Updated Sept. 19, 2019, at 5:52 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated Sept. 19, 2019, at 5:10 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 2
10/3
Astana
55%
26%
Partizan
19%
10/3
AZ Alkmaar
22%
24%
Man. United
54%
10/3
Young Boys
56%
22%
Rangers
22%
10/3
Beşiktaş
36%
24%
Wolves
40%
10/3
Başakşehir
26%
27%
Gladbach
47%
10/3
Braga
59%
26%
Slovan
15%
10/3
CSKA Moscow
45%
28%
Espanyol
27%
10/3
St Étienne
37%
27%
Wolfsburg
36%
10/3
Feyenoord
24%
24%
Porto
52%
10/3
Ferencváros
28%
31%
Ludogorets
41%
10/3
Oleksandriya
32%
26%
Gent
42%
10/3
Wolfsberg
30%
24%
Roma
45%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 1
9/19
Ludogorets5
37%32%
CSKA Moscow1
31%
LUDCSKA
Adjusted goals5.21.1
Shot-based xG3.01.0
Non-shot xG1.82.0
9/19
Partizan2
38%27%
AZ Alkmaar2
35%
FKPALK
Adjusted goals1.72.1
Shot-based xG2.71.2
Non-shot xG2.80.4
9/19
Porto2
56%23%
Young Boys1
22%
PORBSCY
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.70.7
9/19
Slovan4
33%27%
Beşiktaş2
40%
SLOVBES
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG2.31.8
Non-shot xG1.21.8
9/19
Gladbach0
65%21%
Wolfsberg4
15%
MGBWOL
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG1.72.0
Non-shot xG1.91.0
9/19
Wolfsburg3
74%18%
Oleksandriya1
8%
WLFFCO
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.40.8
9/19
Espanyol1
64%22%
Ferencváros1
14%
ESPFERE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.2
Non-shot xG2.10.9
9/19
Roma4
65%22%
Başakşehir0
13%
ROMIBB
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.11.1
9/19
Rangers1
49%24%
Feyenoord0
27%
RANGFEY
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG1.31.1
9/19
Wolves0
60%24%
Braga1
16%
WOLBRAG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG1.20.4
9/19
Man. United1
69%20%
Astana0
11%
MANASTA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.70.3
Non-shot xG2.00.3
9/19
Gent3
39%26%
St Étienne2
35%
GENTSTE
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.00.8
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2ndmake round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. United3 pts
L
82.3
2.3
0.5
86%11%97%70%45%28%16%9%
Liverpool
92.4
2.9
0.3
24%20%17%13%10%7%
Porto3 pts
G
78.6
2.3
0.7
69%21%90%60%37%21%12%6%
Sevilla3 pts
A
79.5
2.1
0.6
91%8%98%65%39%22%12%6%
Arsenal3 pts
F
79.2
2.4
0.8
77%16%93%62%36%21%11%5%
RB Salzburg
83.6
3.1
0.9
39%26%18%11%7%4%
Chelsea
84.1
2.5
0.6
36%25%17%11%6%3%
PSV3 pts
D
73.3
2.3
1.0
62%26%88%50%27%13%6%3%
Olympiacos
76.0
2.3
0.8
52%33%19%10%5%3%
Inter Milan
79.6
2.2
0.6
42%26%16%9%5%2%
Napoli
82.7
2.5
0.6
27%18%11%7%4%2%
Tottenham
84.2
2.4
0.5
24%18%11%7%4%2%
Dortmund
85.0
2.6
0.6
22%15%10%6%4%2%
Roma3 pts
J
72.3
2.1
0.9
57%25%82%45%22%11%5%2%
Real Madrid
84.5
2.6
0.6
19%14%9%6%3%2%
Atlético Madrid
83.3
2.2
0.5
23%17%11%7%4%2%
Leverkusen
80.2
2.4
0.7
28%19%12%7%4%2%
Getafe3 pts
C
73.2
1.8
0.6
43%30%73%42%21%10%5%2%
Juventus
88.4
2.6
0.4
12%9%7%5%3%2%
Barcelona
89.8
2.9
0.5
11%8%6%4%3%2%
Wolfsburg3 pts
I
71.5
2.0
0.8
61%24%85%45%21%10%4%2%
Bayern Munich
93.9
3.2
0.3
5%4%4%3%2%1%
Ajax
82.8
3.1
1.0
20%13%8%5%3%1%
Eintracht0 pts
F
72.2
2.0
0.8
