Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2019-20 season

Spain

Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
February 25 - March 2
2/28
Real Sociedad
68%
21%
Valladolid
10%
2/29
Eibar
53%
25%
Levante
22%
2/29
Valencia
45%
25%
Real Betis
30%
2/29
Leganés
48%
30%
Alavés
22%
2/29
Granada
41%
29%
Celta Vigo
29%
3/1
Sevilla
68%
21%
Osasuna
11%
3/1
Athletic Bilbao
38%
28%
Villarreal
34%
3/1
Espanyol
26%
29%
Atlético Madrid
45%
3/1
Mallorca
25%
28%
Getafe
47%
3/1
Real Madrid
46%
23%
Barcelona
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 18-24
2/23
Atlético Madrid3
59%24%
Villarreal1
16%
ATLVLR
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG1.60.8
2/23
Getafe0
49%30%
Sevilla3
21%
GETSEV
Adjusted goals0.03.0
Shot-based xG0.52.1
Non-shot xG0.91.3
2/23
Valladolid2
36%30%
Espanyol1
34%
VLDESP
Adjusted goals1.41.1
Shot-based xG1.61.4
Non-shot xG1.00.6
2/23
Alavés2
44%30%
Athletic Bilbao1
26%
ALABIL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.6
Non-shot xG1.10.7
2/23
Osasuna0
50%28%
Granada3
22%
OSAGRN
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.91.3
Non-shot xG1.10.4
2/22
Levante1
12%17%
Real Madrid0
72%
LEVMAD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.72.1
Non-shot xG1.02.6
2/22
Real Sociedad3
54%23%
Valencia0
23%
SOCVAL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.50.6
Non-shot xG1.31.1
2/22
Barcelona5
82%13%
Eibar0
5%
BAREIB
Adjusted goals4.30.0
Shot-based xG5.20.6
Non-shot xG1.90.4
2/22
Celta Vigo1
51%28%
Leganés0
21%
VIGLEG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.20.4
Non-shot xG0.21.2
2/21
Real Betis3
56%24%
Mallorca3
20%
BETMLA
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG2.91.0
Non-shot xG2.00.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona55 pts
90.3
2.9
0.5
+4983>99%60%
Real Madrid53 pts
89.8
2.7
0.4
+4581>99%40%
Atlético Madrid43 pts
84.8
2.0
0.3
+1766<1%62%<1%
Sevilla43 pts
81.4
2.1
0.5
+1665<1%60%<1%
Getafe42 pts
80.4
1.8
0.4
+1562<1%36%<1%
Real Sociedad40 pts
77.1
2.2
0.7
+1361<1%27%<1%
Villarreal38 pts
73.8
2.1
0.8
+856<1%8%<1%
Valencia38 pts
69.4
2.0
0.9
-355<1%5%<1%
Granada36 pts
69.5
1.7
0.7
-153<1%2%<1%
Real Betis30 pts
72.0
2.0
0.8
-6472%<1%<1%
Levante32 pts
63.4
1.9
1.1
-9473%<1%<1%
Athletic Bilbao31 pts
70.6
1.7
0.6
-1473%<1%<1%
Osasuna31 pts
69.0
1.8
0.8
-8464%<1%<1%
Alavés30 pts
66.8
1.7
0.8
-14449%<1%<1%
Eibar24 pts
68.4
1.7
0.7
-174218%<1%<1%
Valladolid29 pts
62.0
1.5
0.8
-134216%<1%<1%
Celta Vigo24 pts
69.5
1.8
0.8
-144028%<1%<1%
Espanyol19 pts
68.7
1.8
0.8
-263470%<1%<1%
Leganés19 pts
68.2
1.6
0.7
-233473%<1%<1%
Mallorca22 pts
60.1
1.7
1.1
-263475%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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