Updated Feb. 24, 2021, at 5:00 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Feb. 24, 2021, at 2:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 32, Second leg
2/25
Arsenal
55%
25%
Benfica
19%
2/25
Rangers
63%
23%
Antwerp
14%
2/25
Ajax
43%
27%
Lille
30%
2/25
Napoli
65%
22%
Granada
13%
2/25
Villarreal
42%
23%
RB Salzburg
35%
2/25
Shakhtar
62%
24%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
14%
2/25
Hoffenheim
63%
18%
Molde
19%
2/25
Club Brugge
58%
25%
Dynamo Kiev
18%
2/25
Dinamo Zagreb
46%
25%
Krasnodar
29%
2/25
Man. United
50%
25%
Real Sociedad
25%
2/25
Leicester
66%
22%
Slavia Prague
13%
2/25
Roma
66%
21%
Braga
13%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 32, Second leg
2/24
Tottenham4
80%15%
Wolfsberg0
6%
TOTWOL
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.00.3
Non-shot xG1.90.8
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. United
87.1
2.6
0.5
>99%72%50%34%22%
Roma
79.3
2.2
0.7
97%56%31%16%8%
Arsenal
81.2
2.1
0.5
69%42%25%14%7%
Ajax
78.3
2.7
1.0
81%46%26%14%7%
Villarreal
79.0
2.0
0.5
84%47%25%13%7%
Tottenham
78.1
2.2
0.7
54%28%14%6%
Leicester
79.9
2.1
0.5
70%41%23%12%6%
Leverkusen
79.6
2.3
0.7
59%34%19%10%5%
Shakhtar
72.7
2.3
1.0
97%46%21%9%4%
AC Milan
74.5
2.2
0.8
81%40%19%8%4%
Hoffenheim
74.5
2.3
0.9
78%37%17%8%3%
Olympiacos
71.4
1.9
0.8
85%40%17%7%3%
Club Brugge
72.1
2.0
0.8
72%35%16%7%3%
Rangers
67.8
1.9
0.9
96%39%15%6%2%
Napoli
76.8
2.2
0.7
28%15%8%4%2%
Dinamo Zagreb
67.2
2.0
1.0
86%33%12%5%2%
RB Salzburg
78.4
2.8
1.1
16%10%6%3%2%
Benfica
72.8
2.0
0.8
31%15%7%3%1%
Lille
76.4
1.7
0.5
19%11%6%3%1%
Young Boys
68.7
2.1
1.1
41%17%7%3%1%
Granada
64.9
1.7
0.8
72%24%8%2%<1%
Slavia Prague
65.1
1.9
1.0
30%12%4%1%<1%
PSV
68.2
2.2
1.1
15%6%3%1%<1%
Dynamo Kiev
63.1
1.8
1.1
28%10%3%<1%<1%
Krasnodar
65.5
1.9
1.0
14%6%2%<1%<1%
Real Sociedad
83.2
2.2
0.5
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Molde
56.5
2.1
1.6
22%5%1%<1%<1%
Red Star
56.2
1.8
1.3
19%5%1%<1%<1%
Braga
64.9
1.8
1.0
3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Antwerp
51.2
1.5
1.2
4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
55.5
1.4
1.0
3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Wolfsberg
48.0
1.5
1.4
LASK Linz
62.2
1.8
1.1
AZ Alkmaar
63.1
2.0
1.2
Slovan Liberec
39.9
1.2
1.4
Rapid Vienna
56.5
1.8
1.3
Hapoel Be'er
53.3
1.6
1.3
Sivasspor
44.2
1.2
1.3
PAOK
60.6
1.5
0.9
Sparta Prague
56.9
1.7
1.2
Zorya Luhansk
44.9
1.3
1.3
CSKA Sofia
52.8
1.3
1.0
CFR Cluj
50.8
1.5
1.3
Feyenoord
59.7
1.8
1.2
Standard Liège
48.0
1.5
1.4
Rijeka
39.6
1.3
1.6
Celtic
59.5
1.8
1.2
Omonia Nicosia
45.3
1.4
1.4
CSKA Moscow
64.9
1.7
0.9
Lech Poznań
49.8
1.3
1.2
Nice
55.5
1.5
1.1
AEK Athens
57.4
1.5
1.0
Qarabağ
47.8
1.3
1.2
Ludogorets
50.2
1.5
1.3
Gent
52.1
1.5
1.2
Dundalk
41.0
1.5
1.7
Forecast from
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