Updated Aug. 3, 2020, at 10:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2019-20

France

Updated March 11, 2020, at 5:57 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/8
Lille1
44%29%
Lyon0
27%
LLELYON
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.3
Non-shot xG1.40.8
3/8
Rennes5
49%29%
Montpellier0
21%
RENMNT
Adjusted goals4.80.0
Shot-based xG3.00.9
Non-shot xG0.91.0
3/8
St Étienne1
42%30%
Bordeaux1
29%
STEBOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG1.00.7
3/7
Angers2
45%31%
Nantes0
24%
ANGNAN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG0.41.6
3/7
Dijon FCO2
55%26%
Toulouse1
20%
DIJTOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.30.4
3/7
Reims1
48%29%
Brest0
23%
REIBRS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.00.8
3/7
Metz2
40%29%
Nîmes1
31%
MTZNIME
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.7
Non-shot xG1.11.3
3/7
Nice2
32%25%
Monaco1
43%
NCEMON
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.11.1
3/6
Marseille2
60%25%
Amiens2
14%
MRSAMI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG1.30.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG68 pts
89.2
3.2
0.7
+7395—>99%>99%
Marseille56 pts
67.1
1.7
0.8
+1371—88%<1%
Lille49 pts
70.8
1.8
0.7
+1366<1%57%<1%
Rennes50 pts
66.6
1.6
0.7
+1565<1%43%<1%
Lyon40 pts
73.5
1.8
0.6
+2158<1%6%<1%
Monaco40 pts
67.7
2.0
1.0
+356<1%3%<1%
Montpellier40 pts
61.6
1.6
0.9
+154<1%1%<1%
Strasbourg38 pts
62.7
1.6
0.9
+053<1%<1%<1%
Reims41 pts
60.3
1.4
0.8
+253<1%<1%<1%
Nice41 pts
58.1
1.6
1.0
-153<1%<1%<1%
Angers39 pts
61.5
1.4
0.8
-751<1%<1%<1%
Bordeaux37 pts
61.8
1.5
0.8
+651<1%<1%—
Nantes37 pts
61.0
1.5
0.9
-351<1%<1%—
Metz34 pts
52.7
1.3
1.0
-14444%<1%—
Brest34 pts
55.0
1.5
1.1
-9444%<1%—
Dijon FCO30 pts
55.8
1.4
1.0
-124210%<1%—
St Étienne30 pts
56.2
1.4
1.0
-204213%<1%—
Nîmes27 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
-193833%<1%—
Amiens23 pts
54.0
1.4
1.0
-213563%<1%—
Toulouse13 pts
48.6
1.4
1.3
-4223>99%——
Forecast from
Season

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