Updated Jan. 19, 2019, at 4:46 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated Jan. 19, 2019, at 4:38 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/12
Fenerbahçe
34%
28%
Zenit
37%
2/14
Lazio
36%
26%
Sevilla
37%
2/14
Rapid Vienna
6%
17%
Inter Milan
78%
2/14
Galatasaray
37%
26%
Benfica
37%
2/14
Olympiacos
43%
30%
Dynamo Kiev
27%
2/14
Rennes
30%
30%
Real Betis
40%
2/14
Slavia Prague
23%
29%
Genk
47%
2/14
Krasnodar
44%
26%
Leverkusen
30%
2/14
BATE Borisov
16%
22%
Arsenal
63%
2/14
Club Brugge
34%
24%
RB Salzburg
42%
2/14
Celtic
23%
26%
Valencia
52%
2/14
Malmö
13%
24%
Chelsea
63%
2/14
Zürich
9%
20%
Napoli
72%
2/14
Shakhtar
48%
24%
Eintracht
28%
2/14
Sporting
39%
27%
Villarreal
35%
2/14
Viktoria Plzen
46%
27%
Dinamo Zagreb
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/13
Ludogorets1
62%24%
Zürich1
14%
LUDZUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.40.2
12/13
RB Leipzig1
79%16%
Rosenborg1
5%
RBLRBK
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.1
Non-shot xG2.30.4
12/13
Slavia Prague2
36%33%
Zenit0
31%
SSPZEN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.2
Non-shot xG2.10.5
12/13
Sporting3
66%24%
Vorskla0
10%
SCPVOR
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.60.3
Non-shot xG2.70.6
12/13
Olympiacos3
36%30%
AC Milan1
34%
OLYMIL
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG3.11.4
Non-shot xG1.61.7
12/13
Spartak Trnava1
28%31%
Fenerbahçe0
41%
TRNFEN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG1.00.5
12/13
F91 Dudelange0
11%20%
Real Betis0
69%
F91BET
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.01.5
Non-shot xG0.12.2
12/13
Celtic1
48%26%
RB Salzburg2
26%
CELSAL
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG2.12.3
Non-shot xG1.01.3
12/13
Arsenal1
79%16%
Qarabağ0
5%
ARSQBG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.1
Non-shot xG1.00.2
12/13
Copenhagen0
50%25%
Bordeaux1
24%
COPBOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.20.4
12/13
AEK Larnaca1
24%28%
Leverkusen5
48%
AEKLEV
Adjusted goals1.14.6
Shot-based xG0.72.7
Non-shot xG1.02.0
12/13
Dinamo Zagreb0
51%27%
Anderlecht0
22%
DINRSCA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.4
Non-shot xG1.31.2
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Chelsea
84.9
2.3
0.4
86%59%39%23%13%
Napoli
83.3
2.3
0.5
92%61%38%22%12%
Inter Milan
82.6
2.2
0.5
96%62%38%22%11%
Valencia
81.3
2.1
0.5
74%46%26%14%8%
Arsenal
79.8
2.4
0.7
85%49%27%14%7%
Sevilla
82.0
2.3
0.6
60%38%23%13%7%
RB Salzburg
78.5
2.6
1.0
61%37%20%11%6%
Real Betis
75.7
1.9
0.6
67%35%17%8%4%
Benfica
74.1
2.1
0.8
59%30%15%7%3%
Shakhtar
73.5
2.2
0.9
53%27%13%6%3%
Lazio
76.4
2.1
0.7
40%22%12%6%3%
Genk
70.0
2.1
1.0
77%33%14%6%3%
Eintracht
74.1
2.2
0.8
47%24%11%5%2%
Leverkusen
72.9
2.2
0.9
52%25%12%5%2%
Villarreal
72.2
2.1
0.9
58%27%12%5%2%
Dynamo Kiev
71.2
2.0
0.9
50%25%11%5%2%
Krasnodar
71.0
1.9
0.8
48%23%10%4%2%
Olympiacos
69.6
1.8
0.8
50%23%10%4%2%
Club Brugge
71.5
2.1
0.9
39%19%9%4%2%
Galatasaray
69.7
2.2
1.0
41%19%8%3%1%
Sporting
66.7
1.8
0.9
42%17%6%2%1%
Viktoria Plzen
63.1
2.0
1.2
51%18%6%2%<1%
Rennes
65.4
1.7
0.9
33%13%5%2%<1%
Celtic
65.0
1.9
1.1
26%10%4%2%<1%
Zenit
61.1
1.6
1.0
64%20%6%2%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb
59.3
1.5
1.0
49%15%4%1%<1%
Malmö
61.1
1.7
1.0
14%5%2%<1%<1%
Fenerbahçe
51.7
1.5
1.2
36%8%2%<1%<1%
BATE Borisov
51.4
1.5
1.3
15%4%<1%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague
47.7
1.1
1.0
23%4%<1%<1%<1%
Zürich
49.8
1.4
1.2
8%2%<1%<1%<1%
Rapid Vienna
40.1
1.2
1.4
4%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Standard Liège
62.6
1.7
1.0
AC Milan
74.4
1.9
0.6
Astana
56.8
1.7
1.2
Apollon Limassol
49.0
1.4
1.2
Spartak Trnava
35.9
0.9
1.3
Bordeaux
61.1
1.5
0.9
RB Leipzig
76.2
2.1
0.7
MOL Vidi
44.1
1.2
1.3
Beşiktaş
62.0
1.9
1.1
Rangers
52.2
1.5
1.2
Spartak Moscow
59.6
1.7
1.1
Sarpsborg
39.4
1.2
1.5
Copenhagen
68.7
2.1
1.0
AEK Larnaca
45.2
1.2
1.2
Jablonec
55.1
1.5
1.1
Ludogorets
64.2
1.7
0.9
Anderlecht
51.4
1.6
1.3
PAOK
72.6
1.9
0.7
Qarabağ
46.5
1.3
1.2
Vorskla
46.4
1.2
1.1
Rosenborg
48.9
1.4
1.2
Marseille
66.4
1.8
0.9
F91 Dudelange
37.3
1.4
1.8
Akhisarspor
42.9
1.3
1.4
Forecast from
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