Updated Nov. 14, 2018, at 8:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated Nov. 11, 2018, at 5:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches
11/29
Astana
28%
27%
Dynamo Kiev
45%
11/29
Spartak Moscow
56%
25%
Rapid Vienna
19%
11/29
Anderlecht
67%
23%
Spartak Trnava
10%
11/29
RB Salzburg
42%
24%
RB Leipzig
35%
11/29
AC Milan
88%
10%
F91 Dudelange
2%
11/29
Rosenborg
23%
28%
Celtic
49%
11/29
Real Betis
55%
27%
Olympiacos
19%
11/29
Leverkusen
49%
25%
Ludogorets
26%
11/29
Zürich
49%
29%
AEK Larnaca
22%
11/29
Fenerbahçe
43%
28%
Dinamo Zagreb
29%
11/29
Vorskla
17%
24%
Arsenal
58%
11/29
Zenit
50%
27%
Copenhagen
23%
11/29
Bordeaux
57%
30%
Slavia Prague
14%
11/29
Krasnodar
75%
18%
Akhisarspor
8%
11/29
BATE Borisov
45%
30%
MOL Vidi
26%
11/29
Qarabağ
27%
32%
Sporting
41%
11/29
Standard Liège
23%
24%
Sevilla
53%
11/29
Apollon Limassol
16%
24%
Lazio
59%
11/29
Chelsea
60%
25%
PAOK
15%
11/29
Rangers
35%
23%
Villarreal
41%
11/29
Eintracht
51%
25%
Marseille
23%
11/29
Malmö
42%
27%
Genk
31%
11/29
Jablonec
30%
31%
Rennes
39%
11/29
Sarpsborg
23%
25%
Beşiktaş
52%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/8
Ludogorets0
63%28%
AEK Larnaca0
9%
LUDAEK
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG1.20.8
11/8
Slavia Prague0
32%30%
Copenhagen0
38%
SSPCOP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.0
Non-shot xG0.60.1
11/8
Bordeaux1
35%31%
Zenit1
34%
BORZEN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG1.80.8
11/8
Olympiacos5
84%14%
F91 Dudelange1
2%
OLYF91
Adjusted goals5.31.1
Shot-based xG2.90.2
Non-shot xG2.40.5
11/8
Vorskla0
49%30%
Qarabağ1
21%
VORQBG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.51.5
Non-shot xG0.80.5
11/8
Leverkusen1
63%21%
Zürich0
17%
LEVZUR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.7
Non-shot xG1.40.8
11/8
Real Betis1
42%28%
AC Milan1
30%
BETMIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.6
Non-shot xG1.00.7
11/8
Rosenborg2
25%25%
RB Salzburg5
50%
RBKSAL
Adjusted goals2.15.3
Shot-based xG1.03.4
Non-shot xG1.22.5
11/8
Celtic2
38%26%
RB Leipzig1
36%
CELRBL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG0.61.3
11/8
Arsenal0
61%23%
Sporting0
16%
ARSSCP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.70.2
11/8
Dinamo Zagreb3
67%25%
Spartak Trnava1
8%
DINTRN
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG2.70.3
Non-shot xG1.80.3
11/8
Akhisarspor2
9%18%
Sevilla3
73%
AKBSEV
Adjusted goals1.93.2
Shot-based xG1.52.6
Non-shot xG1.01.4
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2ndmake round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Chelsea12 pts
L
87.2
2.5
0.4
>99%<1%79%57%39%24%13%
PSG
90.5
3.0
0.5
39%33%26%19%13%8%
Sevilla9 pts
J
82.4
2.5
0.7
61%33%94%65%41%24%13%7%
Tottenham
84.6
2.4
0.5
71%54%35%22%13%7%
Arsenal10 pts
E
80.3
2.4
0.7
97%3%68%40%22%11%6%
Liverpool
90.6
2.7
0.3
29%25%18%14%9%5%
RB Salzburg12 pts
B
77.1
2.6
1.0
92%6%98%63%35%18%9%5%
Valencia
81.4
2.0
0.4
72%44%27%15%8%4%
Lazio9 pts
H
77.0
2.2
0.7
22%78%57%31%15%7%4%
RB Leipzig6 pts
B
78.7
2.3
0.7
7%62%69%40%23%12%6%3%
Real Betis8 pts
F
76.0
1.9
0.6
62%29%91%56%28%14%6%3%
Dynamo Kiev8 pts
K
73.0
2.1
0.8
65%33%98%54%28%13%6%3%
AC Milan7 pts
F
76.2
2.0
0.7
27%51%78%45%24%12%6%3%
Eintracht12 pts
H
73.5
2.1
0.8
78%22%58%28%12%5%2%
Club Brugge
71.6
2.3
1.0
95%53%25%11%5%2%
Benfica
72.4
2.0
0.8
93%45%22%10%4%2%
Krasnodar9 pts
J
71.4
1.9
0.8
39%58%96%49%23%10%4%2%
Napoli
84.7
2.4
0.5
19%15%10%6%3%2%
Villarreal6 pts
G
73.2
2.0
0.8
58%27%85%47%22%10%4%2%
CSKA Moscow
71.8
1.7
0.6
87%41%20%9%4%2%
Hoffenheim
75.7
2.4
0.9
56%29%15%7%3%2%
