| Team rating | chance of finishing group | round-by-round probabilities | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | group | spi | off. | def. | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | make knockout phase | make round of 16 | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |
 Arsenal3 pts | A | 81.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 65% | 26% | 9% | 91% | 81% | 54% | 34% | 20% | 11% | |
 Ajax | 85.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 41% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 7% | |||||
 Liverpool | 89.0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 25% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | |||||
 Barcelona | 88.7 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 28% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 9% | 6% | |||||
 PSV1 pt | A | 76.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 28% | 47% | 22% | 75% | 54% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | |
 Inter Milan | 79.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 68% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 5% | |||||
 Man. United3 pts | E | 75.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 28% | 63% | 8% | 91% | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | |
 Real Sociedad6 pts | E | 73.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 69% | 26% | 6% | 94% | 81% | 41% | 20% | 9% | 4% | |
 SC Freiburg6 pts | G | 72.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 83% | 13% | 3% | 96% | 89% | 42% | 19% | 9% | 4% | |
 Roma3 pts | C | 73.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 36% | 48% | 15% | 84% | 59% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | |
 Rennes4 pts | B | 72.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 52% | 39% | 7% | 91% | 70% | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | |
 Feyenoord3 pts | F | 72.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 45% | 31% | 16% | 76% | 59% | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | |
 Chelsea | 81.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 33% | 25% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | |||||
 Real Betis6 pts | C | 69.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 61% | 33% | 6% | 94% | 74% | 34% | 14% | 6% | 2% | |
 Braga6 pts | D | 68.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 72% | 21% | 7% | 93% | 80% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 2% | |
 Monaco3 pts | H | 70.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 36% | 36% | 21% | 72% | 51% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | |
 Napoli | 79.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 29% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 2% | |||||
 Tottenham | 81.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 22% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 2% | |||||
 RB Salzburg | 80.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 23% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 2% | |||||
 Lazio3 pts | F | 69.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 35% | 32% | 20% | 67% | 49% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | |
 Fenerbahçe4 pts | B | 67.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 43% | 41% | 13% | 84% | 59% | 26% | 11% | 5% | 2% | |
 Porto | 77.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 23% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | |||||
 Atlético Madrid | 79.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 26% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | |||||
 RB Leipzig | 76.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 28% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | |||||
 Union Berlin0 pts | D | 71.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 6% | 34% | 55% | 40% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
 AC Milan | 79.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 17% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | |||||
 Celtic | 73.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |||||
 Leverkusen | 74.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |||||
 Dortmund | 80.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 15% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Sevilla | 68.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 63% | 33% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Juventus | 66.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 76% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Eintracht | 69.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 47% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Marseille | 71.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 22% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Bayern Munich | 92.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Ferencváros6 pts | H | 55.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 48% | 32% | 14% | 80% | 56% | 15% | 4% | 1% | <1% | |
 Sporting | 76.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Club Brugge | 69.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Dinamo Zagreb | 63.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Benfica | 79.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 PSG | 90.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Shakhtar | 60.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Trabzonspor3 pts | H | 55.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 12% | 22% | 41% | 34% | 18% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
 Rangers | 66.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Real Madrid | 87.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Nantes3 pts | G | 56.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 12% | 39% | 34% | 50% | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
 Midtjylland3 pts | F | 54.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 12% | 19% | 32% | 30% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Bodø/Glimt4 pts | A | 53.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6% | 26% | 62% | 32% | 13% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Red Star0 pts | H | 56.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4% | 10% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Olympiacos0 pts | G | 55.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1% | 19% | 31% | 20% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Union SG6 pts | D | 50.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 22% | 45% | 32% | 67% | 31% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
 Sturm Graz3 pts | F | 53.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 9% | 18% | 32% | 27% | 14% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Copenhagen | 53.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Dynamo Kiev0 pts | B | 53.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2% | 6% | 25% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Sheriff3 pts | E | 53.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3% | 11% | 80% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Man. City | 93.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Maccabi Haifa | 46.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 17% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Viktoria Plzen | 54.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Qarabağ3 pts | G | 45.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4% | 29% | 33% | 33% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Ludogorets3 pts | C | 41.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3% | 18% | 65% | 21% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 AEK Larnaca3 pts | B | 43.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3% | 14% | 55% | 17% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Malmö0 pts | D | 37.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | <1% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Zürich0 pts | A | 39.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Omonia Nicosia0 pts | E | 38.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | <1% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 HJK Helsinki0 pts | C | 27.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | <1% | <1% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
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