Updated Jan. 22, 2018 at 4:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Europa League

2017-18 season

Updated Jan. 22, 2018 at 4:56 PM

Upcoming matches
2/13
Red Star
29%
27%
CSKA Moscow
44%
2/15
Astana
24%
27%
Sporting
49%
2/15
Dortmund
57%
22%
Atalanta
21%
2/15
Spartak Moscow
41%
26%
Athletic Bilbao
33%
2/15
Marseille
65%
23%
Braga
13%
2/15
Nice
37%
31%
Lokomotiv
32%
2/15
Real Sociedad
53%
25%
RB Salzburg
22%
2/15
Östersunds FK
17%
21%
Arsenal
62%
2/15
Ludogorets
29%
30%
AC Milan
42%
2/15
Copenhagen
13%
28%
Atlético Madrid
58%
2/15
Celtic
29%
28%
Zenit
43%
2/15
Napoli
63%
22%
RB Leipzig
16%
2/15
AEK Athens
28%
31%
Dynamo Kiev
41%
2/15
Steaua Bucuresti
23%
25%
Lazio
53%
2/15
Lyon
53%
25%
Villarreal
22%
2/15
Partizan
38%
25%
Viktoria Plzen
37%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
12/7
Hapoel Be'er0
38%28%
Viktoria Plzen2
34%
HBSVPLZ
Adjusted goals0.01.8
Shot-based xG0.52.4
Non-shot xG1.12.0
12/7
Red Star1
47%24%
1. FC Köln0
29%
REDCOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG0.71.3
12/7
Real Sociedad1
52%24%
Zenit3
23%
SOCZEN
Adjusted goals1.12.8
Shot-based xG2.91.0
Non-shot xG2.90.9
12/7
Vitesse1
35%27%
Nice0
38%
VITNCE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.10.4
Non-shot xG1.80.8
12/7
Marseille0
49%26%
RB Salzburg0
24%
MRSSAL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG1.10.7
12/7
Guimarães1
55%28%
Konyaspor1
17%
GUIKNY
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.20.7
12/7
Vardar1
25%28%
Rosenborg1
47%
VARRBK
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.8
Non-shot xG1.41.3
12/7
Steaua Bucuresti1
60%25%
Lugano2
15%
FCSBFCL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.50.4
Non-shot xG1.30.6
12/7
Zorya Luhansk0
20%27%
Athletic Bilbao2
54%
ZORBIL
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG0.51.3
12/7
Hertha BSC1
60%24%
Östersunds FK1
16%
HEROFK
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.50.4
12/7
Arsenal6
87%11%
BATE Borisov0
2%
ARSBATE
Adjusted goals6.20.0
Shot-based xG3.20.5
Non-shot xG3.20.8
12/7
Zulte Waregem3
15%19%
Lazio2
66%
ZULLAZ
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG0.92.3
Non-shot xG1.21.3
See all
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Atlético Madrid
83.0
2.0
0.3
93%66%43%26%14%
Napoli
84.5
2.4
0.5
72%54%37%24%13%
Arsenal
82.7
2.8
0.8
91%61%38%22%12%
Dortmund
82.4
2.7
0.8
65%43%27%16%8%
Marseille
76.3
2.1
0.6
76%44%24%12%6%
Lazio
76.6
2.4
0.9
84%47%24%12%6%
Lyon
76.5
2.2
0.7
59%35%19%10%5%
Real Sociedad
75.2
2.3
0.8
59%32%16%8%4%
Athletic Bilbao
74.8
2.0
0.7
56%31%16%8%4%
Sporting
70.9
2.0
0.8
81%39%17%7%3%
CSKA Moscow
71.0
1.8
0.7
74%36%16%7%3%
Zenit
70.5
1.8
0.7
74%36%16%7%3%
Dynamo Kiev
70.2
2.0
0.9
75%35%15%6%3%
Atalanta
73.1
2.0
0.8
35%19%10%5%2%
Lokomotiv
68.2
1.7
0.7
62%28%12%5%2%
Villarreal
71.3
1.9
0.8
41%20%9%4%2%
RB Leipzig
73.4
2.2
0.9
28%15%8%4%2%
AC Milan
66.8
1.8
0.9
74%30%12%4%2%
Spartak Moscow
70.6
2.1
1.0
44%21%9%4%2%
RB Salzburg
67.3
1.8
0.8
41%18%8%3%1%
Viktoria Plzen
60.7
1.8
1.2
62%20%6%2%<1%
Nice
60.5
1.5
0.9
38%13%4%1%<1%
Braga
59.9
1.7
1.0
24%8%3%<1%<1%
Red Star
58.0
1.9
1.3
26%8%2%<1%<1%
Celtic
57.4
1.8
1.3
26%8%2%<1%<1%
Partizan
53.1
1.8
1.5
38%8%2%<1%<1%
AEK Athens
51.8
1.2
1.0
25%6%1%<1%<1%
Ludogorets
51.4
1.4
1.2
26%6%1%<1%<1%
Copenhagen
55.1
1.5
1.1
7%2%<1%<1%<1%
Steaua Bucuresti
50.8
1.3
1.1
16%4%<1%<1%<1%
Astana
50.4
1.5
1.3
19%4%<1%<1%<1%
Östersunds FK
51.0
1.4
1.2
9%2%<1%<1%<1%
Lugano
40.6
1.2
1.4
Sheriff
38.9
1.1
1.4
Slavia Prague
57.7
1.6
1.0
Başakşehir
64.7
1.8
0.9
Rijeka
51.7
1.4
1.1
Zulte Waregem
44.1
1.5
1.6
Young Boys
60.8
1.9
1.2
Zorya Luhansk
44.4
1.2
1.2
Konyaspor
39.7
1.0
1.2
1. FC Köln
59.7
1.7
1.0
Rosenborg
52.2
1.5
1.2
Hertha BSC
65.0
1.8
0.9
BATE Borisov
42.3
1.3
1.4
Guimarães
47.0
1.4
1.3
Vitesse
47.2
1.4
1.3
Skënderbeu
33.8
1.1
1.6
Austria Vienna
43.2
1.4
1.5
Hoffenheim
67.8
1.9
0.9
Hapoel Be'er
48.3
1.4
1.2
Everton
56.5
1.6
1.1
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
46.9
1.3
1.2
Apollon Limassol
37.2
1.1
1.4
Zlín
40.3
1.1
1.3
Vardar
35.4
1.2
1.7
Forecast from

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