Updated Feb. 25, 2018 at 12:05 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Feb. 24, 2018 at 4:41 PM

Upcoming matches
2/25
Villarreal
46%
29%
Getafe
26%
2/25
Athletic Bilbao
58%
27%
Málaga
15%
2/25
Valencia
49%
23%
Real Sociedad
29%
2/25
Sevilla
33%
29%
Atlético Madrid
38%
2/26
Levante
39%
26%
Real Betis
35%
2/27
Espanyol
15%
19%
Real Madrid
66%
2/27
Girona
48%
24%
Celta Vigo
28%
2/28
Málaga
36%
28%
Sevilla
36%
2/28
Getafe
61%
25%
Deportivo
14%
2/28
Athletic Bilbao
43%
27%
Valencia
30%
2/28
Eibar
52%
26%
Villarreal
21%
2/28
Atlético Madrid
69%
25%
Leganés
6%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
2/24
Barcelona6
86%11%
Girona1
3%
BARGIR
Adjusted goals6.11.1
Shot-based xG3.40.7
Non-shot xG2.70.7
2/24
Leganés0
58%25%
Las Palmas0
17%
LEGPAL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.50.2
Non-shot xG1.20.5
2/24
Real Madrid4
85%10%
Alavés0
4%
MADALA
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG3.60.6
Non-shot xG3.20.9
2/24
Celta Vigo2
45%26%
Eibar0
30%
VIGEIB
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.62.2
Non-shot xG0.92.0
2/23
Deportivo0
41%29%
Espanyol0
30%
DEPESP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.3
Non-shot xG1.10.7
2/21
Leganés1
16%19%
Real Madrid3
64%
LEGMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.12.1
Non-shot xG1.12.1
2/19
Getafe3
45%27%
Celta Vigo0
28%
GETVIG
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.50.1
Non-shot xG1.20.4
2/18
Real Betis3
14%15%
Real Madrid5
71%
BETMAD
Adjusted goals3.24.7
Shot-based xG2.51.7
Non-shot xG1.51.4
2/18
Espanyol1
41%28%
Villarreal1
30%
ESPVLR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG1.40.9
2/18
Atlético Madrid2
62%26%
Athletic Bilbao0
12%
ATLBIL
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.10.2
Non-shot xG1.70.5
2/18
Real Sociedad3
68%19%
Levante0
13%
SOCLEV
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG1.51.0
2/17
Málaga1
33%28%
Valencia2
39%
MGAVAL
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.10.9
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona65 pts
94.7
3.3
0.3
29.96.91.1+8097>99%99%
Atlético Madrid55 pts
84.4
2.1
0.3
23.110.54.5+3580<1%>99%<1%
Real Madrid51 pts
91.9
3.6
0.6
23.98.06.0+5580<1%>99%<1%
Valencia46 pts
75.7
2.2
0.8
19.97.310.7+2167<1%74%<1%
Sevilla39 pts
72.8
2.1
0.8
17.36.514.2-458<1%12%<1%
Villarreal38 pts
70.2
1.9
0.8
15.98.513.6+356<1%7%<1%
Eibar35 pts
74.2
1.9
0.6
15.08.414.5-554<1%3%<1%
Girona34 pts
70.9
1.9
0.8
14.210.213.7-153<1%1%<1%
Celta Vigo35 pts
71.1
2.1
0.9
14.97.915.2+552<1%1%<1%
Getafe33 pts
72.4
1.7
0.6
13.012.912.1+752<1%1%<1%
Real Betis33 pts
65.5
2.0
1.1
14.66.417.0-1250<1%<1%<1%
Real Sociedad29 pts
75.6
2.4
0.9
13.98.215.9+350<1%<1%<1%
Athletic Bilbao28 pts
71.8
1.8
0.7
11.513.413.1-448<1%<1%<1%
Leganés30 pts
66.0
1.5
0.7
11.89.316.9-13451%<1%<1%
Alavés28 pts
65.4
1.6
0.8
13.04.620.4-18443%<1%<1%
Espanyol28 pts
65.7
1.6
0.7
9.713.614.7-14434%<1%<1%
Levante20 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
6.414.517.1-263448%<1%
Las Palmas19 pts
55.5
1.6
1.2
7.97.023.2-453177%<1%
Deportivo18 pts
59.3
1.6
1.0
7.09.121.9-383079%<1%
Málaga13 pts
62.5
1.5
0.8
6.57.923.6-302788%<1%
Forecast from
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