Updated Apr. 22, 2018 at 9:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

league-logo

La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Apr. 22, 2018, at 4:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/23
Athletic Bilbao
61%
24%
Levante
15%
4/27
Levante
33%
26%
Sevilla
41%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/22
Atlético Madrid0
63%24%
Real Betis0
13%
ATLBET
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.90.8
4/22
Las Palmas0
37%29%
Alavés4
34%
PALALA
Adjusted goals0.03.4
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG0.81.0
4/22
Málaga2
29%28%
Real Sociedad0
44%
MGASOC
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.3
Non-shot xG0.51.4
4/22
Girona0
52%29%
Espanyol2
20%
GIRESP
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.10.3
4/21
Celta Vigo1
44%25%
Valencia1
31%
VIGVAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.82.3
Non-shot xG0.71.6
4/21
Eibar0
47%32%
Getafe1
21%
EIBGET
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.7
Non-shot xG1.20.4
4/20
Leganés0
52%28%
Deportivo0
20%
LEGDEP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.0
Non-shot xG1.10.8
4/19
Levante1
44%30%
Málaga0
25%
LEVMGA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG1.60.8
4/19
Real Betis1
68%20%
Las Palmas0
12%
BETPAL
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.40.0
Non-shot xG1.60.4
4/19
Real Sociedad3
36%27%
Atlético Madrid0
37%
SOCATL
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG0.70.6
Non-shot xG1.41.1
4/19
Alavés1
46%28%
Girona2
26%
ALAGIR
Adjusted goals1.11.7
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG1.41.5
4/18
Real Madrid1
84%11%
Athletic Bilbao1
6%
MADBIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG3.10.8
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona83 pts
91.2
3.1
0.5
28.48.80.7+7194—✓>99%
Atlético Madrid72 pts
84.4
2.2
0.4
23.110.14.8+3979—✓<1%
Real Madrid68 pts
91.9
3.6
0.6
23.38.86.0+5179—>99%<1%
Valencia66 pts
76.9
2.1
0.7
21.97.09.1+2873—>99%—
Real Betis56 pts
73.7
1.9
0.7
18.76.113.2+262—<1%—
Villarreal51 pts
68.8
1.9
0.9
16.47.114.5+256—<1%—
Sevilla48 pts
73.2
2.1
0.9
15.97.215.0-1155———
Getafe48 pts
73.3
1.7
0.5
14.610.313.2+954———
Girona47 pts
68.2
1.9
0.9
14.59.114.5-652———
Celta Vigo45 pts
71.6
2.1
0.9
13.69.814.6+551———
Real Sociedad43 pts
77.3
2.3
0.7
13.67.916.5+649———
Eibar43 pts
71.2
1.7
0.6
13.28.016.7-1148———
Athletic Bilbao40 pts
71.3
1.9
0.7
11.114.312.6-248<1%——
Alavés41 pts
67.9
1.7
0.7
14.23.220.7-1446———
Espanyol39 pts
67.4
1.5
0.6
10.413.114.5-1244<1%——
Leganés40 pts
66.2
1.5
0.7
12.17.918.0-1644<1%——
Levante34 pts
59.4
1.6
1.0
7.914.215.9-23382%——
Deportivo28 pts
62.7
1.7
1.0
6.910.920.2-363298%——
Las Palmas21 pts
51.9
1.4
1.2
5.87.125.1-5024✓——
Málaga20 pts
63.0
1.5
0.7
6.16.325.7-3024✓——
Forecast from
Season

Comments