Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated May 24, 2019, at 5:00 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/24
Nîmes2
33%24%
Lyon3
43%
NIMELYON
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.61.6
Non-shot xG1.51.6
5/24
Angers1
38%28%
St Étienne1
34%
ANGSTE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.4
Non-shot xG1.51.7
5/24
Nantes0
44%28%
Strasbourg1
28%
NANSTRA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG1.50.6
5/24
Dijon FCO2
43%28%
Toulouse1
29%
DIJTOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.4
Non-shot xG1.50.8
5/24
Reims3
25%22%
PSG1
52%
REIPSG
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG0.81.8
Non-shot xG0.72.3
5/24
Amiens2
48%31%
Guingamp1
21%
AMIGUI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.61.4
Non-shot xG1.91.2
5/24
Caen0
43%33%
Bordeaux1
25%
CANBOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.21.3
Non-shot xG1.81.2
5/24
Nice2
38%30%
Monaco0
32%
NCEMON
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.31.8
Non-shot xG0.61.3
5/24
Rennes3
33%27%
Lille1
40%
RENLLE
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.2
Non-shot xG0.70.9
5/24
Marseille1
41%28%
Montpellier0
31%
MRSMNT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.5
Non-shot xG0.91.4
5/18
Montpellier1
41%29%
Nantes1
31%
MNTNAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG1.90.6
5/18
Guingamp2
36%29%
Nîmes2
36%
GUINIME
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.32.5
Non-shot xG1.71.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG91 pts
85.0
2.8
0.7
29.04.05.0+7091—✓✓
Lille75 pts
72.6
1.9
0.7
22.09.07.0+3575—✓—
Lyon72 pts
75.5
2.3
0.9
21.09.08.0+2372—✓—
St Étienne66 pts
68.0
1.8
0.8
19.09.010.0+1866———
Marseille61 pts
68.2
1.8
0.8
18.07.013.0+861———
Montpellier59 pts
67.8
1.7
0.7
15.014.09.0+1159———
Nice56 pts
60.9
1.4
0.8
15.011.012.0-556———
Reims55 pts
57.0
1.4
1.0
13.016.09.0-355———
Nîmes53 pts
60.5
1.7
1.1
15.08.015.0-153———
Rennes52 pts
60.1
1.7
1.1
13.013.012.0+352———
Strasbourg49 pts
59.7
1.6
1.0
11.016.011.0+1049———
Nantes48 pts
66.3
1.7
0.8
13.09.016.0+048———
Angers46 pts
63.3
1.6
0.9
10.016.012.0-546———
Bordeaux41 pts
56.9
1.4
0.9
10.011.017.0-841———
Toulouse38 pts
56.1
1.5
1.1
8.014.016.0-2238———
Amiens38 pts
55.3
1.3
0.9
9.011.018.0-2138———
Monaco36 pts
63.5
1.7
0.9
8.012.018.0-1936———
Dijon FCO34 pts
52.7
1.4
1.1
9.07.022.0-293430%——
Caen33 pts
46.6
1.1
1.1
7.012.019.0-2533✓——
Guingamp27 pts
51.1
1.4
1.2
5.012.021.0-4027✓——
Forecast from
Season

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