Updated May 9, 2021, at 12:52 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated May 9, 2021, at 12:51 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Final
5/26
Villarreal
35%
Man. United
65%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Semifinals, Second leg
5/6
Roma3
20%23%
Man. United2
57%
ROMMAN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG4.21.9
Non-shot xG2.01.1
5/6
Arsenal0
48%27%
Villarreal0
26%
ARSVLR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG1.30.8
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. United
88.3
2.5
0.4
64%
Villarreal
79.7
2.1
0.6
36%
Arsenal
84.1
2.2
0.4
Roma
71.6
2.1
0.9
Dinamo Zagreb
66.2
1.9
1.0
Slavia Prague
65.9
1.9
1.0
Granada
64.7
1.7
0.9
Ajax
81.3
2.7
0.8
Rangers
68.5
2.0
0.9
AC Milan
74.6
2.1
0.8
Tottenham
76.6
2.2
0.8
Molde
55.6
1.9
1.5
Young Boys
69.2
2.0
0.9
Olympiacos
70.5
1.9
0.8
Dynamo Kiev
61.7
1.8
1.1
Shakhtar
70.9
2.2
1.0
Hoffenheim
72.1
2.1
0.9
Leverkusen
76.5
2.1
0.7
Braga
61.4
1.7
1.0
Leicester
78.4
2.1
0.6
Antwerp
51.7
1.7
1.5
Benfica
75.3
2.1
0.7
PSV
68.2
2.1
1.0
Lille
77.1
1.7
0.4
Red Star
56.8
1.8
1.3
Napoli
77.3
2.2
0.7
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
55.6
1.4
1.0
Wolfsberg
50.3
1.7
1.5
Real Sociedad
80.0
2.1
0.5
Club Brugge
67.2
1.9
1.0
RB Salzburg
77.3
2.7
1.1
Krasnodar
54.4
1.7
1.3
LASK Linz
54.6
1.6
1.2
AZ Alkmaar
63.4
1.9
1.1
Slovan Liberec
39.9
1.2
1.4
Rapid Vienna
60.1
1.8
1.2
Hapoel Be'er
53.3
1.6
1.3
Sivasspor
49.7
1.3
1.2
PAOK
60.6
1.5
0.9
Sparta Prague
56.9
1.7
1.2
Zorya Luhansk
44.9
1.3
1.3
CSKA Sofia
52.8
1.3
1.0
CFR Cluj
50.8
1.5
1.3
Feyenoord
58.8
1.8
1.2
Standard Liège
48.7
1.6
1.5
Rijeka
39.6
1.3
1.6
Celtic
59.1
1.8
1.2
Omonia Nicosia
45.3
1.4
1.4
CSKA Moscow
61.3
1.6
0.9
Lech Poznań
49.8
1.3
1.2
Nice
58.0
1.6
1.1
AEK Athens
57.4
1.5
1.0
Qarabağ
47.8
1.3
1.2
Ludogorets
50.2
1.5
1.3
Gent
53.5
1.6
1.2
Dundalk
41.0
1.5
1.7
Forecast from
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