Updated March 2, 2021, at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2020-21

Spain

Updated March 1, 2021, at 4:52 p.m.

Upcoming matches
March 2-8
3/5
Valencia
31%
28%
Villarreal
41%
3/6
Valladolid
38%
33%
Getafe
28%
3/6
Elche
17%
25%
Sevilla
59%
3/6
Cádiz
31%
31%
Eibar
39%
3/6
Osasuna
11%
17%
Barcelona
72%
3/7
Huesca
38%
29%
Celta Vigo
34%
3/7
Atlético Madrid
38%
28%
Real Madrid
34%
3/7
Real Sociedad
66%
21%
Levante
13%
3/7
Athletic Bilbao
57%
26%
Granada
17%
3/8
Real Betis
52%
27%
Alavés
21%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 23 - March 1
3/1
Real Madrid1
49%27%
Real Sociedad1
24%
MADSOC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG2.00.9
2/28
Villarreal0
28%29%
Atlético Madrid2
43%
VLRATL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG2.11.0
2/28
Granada2
49%28%
Elche1
23%
GRNELC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
2/28
Cádiz0
29%27%
Real Betis1
44%
CADBET
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.30.7
Non-shot xG0.20.6
2/28
Celta Vigo1
54%26%
Valladolid1
20%
VIGVLD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG1.00.2
2/27
Getafe3
42%31%
Valencia0
26%
GETVAL
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG0.80.3
Non-shot xG1.20.7
2/27
Alavés0
42%30%
Osasuna1
28%
ALAOSA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.41.3
Non-shot xG0.80.7
2/27
Sevilla0
27%23%
Barcelona2
51%
SEVBAR
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.12.0
Non-shot xG0.42.4
2/27
Eibar1
49%29%
Huesca1
23%
EIBHUE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.6
Non-shot xG1.40.5
2/26
Levante1
36%27%
Athletic Bilbao1
37%
LEVBIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.9
Non-shot xG0.31.5
2/24
Barcelona3
90%7%
Elche0
2%
BARELC
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG3.00.4
Non-shot xG2.90.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Atlético Madrid58 pts
84.5
2.2
0.4
+3882—>99%42%
Barcelona53 pts
91.2
3.1
0.5
+5282—>99%39%
Real Madrid53 pts
87.8
2.4
0.3
+3478—96%17%
Sevilla48 pts
81.4
2.1
0.5
+2372—75%2%
Real Sociedad42 pts
83.6
2.2
0.4
+2965<1%25%<1%
Real Betis39 pts
75.4
2.0
0.7
-259<1%4%<1%
Villarreal37 pts
78.6
2.0
0.5
+957<1%2%<1%
Athletic Bilbao30 pts
76.9
1.9
0.6
+850<1%<1%<1%
Levante32 pts
67.9
1.9
0.9
-248<1%<1%<1%
Celta Vigo30 pts
73.0
1.9
0.7
-9471%<1%<1%
Granada33 pts
64.2
1.7
0.9
-18461%<1%<1%
Osasuna28 pts
69.6
1.7
0.7
-13445%<1%<1%
Valencia27 pts
66.1
1.8
0.9
-8439%<1%<1%
Getafe27 pts
69.4
1.5
0.6
-14428%<1%<1%
Cádiz25 pts
59.5
1.5
1.0
-253925%<1%<1%
Eibar22 pts
71.0
1.7
0.7
-123733%<1%<1%
Alavés22 pts
64.7
1.6
0.8
-233737%<1%<1%
Valladolid22 pts
60.4
1.5
0.9
-213556%<1%<1%
Huesca20 pts
63.8
1.7
0.9
-193553%<1%<1%
Elche21 pts
54.6
1.5
1.1
-273270%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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