Updated July 12, 2020, at 2:34 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated July 12, 2020, at 1:53 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Round of 16, Second leg
8/5
Copenhagen
26%
29%
Başakşehir
45%
8/5
Shakhtar
38%
25%
Wolfsburg
37%
8/5
Man. United
80%
15%
LASK Linz
6%
8/5
Inter Milan
57%
Getafe
43%
8/6
Leverkusen
66%
21%
Rangers
13%
8/6
Sevilla
60%
Roma
40%
8/6
Wolves
51%
29%
Olympiacos
20%
8/6
Basel
32%
24%
Eintracht
44%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Round of 16, First leg
3/12
Olympiacos1
35%29%
Wolves1
35%
OLYWOL
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.51.0
3/12
Wolfsburg1
50%24%
Shakhtar2
26%
WLFSHK
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.8
Non-shot xG1.90.6
3/12
Rangers1
16%23%
Leverkusen3
62%
RANGLEV
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG0.91.1
3/12
Başakşehir1
55%25%
Copenhagen0
20%
IBBCOP
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.2
Non-shot xG0.50.5
3/12
Eintracht0
53%23%
Basel3
24%
FRABAS
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.81.6
Non-shot xG1.70.8
3/12
LASK Linz0
25%26%
Man. United5
50%
LASKMAN
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG0.43.0
Non-shot xG1.12.3
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. United
88.9
2.5
0.3
>99%83%54%36%
Leverkusen
80.6
2.4
0.7
>99%51%32%15%
Wolves
82.2
1.9
0.3
70%38%16%9%
Inter Milan
80.3
2.4
0.7
57%29%18%8%
Sevilla
81.1
2.1
0.5
60%31%13%8%
Shakhtar
70.9
2.2
1.0
73%42%16%5%
Getafe
77.7
1.7
0.4
43%19%12%5%
Basel
64.7
1.9
1.1
90%37%11%3%
Wolfsburg
74.9
2.0
0.7
27%17%7%3%
Roma
73.2
2.1
0.9
40%17%6%3%
Olympiacos
74.6
2.0
0.7
30%14%5%3%
Başakşehir
65.3
1.7
0.9
87%16%5%2%
Eintracht
71.9
2.2
0.9
10%5%2%<1%
Copenhagen
54.3
1.5
1.1
13%1%<1%<1%
Rangers
58.3
1.6
1.1
<1%<1%<1%<1%
LASK Linz
63.2
1.9
1.1
<1%<1%<1%<1%
Braga
64.7
1.9
1.1
Celtic
70.7
2.2
1.0
Gent
59.7
1.8
1.2
Sporting
62.2
1.6
0.9
CFR Cluj
50.8
1.5
1.3
Espanyol
66.6
1.7
0.8
Malmö
54.7
1.5
1.1
Arsenal
78.8
2.1
0.6
Porto
74.3
1.9
0.7
Apoel Nicosia
56.1
1.6
1.1
AZ Alkmaar
66.9
1.9
1.0
Ludogorets
58.7
1.6
1.1
Club Brugge
68.4
1.8
0.8
Ajax
76.5
2.5
1.0
RB Salzburg
81.4
3.0
1.1
Benfica
70.4
2.0
0.9
Krasnodar
64.2
1.6
0.8
Standard Liège
50.5
1.4
1.2
Young Boys
65.2
2.2
1.2
Gladbach
78.9
2.3
0.7
Partizan
52.7
1.5
1.2
PSV
64.5
1.9
1.0
Dynamo Kiev
67.0
2.0
1.0
Ferencváros
54.1
1.6
1.2
Lazio
71.3
2.0
0.9
CSKA Moscow
65.0
1.6
0.8
Wolfsberg
58.4
1.8
1.2
Qarabağ
52.3
1.4
1.2
Guimarães
60.4
1.6
0.9
Feyenoord
59.3
1.9
1.3
Rennes
66.6
1.6
0.7
St Étienne
56.2
1.4
1.0
Slovan
44.6
1.3
1.3
Dudelange
35.1
1.4
1.9
Astana
50.7
1.5
1.3
Lugano
43.5
1.2
1.3
Oleksandriya
45.7
1.3
1.3
Beşiktaş
56.1
1.8
1.3
Trabzonspor
62.8
2.0
1.2
Rosenborg
49.4
1.5
1.4
Forecast from
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