Updated Oct. 15, 2019, at 10:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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UEFA Europa League

2019-20 season

Updated Oct. 6, 2019, at 5:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage, Matchday 3
10/24
Gent
30%
26%
Wolfsburg
43%
10/24
AZ Alkmaar
51%
26%
Astana
23%
10/24
Roma
45%
25%
Gladbach
31%
10/24
Slovan
18%
27%
Wolves
55%
10/24
Young Boys
68%
17%
Feyenoord
15%
10/24
Beşiktaş
44%
25%
Braga
31%
10/24
Başakşehir
45%
27%
Wolfsberg
29%
10/24
Porto
61%
23%
Rangers
16%
10/24
CSKA Moscow
62%
24%
Ferencváros
14%
10/24
St Étienne
64%
23%
Oleksandriya
12%
10/24
Partizan
19%
26%
Man. United
55%
10/24
Qarabağ
38%
31%
Apoel Nicosia
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Group stage, Matchday 2
10/3
Lugano0
23%26%
Dynamo Kiev0
51%
FCLKIEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG0.92.0
10/3
Sevilla1
63%23%
Apoel Nicosia0
14%
SEVNIC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.1
Non-shot xG2.10.4
10/3
Krasnodar1
42%28%
Getafe2
30%
KRAGET
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.02.4
Non-shot xG1.01.3
10/3
Guimarães0
26%27%
Eintracht1
47%
GUIFRA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG1.50.6
10/3
Sporting2
47%27%
LASK Linz1
26%
SCPLASK
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.92.0
Non-shot xG0.91.9
10/3
Trabzonspor2
31%23%
Basel2
46%
TRABAS
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.00.5
Non-shot xG0.91.0
10/3
Malmö1
46%29%
Copenhagen1
25%
MALCOP
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.80.1
Non-shot xG1.60.1
10/3
Rosenborg1
16%21%
PSV4
63%
RBKPSV
Adjusted goals1.14.0
Shot-based xG1.82.3
Non-shot xG1.91.0
10/3
Dudelange1
28%27%
Qarabağ4
44%
F91QBG
Adjusted goals1.14.0
Shot-based xG1.54.1
Non-shot xG1.11.6
10/3
Lazio2
59%25%
Rennes1
16%
LAZREN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG1.20.8
10/3
Celtic2
68%21%
CFR Cluj0
11%
CELCLUJ
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.5
Non-shot xG1.50.5
10/3
Arsenal4
66%19%
Standard Liège0
15%
ARSSTL
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG4.10.5
Non-shot xG2.70.8
See more
Team ratingchance of finishing groupround-by-round probabilities
teamgroupspioff.def.1st2ndmake round of 32make round of 16make qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Man. United4 pts
L
81.0
2.1
0.5
82%13%95%66%42%25%14%8%
Arsenal6 pts
F
80.2
2.4
0.7
85%13%98%66%41%24%13%7%
Sevilla6 pts
A
78.7
2.1
0.6
96%4%>99%64%37%20%11%6%
Porto3 pts
G
78.4
2.2
0.7
47%28%75%50%31%19%10%6%
RB Salzburg
84.1
3.2
1.0
42%28%19%13%8%5%
Getafe6 pts
C
75.8
1.9
0.6
68%25%93%57%31%16%8%4%
Inter Milan
80.1
2.2
0.6
52%32%20%12%7%4%
PSV6 pts
D
74.7
2.4
1.0
69%21%91%53%29%15%7%4%
Chelsea
85.5
2.5
0.5
31%22%15%10%6%3%
Liverpool
92.8
2.9
0.3
11%9%8%6%5%3%
Napoli
82.2
2.4
0.6
38%24%16%10%6%3%
Real Madrid
85.3
2.6
0.6
25%19%13%8%5%3%
Leverkusen
80.7
2.3
0.6
32%23%14%9%5%3%
Wolves3 pts
K
73.4
1.9
0.7
55%29%84%48%24%12%5%2%
Roma4 pts
J
73.0
2.1
0.8
54%26%80%45%23%11%5%2%
Wolfsburg4 pts
I
71.8
1.9
0.7
68%22%90%49%24%11%5%2%
Eintracht3 pts
F
72.7
2.0
0.8
12%61%73%39%20%10%5%2%
Dortmund
84.3
2.5
0.6
19%13%8%5%3%2%
Young Boys3 pts
G
71.4
2.3
1.1
31%35%65%35%18%9%4%2%
