Updated March 23, 2019, at 2:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated March 17, 2019, at 5:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/11
Arsenal
44%
26%
Napoli
30%
4/11
Villarreal
38%
27%
Valencia
35%
4/11
Benfica
48%
25%
Eintracht
27%
4/11
Slavia Prague
9%
22%
Chelsea
69%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/14
Slavia Prague4
10%22%
Sevilla3
68%
SSPSEV
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.91.8
Non-shot xG2.00.8
3/14
Benfica3
68%22%
Dinamo Zagreb0
10%
BENDIN
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG2.61.0
3/14
Villarreal2
64%23%
Zenit1
13%
VLRZEN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.21.1
3/14
Inter Milan0
49%26%
Eintracht1
25%
INTFRA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.42.4
Non-shot xG0.81.4
3/14
Arsenal3
66%21%
Rennes0
13%
ARSREN
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.00.5
Non-shot xG1.90.7
3/14
Krasnodar1
30%28%
Valencia1
42%
KRAVAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.7
Non-shot xG1.91.5
3/14
Dynamo Kiev0
29%27%
Chelsea5
44%
KIEVCHE
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG1.23.6
Non-shot xG0.62.0
3/14
RB Salzburg3
33%27%
Napoli1
40%
SALNAP
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.10.9
Non-shot xG2.41.2
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Chelsea
85.3
2.4
0.5
✓✓✓94%59%33%
Napoli
82.3
2.2
0.5
✓✓✓52%29%15%
Valencia
81.9
2.1
0.5
✓✓✓63%30%15%
Arsenal
81.3
2.4
0.7
✓✓✓48%27%13%
Benfica
77.9
2.3
0.7
✓✓✓53%22%10%
Eintracht
77.2
2.2
0.7
✓✓✓47%18%8%
Villarreal
73.9
2.0
0.8
✓✓✓37%13%5%
Slavia Prague
53.8
1.3
1.0
✓✓✓6%1%<1%
RB Salzburg
76.7
2.4
0.9
✓✓————
Dinamo Zagreb
60.4
1.5
0.9
✓✓————
Krasnodar
68.6
1.8
0.8
✓✓————
Sevilla
81.4
2.4
0.7
✓✓————
Dynamo Kiev
68.7
2.0
0.9
✓✓————
Zenit
62.7
1.6
0.9
✓✓————
Rennes
65.7
1.7
0.8
✓✓————
Inter Milan
79.7
2.2
0.6
✓✓————
Leverkusen
77.5
2.3
0.8
✓—————
Sporting
68.2
1.8
0.8
✓—————
Real Betis
72.3
1.9
0.7
✓—————
Genk
60.9
1.8
1.1
✓—————
Zürich
46.7
1.3
1.3
✓—————
Olympiacos
78.5
2.3
0.7
✓—————
Rapid Vienna
47.1
1.4
1.3
✓—————
BATE Borisov
50.5
1.5
1.3
✓—————
Celtic
65.3
1.8
0.9
✓—————
Lazio
76.5
2.0
0.6
✓—————
Malmö
60.4
1.7
1.0
✓—————
Fenerbahçe
55.8
1.7
1.2
✓—————
Club Brugge
68.3
2.0
1.0
✓—————
Galatasaray
72.6
2.2
0.9
✓—————
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
✓—————
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
✓—————
Standard Liège
58.2
1.7
1.2
——————
AC Milan
74.7
1.9
0.6
——————
Astana
56.8
1.7
1.2
——————
Apollon Limassol
49.0
1.4
1.2
——————
Spartak Trnava
35.9
0.9
1.3
——————
Bordeaux
59.2
1.5
0.9
——————
RB Leipzig
79.8
2.1
0.5
——————
MOL Vidi
44.1
1.2
1.3
——————
Beşiktaş
64.5
2.2
1.3
——————
Rangers
58.3
1.7
1.2
——————
Spartak Moscow
60.9
1.6
1.0
——————
Sarpsborg
39.4
1.2
1.5
——————
Copenhagen
69.1
2.2
1.1
——————
AEK Larnaca
45.2
1.2
1.2
——————
Jablonec
55.1
1.5
1.1
——————
Ludogorets
64.2
1.7
0.9
——————
Anderlecht
56.7
1.5
1.1
——————
PAOK
77.2
2.2
0.7
——————
Qarabağ
46.5
1.3
1.2
——————
Vorskla
46.4
1.2
1.1
——————
Rosenborg
48.9
1.4
1.2
——————
Marseille
69.6
1.7
0.7
——————
F91 Dudelange
37.3
1.4
1.8
——————
Akhisarspor
39.8
1.2
1.5
——————
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