Updated Apr. 21, 2018 at 4:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Europa League

2017-18 season

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 4:44 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/26
Arsenal
39%
25%
Atlético Madrid
36%
4/26
Marseille
49%
25%
RB Salzburg
26%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/12
Marseille5
49%25%
RB Leipzig2
26%
MRSRBL
Adjusted goals4.72.1
Shot-based xG4.00.7
Non-shot xG1.41.0
4/12
CSKA Moscow2
35%25%
Arsenal2
40%
CSKAARS
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.41.4
4/12
Sporting1
24%29%
Atlético Madrid0
47%
SCPATL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.91.2
Non-shot xG2.01.1
4/12
RB Salzburg4
41%26%
Lazio1
33%
SALLAZ
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG1.01.3
See all
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Atlético Madrid
84.7
2.2
0.4
61%41%
Marseille
76.4
2.3
0.8
54%21%
Arsenal
79.8
2.7
0.9
39%21%
RB Salzburg
73.2
2.2
0.9
46%17%
Lazio
77.0
2.5
0.9
RB Leipzig
71.0
2.2
1.0
CSKA Moscow
71.9
1.9
0.7
Sporting
69.6
1.9
0.9
Zenit
67.2
1.6
0.7
Dynamo Kiev
67.3
1.9
0.9
Viktoria Plzen
59.8
1.8
1.1
Lyon
77.5
2.3
0.7
AC Milan
69.0
1.8
0.7
Athletic Bilbao
71.3
1.9
0.7
Lokomotiv
69.6
1.7
0.7
Dortmund
79.6
2.5
0.8
Atalanta
76.9
2.1
0.6
Real Sociedad
78.4
2.3
0.7
Östersund
41.6
1.2
1.4
Villarreal
68.8
1.9
0.9
Astana
51.3
1.6
1.3
Steaua Bucuresti
50.4
1.3
1.1
Braga
68.3
1.9
0.9
Nice
61.4
1.6
0.9
Red Star
57.9
1.9
1.3
Ludogorets
50.3
1.4
1.2
Copenhagen
55.3
1.5
1.1
Partizan
52.1
1.7
1.4
AEK Athens
53.3
1.3
0.9
Spartak Moscow
70.3
2.1
0.9
Napoli
82.0
2.4
0.6
Celtic
51.5
1.5
1.2
Lugano
35.6
1.1
1.6
Sheriff
38.9
1.1
1.4
Slavia Prague
57.7
1.6
1.0
Başakşehir
60.1
1.6
1.0
Rijeka
51.7
1.4
1.1
Zulte Waregem
44.1
1.5
1.6
Young Boys
65.2
2.1
1.2
Zorya Luhansk
44.4
1.2
1.2
Konyaspor
46.5
1.1
1.0
1. FC Köln
59.5
1.8
1.2
Rosenborg
55.7
1.6
1.1
Hertha BSC
67.9
1.7
0.8
BATE Borisov
42.3
1.3
1.4
Guimarães
41.6
1.2
1.4
Vitesse
46.7
1.7
1.6
Skënderbeu
33.8
1.1
1.6
Austria Vienna
39.2
1.3
1.6
Hoffenheim
76.5
2.4
0.9
Hapoel Be'er
48.3
1.4
1.2
Everton
59.9
1.7
1.1
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
46.9
1.3
1.2
Apollon Limassol
37.2
1.1
1.4
Zlín
40.3
1.1
1.3
Vardar
35.4
1.2
1.7
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