UEFA Europa League Predictions

UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 5:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches

Group stage, Matchday 5

11/28	Astana	15%	23%
	Man. United	62%

11/28	Trabzonspor	22%	27%
	Getafe	51%

11/28	Krasnodar	48%	25%
	Basel	27%

11/28	AZ Alkmaar	63%	22%
	Partizan	15%

11/28	Young Boys	32%	25%
	Porto	43%

11/28	Beşiktaş	51%	26%
	Slovan	23%

11/28	Başakşehir	28%	28%
	Roma	44%

11/28	Braga	31%	29%
	Wolves	40%

11/28	CSKA Moscow	44%	28%
	Ludogorets	27%

11/28	St Étienne	48%	26%
	Gent	26%

11/28	Feyenoord	27%	23%
	Rangers	50%

11/28	Ferencváros	30%	27%
	Espanyol	43%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

Group stage, Matchday 4

11/7	Wolfsberg0	46%	27%
	Başakşehir3	27%

	WOL	IBB
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.9
Shot-based xG	0.6	3.1
Non-shot xG	1.3	1.5

11/7	Oleksandriya2	27%	29%
	St Étienne2	43%

	FCO	STE
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.5	1.3
Non-shot xG	1.6	0.4

11/7	Ferencváros0	34%	29%
	CSKA Moscow0	37%

	FERE	CSKA
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.6	1.8
Non-shot xG	1.0	1.3

11/7	Feyenoord1	30%	22%
	Young Boys1	49%

	FEY	BSCY
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.3	2.8
Non-shot xG	1.9	1.8

11/7	Braga3	50%	25%
	Beşiktaş1	25%

	BRAG	BES
Adjusted goals	2.7	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.9	0.5
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.4

11/7	Gladbach2	48%	24%
	Roma1	27%

	MGB	ROM
Adjusted goals	2.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.2	1.2
Non-shot xG	1.2	1.6

11/7	Wolfsburg1	60%	23%
	Gent3	17%

	WLF	GENT
Adjusted goals	1.1	3.0
Shot-based xG	1.6	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.7

11/7	Espanyol6	49%	27%
	Ludogorets0	24%

	ESP	LUD
Adjusted goals	5.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	4.1	0.0
Non-shot xG	2.7	0.0

11/7	Rangers2	30%	28%
	Porto0	42%

	RANG	POR
Adjusted goals	2.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.5	0.7
Non-shot xG	0.8	1.1

11/7	Wolves1	74%	20%
	Slovan0	6%

	WOL	SLOV
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.2	0.4
Non-shot xG	1.3	0.8

11/7	Man. United3	76%	18%
	Partizan0	6%

	MAN	FKP
Adjusted goals	3.2	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.8	0.1
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.6

11/7	Lugano0	23%	30%
	Malmö0	48%

	FCL	MAL
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.8	0.3
Non-shot xG	1.2	0.9

