Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2019-20 season

Spain

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 5:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 20-26
8/23
Granada
31%
26%
Sevilla
43%
8/23
Levante
43%
24%
Villarreal
33%
8/24
Osasuna
37%
28%
Eibar
34%
8/24
Real Madrid
79%
15%
Valladolid
6%
8/24
Celta Vigo
34%
25%
Valencia
42%
8/24
Getafe
45%
29%
Athletic Bilbao
26%
8/25
Alavés
43%
28%
Espanyol
29%
8/25
Mallorca
36%
27%
Real Sociedad
37%
8/25
Leganés
26%
29%
Atlético Madrid
45%
8/25
Barcelona
83%
12%
Real Betis
5%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Atlético Madrid1
61%24%
Getafe0
15%
ATLGET
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.30.3
Non-shot xG0.60.9
8/18
Real Betis1
55%25%
Valladolid2
20%
BETVLD
Adjusted goals1.11.7
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG0.80.8
8/18
Espanyol0
40%26%
Sevilla2
35%
ESPSEV
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.22.7
Non-shot xG0.21.3
8/18
Alavés1
46%26%
Levante0
28%
ALALEV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.8
Non-shot xG0.71.1
8/17
Leganés0
50%28%
Osasuna1
21%
LEGOSA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG0.90.2
8/17
Villarreal4
55%24%
Granada4
21%
VLRGRN
Adjusted goals4.14.2
Shot-based xG2.11.8
Non-shot xG1.01.1
8/17
Mallorca2
37%28%
Eibar1
36%
MLAEIB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.0
Non-shot xG1.21.7
8/17
Valencia1
54%24%
Real Sociedad1
22%
VALSOC
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG2.11.5
Non-shot xG2.11.6
8/17
Celta Vigo1
23%22%
Real Madrid3
55%
VIGMAD
Adjusted goals0.82.9
Shot-based xG1.61.8
Non-shot xG1.42.3
8/16
Athletic Bilbao1
19%22%
Barcelona0
59%
BILBAR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.51.3
Non-shot xG0.61.6
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona0 pts
91.1
2.9
0.4
+5382<1%91%52%
Real Madrid3 pts
85.4
2.6
0.6
+3675<1%75%23%
Atlético Madrid3 pts
83.5
2.2
0.4
+2267<1%55%10%
Sevilla3 pts
76.8
2.1
0.7
+11603%32%4%
Valencia1 pt
77.5
2.2
0.7
+10584%28%3%
Athletic Bilbao3 pts
73.8
1.8
0.6
+2547%18%1%
Real Sociedad1 pt
73.7
2.0
0.7
+2539%16%1%
Getafe0 pts
73.7
1.8
0.6
-15111%12%<1%
Eibar0 pts
72.7
1.9
0.7
-25012%12%<1%
Villarreal1 pt
69.8
2.0
0.9
-64915%10%<1%
Real Betis0 pts
71.3
1.9
0.8
-64817%9%<1%
Espanyol0 pts
68.3
1.8
0.8
-114522%6%<1%
Celta Vigo0 pts
67.4
1.9
1.0
-124522%6%<1%
Leganés0 pts
70.3
1.7
0.6
-94523%5%<1%
Alavés3 pts
66.1
1.7
0.8
-134523%5%<1%
Valladolid3 pts
65.2
1.7
0.9
-144424%5%<1%
Osasuna3 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
-144424%4%<1%
Mallorca3 pts
64.1
1.7
0.9
-164327%4%<1%
Levante0 pts
65.4
1.9
1.0
-144327%4%<1%
Granada1 pt
64.4
1.8
1.0
-164229%4%<1%
Forecast from
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