Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

La Liga
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/21
Barcelona4
93%6%
Eibar2
1%
BAREIB
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG5.30.8
Non-shot xG3.40.8
5/21
Málaga0
14%17%
Real Madrid2
69%
MGAMAD
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.32.7
Non-shot xG1.51.8
5/21
Valencia1
38%27%
Villarreal3
35%
VALVLR
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG2.71.6
5/21
Atletico Madrid3
54%29%
Athletic Bilbao1
16%
ATLBIL
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG3.01.3
Non-shot xG1.71.6
5/21
Celta Vigo2
36%26%
Real Sociedad2
37%
VIGSOC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG1.41.4
5/20
Sevilla5
69%20%
Osasuna0
11%
SEVOSA
Adjusted goals5.00.0
Shot-based xG1.90.2
Non-shot xG2.20.4
5/20
Leganes1
45%31%
Alavés1
25%
LEGALA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG1.71.4
5/20
Deportivo3
47%26%
Las Palmas0
26%
DEPPAL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG0.21.4
5/20
Sporting Gijón2
47%27%
Real Betis2
26%
GIJBET
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.22.2
Non-shot xG1.52.1
5/19
Granada1
32%30%
Espanyol2
38%
GRNESP
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.60.7
Non-shot xG0.80.3
5/17
Celta Vigo1
12%14%
Real Madrid4
74%
VIGMAD
Adjusted goals1.13.7
Shot-based xG1.13.6
Non-shot xG2.22.6
5/14
Real Sociedad2
50%27%
Málaga2
23%
SOCMGA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG1.80.5
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Real Madrid93 pts
3.4
0.9
29.06.03.0+6593
Barcelona90 pts
3.5
0.8
28.06.04.0+7990
Atletico Madrid78 pts
1.9
0.6
23.09.06.0+4378
Sevilla72 pts
1.9
1.0
21.09.08.0+2072
Villarreal67 pts
1.8
0.9
19.010.09.0+2367
Real Sociedad64 pts
1.8
1.1
19.07.012.0+664
Athletic Bilbao63 pts
1.8
0.9
19.06.013.0+1063
Espanyol56 pts
1.3
1.0
15.011.012.0-156
Alavés55 pts
1.4
1.0
14.013.011.0-255
Eibar54 pts
1.5
1.0
15.09.014.0+554
Málaga46 pts
1.5
1.0
12.010.016.0-646
Valencia46 pts
1.7
1.2
13.07.018.0-946
Celta Vigo45 pts
1.5
1.3
13.06.019.0-1645
Real Betis39 pts
1.4
1.2
10.09.019.0-2339
Las Palmas39 pts
1.5
1.5
10.09.019.0-2139
Deportivo36 pts
1.3
1.2
8.012.018.0-1836
Leganes35 pts
1.3
1.0
8.011.019.0-1935
Sporting Gijón31 pts
1.4
1.3
7.010.021.0-3031
Osasuna22 pts
1.3
1.7
4.010.024.0-5422
Granada20 pts
1.0
1.5
4.08.026.0-5220
Forecast from

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