Updated Dec. 15, 2018, at 3:29 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2018-19 season

Spain

Updated Dec. 14, 2018, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/15
Getafe
47%
29%
Real Sociedad
24%
12/15
Valladolid
25%
28%
Atlético Madrid
47%
12/15
Real Madrid
81%
13%
Rayo Vallecano
6%
12/15
Eibar
43%
28%
Valencia
29%
12/16
Sevilla
68%
19%
Girona
13%
12/16
Espanyol
44%
28%
Real Betis
27%
12/16
Huesca
42%
27%
Villarreal
32%
12/16
Levante
13%
15%
Barcelona
72%
12/17
Alavés
44%
28%
Athletic Bilbao
28%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/14
Celta Vigo0
48%26%
Leganés0
27%
VIGLEG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG2.30.5
12/10
Athletic Bilbao1
49%26%
Girona0
25%
BILGIR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.2
Non-shot xG2.50.6
12/9
Real Betis2
55%25%
Rayo Vallecano0
20%
BETRAY
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG1.01.2
12/9
Real Sociedad1
58%26%
Valladolid2
17%
SOCVLD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.1
Non-shot xG2.20.4
12/9
Huesca0
18%19%
Real Madrid1
63%
HUEMAD
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.70.5
12/9
Eibar4
59%23%
Levante4
18%
EIBLEV
Adjusted goals4.24.2
Shot-based xG4.62.1
Non-shot xG4.11.2
12/8
Espanyol0
20%20%
Barcelona4
60%
ESPBAR
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG1.04.2
Non-shot xG1.92.6
12/8
Villarreal2
50%24%
Celta Vigo3
26%
VLRVIG
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.82.6
Non-shot xG1.81.2
12/8
Valencia1
42%26%
Sevilla1
31%
VALSEV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.4
Non-shot xG1.60.7
12/8
Atlético Madrid3
67%23%
Alavés0
10%
ATLALA
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG2.41.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
12/7
Leganés1
42%31%
Getafe1
28%
LEGGET
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.81.1
Non-shot xG1.20.5
12/3
Levante3
42%25%
Athletic Bilbao0
33%
LEVBIL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG1.41.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona31 pts
91.1
3.1
0.5
24.47.95.7+5481<1%98%69%
Real Madrid26 pts
88.0
2.8
0.5
21.86.59.7+2872<1%86%16%
Atlético Madrid28 pts
85.6
2.1
0.3
18.112.97.0+2267<1%70%7%
Sevilla28 pts
82.3
2.4
0.6
19.19.39.6+2267<1%67%6%
Valencia18 pts
81.6
2.0
0.4
12.715.110.2+5533%12%<1%
Getafe21 pts
78.2
1.9
0.5
13.512.212.3+4534%10%<1%
Alavés24 pts
71.8
1.8
0.7
14.29.014.7-5525%9%<1%
Real Betis22 pts
75.9
1.9
0.6
13.810.214.0-4525%9%<1%
Eibar19 pts
78.6
2.1
0.6
13.89.814.4-4516%8%<1%
Real Sociedad19 pts
76.7
2.0
0.6
13.69.914.5+0516%7%<1%
Espanyol21 pts
73.4
1.9
0.7
13.78.915.3-7507%6%<1%
Celta Vigo21 pts
72.9
2.1
0.9
12.511.214.4-1499%4%<1%
Girona21 pts
70.1
1.9
0.8
11.911.714.4-84712%4%<1%
Levante22 pts
65.5
2.1
1.2
12.79.016.3-114713%3%<1%
Leganés18 pts
74.7
1.8
0.6
11.611.914.6-74713%2%<1%
Valladolid20 pts
68.5
1.7
0.8
11.311.015.7-124519%2%<1%
Athletic Bilbao14 pts
72.8
1.9
0.7
9.613.914.5-134329%1%<1%
Villarreal14 pts
72.6
2.0
0.8
10.510.716.8-104230%1%<1%
Rayo Vallecano10 pts
66.1
1.8
0.9
8.29.420.3-283468%<1%<1%
Huesca7 pts
68.5
1.8
0.8
7.69.920.4-273373%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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