Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Ligue 1
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/20
Angers2
48%28%
Montpellier0
23%
ANGMNT
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.70.5
Non-shot xG1.60.9
5/20
Guingamp1
53%26%
Metz0
21%
GUIMTZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG2.51.1
5/20
Lorient1
33%29%
Bordeaux1
39%
LORBOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.40.7
5/20
Nancy3
35%32%
St Etienne1
33%
NCYSTE
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.00.6
5/20
Toulouse0
48%29%
Dijon FCO0
22%
TOUDIJ
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.50.9
5/20
Lille3
43%31%
Nantes0
27%
LLENAN
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.00.8
Non-shot xG0.91.3
5/20
Rennes2
9%18%
Monaco3
73%
RENMON
Adjusted goals2.13.0
Shot-based xG2.52.7
Non-shot xG1.42.0
5/20
Lyon3
62%22%
Nice3
16%
LYONNCE
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.91.9
Non-shot xG1.60.8
5/20
Marseille1
67%23%
Bastia0
11%
MRSBAS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.1
Non-shot xG1.70.2
5/20
PSG1
90%8%
Caen1
3%
PSGCAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.92.1
Non-shot xG2.41.6
5/17
Monaco2
80%14%
St Etienne0
6%
MONSTE
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.20.3
Non-shot xG1.90.4
5/14
Nantes4
47%29%
Guingamp1
24%
NANGUI
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG1.30.8
See all▾
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
Monaco95 pts
2.5
0.9
30.05.03.0+7695—✓✓
PSG87 pts
2.6
0.8
27.06.05.0+5687—✓—
Nice78 pts
1.6
1.2
22.012.04.0+2778—✓—
Lyon67 pts
2.1
1.1
21.04.013.0+3067———
Marseille62 pts
1.7
1.1
17.011.010.0+1662———
Bordeaux59 pts
1.5
1.1
15.014.09.0+1059———
Nantes51 pts
1.4
1.2
14.09.015.0-1451———
Rennes50 pts
1.2
1.1
12.014.012.0-650———
St Etienne50 pts
1.3
1.2
12.014.012.0-150———
Guingamp50 pts
1.4
1.4
14.08.016.0-750———
Lille46 pts
1.3
1.1
13.07.018.0-746———
Angers46 pts
1.4
1.1
13.07.018.0-946———
Toulouse44 pts
1.1
1.1
10.014.014.0-444———
Metz43 pts
1.2
1.6
11.010.017.0-3343———
Montpellier39 pts
1.4
1.4
10.09.019.0-1839———
Dijon FCO37 pts
1.3
1.4
8.013.017.0-1237———
Caen37 pts
1.3
1.4
10.07.021.0-2937———
Lorient36 pts
1.3
1.4
10.06.022.0-263649%——
Nancy35 pts
1.0
1.3
9.08.021.0-2335✓——
Bastia34 pts
0.8
1.4
8.010.020.0-2634✓——
Forecast from

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