		Team rating				chance of finishing group		round-by-round probabilities

team	group	spi	off.	def.	1st	2nd	make round of 32	make round of 16	make qtrs	make semis	make final	win final
RB Salzburg		83.8	3.1	0.9			87%	63%	44%	30%	20%	12%
Man. United10 pts	L	81.7	2.1	0.5	81%	19%	✓	69%	45%	28%	17%	9%
Sevilla12 pts	A	79.8	2.2	0.6	✓	—	✓	64%	39%	22%	12%	7%
Leverkusen		80.0	2.3	0.7			58%	39%	25%	15%	8%	5%
Arsenal10 pts	F	77.2	2.3	0.8	86%	12%	98%	60%	34%	19%	9%	4%
Inter Milan		79.3	2.4	0.7			57%	36%	22%	13%	7%	4%
Chelsea		87.2	2.6	0.5			25%	19%	14%	9%	6%	4%
Getafe6 pts	C	75.6	1.8	0.5	7%	67%	74%	45%	25%	13%	7%	3%
Porto4 pts	G	77.0	2.0	0.6	12%	36%	48%	30%	18%	11%	6%	3%
Wolves9 pts	K	73.7	1.8	0.6	48%	52%	>99%	56%	29%	14%	7%	3%
Gladbach5 pts	J	74.6	2.2	0.8	43%	31%	74%	42%	23%	12%	6%	3%
Eintracht6 pts	F	74.7	2.1	0.8	10%	57%	67%	39%	21%	11%	5%	2%
Zenit		77.4	2.1	0.6			38%	24%	14%	8%	4%	2%
Roma5 pts	J	74.1	2.1	0.8	27%	36%	63%	36%	20%	10%	5%	2%
Liverpool		93.0	3.0	0.3			6%	5%	4%	4%	3%	2%
Celtic10 pts	E	68.5	1.9	0.9	86%	14%	✓	49%	23%	10%	4%	2%
Espanyol10 pts	H	71.0	1.9	0.8	95%	5%	✓	51%	24%	11%	4%	2%
Wolfsburg5 pts	I	71.2	1.8	0.7	13%	68%	81%	42%	21%	10%	4%	2%
AZ Alkmaar8 pts	L	69.3	2.1	1.0	19%	72%	91%	45%	21%	9%	4%	2%
Olympiacos		72.4	2.0	0.8			52%	30%	16%	8%	4%	2%
Club Brugge		71.7	2.1	0.9			63%	34%	18%	9%	4%	2%
Basel10 pts	C	69.0	2.2	1.1	89%	11%	✓	49%	22%	10%	4%	2%
Ajax		83.5	3.0	0.9			16%	11%	7%	4%	3%	2%
Barcelona		88.8	2.8	0.5			9%	7%	5%	4%	2%	2%
Benfica		75.9	2.2	0.8			26%	16%	9%	5%	3%	1%
Dortmund		82.2	2.4	0.6			17%	11%	7%	4%	2%	1%
Rangers7 pts	G	67.1	2.0	1.0	57%	28%	85%	41%	18%	8%	3%	1%
Valencia		72.7	2.1	0.9			59%	30%	15%	7%	3%	1%
LASK Linz7 pts	D	66.8	1.8	0.9	38%	38%	77%	37%	16%	7%	3%	1%
Young Boys7 pts	G	67.6	2.3	1.3	30%	31%	61%	29%	13%	6%	2%	<1%
Dynamo Kiev6 pts	B	65.4	1.8	1.0	38%	43%	81%	36%	15%	6%	2%	<1%
Dinamo Zagreb		67.1	2.1	1.1			61%	29%	13%	5%	2%	<1%
Real Madrid		89.0	2.8	0.5			5%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
Lyon		72.4	2.0	0.8			32%	16%	8%	3%	1%	<1%
Shakhtar		70.2	2.2	1.0			33%	16%	8%	3%	1%	<1%
Ludogorets6 pts	H	62.0	1.7	1.0	3%	77%	80%	32%	12%	5%	2%	<1%
Sporting9 pts	D	63.5	1.7	0.9	43%	30%	73%	30%	12%	4%	1%	<1%
Tottenham		82.4	2.4	0.6			9%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
Krasnodar6 pts	C	68.4	1.9	0.9	4%	22%	26%	13%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
Lazio3 pts	E	72.7	2.1	0.9	—	15%	15%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
Braga10 pts	K	60.8	1.6	1.0	52%	45%	97%	36%	13%	4%	1%	<1%
Atlético Madrid		86.2	2.2	0.3			4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
PSV7 pts	D	65.0	2.1	1.2	19%	32%	51%	22%	9%	4%	1%	<1%
Copenhagen6 pts	B	59.7	1.8	1.2	41%	33%	74%	27%	9%	3%	1%	<1%
Lokomotiv		63.3	1.7	1.0			39%	17%	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
Gent8 pts	I	58.5	1.8	1.2	81%	19%	>99%	33%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
Atalanta		73.2	2.2	0.9			6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
Galatasaray		63.1	1.8	1.0			32%	14%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Malmö5 pts	B	60.7	1.5	0.9	21%	22%	43%	17%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Napoli		79.8	2.3	0.7			4%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
RB Leipzig		84.1	2.5	0.6			3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Başakşehir7 pts	J	57.6	1.5	1.0	28%	25%	53%	19%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Apoel Nicosia4 pts	A	57.1	1.6	1.1	—	59%	59%	20%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Red Star		58.9	2.0	1.4			39%	15%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Slavia Prague		62.2	1.9	1.1			18%	7%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
St Étienne3 pts	I	59.4	1.5	0.9	4%	11%	15%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Qarabağ4 pts	A	52.8	1.5	1.2	—	34%	34%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Standard Liège6 pts	F	55.5	1.6	1.2	4%	29%	32%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Man. City		95.2	3.3	0.2			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CFR Cluj9 pts	E	46.4	1.4	1.4	14%	71%	85%	17%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Wolfsberg4 pts	J	54.7	1.7	1.3	2%	8%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ferencváros5 pts	H	51.9	1.5	1.2	2%	17%	20%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Genk		55.8	1.7	1.2			3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lille		69.2	1.8	0.8			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Guimarães1 pt	F	58.0	1.5	1.0	—	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Slovan4 pts	K	46.1	1.3	1.2	—	4%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CSKA Moscow1 pt	H	64.1	1.7	0.9	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Partizan4 pts	L	50.9	1.5	1.2	—	9%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Feyenoord4 pts	G	52.1	1.8	1.5	<1%	5%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Oleksandriya3 pts	I	45.3	1.3	1.3	2%	3%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Dudelange3 pts	A	35.5	1.4	2.0	—	7%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lugano2 pts	B	41.0	1.1	1.3	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rennes1 pt	E	59.8	1.6	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Trabzonspor1 pt	C	56.7	1.7	1.2	—	—	<1%	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Beşiktaş0 pts	K	56.6	1.7	1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Astana0 pts	L	50.2	1.5	1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rosenborg0 pts	D	43.9	1.5	1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast from

Season

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 5:57 p.m.

Comments

	CLUJ	REN
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.0	1.8
Non-shot xG	0.9	1.8

	COP	KIEV
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	0.6	1.4
Non-shot xG	0.3	1.1

	LASK	PSV
Adjusted goals	3.7	1.1
Shot-based xG	2.6	1.4
Non-shot xG	2.1	0.7

	ASTA	ALK
Adjusted goals	0.0	5.0
Shot-based xG	0.2	3.4
Non-shot xG	0.8	2.0

11/28	Celtic	54%	25%
	Rennes	21%

11/28	Sevilla	66%	22%
	Qarabağ	12%

12/12	Copenhagen	40%	30%
	Malmö	30%

12/12	Eintracht	64%	22%
	Guimarães	14%

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 5:57 p.m.

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