UEFA Europa League Predictions

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:50 p.m.

Upcoming matches

Group stage, Matchday 3

11/5	Rijeka	5%	15%
	Napoli	80%

11/5	Omonia Nicosia	18%	25%
	Granada	57%

11/5	Rapid Vienna	55%	23%
	Dundalk	22%

11/5	Roma	64%	21%
	CFR Cluj	15%

11/5	Lech Poznań	45%	30%
	Standard Liège	25%

11/5	Sivasspor	34%	28%
	Qarabağ	38%

11/5	PAOK	41%	30%
	PSV	29%

11/5	Benfica	52%	26%
	Rangers	22%

11/5	Slavia Prague	46%	26%
	Nice	29%

11/5	Real Sociedad	66%	20%
	AZ Alkmaar	13%

11/5	Hapoel Be'er	21%	25%
	Leverkusen	54%

11/5	Ludogorets	19%	24%
	Tottenham	57%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

Group stage, Matchday 2

10/29	CFR Cluj1	29%	27%
	Young Boys1	45%

	CLUJ	BSCY
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	0.7	1.2
Non-shot xG	0.7	1.8

10/29	Real Sociedad0	38%	29%
	Napoli1	33%

	SOC	NAP
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.5	0.9
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.7

10/29	Slavia Prague1	30%	25%
	Leverkusen0	45%

	SSP	LEV
Adjusted goals	0.8	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.9	0.8
Non-shot xG	0.5	0.5

10/29	Nice1	46%	25%
	Hapoel Be'er0	29%

	NCE	HBS
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.6	0.7
Non-shot xG	1.0	0.7

10/29	Benfica3	70%	20%
	Standard Liège0	10%

	BEN	STL
Adjusted goals	3.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.4	0.3
Non-shot xG	1.9	0.2

10/29	Molde1	39%	23%
	Rapid Vienna0	38%

	MOL	VIE
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.8	0.8
Non-shot xG	2.8	1.2

10/29	Granada0	55%	28%
	PAOK0	17%

	GRN	PAOK
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.4	0.6
Non-shot xG	0.6	0.9

10/29	Roma0	63%	23%
	CSKA Sofia0	14%

	ROM	CSKA
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.0	1.1
Non-shot xG	2.3	1.0

10/29	AZ Alkmaar4	67%	20%
	Rijeka1	13%

	ALK	HNK
Adjusted goals	4.2	1.1
Shot-based xG	2.7	1.1
Non-shot xG	0.8	1.1

10/29	Rangers1	53%	28%
	Lech Poznań0	19%

	RANG	LECH
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.5	0.5
Non-shot xG	1.9	0.8

10/29	Arsenal3	77%	16%
	Dundalk0	7%

	ARS	DUND
Adjusted goals	3.2	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.8	0.1
Non-shot xG	3.9	0.2

10/29	Omonia Nicosia1	28%	26%
	PSV2	46%

	OMON	PSV
Adjusted goals	1.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	0.8	2.5
Non-shot xG	0.5	2.9