Leverkusen9 pts
A
70.6
2.1
1.0
74%26%51%22%9%4%2%
Genk7 pts
I
69.3
2.1
1.0
77%17%94%47%20%8%3%1%
Inter Milan
80.8
2.3
0.6
22%16%9%5%3%1%
Sporting7 pts
E
68.2
1.7
0.8
3%95%98%42%17%7%3%1%
Zenit8 pts
C
67.5
1.7
0.8
74%17%92%44%18%7%3%1%
Man. United
79.4
2.3
0.7
23%13%7%4%2%<1%
Galatasaray
66.7
1.9
1.0
91%43%17%6%2%<1%
PAOK3 pts
L
71.3
1.9
0.7
28%28%15%7%3%1%<1%
Shakhtar
73.6
2.2
0.9
21%11%6%3%1%<1%
Celtic6 pts
B
66.3
1.9
1.0
<1%32%33%14%6%3%1%<1%
Olympiacos7 pts
F
66.8
1.7
0.8
11%20%31%15%7%3%1%<1%
PSV
78.9
2.7
1.0
6%4%3%2%1%<1%
Real Madrid
91.1
3.0
0.4
2%2%2%1%<1%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb12 pts
D
60.3
1.6
1.0
94%6%39%12%4%1%<1%
Fenerbahçe7 pts
D
59.0
1.7
1.1
6%92%98%27%8%3%<1%<1%
Lyon
72.2
2.1
0.9
22%10%4%2%<1%<1%
Juventus
90.2
2.6
0.3
2%2%1%<1%<1%<1%
Beşiktaş4 pts
I
61.8
1.8
1.1
4%35%39%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Astana8 pts
K
56.7
1.7
1.2
35%53%88%27%7%2%<1%<1%
Malmö5 pts
I
60.7
1.7
1.0
15%33%48%17%6%2%<1%<1%
Copenhagen5 pts
C
60.9
1.8
1.2
11%23%34%12%5%1%<1%<1%
Red Star
64.3
2.0
1.2
13%6%3%1%<1%<1%
Zürich9 pts
A
53.3
1.6
1.2
26%74%24%6%1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv
67.5
1.7
0.8
6%4%2%<1%<1%<1%
Rangers5 pts
G
56.3
2.0
1.5
21%25%46%14%4%1%<1%<1%
Rennes3 pts
K
65.9
1.7
0.8
<1%13%13%5%2%<1%<1%<1%
Spartak Moscow5 pts
G
56.3
1.6
1.1
17%34%51%15%4%1%<1%<1%
AEK Athens
66.5
1.6
0.7
6%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Man. City
94.9
3.2
0.2
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Dortmund
81.5
2.5
0.7
2%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ajax
85.2
2.8
0.7
1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Young Boys
74.6
2.7
1.2
3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Bayern Munich
91.2
3.0
0.4
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Standard Liège6 pts
J
58.5
1.7
1.1
<1%9%9%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Atlético Madrid
86.2
2.2
0.3
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Viktoria Plzen
60.4
1.9
1.2
10%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Roma
79.4
2.4
0.7
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Schalke 04
71.3
1.8
0.7
2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Porto
78.4
2.2
0.7
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Bordeaux1 pt
C
61.3
1.5
0.9
5%5%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
BATE Borisov3 pts
L
49.5
1.5
1.3
14%14%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague7 pts
C
45.4
1.1
1.1
15%54%69%12%2%<1%<1%<1%
MOL Vidi6 pts
L
43.3
1.2
1.3
<1%58%58%9%1%<1%<1%<1%
Monaco
62.2
1.6
0.9
2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Jablonec2 pts
K
53.1
1.4
1.1
1%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Rapid Vienna4 pts
G
45.8
1.3
1.3
4%14%18%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Sarpsborg5 pts
I
37.1
1.2
1.6
5%14%19%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Qarabağ3 pts
E
47.3
1.3
1.2
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Vorskla3 pts
E
47.8
1.2
1.1
1%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Spartak Trnava3 pts
D
34.9
0.9
1.3
2%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ludogorets2 pts
A
64.3
1.7
0.9
Marseille1 pt
H
70.4
1.9
0.8
Anderlecht1 pt
D
58.6
1.7
1.1
AEK Larnaca2 pts
A
45.8
1.2
1.1
Apollon Limassol1 pt
H
46.2
1.3
1.3
Akhisarspor0 pts
J
44.0
1.3
1.4
Rosenborg0 pts
B
51.3
1.4
1.2
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
F91 Dudelange0 pts
F
36.6
1.4
1.8
Forecast from
Season

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