Updated March 20, 2019, at 11:04 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Champions League

2018-19 season

Updated March 17, 2019, at 6:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/9
Liverpool
73%
19%
Porto
8%
4/9
Tottenham
23%
23%
Man. City
54%
4/10
Man. United
25%
21%
Barcelona
54%
4/10
Ajax
42%
23%
Juventus
35%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/13
Bayern Munich1
50%23%
Liverpool3
27%
BMULIV
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG0.31.1
Non-shot xG0.41.2
3/13
Barcelona5
78%14%
Lyon1
8%
BARLYON
Adjusted goals5.31.1
Shot-based xG4.30.7
Non-shot xG3.31.1
3/12
Juventus3
46%29%
Atlético Madrid0
25%
JUVATL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.80.5
Non-shot xG2.30.8
3/12
Man. City7
92%7%
Schalke 040
1%
MNCSCH
Adjusted goals7.40.0
Shot-based xG3.10.1
Non-shot xG2.40.2
3/6
PSG1
72%16%
Man. United3
11%
PSGMAN
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.52.0
Non-shot xG2.30.6
3/6
Porto3
53%24%
Roma1
23%
PORROM
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.71.6
Non-shot xG2.31.4
3/5
Dortmund0
45%25%
Tottenham1
30%
DORTOT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.80.9
Non-shot xG2.30.5
3/5
Real Madrid1
49%20%
Ajax4
31%
MADAJX
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG2.42.0
Non-shot xG2.71.5
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. City
94.7
3.2
0.2
80%61%35%
Liverpool
93.0
2.8
0.2
83%45%24%
Barcelona
93.0
3.2
0.4
80%45%24%
Juventus
86.3
2.5
0.4
59%19%7%
Ajax
82.8
3.0
0.9
41%11%4%
Tottenham
82.6
2.3
0.6
20%9%3%
Man. United
80.7
2.4
0.7
20%6%2%
Porto
79.3
2.2
0.6
17%5%1%
Bayern Munich
92.5
3.2
0.4
Atlético Madrid
85.8
2.1
0.3
Dortmund
81.3
2.4
0.7
Real Madrid
87.3
2.7
0.5
PSG
90.9
3.0
0.5
Schalke 04
63.4
1.8
1.0
Roma
74.2
2.2
0.9
Lyon
74.4
2.2
0.8
Napoli
82.3
2.2
0.5
Valencia
81.9
2.1
0.5
Inter Milan
79.7
2.2
0.6
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
Benfica
77.9
2.3
0.7
CSKA Moscow
73.5
1.7
0.6
Club Brugge
68.3
2.0
1.0
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
Young Boys
74.7
2.3
0.9
Red Star
63.2
2.0
1.2
Galatasaray
72.6
2.2
0.9
Lokomotiv
63.9
1.6
0.9
Hoffenheim
75.5
2.5
1.0
PSV
77.1
2.4
0.9
Monaco
61.3
1.6
0.9
AEK Athens
61.8
1.4
0.7
Forecast from
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