Updated May 26, 2019, at 8:15 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated May 26, 2019, at 4:37 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Final
5/29
Chelsea
60%
Arsenal
40%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Semifinals, Second leg
5/9
Valencia2
48%24%
Arsenal4
28%
VALARS
Adjusted goals2.14.2
Shot-based xG2.00.8
Non-shot xG2.41.2
5/9
Chelsea1
62%22%
Eintracht1
16%
CHEFRA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.71.6
Non-shot xG2.01.7
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Chelsea
85.1
2.4
0.5
✓✓✓✓✓60%
Arsenal
78.0
2.4
0.8
✓✓✓✓✓40%
Eintracht
71.4
2.0
0.9
✓✓✓✓——
Valencia
80.5
2.3
0.6
✓✓✓✓——
Villarreal
74.9
2.1
0.8
✓✓✓———
Slavia Prague
55.4
1.4
1.0
✓✓✓———
Benfica
76.4
2.4
0.9
✓✓✓———
Napoli
79.9
2.3
0.7
✓✓✓———
RB Salzburg
79.1
2.7
0.9
✓✓————
Dinamo Zagreb
60.4
1.5
0.9
✓✓————
Krasnodar
75.5
2.0
0.7
✓✓————
Sevilla
79.1
2.3
0.7
✓✓————
Dynamo Kiev
68.7
2.0
0.9
✓✓————
Zenit
70.1
2.0
0.9
✓✓————
Rennes
60.1
1.7
1.1
✓✓————
Inter Milan
81.6
2.2
0.5
✓✓————
Leverkusen
81.8
2.5
0.7
✓—————
Sporting
69.9
1.9
0.9
✓—————
Real Betis
74.4
2.0
0.7
✓—————
Genk
69.4
2.0
0.9
✓—————
Zürich
40.6
1.1
1.3
✓—————
Olympiacos
83.3
2.6
0.7
✓—————
Rapid Vienna
47.2
1.6
1.5
✓—————
BATE Borisov
50.5
1.5
1.3
✓—————
Celtic
62.0
1.6
0.9
✓—————
Lazio
72.1
2.1
0.8
✓—————
Malmö
60.8
1.7
1.0
✓—————
Fenerbahçe
57.5
1.6
1.1
✓—————
Club Brugge
69.6
2.1
1.0
✓—————
Galatasaray
72.1
2.2
1.0
✓—————
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
✓—————
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
✓—————
Standard Liège
55.0
1.7
1.3
——————
AC Milan
74.1
1.9
0.6
——————
Astana
56.8
1.7
1.2
——————
Apollon Limassol
49.0
1.4
1.2
——————
Spartak Trnava
35.9
0.9
1.3
——————
Bordeaux
56.9
1.4
0.9
——————
RB Leipzig
79.8
2.2
0.6
——————
MOL Vidi
44.1
1.2
1.3
——————
Beşiktaş
67.4
2.3
1.3
——————
Rangers
64.2
1.9
1.1
——————
Spartak Moscow
56.6
1.5
1.0
——————
Sarpsborg
29.3
0.9
1.6
——————
Copenhagen
63.7
2.1
1.3
——————
AEK Larnaca
45.2
1.2
1.2
——————
Jablonec
55.1
1.5
1.1
——————
Ludogorets
64.2
1.7
0.9
——————
Anderlecht
51.4
1.4
1.1
——————
PAOK
79.2
2.3
0.7
——————
Qarabağ
46.5
1.3
1.2
——————
Vorskla
46.4
1.2
1.1
——————
Rosenborg
39.8
1.2
1.4
——————
Marseille
68.2
1.8
0.8
——————
F91 Dudelange
37.3
1.4
1.8
——————
Akhisarspor
37.9
1.1
1.4
——————
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