventus1
51%21%
Ajax2
28%
JUVAJX
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.92.4
Non-shot xG1.31.6
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Liverpool
93.6
2.9
0.2
50%35%
Barcelona
93.4
3.1
0.3
50%34%
Tottenham
84.5
2.4
0.5
51%16%
Ajax
83.3
3.2
1.0
49%15%
Porto
79.3
2.2
0.7
Man. City
94.7
3.1
0.2
Juventus
82.8
2.3
0.5
Man. United
76.8
2.2
0.8
Bayern Munich
93.7
3.2
0.3
Atlético Madrid
87.2
2.2
0.2
Dortmund
79.9
2.3
0.7
Real Madrid
87.6
2.8
0.5
PSG
87.4
2.9
0.6
Schalke 04
61.7
1.8
1.1
Roma
73.5
2.2
0.9
Lyon
73.5
2.2
0.9
Napoli
80.0
2.2
0.6
Valencia
82.0
2.1
0.5
Inter Milan
81.4
2.2
0.5
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
Benfica
77.1
2.3
0.8
CSKA Moscow
70.3
1.8
0.7
Club Brugge
71.4
2.1
0.9
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
Young Boys
74.2
2.3
0.9
Red Star
63.2
2.0
1.2
Galatasaray
73.5
2.2
0.9
Lokomotiv
67.4
1.7
0.8
Hoffenheim
78.2
2.6
1.0
PSV
75.5
2.5
1.0
Monaco
63.2
1.6
0.9
AEK Athens
62.5
1.6
0.8
Forecast from
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