10%44%55%29%15%7%3%1%
Wolves0 pts
K
71.4
1.9
0.7
29%35%64%34%17%8%3%1%
Young Boys0 pts
G
71.2
2.3
1.1
14%37%51%27%14%7%3%1%
Celtic1 pt
E
67.2
1.9
0.9
42%27%69%34%16%7%3%1%
Benfica
76.9
2.3
0.8
28%16%10%5%3%1%
Basel3 pts
C
68.1
2.2
1.1
38%33%71%35%16%7%3%1%
Lazio0 pts
E
69.7
1.9
0.9
29%27%56%29%14%6%3%1%
Ludogorets3 pts
H
65.4
1.8
0.9
47%29%76%36%16%6%3%1%
Krasnodar0 pts
C
70.1
1.9
0.9
15%26%41%22%11%5%2%1%
Dynamo Kiev3 pts
B
65.5
1.9
1.0
49%31%80%37%15%6%2%<1%
Espanyol1 pt
H
68.3
1.8
0.8
26%27%53%27%12%5%2%<1%
Zenit
73.9
1.9
0.7
32%17%9%4%2%<1%
CSKA Moscow0 pts
H
67.8
1.8
0.8
20%31%51%25%12%5%2%<1%
Gladbach0 pts
J
69.9
2.0
0.9
17%27%44%22%11%5%2%<1%
Valencia
76.7
2.2
0.7
22%12%6%3%1%<1%
Copenhagen3 pts
B
64.0
1.9
1.1
36%34%70%30%12%5%2%<1%
Lyon
72.9
2.1
0.8
31%16%8%4%2%<1%
PSG
89.0
2.8
0.5
4%3%2%2%1%<1%
Sporting0 pts
D
65.9
1.9
1.0
16%35%51%23%10%4%2%<1%
Shakhtar
69.9
2.1
1.0
33%17%8%4%1%<1%
Club Brugge
68.1
1.9
0.9
36%19%9%4%1%<1%
Galatasaray
66.3
2.0
1.1
41%20%8%3%1%<1%
RB Leipzig
83.6
2.3
0.5
8%5%3%2%<1%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb
67.5
2.1
1.1
35%17%7%3%1%<1%
Atalanta
67.0
1.9
1.0
32%17%7%3%1%<1%
Lokomotiv
65.7
1.7
0.9
37%18%7%3%<1%<1%
LASK Linz3 pts
D
60.7
1.7
1.0
22%34%56%22%8%3%<1%<1%
Lille
68.5
1.8
0.8
22%10%5%2%<1%<1%
St Étienne0 pts
I
61.2
1.7
1.0
14%28%42%16%6%2%<1%<1%
Rangers3 pts
G
59.9
1.8
1.2
13%31%44%17%6%2%<1%<1%
Braga3 pts
K
58.8
1.6
1.0
47%28%75%28%9%3%<1%<1%
Astana0 pts
L
58.1
1.7
1.1
6%40%46%16%5%2%<1%<1%
Beşiktaş0 pts
K
59.2
2.0
1.4
14%19%33%12%5%2%<1%<1%
Apoel Nicosia0 pts
A
58.0
1.7
1.1
5%33%39%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Malmö0 pts
B
57.5
1.5
1.0
12%26%38%13%5%1%<1%<1%
Gent3 pts
I
54.9
1.7
1.3
23%37%60%18%5%2%<1%<1%
Red Star
61.8
2.0
1.3
19%8%3%1%<1%<1%
Rennes1 pt
E
59.6
1.6
1.0
17%26%43%16%5%2%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague
61.5
1.9
1.2
26%9%3%1%<1%<1%
AZ Alkmaar1 pt
L
55.3
1.7
1.3
6%32%38%12%4%1%<1%<1%
Standard Liège3 pts
F
57.2
1.7
1.2
11%31%42%14%5%1%<1%<1%
Wolfsberg3 pts
J
54.6
1.7
1.3
23%34%57%17%5%1%<1%<1%
Genk
62.1
1.8
1.1
10%4%2%<1%<1%<1%
Man. City
94.9
3.1
0.2
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Feyenoord0 pts
G
57.8
1.8
1.3
4%11%15%6%2%<1%<1%<1%
Ferencváros1 pt
H
51.2
1.5
1.3
7%14%21%6%2%<1%<1%<1%
Trabzonspor0 pts
C
56.2
1.7
1.3
4%11%15%5%2%<1%<1%<1%
Guimarães0 pts
F
53.7
1.4
1.1
2%9%11%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Qarabağ0 pts
A
49.0
1.3
1.2
2%33%35%8%2%<1%<1%<1%
Partizan1 pt
L
49.1
1.4
1.3
2%17%19%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Slovan3 pts
K
44.3
1.2
1.3
10%19%29%6%1%<1%<1%<1%
Başakşehir0 pts
J
51.9
1.4
1.1
4%14%18%5%2%<1%<1%<1%
CFR Cluj3 pts
E
45.9
1.4
1.4
12%20%32%7%1%<1%<1%<1%
Rosenborg0 pts
D
42.8
1.4
1.5
1%5%6%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Oleksandriya0 pts
I
43.6
1.3
1.4
2%10%13%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lugano0 pts
B
43.5
1.2
1.3
3%9%11%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Dudelange3 pts
A
37.3
1.4
1.8
2%26%28%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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