Updated Nov. 17, 2017 at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Ligue 1

2017-18 season

France

Updated Nov. 17, 2017 at 4:40 PM

Upcoming matches
11/18
PSG
88%
10%
Nantes
2%
11/18
Toulouse
57%
27%
Metz
16%
11/18
Strasbourg
34%
28%
Rennes
38%
11/18
Guingamp
40%
28%
Angers
32%
11/18
Dijon FCO
54%
26%
Troyes
20%
11/19
Caen
36%
29%
Nice
35%
11/19
Lyon
66%
22%
Montpellier
12%
11/19
Bordeaux
39%
27%
Marseille
34%
11/20
Amiens
33%
31%
Lille
36%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/17
Amiens1
13%19%
Monaco1
68%
AMIMON
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.11.4
11/17
Lille3
43%30%
St Étienne1
27%
LLESTE
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG0.81.4
Non-shot xG0.70.6
11/5
St Étienne0
29%27%
Lyon5
44%
STELYON
Adjusted goals0.04.3
Shot-based xG1.02.1
Non-shot xG0.81.0
11/5
Metz0
39%30%
Lille3
31%
MTZLLE
Adjusted goals0.02.7
Shot-based xG2.51.4
Non-shot xG1.50.8
11/5
Marseille5
58%25%
Caen0
16%
MRSCAN
Adjusted goals4.80.0
Shot-based xG4.21.2
Non-shot xG2.40.7
11/5
Nice1
52%25%
Dijon FCO0
23%
NCEDIJ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG1.51.2
11/4
Nantes2
45%32%
Toulouse1
23%
NANTOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.8
Non-shot xG1.31.2
11/4
Troyes3
44%27%
Strasbourg0
29%
TRYSTRA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.10.8
Non-shot xG1.01.0
11/4
Montpellier1
62%26%
Amiens1
12%
MNTAMI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG1.30.6
11/4
Monaco6
68%19%
Guingamp0
12%
MONGUI
Adjusted goals6.00.0
Shot-based xG2.60.4
Non-shot xG1.60.6
11/4
Angers0
12%18%
PSG5
70%
ANGPSG
Adjusted goals0.04.9
Shot-based xG1.02.4
Non-shot xG0.81.7
11/3
Rennes1
36%29%
Bordeaux0
35%
RENBOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.4
Non-shot xG0.80.4
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG32 pts
92.1
3.2
0.4
31.15.21.7+8998<1%>99%95%
Monaco29 pts
78.2
2.4
0.8
23.57.27.3+4578<1%80%3%
Lyon25 pts
76.3
2.3
0.8
21.79.86.6+3975<1%67%1%
Marseille24 pts
70.8
2.0
0.9
19.99.19.0+2369<1%37%<1%
Nantes23 pts
59.0
1.4
0.8
15.89.213.0-257<1%5%<1%
Bordeaux16 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
15.210.912.0+556<1%5%<1%
Toulouse15 pts
57.7
1.4
0.9
13.110.514.4-6504%1%<1%
Nice13 pts
61.6
1.7
1.0
13.87.916.3-5495%1%<1%
Angers13 pts
59.9
1.6
1.0
11.613.912.5-4495%<1%<1%
Montpellier16 pts
57.3
1.4
0.9
12.411.414.2-4494%<1%<1%
Rennes15 pts
57.1
1.4
0.9
12.610.115.2-6485%<1%<1%
St Étienne18 pts
55.4
1.4
1.0
12.89.715.5-11485%<1%<1%
Guingamp14 pts
55.0
1.5
1.1
12.59.016.6-14468%<1%<1%
Caen18 pts
52.2
1.3
1.0
13.17.117.8-17468%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO12 pts
55.5
1.5
1.1
11.79.816.4-124511%<1%<1%
Lille12 pts
55.0
1.4
1.0
10.810.017.3-134216%<1%<1%
Troyes15 pts
47.6
1.3
1.2
10.19.418.5-224025%<1%<1%
Amiens12 pts
43.6
1.1
1.2
9.09.919.1-233736%<1%<1%
Strasbourg10 pts
45.9
1.4
1.4
8.410.219.4-283544%<1%<1%
Metz3 pts
45.7
1.3
1.2
7.46.723.9-352971%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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