Updated Nov. 23, 2017 at 5:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Nov. 23, 2017 at 2:57 PM

Upcoming matches
11/24
Celta Vigo
48%
27%
Leganés
25%
11/25
Alavés
41%
30%
Eibar
29%
11/25
Real Madrid
90%
7%
Málaga
2%
11/25
Real Betis
50%
25%
Girona
25%
11/25
Levante
23%
29%
Atlético Madrid
48%
11/26
Deportivo
39%
27%
Athletic Bilbao
34%
11/26
Real Sociedad
76%
15%
Las Palmas
8%
11/26
Villarreal
48%
25%
Sevilla
27%
11/26
Valencia
22%
21%
Barcelona
57%
11/27
Espanyol
46%
29%
Getafe
25%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/20
Eibar5
43%27%
Real Betis0
30%
EIBBET
Adjusted goals4.40.0
Shot-based xG2.30.8
Non-shot xG1.20.4
11/19
Athletic Bilbao1
45%27%
Villarreal1
28%
BILVLR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.50.9
11/19
Las Palmas0
50%26%
Levante2
24%
PALLEV
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.90.9
Non-shot xG2.20.5
11/19
Espanyol0
36%27%
Valencia2
37%
ESPVAL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG1.60.4
11/19
Málaga3
46%27%
Deportivo2
26%
MGADEP
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG0.80.6
11/18
Atlético Madrid0
31%25%
Real Madrid0
44%
ATLMAD
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG0.42.0
11/18
Sevilla2
56%23%
Celta Vigo1
21%
SEVVIG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.52.3
Non-shot xG1.61.8
11/18
Leganés0
17%22%
Barcelona3
61%
LEGBAR
Adjusted goals0.02.6
Shot-based xG1.72.9
Non-shot xG1.11.6
11/18
Getafe4
51%29%
Alavés1
20%
GETALA
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG3.60.7
Non-shot xG1.60.9
11/17
Girona1
33%24%
Real Sociedad1
43%
GIRSOC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.31.1
11/5
Real Madrid3
92%6%
Las Palmas0
2%
MADPAL
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.1
Non-shot xG2.31.0
11/5
Real Sociedad3
64%21%
Eibar1
15%
SOCEIB
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.40.3
Non-shot xG1.10.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona34 pts
94.1
3.3
0.3
30.24.93.0+7595<1%>99%81%
Real Madrid24 pts
93.5
3.5
0.4
25.96.95.2+5985<1%98%16%
Valencia30 pts
78.9
2.4
0.7
21.18.88.1+3072<1%70%2%
Atlético Madrid24 pts
81.8
2.0
0.4
19.012.76.3+2470<1%61%<1%
Sevilla22 pts
74.9
2.1
0.8
17.67.213.2+560<1%20%<1%
Real Sociedad18 pts
77.8
2.4
0.8
16.88.712.5+1159<1%19%<1%
Villarreal21 pts
75.1
2.1
0.7
16.49.212.5+858<1%16%<1%
Leganés17 pts
70.4
1.6
0.6
13.89.015.2-6503%3%<1%
Getafe16 pts
69.4
1.9
0.8
13.310.414.3+1504%4%<1%
Real Betis17 pts
65.8
1.9
1.0
13.48.316.3-12486%3%<1%
Athletic Bilbao12 pts
71.6
1.9
0.7
12.79.415.9-6477%2%<1%
Celta Vigo14 pts
69.6
2.1
1.0
12.97.817.3-3478%2%<1%
Girona16 pts
64.7
1.7
0.9
12.010.415.6-13469%1%<1%
Espanyol13 pts
68.2
1.6
0.7
11.311.415.3-104511%1%<1%
Eibar11 pts
67.4
1.8
0.8
11.48.817.8-204317%<1%<1%
Deportivo11 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
10.38.019.7-233930%<1%<1%
Levante15 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
8.612.217.2-223833%<1%<1%
Málaga7 pts
62.8
1.7
0.9
9.17.521.4-293548%<1%<1%
Alavés6 pts
61.9
1.5
0.8
9.16.722.2-273452%<1%<1%
Las Palmas6 pts
56.3
1.7
1.2
8.06.024.0-423069%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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