Updated Feb. 16, 2019, at 11:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated Feb. 16, 2019, at 3:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/17
Bordeaux
51%
28%
Toulouse
21%
2/17
Lille
51%
29%
Montpellier
20%
2/17
Caen
37%
30%
Strasbourg
33%
2/17
Reims
35%
30%
Rennes
34%
2/17
St Étienne
17%
19%
PSG
63%
2/20
Bordeaux
48%
29%
Guingamp
22%
2/20
PSG
83%
13%
Montpellier
4%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/16
Angers3
40%31%
Nice0
29%
ANGNCE
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.10.6
Non-shot xG0.71.1
2/16
Monaco1
43%29%
Nantes0
29%
MONNAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG0.80.3
2/16
Marseille2
61%25%
Amiens0
14%
MRSAMI
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG1.01.1
2/15
Lyon2
77%16%
Guingamp1
7%
LYONGUI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.9
Non-shot xG2.01.1
2/15
Nîmes2
46%27%
Dijon FCO0
27%
NIMEDIJ
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.11.4
2/13
Caen0
36%31%
Nantes1
33%
CANNAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.3
Non-shot xG0.91.5
2/13
St Étienne2
51%26%
Strasbourg1
23%
STESTRA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG0.70.9
2/10
Nice1
26%27%
Lyon0
47%
NCELYON
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.62.5
Non-shot xG0.82.1
2/10
Guingamp0
29%28%
Lille2
43%
GUILLE
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG0.90.8
2/10
Rennes3
40%27%
St Étienne0
32%
RENSTE
Adjusted goals2.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.3
Non-shot xG1.41.5
2/10
Nantes2
52%27%
Nîmes4
21%
NANNIME
Adjusted goals2.13.7
Shot-based xG1.61.7
Non-shot xG2.10.8
2/10
Montpellier2
51%29%
Monaco2
20%
MNTMON
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG1.10.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG59 pts
91.2
3.1
0.4
31.34.32.3+8698—>99%>99%
Lyon46 pts
75.1
2.1
0.8
19.910.18.0+2170<1%80%<1%
Lille49 pts
67.9
1.8
0.8
20.77.79.6+2270—78%<1%
St Étienne40 pts
65.3
1.8
0.9
16.610.810.6+761<1%16%<1%
Marseille40 pts
67.6
1.8
0.8
17.27.413.3+759<1%10%<1%
Rennes36 pts
65.2
1.7
0.9
15.89.912.4+657<1%7%<1%
Montpellier37 pts
65.9
1.5
0.7
14.014.29.7+1056<1%5%<1%
Nice37 pts
61.0
1.5
0.8
14.510.612.8-854<1%1%<1%
Strasbourg35 pts
61.9
1.6
0.9
13.811.812.4+953<1%2%<1%
Reims35 pts
59.1
1.4
0.8
12.315.210.6-452<1%<1%<1%
Nîmes36 pts
58.1
1.6
1.1
14.09.314.7-351<1%<1%<1%
Bordeaux28 pts
62.0
1.5
0.8
12.311.514.2-248<1%<1%<1%
Angers33 pts
60.0
1.5
0.9
11.912.613.5-348<1%<1%<1%
Nantes27 pts
63.6
1.5
0.8
11.69.716.7-5442%<1%<1%
Toulouse27 pts
54.2
1.4
1.1
9.712.815.5-17426%<1%<1%
Monaco22 pts
58.9
1.5
1.0
9.110.418.4-213819%<1%<1%
Amiens21 pts
52.2
1.2
1.0
9.77.021.3-243631%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO20 pts
54.3
1.4
1.0
8.98.620.5-253537%<1%<1%
Caen18 pts
50.5
1.2
1.0
6.412.918.7-213258%<1%<1%
Guingamp14 pts
53.3
1.4
1.1
7.39.021.7-363168%<1%—
Forecast from
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