UEFA Europa League Predictions

UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated Nov. 11, 2018, at 5:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches

11/29	Astana	28%	27%
	Dynamo Kiev	45%

11/29	Spartak Moscow	56%	25%
	Rapid Vienna	19%

11/29	Anderlecht	67%	23%
	Spartak Trnava	10%

11/29	RB Salzburg	42%	24%
	RB Leipzig	35%

11/29	AC Milan	88%	10%
	F91 Dudelange	2%

11/29	Rosenborg	23%	28%
	Celtic	49%

11/29	Real Betis	55%	27%
	Olympiacos	19%

11/29	Leverkusen	49%	25%
	Ludogorets	26%

11/29	Zürich	49%	29%
	AEK Larnaca	22%

11/29	Fenerbahçe	43%	28%
	Dinamo Zagreb	29%

11/29	Vorskla	17%	24%
	Arsenal	58%

11/29	Zenit	50%	27%
	Copenhagen	23%

11/29	Bordeaux	57%	30%
	Slavia Prague	14%

11/29	Krasnodar	75%	18%
	Akhisarspor	8%

11/29	BATE Borisov	45%	30%
	MOL Vidi	26%

11/29	Qarabağ	27%	32%
	Sporting	41%

11/29	Standard Liège	23%	24%
	Sevilla	53%

11/29	Apollon Limassol	16%	24%
	Lazio	59%

11/29	Chelsea	60%	25%
	PAOK	15%

11/29	Rangers	35%	23%
	Villarreal	41%

11/29	Eintracht	51%	25%
	Marseille	23%

11/29	Malmö	42%	27%
	Genk	31%

11/29	Jablonec	30%	31%
	Rennes	39%

11/29	Sarpsborg	23%	25%
	Beşiktaş	52%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

11/8	Ludogorets0	63%	28%
	AEK Larnaca0	9%

	LUD	AEK
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.0	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.2	0.8

11/8	Slavia Prague0	32%	30%
	Copenhagen0	38%

	SSP	COP
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.5	0.0
Non-shot xG	0.6	0.1

11/8	Bordeaux1	35%	31%
	Zenit1	34%

	BOR	ZEN
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	2.3	1.2
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.8

11/8	Olympiacos5	84%	14%
	F91 Dudelange1	2%

	OLY	F91
Adjusted goals	5.3	1.1
Shot-based xG	2.9	0.2
Non-shot xG	2.4	0.5

11/8	Vorskla0	49%	30%
	Qarabağ1	21%

	VOR	QBG
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.1
Shot-based xG	0.5	1.5
Non-shot xG	0.8	0.5

11/8	Leverkusen1	63%	21%
	Zürich0	17%

	LEV	ZUR
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.9	0.7
Non-shot xG	1.4	0.8

11/8	Real Betis1	42%	28%
	AC Milan1	30%

	BET	MIL
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.2	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.0	0.7

11/8	Rosenborg2	25%	25%
	RB Salzburg5	50%

	RBK	SAL
Adjusted goals	2.1	5.3
Shot-based xG	1.0	3.4
Non-shot xG	1.2	2.5

11/8	Celtic2	38%	26%
	RB Leipzig1	36%

	CEL	RBL
Adjusted goals	2.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.1	1.5
Non-shot xG	0.6	1.3

11/8	Arsenal0	61%	23%
	Sporting0	16%

	ARS	SCP
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.3	0.3
Non-shot xG	1.7	0.2

11/8	Dinamo Zagreb3	67%	25%
	Spartak Trnava1	8%

	DIN	TRN
Adjusted goals	2.9	1.1
Shot-based xG	2.7	0.3
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.3