Tottenham
80.2
2.3
0.7
27%18%11%6%3%2%
Atlético Madrid
85.2
2.2
0.4
15%11%7%5%3%2%
RB Leipzig
81.8
2.3
0.6
24%15%9%5%3%2%
Lazio3 pts
E
71.1
2.0
0.8
43%29%73%38%18%8%4%2%
Olympiacos
74.3
2.2
0.8
37%23%13%7%3%2%
Basel4 pts
C
70.2
2.2
1.0
28%48%76%39%19%9%4%2%
Club Brugge
72.5
2.1
0.9
45%26%13%6%3%1%
Gladbach1 pt
J
72.4
2.1
0.9
18%23%42%23%12%6%3%1%
Juventus
87.4
2.6
0.5
8%7%5%3%2%1%
Ludogorets6 pts
H
66.1
1.8
0.9
62%31%93%44%19%8%3%1%
Valencia
73.2
2.1
0.8
42%21%10%5%2%1%
Benfica
76.0
2.2
0.8
21%13%7%4%2%1%
Barcelona
88.6
2.8
0.5
7%5%3%3%2%1%
Zenit
76.0
2.1
0.7
27%15%8%4%2%<1%
Dynamo Kiev4 pts
B
65.5
1.9
1.0
52%29%81%36%15%6%2%<1%
Espanyol4 pts
H
66.2
1.7
0.9
34%42%76%35%14%5%2%<1%
Ajax
84.2
3.0
0.9
9%6%4%2%1%<1%
Atalanta
71.0
2.1
0.9
21%12%6%3%1%<1%
Sporting3 pts
D
64.3
1.8
1.0
17%45%62%26%10%4%2%<1%
Celtic4 pts
E
63.8
1.8
1.0
41%31%72%32%13%5%2%<1%
Rangers3 pts
G
65.8
2.0
1.1
16%24%41%19%8%3%1%<1%
LASK Linz3 pts
D
63.8
1.8
1.0
14%31%45%19%8%3%1%<1%
Dinamo Zagreb
66.9
2.1
1.1
44%21%8%3%1%<1%
Lokomotiv
65.2
1.7
0.9
45%22%9%3%1%<1%
Shakhtar
69.9
2.1
1.0
35%18%8%3%1%<1%
Krasnodar0 pts
C
69.5
2.0
0.9
3%16%19%10%5%2%1%<1%
Lyon
71.5
1.9
0.8
27%13%6%3%1%<1%
Lille
69.0
1.8
0.8
19%9%4%2%<1%<1%
Copenhagen4 pts
B
60.3
1.8
1.2
35%35%70%26%9%3%<1%<1%
CSKA Moscow0 pts
H
66.8
1.8
0.9
3%19%22%10%5%2%<1%<1%
Galatasaray
64.4
1.8
1.0
28%13%5%2%<1%<1%
PSG
89.5
2.7
0.4
2%1%1%<1%<1%<1%
Bayern Munich
93.3
3.2
0.4
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Red Star
62.8
2.0
1.2
35%15%6%2%<1%<1%
Braga4 pts
K
57.5
1.6
1.1
31%34%65%22%7%2%<1%<1%
AZ Alkmaar2 pts
L
59.6
1.7
1.1
8%40%49%17%6%2%<1%<1%
St Étienne1 pt
I
60.4
1.5
0.9
10%32%42%15%5%2%<1%<1%
Rennes1 pt
E
59.7
1.5
0.9
10%23%32%12%4%1%<1%<1%
Malmö1 pt
B
59.4
1.5
0.9
11%28%39%14%5%2%<1%<1%
Wolfsberg4 pts
J
55.9
1.7
1.3
23%35%58%18%6%2%<1%<1%
Slavia Prague
61.5
1.8
1.1
22%8%3%1%<1%<1%
Apoel Nicosia0 pts
A
57.8
1.6
1.1
<1%31%32%11%4%1%<1%<1%
Standard Liège3 pts
F
56.0
1.7
1.3
3%23%26%8%2%<1%<1%<1%
Trabzonspor1 pt
C
58.0
1.8
1.2
2%10%12%4%2%<1%<1%<1%
Qarabağ3 pts
A
51.1
1.4
1.2
2%55%57%14%3%<1%<1%<1%
Man. City
95.2
3.3
0.2
<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Beşiktaş0 pts
K
57.9
1.9
1.4
4%13%17%6%2%<1%<1%<1%
Başakşehir1 pt
J
56.6
1.5
1.0
5%15%20%7%2%<1%<1%<1%
Genk
61.3
1.9
1.2
9%3%1%<1%<1%<1%
Partizan4 pts
L
50.9
1.5
1.2
8%33%41%11%3%<1%<1%<1%
Astana0 pts
L
56.2
1.6
1.2
2%14%15%5%2%<1%<1%<1%
Gent4 pts
I
53.1
1.6
1.3
20%37%57%15%4%1%<1%<1%
Feyenoord3 pts
G
53.4
1.9
1.5
6%13%19%6%2%<1%<1%<1%
Guimarães0 pts
F
56.1
1.4
1.0
<1%3%4%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Ferencváros1 pt
H
50.9
1.5
1.3
1%8%10%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
CFR Cluj3 pts
E
45.5
1.4
1.4
6%17%23%5%1%<1%<1%<1%
Slovan4 pts
K
45.2
1.2
1.3
10%23%34%7%1%<1%<1%<1%
Lugano1 pt
B
42.8
1.2
1.3
2%8%10%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Oleksandriya1 pt
I
43.9
1.3
1.4
2%9%11%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Dudelange3 pts
A
36.4
1.4
1.9
<1%10%11%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Rosenborg0 pts
D
41.8
1.3
1.5
<1%2%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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