Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2020-21

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 5
12/3
LASK Linz
22%
25%
Tottenham
53%
12/3
Gent
53%
24%
Slovan Liberec
23%
12/3
AC Milan
66%
19%
Celtic
15%
12/3
Sivasspor
13%
22%
Villarreal
66%
12/3
Zorya Luhansk
14%
22%
Leicester
64%
12/3
AEK Athens
38%
29%
Braga
33%
12/3
CSKA Moscow
61%
24%
Wolfsberg
15%
12/3
Lille
63%
23%
Sparta Prague
15%
12/3
Feyenoord
39%
25%
Dinamo Zagreb
37%
12/3
Red Star
32%
22%
Hoffenheim
46%
12/3
Antwerp
45%
26%
Ludogorets
29%
12/3
Qarabağ
30%
32%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
38%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 4
11/26
PSV3
42%30%
PAOK2
28%
PSVPAOK
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.20.7
Non-shot xG1.91.1
11/26
Dundalk1
33%23%
Rapid Vienna3
44%
DUNDVIE
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG2.51.0
Non-shot xG1.31.1
11/26
CFR Cluj0
19%23%
Roma2
57%
CLUJROM
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.61.7
Non-shot xG1.41.1
11/26
Nice1
38%26%
Slavia Prague3
35%
NCESSP
Adjusted goals1.13.0
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG0.90.7
11/26
Leverkusen4
66%20%
Hapoel Be'er1
13%
LEVHBS
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG3.00.3
Non-shot xG2.40.2
11/26
Granada2
67%21%
Omonia Nicosia1
11%
GRNOMON
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.5
Non-shot xG2.10.4
11/26
Napoli2
89%10%
Rijeka0
2%
NAPHNK
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG3.90.6
Non-shot xG2.41.3
11/26
AZ Alkmaar0
19%23%
Real Sociedad0
58%
ALKSOC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG1.51.5
11/26
Rangers2
40%27%
Benfica2
33%
RANGBEN
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.41.1
Non-shot xG0.50.9
11/26
Tottenham4
73%18%
Ludogorets0
9%
TOTLUD
Adjusted goals4.10.0
Shot-based xG3.40.0
Non-shot xG3.40.1
11/26
Standard Liège2
36%30%
Lech Poznań1
35%
STLLECH
Adjusted goals2.10.8
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG1.60.9
11/26
Wolfsberg0
31%25%
Dinamo Zagreb3
44%
WOLDIN
Adjusted goals0.02.5
Shot-based xG0.52.3
Non-shot xG0.91.0
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2ndmake round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Tottenham9 pts
J
84.0
2.4
0.5
81%16%97%71%46%29%17%9%
Real Sociedad7 pts
F
83.8
2.1
0.4
31%50%81%56%37%23%13%7%
Napoli9 pts
F
82.2
2.2
0.5
58%25%83%60%38%22%13%7%
AC Milan7 pts
H
81.1
2.4
0.7
34%57%91%59%36%21%12%6%
Villarreal10 pts
I
79.8
2.2
0.6
97%3%>99%68%39%20%11%5%
Leverkusen9 pts
C
79.8
2.2
0.6
64%36%>99%64%38%21%11%5%
Atlético Madrid
87.5
2.3
0.3
35%29%20%14%8%5%
RB Salzburg
80.5
3.0
1.1
63%43%26%15%8%4%
RB Leipzig
83.9
2.4
0.6
51%32%21%13%8%4%
Roma10 pts
A
77.7
2.3
0.7
86%14%65%36%18%9%4%
Arsenal12 pts
B
78.0
2.1
0.6
>99%<1%66%35%18%9%4%
Leicester10 pts
G
77.8
2.2
0.7
97%3%65%35%18%8%4%
Ajax
81.5
2.8
0.9
49%34%21%12%7%4%
Man. United
84.2
2.4
0.5
48%30%19%12%7%4%
Lille8 pts
H
76.1
2.0
0.6
62%32%94%57%30%15%7%3%
Benfica8 pts
D
73.6
2.2
0.9
43%55%98%52%25%12%5%3%
Atalanta
79.0
2.4
0.8
51%34%19%10%5%2%
Olympiacos
72.3
2.0
0.8
93%57%28%13%6%2%
Gladbach
79.1
2.4
0.8
43%29%16%8%4%2%
