UEFA Europa League Predictions

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches

Group stage, Matchday 5

12/3	LASK Linz	22%	25%
	Tottenham	53%

12/3	Gent	53%	24%
	Slovan Liberec	23%

12/3	AC Milan	66%	19%
	Celtic	15%

12/3	Sivasspor	13%	22%
	Villarreal	66%

12/3	Zorya Luhansk	14%	22%
	Leicester	64%

12/3	AEK Athens	38%	29%
	Braga	33%

12/3	CSKA Moscow	61%	24%
	Wolfsberg	15%

12/3	Lille	63%	23%
	Sparta Prague	15%

12/3	Feyenoord	39%	25%
	Dinamo Zagreb	37%

12/3	Red Star	32%	22%
	Hoffenheim	46%

12/3	Antwerp	45%	26%
	Ludogorets	29%

12/3	Qarabağ	30%	32%
	Maccabi Tel-Aviv	38%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

Group stage, Matchday 4

11/26	PSV3	42%	30%
	PAOK2	28%

	PSV	PAOK
Adjusted goals	3.2	2.1
Shot-based xG	2.2	0.7
Non-shot xG	1.9	1.1

11/26	Dundalk1	33%	23%
	Rapid Vienna3	44%

	DUND	VIE
Adjusted goals	1.1	3.2
Shot-based xG	2.5	1.0
Non-shot xG	1.3	1.1

11/26	CFR Cluj0	19%	23%
	Roma2	57%

	CLUJ	ROM
Adjusted goals	0.0	2.1
Shot-based xG	0.6	1.7
Non-shot xG	1.4	1.1

11/26	Nice1	38%	26%
	Slavia Prague3	35%

	NCE	SSP
Adjusted goals	1.1	3.0
Shot-based xG	1.5	1.4
Non-shot xG	0.9	0.7

11/26	Leverkusen4	66%	20%
	Hapoel Be'er1	13%

	LEV	HBS
Adjusted goals	3.8	1.1
Shot-based xG	3.0	0.3
Non-shot xG	2.4	0.2

11/26	Granada2	67%	21%
	Omonia Nicosia1	11%

	GRN	OMON
Adjusted goals	2.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.6	0.5
Non-shot xG	2.1	0.4

11/26	Napoli2	89%	10%
	Rijeka0	2%

	NAP	HNK
Adjusted goals	2.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	3.9	0.6
Non-shot xG	2.4	1.3

11/26	AZ Alkmaar0	19%	23%
	Real Sociedad0	58%

	ALK	SOC
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.1	1.4
Non-shot xG	1.5	1.5

11/26	Rangers2	40%	27%
	Benfica2	33%

	RANG	BEN
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.4	1.1
Non-shot xG	0.5	0.9

11/26	Tottenham4	73%	18%
	Ludogorets0	9%

	TOT	LUD
Adjusted goals	4.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	3.4	0.0
Non-shot xG	3.4	0.1

