Updated Jan. 21, 2021, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2020-21

France

Updated Jan. 20, 2021, at 5:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 19-25
1/22
PSG
86%
10%
Montpellier
4%
1/23
Lens
52%
26%
Nice
22%
1/23
Monaco
57%
23%
Marseille
20%
1/24
Bordeaux
42%
31%
Angers
27%
1/24
Metz
42%
30%
Nantes
28%
1/24
Reims
43%
26%
Brest
31%
1/24
Dijon FCO
33%
29%
Strasbourg
38%
1/24
Rennes
32%
30%
Lille
38%
1/24
St Étienne
21%
24%
Lyon
54%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 19-25
1/20
Marseille0
50%27%
Lens1
24%
MRSLNS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.21.8
Non-shot xG0.50.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG42 pts
85.5
2.6
0.6
+6083<1%97%73%
Lyon40 pts
77.0
2.1
0.7
+3474<1%73%13%
Lille42 pts
74.6
1.8
0.6
+3073<1%69%10%
Monaco36 pts
73.5
2.2
0.9
+2168<1%36%3%
Rennes36 pts
67.5
1.7
0.7
+1263<1%14%<1%
Marseille32 pts
64.7
1.6
0.8
+859<1%6%<1%
Lens31 pts
63.4
1.6
0.9
+256<1%3%<1%
Angers30 pts
60.1
1.4
0.8
-754<1%1%<1%
Bordeaux29 pts
61.4
1.5
0.8
+153<1%<1%<1%
Metz28 pts
58.5
1.4
0.9
+051<1%<1%<1%
Montpellier28 pts
55.8
1.6
1.2
-8491%<1%<1%
Brest26 pts
56.7
1.7
1.2
-9482%<1%<1%
Strasbourg23 pts
62.7
1.7
1.0
-3482%<1%<1%
Nice23 pts
53.7
1.5
1.1
-14447%<1%<1%
Reims21 pts
56.3
1.5
1.0
-7438%<1%<1%
St Étienne19 pts
58.6
1.5
1.0
-134212%<1%<1%
Nantes18 pts
54.9
1.4
1.0
-183922%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO14 pts
50.3
1.2
1.0
-243352%<1%<1%
Lorient12 pts
51.6
1.4
1.2
-273357%<1%<1%
Nîmes15 pts
43.6
1.3
1.4
-413073%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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