Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

La Liga
Upcoming
3/31
Espanyol
50%
28%
Real Betis
22%
4/1
Villarreal
54%
28%
Eibar
18%
4/1
Osasuna
29%
28%
Athletic Bilbao
43%
4/1
Real Sociedad
54%
28%
Leganes
19%
4/1
Málaga
24%
28%
Atletico Madrid
48%
4/2
Sevilla
68%
20%
Sporting Gijón
12%
4/2
Real Madrid
86%
10%
Alavés
4%
4/2
Valencia
49%
26%
Deportivo
24%
4/2
Granada
6%
10%
Barcelona
83%
4/2
Celta Vigo
17%
18%
Real Madrid
64%
4/3
Celta Vigo
48%
25%
Las Palmas
26%
4/4
Athletic Bilbao
52%
28%
Espanyol
20%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Barcelona4
96%4%
Valencia2
<1%
BARVAL
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG4.51.2
Non-shot xG4.70.5
3/19
Deportivo0
44%27%
Celta Vigo1
29%
DEPVIG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.0
Non-shot xG0.90.6
3/19
Sporting Gijón3
51%26%
Granada1
23%
GIJGRN
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.91.2
Non-shot xG1.40.7
3/19
Atletico Madrid3
55%27%
Sevilla1
19%
ATLSEV
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG1.91.3
3/19
Leganes0
45%29%
Málaga0
26%
LEGMGA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.31.0
3/18
Real Betis2
54%26%
Osasuna0
20%
BETOSA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG0.91.0
3/18
Alavés1
38%29%
Real Sociedad0
34%
ALASOC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.10.4
Non-shot xG1.10.9
3/18
Athletic Bilbao1
21%22%
Real Madrid2
57%
BILMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.9
Non-shot xG2.71.5
3/18
Eibar1
48%28%
Espanyol1
24%
EIBESP
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.3
Non-shot xG1.70.4
3/17
Las Palmas1
33%28%
Villarreal0
39%
PALVLR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.4
Non-shot xG1.60.7
3/13
Osasuna1
33%27%
Eibar1
40%
OSAEIB
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG1.11.3
3/12
Real Madrid2
91%7%
Real Betis1
2%
MADBET
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.5
Non-shot xG2.10.9
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Real Madrid65 pts
3.0
0.9
27.56.83.7+5989>99%59%
Barcelona63 pts
3.4
0.7
26.77.34.0+7687>99%41%
Sevilla57 pts
1.9
1.0
21.88.18.1+217393%<1%
Atletico Madrid55 pts
1.9
0.7
21.29.57.2+357392%<1%
Villarreal48 pts
1.6
0.8
17.211.79.2+2163<1%9%<1%
Real Sociedad48 pts
1.7
1.1
18.85.413.9+262<1%5%<1%
Athletic Bilbao44 pts
1.5
0.9
16.97.813.3+458<1%1%<1%
Eibar41 pts
1.5
1.0
14.210.513.3+253<1%<1%<1%
Espanyol40 pts
1.4
1.0
13.312.811.9+053<1%<1%<1%
Celta Vigo38 pts
1.6
1.1
14.97.915.2-653<1%<1%<1%
Alavés40 pts
1.3
1.0
13.112.712.2-752<1%<1%<1%
Las Palmas35 pts
1.6
1.2
12.010.615.4-447<1%<1%<1%
Valencia30 pts
1.6
1.2
11.78.517.8-1444<1%<1%
Real Betis31 pts
1.4
1.1
10.99.817.3-16421%<1%
Deportivo27 pts
1.4
1.1
9.111.617.3-15396%<1%
Málaga27 pts
1.4
1.2
8.811.517.7-173812%<1%
Leganes26 pts
1.1
1.0
8.910.818.3-223712%
Sporting Gijón21 pts
1.4
1.4
7.78.421.9-313174%
Granada19 pts
1.2
1.5
6.29.322.4-412893%
Osasuna11 pts
1.3
1.5
3.510.324.2-4721>99%
Forecast from

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