Updated Feb. 18, 2019, at 8:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated Feb. 18, 2019, at 5:14 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/19
Liverpool
47%
23%
Bayern Munich
30%
2/19
Lyon
19%
20%
Barcelona
60%
2/20
Atlético Madrid
44%
29%
Juventus
27%
2/20
Schalke 04
11%
17%
Man. City
72%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/13
Ajax1
39%21%
Real Madrid2
41%
AJXMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG2.21.1
2/13
Tottenham3
53%23%
Dortmund0
24%
TOTDOR
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.30.3
Non-shot xG1.11.0
2/12
Roma2
48%25%
Porto1
27%
ROMPOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.41.1
2/12
Man. United0
26%21%
PSG2
53%
MANPSG
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.32.6
Non-shot xG1.01.2
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
93.9
3.1
0.3
92%62%39%22%
PSG
91.2
3.0
0.4
97%58%32%16%
Barcelona
91.2
3.1
0.4
82%48%26%13%
Bayern Munich
91.9
3.2
0.4
52%33%19%10%
Liverpool
91.7
2.8
0.3
48%30%17%9%
Real Madrid
87.1
2.8
0.6
76%36%16%7%
Tottenham
85.0
2.5
0.5
96%39%15%6%
Juventus
88.0
2.5
0.4
54%27%13%6%
Atlético Madrid
86.4
2.1
0.2
46%20%9%5%
Ajax
83.7
3.1
1.0
24%10%4%2%
Roma
76.7
2.3
0.8
58%15%4%1%
Porto
77.9
2.1
0.7
42%12%3%1%
Lyon
75.1
2.1
0.8
18%5%1%<1%
Dortmund
81.2
2.4
0.6
4%2%<1%<1%
Man. United
78.9
2.3
0.7
3%1%<1%<1%
Schalke 04
70.2
1.9
0.8
8%2%<1%<1%
Napoli
83.7
2.3
0.5
Valencia
83.4
2.1
0.4
Inter Milan
81.6
2.1
0.5
Viktoria Plzen
63.5
2.0
1.2
Benfica
77.9
2.3
0.8
CSKA Moscow
73.0
1.7
0.6
Club Brugge
68.8
2.0
1.0
Shakhtar
72.7
2.2
0.9
Young Boys
75.1
2.5
1.0
Red Star
63.2
2.0
1.2
Galatasaray
71.8
2.2
0.9
Lokomotiv
63.3
1.6
0.9
Hoffenheim
75.8
2.5
1.0
PSV
77.9
2.7
1.0
Monaco
58.9
1.5
1.0
AEK Athens
66.6
1.6
0.7
Forecast from
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