Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2019-20 season

France

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 4:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 20-26
8/24
Amiens
38%
30%
Nantes
32%
8/24
Brest
42%
28%
Reims
30%
8/24
Dijon FCO
43%
29%
Bordeaux
29%
8/24
Angers
49%
26%
Metz
25%
8/25
Monaco
49%
26%
Nîmes
25%
8/25
Strasbourg
42%
27%
Rennes
31%
8/25
PSG
88%
9%
Toulouse
3%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Rennes2
13%17%
PSG1
70%
RENPSG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.1
Non-shot xG0.61.3
8/18
Reims0
44%28%
Strasbourg0
28%
REISTRA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.4
Non-shot xG1.00.3
8/18
St Étienne1
57%24%
Brest1
19%
STEBRS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.5
Non-shot xG1.60.7
8/17
Nîmes1
43%27%
Nice2
29%
NIMENCE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.7
Non-shot xG1.40.6
8/17
Amiens1
29%28%
Lille0
43%
AMILLE
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.00.6
8/17
Metz3
36%27%
Monaco0
36%
MTZMON
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG2.50.6
Non-shot xG1.00.8
8/17
Toulouse1
48%27%
Dijon FCO0
26%
TOUDIJ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG2.11.5
8/17
Bordeaux1
37%29%
Montpellier1
34%
BORMNT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG0.90.7
8/17
Nantes0
42%27%
Marseille0
31%
NANMRS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.31.5
Non-shot xG0.80.8
8/16
Lyon6
65%21%
Angers0
15%
LYONANG
Adjusted goals6.30.0
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG0.60.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG3 pts
87.6
2.8
0.6
+6488<1%95%74%
Lyon6 pts
75.9
2.2
0.8
+3673<1%65%16%
Lille3 pts
67.9
1.8
0.8
+8583%21%2%
Rennes6 pts
60.7
1.7
1.0
+1555%15%1%
St Étienne4 pts
63.9
1.7
0.9
+3555%15%1%
Marseille1 pt
66.4
1.7
0.8
+4555%14%1%
Nice6 pts
60.7
1.5
0.9
-2537%11%<1%
Montpellier1 pt
64.1
1.6
0.8
+1528%10%<1%
Nantes1 pt
62.2
1.6
0.9
-25010%7%<1%
Angers3 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
-95011%7%<1%
Monaco0 pts
61.2
1.6
1.0
-84912%6%<1%
Reims4 pts
57.7
1.4
0.9
-64813%5%<1%
Strasbourg2 pts
59.2
1.5
1.0
-64714%5%<1%
Toulouse4 pts
56.4
1.5
1.1
-104716%5%<1%
Metz4 pts
55.7
1.5
1.1
-84716%4%<1%
Nîmes0 pts
57.1
1.6
1.1
-114519%4%<1%
Amiens3 pts
55.7
1.4
0.9
-114519%3%<1%
Bordeaux1 pt
56.6
1.4
1.0
-124421%3%<1%
Brest2 pts
52.7
1.5
1.2
-164227%2%<1%
Dijon FCO0 pts
53.4
1.4
1.1
-174031%1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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