Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 9:27 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2018-19 season

Spain

Updated Oct. 21, 2018, at 4:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/22
Real Sociedad
55%
24%
Girona
21%
10/24
Rayo Vallecano
42%
26%
Athletic Bilbao
32%
10/26
Valladolid
34%
30%
Espanyol
36%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/21
Real Betis0
57%27%
Valladolid1
16%
BETVLD
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG1.90.6
10/21
Huesca0
39%28%
Espanyol2
33%
HUEESP
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.31.8
Non-shot xG0.80.8
10/21
Eibar1
49%27%
Athletic Bilbao1
24%
EIBBIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.81.0
Non-shot xG1.50.4
10/21
Rayo Vallecano1
40%29%
Getafe2
31%
RAYGET
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.40.5
Non-shot xG1.20.7
10/20
Barcelona4
73%16%
Sevilla2
12%
BARSEV
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG3.02.8
Non-shot xG1.52.0
10/20
Villarreal1
29%27%
Atlético Madrid1
44%
VLRATL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.01.5
Non-shot xG1.71.8
10/20
Valencia1
58%26%
Leganés1
16%
VALLEG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG2.10.4
10/20
Real Madrid1
86%9%
Levante2
4%
MADLEV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG3.31.6
Non-shot xG5.40.8
10/19
Celta Vigo0
51%25%
Alavés1
24%
VIGALA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.40.8
10/7
Valencia1
22%22%
Barcelona1
56%
VALBAR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.42.5
10/7
Sevilla2
64%20%
Celta Vigo1
16%
SEVVIG
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG1.41.5
10/7
Espanyol3
47%28%
Villarreal1
25%
ESPVLR
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.71.6
Non-shot xG2.01.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona18 pts
91.8
3.1
0.4
24.18.15.8+5180<1%94%53%
Real Madrid14 pts
91.3
3.0
0.4
22.77.38.0+4175<1%87%29%
Atlético Madrid16 pts
86.9
2.2
0.3
18.611.38.1+2267<1%60%9%
Sevilla16 pts
81.8
2.5
0.7
19.07.611.5+2164<1%50%5%
Espanyol17 pts
78.5
1.9
0.5
15.99.812.4+7572%23%1%
Real Sociedad11 pts
76.2
2.1
0.7
14.49.414.2+1536%13%<1%
Valencia10 pts
80.2
2.0
0.5
12.814.510.7+3536%13%<1%
Alavés17 pts
72.3
1.8
0.7
14.19.714.2-3526%11%<1%
Getafe12 pts
77.3
1.8
0.5
13.111.213.7-2519%9%<1%
Real Betis12 pts
77.0
1.8
0.5
12.911.014.2-65010%7%<1%
Eibar11 pts
75.5
1.9
0.6
12.89.615.6-84813%6%<1%
Villarreal9 pts
74.9
2.1
0.7
12.410.015.5-44715%5%<1%
Levante13 pts
67.6
2.0
1.0
12.97.717.4-134717%4%<1%
Valladolid15 pts
68.8
1.7
0.7
11.910.515.6-124617%4%<1%
Celta Vigo10 pts
71.4
2.0
0.9
11.410.915.7-94520%3%<1%
Athletic Bilbao8 pts
72.0
1.9
0.8
10.712.614.7-114522%4%<1%
Girona9 pts
70.8
1.9
0.8
11.310.516.2-124423%4%<1%
Leganés8 pts
72.3
1.8
0.7
11.39.817.0-124425%2%<1%
Rayo Vallecano5 pts
66.4
1.8
0.9
9.19.219.7-263652%<1%<1%
Huesca5 pts
66.5
1.8
0.9
8.79.220.0-283556%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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