Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:42 PM

Upcoming matches
9/29
Celta Vigo
60%
24%
Girona
16%
9/30
Deportivo
44%
27%
Getafe
29%
9/30
Sevilla
65%
22%
Málaga
14%
9/30
Levante
43%
30%
Alavés
27%
9/30
Leganés
30%
30%
Atlético Madrid
39%
10/1
Real Sociedad
54%
24%
Real Betis
22%
10/1
Barcelona
91%
7%
Las Palmas
2%
10/1
Valencia
49%
26%
Athletic Bilbao
25%
10/1
Villarreal
52%
26%
Eibar
22%
10/1
Real Madrid
87%
10%
Espanyol
4%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/25
Real Betis4
55%26%
Levante0
19%
BETLEV
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG1.00.9
9/24
Real Sociedad2
50%24%
Valencia3
26%
SOCVAL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.21.7
Non-shot xG1.40.8
9/24
Las Palmas0
44%28%
Leganés2
28%
PALLEG
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG1.01.6
Non-shot xG1.20.9
9/24
Eibar0
52%26%
Celta Vigo4
22%
EIBVIG
Adjusted goals0.03.1
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.01.0
9/24
Getafe4
36%29%
Villarreal0
35%
GETVLR
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.31.1
Non-shot xG1.91.3
9/24
Espanyol4
51%27%
Deportivo1
22%
ESPDEP
Adjusted goals3.61.1
Shot-based xG2.81.7
Non-shot xG1.61.3
9/23
Girona0
10%15%
Barcelona3
76%
GIRBAR
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG1.11.2
9/23
Málaga3
33%29%
Athletic Bilbao3
38%
MGABIL
Adjusted goals3.22.5
Shot-based xG2.11.8
Non-shot xG1.50.7
9/23
Alavés1
14%18%
Real Madrid2
68%
ALAMAD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.73.2
Non-shot xG0.42.7
9/23
Atlético Madrid2
57%25%
Sevilla0
18%
ATLSEV
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.41.9
9/21
Levante3
29%26%
Real Sociedad0
45%
LEVSOC
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.8
Non-shot xG1.21.9
9/21
Celta Vigo1
54%26%
Getafe1
20%
VIGGET
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG0.90.8
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona18 pts
93.8
3.5
0.4
29.54.63.8+7693<1%>99%69%
Real Madrid11 pts
93.3
3.5
0.5
26.36.75.0+6286<1%97%26%
Atlético Madrid14 pts
84.2
2.2
0.4
20.89.67.6+2972<1%70%4%
Sevilla13 pts
78.1
2.1
0.6
17.88.811.4+1162<1%33%<1%
Valencia12 pts
75.5
2.1
0.7
16.410.810.8+12601%27%<1%
Real Sociedad9 pts
74.5
2.2
0.8
16.37.414.3+3562%17%<1%
Real Betis12 pts
70.0
1.9
0.8
15.38.314.4+0544%13%<1%
Athletic Bilbao8 pts
75.2
2.0
0.7
14.610.013.3+3544%12%<1%
Leganés10 pts
70.2
1.7
0.6
13.39.615.1-6497%6%<1%
Villarreal7 pts
71.1
1.9
0.8
13.58.815.7-8498%6%<1%
Celta Vigo7 pts
69.6
1.9
0.9
12.98.716.3-54811%5%<1%
Espanyol8 pts
68.1
1.7
0.8
12.310.415.3-104712%5%<1%
Getafe8 pts
66.2
1.7
0.8
12.110.215.7-74613%3%<1%
Eibar6 pts
67.6
1.8
0.8
12.38.217.4-194516%3%<1%
Las Palmas6 pts
62.8
1.8
1.0
11.07.619.4-224128%<1%<1%
Levante9 pts
59.5
1.6
1.0
9.711.017.3-214029%<1%<1%
Deportivo4 pts
62.2
1.8
1.0
9.98.619.6-263837%<1%<1%
Alavés0 pts
64.5
1.6
0.8
9.48.620.0-213741%<1%<1%
Girona5 pts
59.4
1.5
0.9
8.810.119.0-253742%<1%<1%
Málaga1 pt
63.9
1.7
0.9
9.18.820.1-263644%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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