11/8	Akhisarspor2	9%	18%
	Sevilla3	73%

	AKB	SEV
Adjusted goals	1.9	3.2
Shot-based xG	1.5	2.6
Non-shot xG	1.0	1.4

		Team rating				chance of finishing group		round-by-round probabilities

team	group	spi	off.	def.	1st	2nd	make round of 32	make round of 16	make qtrs	make semis	make final	win final
Chelsea12 pts	L	87.2	2.5	0.4	>99%	<1%	✓	79%	57%	39%	24%	13%
PSG		90.5	3.0	0.5			39%	33%	26%	19%	13%	8%
Sevilla9 pts	J	82.4	2.5	0.7	61%	33%	94%	65%	41%	24%	13%	7%
Tottenham		84.6	2.4	0.5			71%	54%	35%	22%	13%	7%
Arsenal10 pts	E	80.3	2.4	0.7	97%	3%	✓	68%	40%	22%	11%	6%
Liverpool		90.6	2.7	0.3			29%	25%	18%	14%	9%	5%
RB Salzburg12 pts	B	77.1	2.6	1.0	92%	6%	98%	63%	35%	18%	9%	5%
Valencia		81.4	2.0	0.4			72%	44%	27%	15%	8%	4%
Lazio9 pts	H	77.0	2.2	0.7	22%	78%	✓	57%	31%	15%	7%	4%
RB Leipzig6 pts	B	78.7	2.3	0.7	7%	62%	69%	40%	23%	12%	6%	3%
Real Betis8 pts	F	76.0	1.9	0.6	62%	29%	91%	56%	28%	14%	6%	3%
Dynamo Kiev8 pts	K	73.0	2.1	0.8	65%	33%	98%	54%	28%	13%	6%	3%
AC Milan7 pts	F	76.2	2.0	0.7	27%	51%	78%	45%	24%	12%	6%	3%
Eintracht12 pts	H	73.5	2.1	0.8	78%	22%	✓	58%	28%	12%	5%	2%
Club Brugge		71.6	2.3	1.0			95%	53%	25%	11%	5%	2%
Benfica		72.4	2.0	0.8			93%	45%	22%	10%	4%	2%
Krasnodar9 pts	J	71.4	1.9	0.8	39%	58%	96%	49%	23%	10%	4%	2%
Napoli		84.7	2.4	0.5			19%	15%	10%	6%	3%	2%
Villarreal6 pts	G	73.2	2.0	0.8	58%	27%	85%	47%	22%	10%	4%	2%
CSKA Moscow		71.8	1.7	0.6			87%	41%	20%	9%	4%	2%
Hoffenheim		75.7	2.4	0.9			56%	29%	15%	7%	3%	2%
Leverkusen9 pts	A	70.6	2.1	1.0	74%	26%	✓	51%	22%	9%	4%	2%
Genk7 pts	I	69.3	2.1	1.0	77%	17%	94%	47%	20%	8%	3%	1%
Inter Milan		80.8	2.3	0.6			22%	16%	9%	5%	3%	1%
Sporting7 pts	E	68.2	1.7	0.8	3%	95%	98%	42%	17%	7%	3%	1%
Zenit8 pts	C	67.5	1.7	0.8	74%	17%	92%	44%	18%	7%	3%	1%
Man. United		79.4	2.3	0.7			23%	13%	7%	4%	2%	<1%
Galatasaray		66.7	1.9	1.0			91%	43%	17%	6%	2%	<1%
PAOK3 pts	L	71.3	1.9	0.7	—	28%	28%	15%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
Shakhtar		73.6	2.2	0.9			21%	11%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
Celtic6 pts	B	66.3	1.9	1.0	<1%	32%	33%	14%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
Olympiacos7 pts	F	66.8	1.7	0.8	11%	20%	31%	15%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
PSV		78.9	2.7	1.0			6%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
Real Madrid		91.1	3.0	0.4			2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
Dinamo Zagreb12 pts	D	60.3	1.6	1.0	94%	6%	✓	39%	12%	4%	1%	<1%
Fenerbahçe7 pts	D	59.0	1.7	1.1	6%	92%	98%	27%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
Lyon		72.2	2.1	0.9			22%	10%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
Juventus		90.2	2.6	0.3			2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Beşiktaş4 pts	I	61.8	1.8	1.1	4%	35%	39%	14%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Astana8 pts	K	56.7	1.7	1.2	35%	53%	88%	27%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Malmö5 pts	I	60.7	1.7	1.0	15%	33%	48%	17%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Copenhagen5 pts	C	60.9	1.8	1.2	11%	23%	34%	12%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Red Star		64.3	2.0	1.2			13%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
Zürich9 pts	A	53.3	1.6	1.2	26%	74%	✓	24%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
Lokomotiv		67.5	1.7	0.8			6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rangers5 pts	G	56.3	2.0	1.5	21%	25%	46%	14%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
Rennes3 pts	K	65.9	1.7	0.8	<1%	13%	13%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Spartak Moscow5 pts	G	56.3	1.6	1.1	17%	34%	51%	15%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
AEK Athens		66.5	1.6	0.7			6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Man. City		94.9	3.2	0.2			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Dortmund		81.5	2.5	0.7			2%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ajax		85.2	2.8	0.7			1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Young Boys		74.6	2.7	1.2			3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Bayern Munich		91.2	3.0	0.4			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Standard Liège6 pts	J	58.5	1.7	1.1	<1%	9%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Atlético Madrid		86.2	2.2	0.3			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Viktoria Plzen		60.4	1.9	1.2			10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Roma		79.4	2.4	0.7			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Schalke 04		71.3	1.8	0.7			2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Porto		78.4	2.2	0.7			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Bordeaux1 pt	C	61.3	1.5	0.9	—	5%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
BATE Borisov3 pts	L	49.5	1.5	1.3	—	14%	14%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Slavia Prague7 pts	C	45.4	1.1	1.1	15%	54%	69%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
MOL Vidi6 pts	L	43.3	1.2	1.3	<1%	58%	58%	9%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Monaco		62.2	1.6	0.9			2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Jablonec2 pts	K	53.1	1.4	1.1	—	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rapid Vienna4 pts	G	45.8	1.3	1.3	4%	14%	18%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Sarpsborg5 pts	I	37.1	1.2	1.6	5%	14%	19%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Qarabağ3 pts	E	47.3	1.3	1.2	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Vorskla3 pts	E	47.8	1.2	1.1	—	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Spartak Trnava3 pts	D	34.9	0.9	1.3	—	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ludogorets2 pts	A	64.3	1.7	0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Marseille1 pt	H	70.4	1.9	0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Anderlecht1 pt	D	58.6	1.7	1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
AEK Larnaca2 pts	A	45.8	1.2	1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Apollon Limassol1 pt	H	46.2	1.3	1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Akhisarspor0 pts	J	44.0	1.3	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rosenborg0 pts	B	51.3	1.4	1.2	—	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
F91 Dudelange0 pts	F	36.6	1.4	1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—