11/26	Standard Liège2	36%	30%
	Lech Poznań1	35%

	STL	LECH
Adjusted goals	2.1	0.8
Shot-based xG	2.0	0.9
Non-shot xG	1.6	0.9

11/26	Wolfsberg0	31%	25%
	Dinamo Zagreb3	44%

	WOL	DIN
Adjusted goals	0.0	2.5
Shot-based xG	0.5	2.3
Non-shot xG	0.9	1.0

		Team rating				chance of finishing group		round-by-round probabilities

team	group	spi	off.	def.	1st	2nd	make round of 32	make round of 16	make qtrs	make semis	make final	win final
Tottenham9 pts	J	84.0	2.4	0.5	81%	16%	97%	71%	46%	29%	17%	9%
Real Sociedad7 pts	F	83.8	2.1	0.4	31%	50%	81%	56%	37%	23%	13%	7%
Napoli9 pts	F	82.2	2.2	0.5	58%	25%	83%	60%	38%	22%	13%	7%
AC Milan7 pts	H	81.1	2.4	0.7	34%	57%	91%	59%	36%	21%	12%	6%
Villarreal10 pts	I	79.8	2.2	0.6	97%	3%	>99%	68%	39%	20%	11%	5%
Leverkusen9 pts	C	79.8	2.2	0.6	64%	36%	>99%	64%	38%	21%	11%	5%
Atlético Madrid		87.5	2.3	0.3			35%	29%	20%	14%	8%	5%
RB Salzburg		80.5	3.0	1.1			63%	43%	26%	15%	8%	4%
RB Leipzig		83.9	2.4	0.6			51%	32%	21%	13%	8%	4%
Roma10 pts	A	77.7	2.3	0.7	86%	14%	✓	65%	36%	18%	9%	4%
Arsenal12 pts	B	78.0	2.1	0.6	>99%	<1%	✓	66%	35%	18%	9%	4%
Leicester10 pts	G	77.8	2.2	0.7	97%	3%	✓	65%	35%	18%	8%	4%
Ajax		81.5	2.8	0.9			49%	34%	21%	12%	7%	4%
Man. United		84.2	2.4	0.5			48%	30%	19%	12%	7%	4%
Lille8 pts	H	76.1	2.0	0.6	62%	32%	94%	57%	30%	15%	7%	3%
Benfica8 pts	D	73.6	2.2	0.9	43%	55%	98%	52%	25%	12%	5%	3%
Atalanta		79.0	2.4	0.8			51%	34%	19%	10%	5%	2%
Olympiacos		72.3	2.0	0.8			93%	57%	28%	13%	6%	2%
Gladbach		79.1	2.4	0.8			43%	29%	16%	8%	4%	2%
Real Madrid		85.3	2.5	0.5			18%	14%	9%	6%	3%	2%
Hoffenheim12 pts	L	72.8	2.3	1.0	91%	9%	✓	55%	25%	11%	4%	2%
Inter Milan		83.8	2.6	0.6			13%	10%	7%	4%	2%	1%
Young Boys7 pts	A	70.2	2.0	0.9	14%	74%	88%	40%	18%	8%	3%	1%
Rangers8 pts	D	68.4	1.9	0.9	56%	42%	98%	48%	20%	8%	3%	1%
Club Brugge		69.5	1.9	0.9			72%	28%	12%	5%	2%	<1%
Slavia Prague9 pts	C	65.2	1.9	1.1	36%	59%	95%	39%	15%	5%	2%	<1%
Dinamo Zagreb8 pts	K	65.0	1.9	1.1	68%	20%	89%	39%	15%	5%	2%	<1%
Shakhtar		71.9	2.3	1.0			26%	15%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
PSV6 pts	E	65.9	2.0	1.1	18%	46%	64%	25%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
Granada10 pts	E	65.2	1.7	0.9	74%	19%	93%	41%	14%	5%	1%	<1%
Dynamo Kiev		64.3	1.9	1.1			79%	27%	10%	3%	1%	<1%
Braga7 pts	G	62.9	1.8	1.0	3%	93%	96%	30%	10%	3%	1%	<1%
CSKA Moscow3 pts	K	67.6	1.7	0.8	6%	21%	27%	12%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
AZ Alkmaar7 pts	F	62.9	1.9	1.2	11%	25%	36%	14%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Lazio		71.7	2.1	0.9			28%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Krasnodar		59.5	1.7	1.1			✓	27%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
PAOK5 pts	E	61.0	1.5	0.8	8%	34%	42%	14%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Red Star9 pts	L	56.3	1.9	1.4	9%	90%	>99%	24%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
PSG		86.9	2.8	0.6			1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Antwerp9 pts	J	54.0	1.6	1.2	18%	75%	93%	22%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Feyenoord5 pts	K	58.1	1.9	1.3	24%	37%	61%	19%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv7 pts	I	55.8	1.5	1.0	2%	82%	84%	20%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Marseille		65.9	1.7	0.8			7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Molde6 pts	B	54.1	1.9	1.5	—	58%	58%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
LASK Linz6 pts	J	60.7	1.7	1.1	<1%	9%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rapid Vienna6 pts	B	55.5	1.9	1.4	<1%	42%	42%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Sparta Prague6 pts	H	56.3	1.8	1.3	4%	11%	15%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ferencváros		53.8	1.6	1.3			21%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
AEK Athens3 pts	G	58.3	1.5	1.0	—	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CFR Cluj4 pts	A	51.3	1.5	1.2	—	12%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Wolfsberg4 pts	K	50.1	1.6	1.4	2%	22%	23%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Sivasspor6 pts	I	43.1	1.3	1.4	<1%	15%	16%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lokomotiv		56.8	1.4	0.9			2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Hapoel Be'er3 pts	C	54.3	1.7	1.3	—	5%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lech Poznań3 pts	D	52.5	1.4	1.1	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Omonia Nicosia1 pt	E	45.2	1.4	1.4	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Standard Liège3 pts	D	49.2	1.3	1.2	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Nice3 pts	C	59.4	1.6	1.0	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Zorya Luhansk3 pts	G	43.8	1.3	1.3	—	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Slovan Liberec3 pts	L	39.2	1.2	1.5	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CSKA Sofia1 pt	A	51.2	1.3	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Celtic1 pt	H	62.9	2.1	1.3	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ludogorets0 pts	J	53.2	1.6	1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gent0 pts	L	49.6	1.6	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Qarabağ0 pts	I	49.0	1.3	1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dundalk0 pts	B	43.1	1.5	1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rijeka0 pts	F	38.3	1.2	1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast from

Season

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Comments

	SPAR	CEL
Adjusted goals	3.4	1.1
Shot-based xG	3.2	0.8
Non-shot xG	1.1	0.9

	CSKA	FEY
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.6	1.1
Non-shot xG	2.9	0.5

	BRAG	LEI
Adjusted goals	3.2	3.2
Shot-based xG	2.1	2.1
Non-shot xG	1.6	1.4

	CSKA	BSCY
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.1
Shot-based xG	0.1	0.7
Non-shot xG	0.1	1.0

	LASK	ANT
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.4
Shot-based xG	0.6	2.3
Non-shot xG	0.5	1.0

12/10	Rijeka	21%	23%
	AZ Alkmaar	56%

12/10	Dundalk	13%	20%
	Arsenal	67%

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

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