Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Ligue 1
Upcoming
3/31
Guingamp
52%
29%
Nancy
19%
4/1
Marseille
57%
25%
Dijon FCO
18%
4/1
Bastia
33%
31%
Lille
36%
4/2
Rennes
19%
25%
Lyon
56%
4/2
Lorient
43%
28%
Caen
29%
4/2
Montpellier
48%
28%
Toulouse
24%
4/2
Nantes
44%
30%
Angers
26%
4/2
Monaco
74%
18%
St Etienne
9%
4/2
Nice
43%
30%
Bordeaux
27%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
PSG2
65%19%
Lyon1
16%
PSGLYON
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.0
Non-shot xG1.80.9
3/19
Dijon FCO0
35%30%
St Etienne1
35%
DIJSTE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.0
Non-shot xG1.21.7
3/19
Caen0
9%16%
Monaco3
75%
CANMON
Adjusted goals0.02.9
Shot-based xG0.32.3
Non-shot xG0.72.1
3/18
Angers3
41%30%
Guingamp0
28%
ANGGUI
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.81.6
Non-shot xG1.80.8
3/18
Nancy2
45%30%
Lorient3
24%
NCYLOR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.81.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
3/18
Toulouse0
46%31%
Rennes0
23%
TOUREN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.20.9
Non-shot xG0.71.3
3/18
Bordeaux5
48%28%
Montpellier1
24%
BORMNT
Adjusted goals4.61.1
Shot-based xG2.81.2
Non-shot xG0.71.2
3/18
Nantes1
37%31%
Nice1
32%
NANNCE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.2
Non-shot xG2.20.6
3/17
Lille0
39%29%
Marseille0
31%
LLEMRS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.3
Non-shot xG1.30.3
3/17
Metz1
48%29%
Bastia0
23%
MTZBAS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.1
Non-shot xG0.90.1
3/12
Lorient1
3%9%
PSG2
88%
LORPSG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.31.2
Non-shot xG0.61.9
3/12
Lyon4
69%20%
Toulouse0
11%
LYONTOU
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.51.0
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
Monaco71 pts
2.4
0.9
28.06.23.8+7590>99%68%
PSG68 pts
2.4
0.7
27.56.04.5+5789>99%32%
Nice64 pts
1.4
1.1
20.612.15.3+227475%<1%
Lyon50 pts
2.2
1.0
21.73.812.5+3769<1%24%<1%
Marseille46 pts
1.5
1.2
16.49.312.3+858<1%<1%
Bordeaux46 pts
1.5
1.1
15.312.310.4+758<1%<1%
St Etienne44 pts
1.3
1.0
13.513.211.2+854<1%<1%
Guingamp38 pts
1.4
1.3
13.010.214.9-249<1%
Nantes38 pts
1.3
1.2
12.610.215.2-1848<1%
Rennes39 pts
1.1
1.1
11.214.312.5-848<1%
Toulouse37 pts
1.2
1.2
11.612.214.2-347<1%
Angers39 pts
1.3
1.2
12.88.017.1-1347<1%
Lille34 pts
1.3
1.1
11.89.217.0-945<1%
Metz35 pts
1.1
1.5
11.110.316.6-30443%
Montpellier33 pts
1.6
1.4
10.611.016.4-14433%
Caen32 pts
1.3
1.4
11.57.119.4-23427%
Dijon FCO28 pts
1.3
1.5
8.412.117.5-123731%
Nancy28 pts
1.0
1.3
9.09.319.8-233649%
Lorient25 pts
1.3
1.5
9.56.122.4-313469%
Bastia25 pts
0.9
1.5
6.712.019.3-273286%
Forecast from

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