Updated Oct. 18, 2018 at 12:05 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated Oct. 7, 2018, at 5:03 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/19
Lyon
71%
18%
Nîmes
10%
10/20
PSG
90%
8%
Amiens
2%
10/20
Caen
42%
29%
Guingamp
29%
10/20
Strasbourg
39%
27%
Monaco
34%
10/20
Reims
40%
31%
Angers
29%
10/20
Dijon FCO
37%
27%
Lille
35%
10/20
Nantes
47%
29%
Toulouse
24%
10/21
Montpellier
50%
30%
Bordeaux
21%
10/21
St Étienne
44%
29%
Rennes
27%
10/21
Nice
32%
26%
Marseille
42%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/7
PSG5
66%19%
Lyon0
15%
PSGLYON
Adjusted goals5.20.0
Shot-based xG4.81.8
Non-shot xG1.50.7
10/7
Marseille2
67%21%
Caen0
13%
MRSCAN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG1.30.8
10/7
Monaco1
48%27%
Rennes2
25%
MONREN
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG0.41.0
Non-shot xG0.90.7
10/7
Bordeaux3
42%30%
Nantes0
28%
BORNAN
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG0.51.9
10/6
Nîmes0
47%28%
Reims0
26%
NIMEREI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.0
Non-shot xG1.11.0
10/6
Angers2
45%29%
Strasbourg2
26%
ANGSTRA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG1.80.9
10/6
Guingamp1
40%30%
Montpellier1
30%
GUIMNT
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG0.41.5
10/6
Amiens1
41%28%
Dijon FCO0
31%
AMIDIJ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.30.4
Non-shot xG0.70.9
10/6
Lille3
45%27%
St Étienne1
28%
LLESTE
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG0.91.0
Non-shot xG1.20.7
10/5
Toulouse1
40%29%
Nice1
31%
TOUNCE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.51.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG27 pts
90.7
3.1
0.5
31.44.12.5+8498<1%>99%98%
Lyon14 pts
75.2
2.1
0.7
19.19.09.9+2166<1%54%<1%
Marseille16 pts
71.2
2.0
0.9
18.58.111.3+1764<1%43%<1%
Lille19 pts
63.7
1.7
0.9
16.88.612.6+9591%25%<1%
St Étienne15 pts
62.7
1.6
0.9
14.710.912.4-1553%14%<1%
Montpellier16 pts
64.0
1.5
0.7
13.912.411.7+2543%12%<1%
Rennes11 pts
64.5
1.6
0.8
14.010.313.7+0525%10%<1%
Nice11 pts
62.0
1.6
0.9
13.510.014.6-7507%7%<1%
Bordeaux14 pts
59.2
1.5
0.9
13.09.915.1-6498%5%<1%
Strasbourg12 pts
59.2
1.5
1.0
12.610.914.6-3499%5%<1%
Angers11 pts
60.4
1.5
0.9
12.610.215.2-54810%5%<1%
Toulouse13 pts
58.2
1.5
0.9
11.912.014.1-104811%4%<1%
Monaco6 pts
64.9
1.8
0.9
12.310.515.2-34712%4%<1%
Dijon FCO10 pts
57.7
1.6
1.1
12.28.617.3-124517%2%<1%
Caen10 pts
55.6
1.4
1.0
10.712.215.1-114419%2%<1%
Nîmes10 pts
54.9
1.5
1.1
10.811.615.6-134420%2%<1%
Reims10 pts
55.3
1.3
0.9
10.312.315.4-144321%2%<1%
Nantes6 pts
59.0
1.5
0.9
10.411.016.6-144224%1%<1%
Guingamp5 pts
57.3
1.5
1.0
10.49.917.8-184129%1%<1%
Amiens10 pts
53.0
1.3
1.0
10.49.018.6-174031%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments