Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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La Liga

2018-19 season

Spain

Updated May 19, 2019, at 12:07 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/19
Eibar2
31%24%
Barcelona2
45%
EIBBAR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG2.01.6
5/19
Real Madrid0
53%23%
Real Betis2
25%
MADBET
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG0.91.6
Non-shot xG1.20.9
5/18
Huesca2
39%29%
Leganés1
32%
HUELEG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.51.1
5/18
Celta Vigo2
49%24%
Rayo Vallecano2
27%
VIGRAY
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG1.50.6
5/18
Alavés2
42%28%
Girona1
30%
ALAGIR
Adjusted goals1.81.1
Shot-based xG1.01.0
Non-shot xG1.30.9
5/18
Sevilla2
53%25%
Athletic Bilbao0
22%
SEVBIL
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.51.0
Non-shot xG1.11.8
5/18
Espanyol2
40%26%
Real Sociedad0
33%
ESPSOC
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.5
Non-shot xG0.51.1
5/18
Getafe2
60%24%
Villarreal2
16%
GETVLR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG2.40.9
5/18
Valladolid0
24%25%
Valencia2
51%
VLDVAL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG1.11.3
5/18
Levante2
33%26%
Atlético Madrid2
41%
LEVATL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.61.9
Non-shot xG1.82.1
5/12
Girona1
54%23%
Levante2
23%
GIRLEV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.41.1
5/12
Leganés0
44%30%
Espanyol2
26%
LEGESP
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.62.8
Non-shot xG1.21.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona87 pts
91.7
3.0
0.4
26.09.03.0+5487—✓✓
Atlético Madrid76 pts
84.2
2.1
0.4
22.010.06.0+2676—✓—
Real Madrid68 pts
84.5
2.6
0.6
21.05.012.0+1768—✓—
Valencia61 pts
80.5
2.3
0.6
15.016.07.0+1661—✓—
Getafe59 pts
79.7
2.0
0.5
15.014.09.0+1359———
Sevilla59 pts
79.1
2.3
0.7
17.08.013.0+1559———
Athletic Bilbao53 pts
77.9
1.9
0.5
13.014.011.0-453———
Espanyol53 pts
74.0
2.0
0.7
14.011.013.0-253———
Alavés50 pts
69.2
1.8
0.7
13.011.014.0-1150———
Real Sociedad50 pts
76.9
2.0
0.6
13.011.014.0-150———
Real Betis50 pts
74.4
2.0
0.7
14.08.016.0-850———
Eibar47 pts
79.8
2.1
0.5
11.014.013.0-447———
Leganés45 pts
76.2
1.7
0.5
11.012.015.0-645———
Villarreal44 pts
74.9
2.1
0.8
10.014.014.0-344———
Levante44 pts
67.4
2.1
1.1
11.011.016.0-744———
Celta Vigo41 pts
69.8
2.0
0.9
10.011.017.0-941———
Valladolid41 pts
67.0
1.7
0.8
10.011.017.0-1941———
Girona37 pts
70.4
1.8
0.8
9.010.019.0-1637✓——
Huesca33 pts
70.2
2.0
0.9
7.012.019.0-2233✓——
Rayo Vallecano32 pts
64.5
1.8
1.0
8.08.022.0-2932✓——
Forecast from
Season

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