Updated Oct. 18, 2018 at 12:05 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated Oct. 7, 2018, at 5:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/23
Young Boys
41%
24%
Valencia
35%
10/23
AEK Athens
18%
26%
Bayern Munich
56%
10/23
Man. United
33%
25%
Juventus
42%
10/23
Ajax
55%
24%
Benfica
21%
10/23
Roma
57%
26%
CSKA Moscow
17%
10/23
Real Madrid
87%
10%
Viktoria Plzen
3%
10/23
Shakhtar
21%
24%
Man. City
55%
10/23
Hoffenheim
42%
25%
Lyon
33%
10/24
Club Brugge
57%
22%
Monaco
21%
10/24
PSV
42%
23%
Tottenham
35%
10/24
Liverpool
86%
12%
Red Star
2%
10/24
Barcelona
70%
18%
Inter Milan
12%
10/24
Dortmund
39%
27%
Atlético Madrid
35%
10/24
Galatasaray
46%
27%
Schalke 04
28%
10/24
Lokomotiv
30%
30%
Porto
40%
10/24
PSG
61%
22%
Napoli
18%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/3
PSV1
44%24%
Inter Milan2
32%
PSVINT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.82.7
Non-shot xG1.42.2
10/3
Porto1
60%23%
Galatasaray0
17%
PORGAL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.71.9
Non-shot xG1.31.4
10/3
Dortmund3
67%20%
Monaco0
13%
DORMON
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.80.5
Non-shot xG2.11.3
10/3
Atlético Madrid3
64%22%
Club Brugge1
14%
ATLCBKV
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.10.6
Non-shot xG2.01.2
10/3
Napoli1
37%26%
Liverpool0
37%
NAPLIV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.2
Non-shot xG1.10.7
10/3
Tottenham2
37%23%
Barcelona4
40%
TOTBAR
Adjusted goals2.13.7
Shot-based xG0.51.9
Non-shot xG1.02.1
10/3
PSG6
79%15%
Red Star1
6%
PSGRED
Adjusted goals6.01.1
Shot-based xG5.60.2
Non-shot xG4.00.2
10/3
Lokomotiv0
35%30%
Schalke 041
35%
LOKSCH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG0.71.0
10/2
Lyon2
51%25%
Shakhtar2
24%
LYONSHK
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.41.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
10/2
CSKA Moscow1
24%25%
Real Madrid0
51%
CSKAMAD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.52.0
Non-shot xG0.92.3
10/2
AEK Athens2
39%33%
Benfica3
28%
AEKBEN
Adjusted goals1.73.2
Shot-based xG2.51.2
Non-shot xG1.10.7
10/2
Bayern Munich1
69%18%
Ajax1
12%
BMUAJX
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.6
Non-shot xG2.71.8
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2nd3rdmake round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City3 pts
F
93.8
2.9
0.2
71%22%5%93%71%48%30%17%
Barcelona6 pts
B
92.4
3.1
0.4
80%18%2%98%71%45%26%14%
Real Madrid3 pts
G
91.7
3.0
0.4
70%23%6%93%66%40%22%12%
Juventus6 pts
H
90.7
2.7
0.3
83%14%3%97%65%39%21%11%
Bayern Munich4 pts
E
90.9
2.9
0.4
66%28%5%94%61%36%20%10%
Liverpool3 pts
C
90.6
2.7
0.3
41%38%19%79%52%30%16%8%
PSG3 pts
C
90.7
3.1
0.5
38%31%29%69%46%27%15%8%
Atlético Madrid6 pts
A
87.3
2.2
0.3
63%34%2%97%57%27%12%7%
Napoli4 pts
C
83.8
2.3
0.5
21%29%45%51%25%11%5%2%
Ajax4 pts
E
82.0
2.7
0.8
27%42%28%69%30%12%4%2%
Dortmund6 pts
A
80.1
2.4
0.7
36%56%8%92%34%12%4%2%
Inter Milan6 pts
B
80.2
2.2
0.6
19%59%19%78%31%11%4%2%
Man. United4 pts
H
79.4
2.3
0.7
14%48%32%62%25%9%3%1%
Roma3 pts
G
79.1
2.3
0.7
17%38%39%55%22%8%3%1%
Porto4 pts
D
78.0
2.2
0.7
51%31%14%82%29%9%3%1%
Valencia1 pt
H
80.5
2.1
0.5
3%28%40%31%13%5%2%<1%
Lyon4 pts
F
75.2
2.1
0.7
21%42%22%63%20%6%2%<1%
Tottenham0 pts
B
84.2
2.4
0.5
1%14%46%15%7%3%1%<1%
Benfica3 pts
E
75.5
2.1
0.7
7%28%56%35%10%3%<1%<1%
Schalke 044 pts
D
71.7
1.8
0.7
30%37%28%67%17%4%1%<1%
Shakhtar2 pts
F
75.0
2.2
0.8
5%18%39%23%7%2%<1%<1%
CSKA Moscow4 pts
G
72.3
1.8
0.6
12%37%44%49%13%3%<1%<1%
Galatasaray3 pts
D
70.8
2.1
0.9
18%27%44%45%11%3%<1%<1%
Hoffenheim1 pt
F
72.0
2.2
0.9
3%18%33%20%6%2%<1%<1%
PSV0 pts
B
79.3
2.8
1.0
<1%9%33%9%4%1%<1%<1%
Young Boys0 pts
H
75.5
2.6
1.1
<1%10%25%11%3%1%<1%<1%
Club Brugge0 pts
A
72.9
2.3
1.0
<1%8%55%8%2%<1%<1%<1%
AEK Athens0 pts
E
68.5
1.7
0.7
<1%2%10%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv0 pts
D
63.4
1.5
0.8
1%5%14%6%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Monaco0 pts
A
64.9
1.8
0.9
<1%2%35%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star1 pt
C
64.7
2.0
1.1
<1%1%7%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Viktoria Plzen1 pt
G
61.0
1.9
1.2
<1%2%11%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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