Updated April 22, 2019, at 5:15 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2018-19 season

Spain

Updated April 21, 2019, at 4:40 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/23
Huesca
37%
26%
Eibar
37%
4/23
Valladolid
46%
27%
Girona
27%
4/23
Alavés
15%
19%
Barcelona
66%
4/24
Atlético Madrid
44%
29%
Valencia
27%
4/24
Espanyol
47%
25%
Celta Vigo
29%
4/24
Leganés
45%
31%
Athletic Bilbao
24%
4/24
Levante
46%
24%
Real Betis
30%
4/25
Sevilla
68%
19%
Rayo Vallecano
13%
4/25
Real Sociedad
46%
25%
Villarreal
29%
4/25
Getafe
42%
26%
Real Madrid
33%
4/27
Athletic Bilbao
56%
26%
Alavés
18%
4/27
Atlético Madrid
71%
21%
Valladolid
8%
4/27
Leganés
56%
25%
Celta Vigo
19%
4/27
Barcelona
88%
8%
Levante
4%
4/28
Valencia
50%
26%
Eibar
24%
4/28
Girona
35%
25%
Sevilla
40%
4/28
Real Sociedad
43%
29%
Getafe
28%
4/28
Villarreal
54%
23%
Huesca
23%
4/28
Rayo Vallecano
21%
21%
Real Madrid
59%
4/29
Real Betis
49%
26%
Espanyol
25%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/21
Real Betis1
27%27%
Valencia2
46%
BETVAL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG2.00.9
4/21
Villarreal2
52%27%
Leganés1
22%
VLRLEG
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.11.2
Non-shot xG0.70.7
4/21
Real Madrid3
63%21%
Athletic Bilbao0
16%
MADBIL
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.30.6
Non-shot xG2.51.1
4/21
Getafe3
40%27%
Sevilla0
33%
GETSEV
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG2.50.7
Non-shot xG1.30.4
4/21
Levante2
47%24%
Espanyol2
28%
LEVESP
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.42.4
Non-shot xG1.91.0
4/20
Barcelona2
82%12%
Real Sociedad1
5%
BARSOC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.4
Non-shot xG2.40.7
4/20
Rayo Vallecano0
45%25%
Huesca0
30%
RAYHUE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.41.0
4/20
Eibar0
39%28%
Atlético Madrid1
32%
EIBATL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG1.01.1
4/20
Celta Vigo2
47%25%
Girona1
29%
VIGGIR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.5
Non-shot xG1.50.9
4/19
Alavés2
45%28%
Valladolid2
27%
ALAVLD
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.92.0
Non-shot xG0.41.0
4/15
Leganés1
30%25%
Real Madrid1
44%
LEGMAD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.2
Non-shot xG0.70.9
4/14
Valencia3
68%19%
Levante1
13%
VALLEV
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.60.3
Non-shot xG1.80.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona77 pts
92.8
3.1
0.3
26.58.82.7+5988>99%
Atlético Madrid68 pts
87.2
2.2
0.2
22.79.36.1+3077<1%
Real Madrid64 pts
87.6
2.8
0.5
22.85.010.2+2573>99%<1%
Getafe54 pts
79.9
1.9
0.4
15.913.28.9+146139%
Sevilla52 pts
80.3
2.3
0.7
17.48.212.4+146028%
Valencia52 pts
82.0
2.1
0.5
14.217.36.5+126033%
Athletic Bilbao46 pts
77.4
1.9
0.5
12.914.310.7-353<1%
Alavés46 pts
69.1
1.8
0.8
13.311.213.5-1051<1%
Real Betis43 pts
72.2
2.0
0.8
13.68.216.3-849<1%<1%
Leganés41 pts
77.5
1.8
0.4
12.012.413.6-448<1%<1%
Espanyol42 pts
70.6
1.9
0.8
12.610.315.0-1048<1%<1%
Real Sociedad41 pts
75.3
2.0
0.7
11.812.313.9-248<1%<1%
Eibar40 pts
79.8
2.1
0.6
10.714.213.0-446<1%<1%
Villarreal36 pts
74.4
2.1
0.8
9.613.215.2-5425%
Celta Vigo35 pts
66.5
2.0
1.0
10.39.118.5-124017%
Girona34 pts
70.8
1.9
0.8
9.611.317.1-134020%
Levante34 pts
64.0
2.0
1.2
9.511.017.5-173924%
Valladolid32 pts
66.6
1.8
0.9
8.512.317.2-213849%
Rayo Vallecano28 pts
66.1
1.8
0.9
8.38.121.5-243390%
Huesca26 pts
69.5
1.9
0.9
6.612.319.1-213296%
Forecast from
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