Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2019-20 season

Spain

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 4:51 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 22-28
10/25
Villarreal
58%
24%
Alavés
18%
10/26
Leganés
51%
29%
Mallorca
20%
10/26
Valladolid
39%
30%
Eibar
31%
10/26
Atlético Madrid
64%
25%
Athletic Bilbao
12%
10/27
Celta Vigo
36%
27%
Real Sociedad
38%
10/27
Granada
47%
26%
Real Betis
27%
10/27
Levante
45%
26%
Espanyol
29%
10/27
Sevilla
54%
26%
Getafe
20%
10/27
Osasuna
38%
27%
Valencia
35%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
Sevilla1
65%20%
Levante0
15%
SEVLEV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.6
Non-shot xG2.70.5
10/20
Athletic Bilbao1
55%28%
Valladolid1
17%
BILVLD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.70.6
10/20
Espanyol0
37%26%
Villarreal1
37%
ESPVLR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.5
Non-shot xG2.00.8
10/20
Real Sociedad3
56%24%
Real Betis1
20%
SOCBET
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG2.01.4
10/20
Alavés2
43%29%
Celta Vigo0
28%
ALAVIG
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG1.61.4
10/19
Mallorca1
19%22%
Real Madrid0
59%
MLAMAD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.20.6
Non-shot xG0.72.2
10/19
Getafe2
53%28%
Leganés0
18%
GETLEG
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG0.80.4
Non-shot xG0.71.2
10/19
Atlético Madrid1
63%22%
Valencia1
15%
ATLVAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG1.91.5
10/19
Eibar0
22%23%
Barcelona3
55%
EIBBAR
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.32.0
Non-shot xG1.01.8
10/18
Granada1
48%28%
Osasuna0
24%
GRNOSA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.40.6
Non-shot xG1.00.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona19 pts
89.5
2.8
0.4
+5282<1%95%60%
Real Madrid18 pts
85.2
2.5
0.5
+3173<1%78%21%
Atlético Madrid16 pts
84.7
2.2
0.4
+2067<1%59%9%
Sevilla16 pts
79.5
2.1
0.6
+1163<1%43%4%
Real Sociedad16 pts
75.8
2.0
0.7
+10591%27%2%
Villarreal14 pts
74.2
2.1
0.8
+10563%20%1%
Valencia13 pts
73.8
2.1
0.8
+3554%17%<1%
Getafe13 pts
75.8
1.9
0.6
+4544%15%<1%
Granada17 pts
69.6
1.8
0.7
+1544%13%<1%
Athletic Bilbao13 pts
73.8
1.8
0.6
+1516%9%<1%
Eibar9 pts
72.2
1.8
0.7
-54813%5%<1%
Osasuna11 pts
69.3
1.7
0.7
-74715%4%<1%
Real Betis9 pts
68.2
1.9
0.9
-144520%3%<1%
Celta Vigo9 pts
67.4
1.8
0.9
-144423%2%<1%
Levante11 pts
63.5
1.9
1.1
-144324%2%<1%
Valladolid11 pts
64.7
1.6
0.8
-134324%2%<1%
Alavés11 pts
66.7
1.6
0.8
-144324%2%<1%
Mallorca10 pts
62.9
1.6
0.9
-214036%<1%<1%
Espanyol5 pts
66.1
1.7
0.8
-233747%<1%<1%
Leganés2 pts
68.4
1.6
0.7
-193652%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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