		Team rating				chance of finishing group		round-by-round probabilities

team	group	spi	off.	def.	1st	2nd	make round of 32	make round of 16	make qtrs	make semis	make final	win final
AC Milan6 pts	H	81.3	2.3	0.6	73%	23%	96%	68%	42%	25%	14%	7%
Arsenal6 pts	B	80.7	2.1	0.5	85%	14%	99%	68%	41%	23%	12%	6%
Napoli3 pts	F	81.3	2.2	0.5	46%	34%	80%	56%	35%	21%	12%	6%
Tottenham3 pts	J	80.5	2.3	0.6	55%	32%	86%	58%	35%	20%	11%	6%
Real Sociedad3 pts	F	81.5	2.1	0.5	32%	38%	70%	48%	30%	18%	10%	6%
Leicester6 pts	G	79.9	2.2	0.6	78%	20%	99%	66%	38%	21%	11%	5%
PSG		89.6	3.0	0.5			27%	20%	15%	11%	8%	5%
RB Leipzig		84.6	2.4	0.5			46%	30%	20%	13%	8%	4%
Leverkusen3 pts	C	78.5	2.1	0.6	56%	26%	82%	52%	30%	16%	8%	4%
RB Salzburg		81.1	2.9	1.0			47%	33%	21%	13%	7%	4%
Villarreal6 pts	I	77.0	2.1	0.7	81%	18%	>99%	61%	33%	17%	8%	4%
Inter Milan		85.1	2.6	0.6			29%	23%	15%	10%	6%	4%
Roma4 pts	A	76.3	2.3	0.8	71%	19%	90%	55%	29%	15%	7%	3%
Real Madrid		88.6	2.6	0.4			19%	16%	11%	8%	5%	3%
Benfica6 pts	D	74.6	2.2	0.9	65%	32%	98%	56%	29%	14%	7%	3%
Atalanta		78.4	2.5	0.8			58%	38%	21%	11%	5%	2%
Lille4 pts	H	74.2	1.9	0.6	24%	51%	75%	41%	22%	11%	5%	2%
Atlético Madrid		86.2	2.3	0.4			18%	14%	9%	6%	4%	2%
Ajax		78.9	2.7	1.0			39%	25%	14%	8%	4%	2%
Olympiacos		74.2	2.0	0.7			67%	42%	22%	10%	5%	2%
Hoffenheim6 pts	L	72.2	2.2	1.0	85%	13%	97%	53%	24%	10%	4%	2%
Granada4 pts	E	70.5	1.8	0.7	64%	26%	90%	47%	21%	9%	4%	1%
Dortmund		87.0	2.4	0.4			12%	8%	5%	4%	2%	1%
Man. United		83.2	2.3	0.5			15%	9%	6%	3%	2%	1%
CSKA Moscow2 pts	K	69.8	1.8	0.8	39%	31%	70%	34%	16%	6%	3%	<1%
Gladbach		79.2	2.3	0.7			22%	14%	8%	4%	2%	<1%
Shakhtar		72.5	2.3	1.0			30%	18%	9%	4%	2%	<1%
Zenit		75.6	2.1	0.7			21%	11%	6%	3%	2%	<1%
Young Boys1 pt	A	67.2	1.9	1.0	11%	36%	48%	22%	10%	4%	2%	<1%
Rangers6 pts	D	64.2	1.7	0.9	34%	59%	93%	37%	15%	5%	2%	<1%
Dynamo Kiev		66.4	1.9	1.0			65%	26%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
Porto		75.1	2.2	0.8			21%	12%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
Dinamo Zagreb2 pts	K	64.3	2.0	1.1	31%	29%	59%	25%	10%	3%	1%	<1%
PSV3 pts	E	64.7	1.9	1.1	21%	40%	61%	25%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
Slavia Prague3 pts	C	64.1	1.9	1.1	21%	29%	51%	22%	9%	3%	1%	<1%
Club Brugge		68.6	2.0	1.0			39%	15%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Rennes		66.4	1.7	0.8			50%	19%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
Chelsea		85.2	2.4	0.5			5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
Braga6 pts	G	62.2	1.7	1.0	21%	70%	91%	32%	11%	4%	1%	<1%
Juventus		81.1	2.4	0.7			8%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
Celtic1 pt	H	65.7	2.1	1.2	3%	23%	26%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Lazio		69.8	2.0	0.9			28%	12%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Sevilla		81.5	2.0	0.4			7%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
AZ Alkmaar6 pts	F	60.2	1.9	1.3	21%	29%	50%	19%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Nice3 pts	C	61.9	1.6	1.0	14%	28%	42%	16%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
PAOK2 pts	E	61.0	1.4	0.8	13%	29%	43%	16%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Lokomotiv		59.6	1.5	0.9			35%	15%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
LASK Linz3 pts	J	59.9	1.8	1.1	14%	27%	41%	15%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Marseille		63.8	1.6	0.9			12%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv6 pts	I	56.2	1.5	1.0	18%	71%	89%	25%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Red Star3 pts	L	57.3	1.9	1.4	11%	57%	68%	19%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
Barcelona		89.9	2.9	0.5			1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Liverpool		88.6	2.8	0.5			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Molde6 pts	B	54.3	1.9	1.5	14%	67%	81%	21%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Antwerp6 pts	J	54.1	1.6	1.2	30%	37%	67%	19%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Krasnodar		58.9	1.6	1.1			38%	11%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CFR Cluj4 pts	A	52.2	1.5	1.2	14%	32%	46%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
AEK Athens0 pts	G	59.4	1.5	0.9	<1%	8%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Feyenoord1 pt	K	57.9	1.9	1.4	9%	14%	23%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rapid Vienna0 pts	B	57.5	1.8	1.3	<1%	14%	15%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Hapoel Be'er3 pts	C	55.4	1.7	1.3	9%	17%	25%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Wolfsberg4 pts	K	51.3	1.7	1.5	22%	26%	48%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
CSKA Sofia1 pt	A	53.4	1.3	1.0	3%	13%	17%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Gent0 pts	L	51.7	1.7	1.4	<1%	14%	15%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Başakşehir		59.1	1.7	1.1			12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ferencváros		54.4	1.6	1.3			25%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ludogorets0 pts	J	56.6	1.6	1.2	2%	4%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Man. City		93.0	2.9	0.3			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lech Poznań0 pts	D	52.7	1.4	1.1	<1%	5%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Qarabağ0 pts	I	51.0	1.4	1.2	<1%	8%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Sparta Prague0 pts	H	52.8	1.6	1.3	<1%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Midtjylland		55.8	1.7	1.2			3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Standard Liège0 pts	D	49.0	1.3	1.2	<1%	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Slovan Liberec3 pts	L	41.4	1.3	1.5	3%	16%	19%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Omonia Nicosia1 pt	E	45.2	1.4	1.4	2%	5%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Sivasspor0 pts	I	42.8	1.3	1.4	<1%	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Dundalk0 pts	B	42.8	1.5	1.6	<1%	5%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Bayern Munich		94.3	3.5	0.4			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Zorya Luhansk0 pts	G	42.3	1.2	1.3	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Rijeka0 pts	F	38.1	1.2	1.5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Forecast from

Season

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:50 p.m.

Comments

	ZOR	BRAG
Adjusted goals	1.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.4	1.0
Non-shot xG	1.6	0.5

	MIL	SPAR
Adjusted goals	3.2	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.8	0.2
Non-shot xG	1.8	0.4

	GENT	HOF
Adjusted goals	1.1	3.6
Shot-based xG	1.9	2.7
Non-shot xG	1.1	2.5

	LASK	LUD
Adjusted goals	4.2	2.9
Shot-based xG	1.4	1.8
Non-shot xG	1.4	0.4

11/5	Arsenal	69%	18%
	Molde	12%

11/26	LASK Linz	49%	25%
	Antwerp	26%

11/26	Molde	19%	22%
	Arsenal	59%

11/26	Braga	24%	26%
	Leicester	50%

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:50 p.m.

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