Updated Aug. 3, 2020, at 10:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2019-20

Spain

Updated July 19, 2020, at 5:08 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
July 14-20
7/19
Sevilla1
46%27%
Valencia0
27%
SEVVAL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.3
Non-shot xG1.40.7
7/19
Leganés2
25%29%
Real Madrid2
45%
LEGMAD
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.41.1
Non-shot xG1.31.8
7/19
Levante1
32%30%
Getafe0
38%
LEVGET
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.71.9
Non-shot xG1.32.0
7/19
Espanyol0
32%29%
Celta Vigo0
39%
ESPVIG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.6
Non-shot xG1.10.8
7/19
Osasuna2
43%27%
Mallorca2
30%
OSAMLA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.10.7
Non-shot xG1.11.1
7/19
Atlético Madrid1
43%29%
Real Sociedad1
28%
ATLSOC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.4
Non-shot xG1.10.7
7/19
Granada4
41%29%
Athletic Bilbao0
30%
GRNBIL
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.20.6
Non-shot xG1.10.5
7/19
Villarreal4
42%27%
Eibar0
31%
VLREIB
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.80.6
Non-shot xG1.90.7
7/19
Valladolid2
32%29%
Real Betis0
39%
VLDBET
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG0.92.0
7/19
Alavés0
23%23%
Barcelona5
54%
ALABAR
Adjusted goals0.05.1
Shot-based xG0.33.8
Non-shot xG0.93.4
7/16
Real Sociedad0
35%28%
Sevilla0
37%
SOCSEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG1.20.7
7/16
Mallorca1
34%28%
Granada2
39%
MLAGRN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.51.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Real Madrid87 pts
88.5
2.5
0.4
+4587—✓✓
Barcelona82 pts
91.0
2.9
0.4
+4882—✓—
Atlético Madrid70 pts
85.5
2.1
0.3
+2470—✓—
Sevilla70 pts
81.6
2.0
0.4
+2070—✓—
Villarreal60 pts
76.7
2.2
0.7
+1460———
Real Sociedad56 pts
77.0
2.0
0.6
+856———
Granada56 pts
75.7
1.9
0.6
+756———
Getafe54 pts
76.5
1.7
0.4
+654———
Valencia53 pts
66.2
1.8
0.9
-753———
Osasuna52 pts
70.5
1.8
0.8
-852———
Athletic Bilbao51 pts
65.8
1.7
0.8
+351———
Levante49 pts
65.3
1.9
1.0
-649———
Valladolid42 pts
65.3
1.5
0.7
-1142———
Eibar42 pts
68.8
1.7
0.8
-1742———
Real Betis41 pts
71.7
2.0
0.8
-1241———
Alavés39 pts
61.7
1.6
0.9
-2539———
Celta Vigo37 pts
69.9
1.8
0.7
-1237———
Leganés36 pts
73.5
1.7
0.5
-2136✓——
Mallorca33 pts
61.7
1.8
1.1
-2533✓——
Espanyol25 pts
67.4
1.6
0.7
-3125✓——
Forecast from
Season

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