Updated Feb. 20, 2019, at 2:55 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2018-19 season

Spain

Updated Feb. 20, 2019, at 1:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/22
Espanyol
46%
26%
Huesca
28%
2/23
Getafe
58%
26%
Rayo Vallecano
17%
2/23
Sevilla
33%
22%
Barcelona
44%
2/23
Alavés
46%
26%
Celta Vigo
28%
2/23
Athletic Bilbao
39%
28%
Eibar
32%
2/24
Leganés
34%
30%
Valencia
37%
2/24
Atlético Madrid
61%
24%
Villarreal
15%
2/24
Valladolid
42%
29%
Real Betis
29%
2/24
Levante
21%
19%
Real Madrid
60%
2/25
Girona
38%
27%
Real Sociedad
36%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/18
Huesca0
45%28%
Athletic Bilbao1
27%
HUEBIL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.51.1
2/17
Real Betis1
48%28%
Alavés1
23%
BETALA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.21.2
Non-shot xG1.80.9
2/17
Villarreal3
31%25%
Sevilla0
44%
VLRSEV
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG1.72.2
Non-shot xG1.42.2
2/17
Valencia0
63%22%
Espanyol0
14%
VALESP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.90.2
Non-shot xG2.60.4
2/17
Real Madrid1
81%13%
Girona2
6%
MADGIR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.93.3
Non-shot xG1.91.2
2/16
Barcelona1
87%10%
Valladolid0
3%
BARVLD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG4.60.4
Non-shot xG3.40.5
2/16
Real Sociedad3
50%28%
Leganés0
22%
SOCLEG
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG1.91.1
Non-shot xG1.10.7
2/16
Rayo Vallecano0
29%27%
Atlético Madrid1
44%
RAYATL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.2
Non-shot xG0.41.5
2/16
Celta Vigo1
56%22%
Levante4
22%
VIGLEV
Adjusted goals1.13.4
Shot-based xG1.63.0
Non-shot xG0.81.7
2/15
Eibar2
50%28%
Getafe2
22%
EIBGET
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.21.1
2/11
Alavés2
51%25%
Levante0
24%
ALALEV
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.60.3
Non-shot xG0.90.3
2/10
Athletic Bilbao0
20%21%
Barcelona0
59%
BILBAR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG1.32.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona54 pts
91.7
3.1
0.4
25.08.54.5+5684—>99%89%
Real Madrid45 pts
87.1
2.8
0.6
22.05.910.1+2572<1%97%6%
Atlético Madrid47 pts
86.4
2.1
0.2
19.711.76.6+2471<1%95%5%
Sevilla37 pts
82.4
2.3
0.6
16.710.410.9+1761<1%48%<1%
Getafe36 pts
79.0
1.9
0.4
14.412.810.8+1056<1%18%<1%
Valencia32 pts
83.4
2.1
0.4
12.217.78.1+954<1%13%<1%
Real Sociedad34 pts
78.8
2.1
0.6
14.510.612.9+654<1%11%<1%
Alavés36 pts
71.0
1.8
0.7
14.29.714.1-752<1%6%<1%
Eibar31 pts
81.0
2.2
0.5
12.813.511.7+2521%5%<1%
Real Betis33 pts
73.9
1.9
0.7
13.49.615.0-7502%3%<1%
Athletic Bilbao30 pts
76.9
1.9
0.5
11.115.811.1-4493%2%<1%
Leganés29 pts
75.9
1.8
0.5
12.111.814.1-5484%2%<1%
Espanyol29 pts
70.8
1.9
0.8
12.78.516.8-13477%<1%<1%
Levante30 pts
64.5
2.0
1.1
11.89.117.0-154512%<1%<1%
Girona27 pts
70.1
1.9
0.8
10.512.614.9-124416%<1%<1%
Valladolid26 pts
66.4
1.7
0.8
9.611.816.6-164134%<1%<1%
Villarreal23 pts
72.6
2.0
0.8
8.614.415.0-94039%<1%<1%
Celta Vigo24 pts
67.3
2.0
1.0
10.09.218.8-143946%<1%<1%
Rayo Vallecano23 pts
66.9
1.8
0.9
9.78.320.0-223758%<1%<1%
Huesca18 pts
70.4
1.9
0.8
8.29.520.3-223477%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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