Real Madrid
85.3
2.5
0.5
18%14%9%6%3%2%
Hoffenheim12 pts
L
72.8
2.3
1.0
91%9%55%25%11%4%2%
Inter Milan
83.8
2.6
0.6
13%10%7%4%2%1%
Young Boys7 pts
A
70.2
2.0
0.9
14%74%88%40%18%8%3%1%
Rangers8 pts
D
68.4
1.9
0.9
56%42%98%48%20%8%3%1%
Club Brugge
69.5
1.9
0.9
72%28%12%5%2%<1%
Slavia Prague9 pts
C
65.2
1.9
1.1
36%59%95%39%15%5%2%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb8 pts
K
65.0
1.9
1.1
68%20%89%39%15%5%2%<1%
Shakhtar
71.9
2.3
1.0
26%15%7%3%1%<1%
PSV6 pts
E
65.9
2.0
1.1
18%46%64%25%10%4%1%<1%
Granada10 pts
E
65.2
1.7
0.9
74%19%93%41%14%5%1%<1%
Dynamo Kiev
64.3
1.9
1.1
79%27%10%3%1%<1%
Braga7 pts
G
62.9
1.8
1.0
3%93%96%30%10%3%1%<1%
CSKA Moscow3 pts
K
67.6
1.7
0.8
6%21%27%12%5%2%<1%<1%
AZ Alkmaar7 pts
F
62.9
1.9
1.2
11%25%36%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Lazio
71.7
2.1
0.9
28%11%5%2%<1%<1%
Krasnodar
59.5
1.7
1.1
27%8%2%<1%<1%
PAOK5 pts
E
61.0
1.5
0.8
8%34%42%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Red Star9 pts
L
56.3
1.9
1.4
9%90%>99%24%6%2%<1%<1%
PSG
86.9
2.8
0.6
1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Antwerp9 pts
J
54.0
1.6
1.2
18%75%93%22%5%1%<1%<1%
Feyenoord5 pts
K
58.1
1.9
1.3
24%37%61%19%5%1%<1%<1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv7 pts
I
55.8
1.5
1.0
2%82%84%20%5%1%<1%<1%
Marseille
65.9
1.7
0.8
7%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Molde6 pts
B
54.1
1.9
1.5
58%58%13%3%<1%<1%<1%
LASK Linz6 pts
J
60.7
1.7
1.1
<1%9%10%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Rapid Vienna6 pts
B
55.5
1.9
1.4
<1%42%42%10%3%<1%<1%<1%
Sparta Prague6 pts
H
56.3
1.8
1.3
4%11%15%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Ferencváros
53.8
1.6
1.3
21%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
AEK Athens3 pts
G
58.3
1.5
1.0
2%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
CFR Cluj4 pts
A
51.3
1.5
1.2
12%12%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Wolfsberg4 pts
K
50.1
1.6
1.4
2%22%23%5%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Sivasspor6 pts
I
43.1
1.3
1.4
<1%15%16%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lokomotiv
56.8
1.4
0.9
2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Hapoel Be'er3 pts
C
54.3
1.7
1.3
5%5%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Lech Poznań3 pts
D
52.5
1.4
1.1
<1%1%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Omonia Nicosia1 pt
E
45.2
1.4
1.4
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Standard Liège3 pts
D
49.2
1.3
1.2
<1%1%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Nice3 pts
C
59.4
1.6
1.0
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Zorya Luhansk3 pts
G
43.8
1.3
1.3
2%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Slovan Liberec3 pts
L
39.2
1.2
1.5
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
CSKA Sofia1 pt
A
51.2
1.3
1.0
Celtic1 pt
H
62.9
2.1
1.3
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ludogorets0 pts
J
53.2
1.6
1.3
Gent0 pts
L
49.6
1.6
1.4
Qarabağ0 pts
I
49.0
1.3
1.2
Dundalk0 pts
B
43.1
1.5
1.7
Rijeka0 pts
F
38.3
1.2
1.6
Forecast from
Season

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