Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:55 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2020-21

Spain

Updated Nov. 3, 2020, at 4:51 p.m.

Upcoming matches
November 3-9
11/6
Elche
32%
29%
Celta Vigo
39%
11/7
Huesca
42%
30%
Eibar
27%
11/7
Barcelona
74%
16%
Real Betis
10%
11/7
Sevilla
60%
26%
Osasuna
14%
11/7
Atlético Madrid
70%
21%
Cádiz
9%
11/8
Getafe
37%
29%
Villarreal
34%
11/8
Real Sociedad
60%
25%
Granada
15%
11/8
Valladolid
35%
31%
Athletic Bilbao
33%
11/8
Levante
49%
27%
Alavés
24%
11/8
Valencia
14%
19%
Real Madrid
66%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 27 - November 2
11/2
Villarreal2
63%23%
Valladolid0
14%
VLRVLD
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG1.31.4
11/1
Valencia2
35%31%
Getafe2
35%
VALGET
Adjusted goals2.11.7
Shot-based xG1.72.8
Non-shot xG0.82.3
11/1
Granada1
49%27%
Levante1
25%
GRNLEV
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.20.9
Non-shot xG0.42.8
11/1
Celta Vigo1
28%29%
Real Sociedad4
43%
VIGSOC
Adjusted goals1.13.9
Shot-based xG2.22.3
Non-shot xG1.21.4
11/1
Real Betis3
55%26%
Elche1
19%
BETELC
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.30.6
Non-shot xG2.30.3
10/31
Alavés1
13%19%
Barcelona1
68%
ALABAR
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.92.2
Non-shot xG0.35.7
10/31
Osasuna1
21%27%
Atlético Madrid3
53%
OSAATL
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG1.22.9
Non-shot xG0.91.2
10/31
Athletic Bilbao2
25%30%
Sevilla1
45%
BILSEV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.31.2
10/31
Real Madrid4
82%14%
Huesca1
5%
MADHUE
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG2.71.1
Non-shot xG2.70.6
10/30
Eibar0
42%31%
Cádiz2
27%
EIBCAD
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG1.20.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Real Madrid16 pts
88.6
2.6
0.4
+4380<1%89%40%
Barcelona8 pts
89.9
2.9
0.5
+4978<1%87%30%
Atlético Madrid14 pts
86.2
2.3
0.4
+3674<1%75%19%
Real Sociedad17 pts
81.5
2.1
0.5
+2666<1%47%5%
Villarreal15 pts
77.0
2.1
0.7
+860<1%26%2%
Sevilla7 pts
81.5
2.0
0.4
+13601%27%2%
Getafe11 pts
75.7
1.8
0.5
+2543%11%<1%
Real Betis12 pts
73.0
1.9
0.7
-2534%10%<1%
Granada14 pts
70.5
1.8
0.7
-6534%9%<1%
Cádiz14 pts
68.4
1.7
0.7
-6507%5%<1%
Athletic Bilbao9 pts
70.9
1.7
0.7
-74711%4%<1%
Osasuna10 pts
69.2
1.7
0.7
-84711%4%<1%
Celta Vigo6 pts
69.9
1.8
0.7
-144418%2%<1%
Levante5 pts
67.7
1.9
0.9
-134321%2%<1%
Valencia8 pts
64.7
1.8
1.0
-154126%1%<1%
Eibar8 pts
65.4
1.6
0.8
-173932%<1%<1%
Alavés8 pts
63.8
1.6
0.8
-183932%<1%<1%
Elche10 pts
58.0
1.6
1.0
-263836%<1%<1%
Huesca5 pts
64.1
1.7
0.9
-203836%<1%<1%
Valladolid3 pts
61.5
1.5
0.9
-253358%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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