Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

La Liga

2020-21

Spain

Updated Oct. 27, 2020, at 5:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/30
Eibar
42%
31%
Cádiz
27%
10/31
Real Madrid
81%
14%
Huesca
5%
10/31
Athletic Bilbao
26%
30%
Sevilla
43%
10/31
Osasuna
21%
26%
Atlético Madrid
53%
10/31
Alavés
14%
20%
Barcelona
66%
11/1
Real Betis
55%
26%
Elche
19%
11/1
Celta Vigo
28%
29%
Real Sociedad
43%
11/1
Granada
51%
26%
Levante
23%
11/1
Valencia
35%
31%
Getafe
35%
11/2
Villarreal
62%
23%
Valladolid
14%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/26
Levante1
40%28%
Celta Vigo1
32%
LEVVIG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.10.9
10/25
Real Sociedad4
62%25%
Huesca1
13%
SOCHUE
Adjusted goals4.11.1
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.60.4
10/25
Getafe0
44%30%
Granada1
26%
GETGRN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.21.1
Non-shot xG1.80.5
10/25
Cádiz0
29%27%
Villarreal0
44%
CADVLR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.30.8
Non-shot xG0.80.9
10/25
Valladolid0
43%31%
Alavés2
27%
VLDALA
Adjusted goals0.01.4
Shot-based xG0.32.3
Non-shot xG0.71.4
10/24
Atlético Madrid2
64%22%
Real Betis0
14%
ATLBET
Adjusted goals1.50.0
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.60.9
10/24
Sevilla0
64%25%
Eibar1
11%
SEVEIB
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.70.1
Non-shot xG1.70.5
10/24
Osasuna1
42%30%
Athletic Bilbao0
27%
OSABIL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.7
Non-shot xG0.41.1
10/24
Barcelona1
49%23%
Real Madrid3
27%
BARMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.93.2
Non-shot xG1.61.8
10/23
Elche2
38%28%
Valencia1
34%
ELCVAL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.11.1
Non-shot xG0.11.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Real Madrid13 pts
88.6
2.6
0.4
+4079<1%87%38%
Barcelona7 pts
88.7
2.8
0.5
+4678<1%84%31%
Atlético Madrid11 pts
86.2
2.3
0.4
+3473<1%71%18%
Real Sociedad14 pts
81.1
2.1
0.5
+2264<1%40%4%
Sevilla7 pts
81.8
2.0
0.4
+1562<1%33%3%
Villarreal12 pts
76.6
2.1
0.7
+6591%23%2%
Granada13 pts
73.2
1.9
0.7
+0572%19%1%
Getafe10 pts
75.4
1.7
0.5
+2544%12%<1%
Real Betis9 pts
71.8
1.9
0.7
-5517%8%<1%
Osasuna10 pts
69.9
1.7
0.7
-6499%6%<1%
Cádiz11 pts
67.3
1.7
0.8
-94712%3%<1%
Celta Vigo6 pts
71.1
1.8
0.7
-104615%3%<1%
Athletic Bilbao6 pts
70.0
1.7
0.7
-104518%3%<1%
Valencia7 pts
65.8
1.8
0.9
-144225%2%<1%
Eibar8 pts
66.4
1.6
0.7
-134224%2%<1%
Levante4 pts
65.9
1.8
0.9
-154226%2%<1%
Elche10 pts
59.8
1.6
1.0
-224030%1%<1%
Alavés7 pts
64.6
1.6
0.8
-183932%<1%<1%
Huesca5 pts
64.4
1.7
0.9
-193837%<1%<1%
Valladolid3 pts
61.3
1.5
0.9
-243357%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments