Updated April 24, 2019, at 4:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2018-19 season

Updated April 24, 2019, at 4:42 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Semifinals, First leg
5/2
Arsenal
44%
26%
Valencia
30%
5/2
Eintracht
34%
26%
Chelsea
40%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Quarterfinals, Second leg
4/18
Eintracht2
43%25%
Benfica0
32%
FRABEN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.50.9
4/18
Valencia2
58%23%
Villarreal0
19%
VALVLR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG0.61.7
4/18
Napoli0
43%26%
Arsenal1
31%
NAPARS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG2.00.9
4/18
Chelsea4
82%16%
Slavia Prague3
3%
CHESSP
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.60.6
Non-shot xG1.21.1
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Chelsea
84.5
2.4
0.5
66%36%
Valencia
82.2
2.2
0.5
52%25%
Arsenal
80.2
2.3
0.7
48%23%
Eintracht
76.0
2.1
0.7
34%15%
Villarreal
74.4
2.1
0.8
Slavia Prague
55.4
1.4
1.0
Benfica
77.1
2.3
0.8
Napoli
80.0
2.2
0.6
RB Salzburg
78.1
2.6
0.9
Dinamo Zagreb
60.4
1.5
0.9
Krasnodar
69.0
1.8
0.8
Sevilla
80.3
2.3
0.7
Dynamo Kiev
68.7
2.0
0.9
Zenit
70.5
1.9
0.8
Rennes
62.1
1.7
1.0
Inter Milan
81.4
2.2
0.5
Leverkusen
78.3
2.3
0.8
Sporting
69.0
1.8
0.8
Real Betis
72.2
2.0
0.8
Genk
67.0
2.0
1.0
Zürich
39.4
1.1
1.4
Olympiacos
82.0
2.6
0.7
Rapid Vienna
52.9
1.6
1.3
BATE Borisov
50.5
1.5
1.3
Celtic
63.2
1.6
0.8
Lazio
75.3
2.0
0.7
Malmö
58.7
1.7
1.1
Fenerbahçe
54.4
1.6
1.2
Club Brugge
71.4
2.1
0.9
Galatasaray
73.5
2.2
0.9
Viktoria Plzen
62.3
2.0
1.2
Shakhtar
71.8
2.2
0.9
Standard Liège
55.6
1.7
1.3
AC Milan
74.1
1.9
0.6
Astana
56.8
1.7
1.2
Apollon Limassol
49.0
1.4
1.2
Spartak Trnava
35.9
0.9
1.3
Bordeaux
58.6
1.4
0.9
RB Leipzig
81.6
2.2
0.5
MOL Vidi
44.1
1.2
1.3
Beşiktaş
70.5
2.5
1.2
Rangers
63.0
1.9
1.1
Spartak Moscow
60.4
1.6
1.0
Sarpsborg
37.1
1.1
1.5
Copenhagen
72.7
2.1
0.9
AEK Larnaca
45.2
1.2
1.2
Jablonec
55.1
1.5
1.1
Ludogorets
64.2
1.7
0.9
Anderlecht
51.0
1.4
1.2
PAOK
78.4
2.3
0.7
Qarabağ
46.5
1.3
1.2
Vorskla
46.4
1.2
1.1
Rosenborg
45.2
1.3
1.3
Marseille
68.6
1.8
0.8
F91 Dudelange
37.3
1.4
1.8
Akhisarspor
39.0
1.2
1.5
Forecast from
Season

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