Updated April 21, 2019, at 5:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated April 21, 2019, at 5:02 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/26
Bordeaux
22%
25%
Lyon
54%
4/28
Lille
59%
24%
Nîmes
17%
4/28
Caen
35%
32%
Dijon FCO
33%
4/28
Amiens
40%
29%
Strasbourg
31%
4/28
Angers
43%
30%
Reims
28%
4/28
St Étienne
64%
23%
Toulouse
13%
4/28
Marseille
51%
27%
Nantes
22%
4/30
Montpellier
20%
22%
PSG
58%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/28
Nice0
47%31%
Guingamp0
22%
NCEGUI
Adjusted goals——
Shot-based xG——
Non-shot xG——
4/21
PSG3
80%13%
Monaco1
6%
PSGMON
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.21.0
Non-shot xG1.81.0
4/21
Reims0
30%29%
St Étienne2
41%
REISTE
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.82.0
Non-shot xG1.30.8
4/21
Nantes3
55%29%
Amiens2
16%
NANAMI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.20.6
Non-shot xG1.40.7
4/21
Toulouse0
31%28%
Lille0
41%
TOULLE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.61.2
Non-shot xG0.81.3
4/20
Nîmes2
41%29%
Bordeaux1
30%
NIMEBOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG0.40.8
4/20
Strasbourg1
42%28%
Montpellier3
30%
STRAMNT
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG0.41.9
Non-shot xG0.41.9
4/20
Nice0
52%32%
Caen1
16%
NCECAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.70.4
Non-shot xG1.50.6
4/20
Guingamp1
32%29%
Marseille3
39%
GUIMRS
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.12.8
Non-shot xG0.51.0
4/19
Lyon2
65%21%
Angers1
15%
LYONANG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
4/19
Dijon FCO3
41%29%
Rennes2
30%
DIJREN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG1.61.4
4/17
Nantes3
24%23%
PSG2
53%
NANPSG
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.21.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG84 pts
87.4
2.9
0.6
30.33.93.7+7595—✓✓
Lille65 pts
71.6
1.8
0.7
21.39.37.3+2873—>99%—
Lyon59 pts
73.5
2.2
0.9
19.69.29.2+1768—74%—
St Étienne56 pts
69.0
1.8
0.8
18.49.310.3+1564—20%—
Marseille54 pts
68.6
1.8
0.8
18.27.412.5+962—7%—
Montpellier51 pts
66.0
1.7
0.8
14.713.310.0+957—<1%—
Reims48 pts
57.5
1.4
0.9
12.516.49.2-454—<1%—
Nice49 pts
59.4
1.3
0.7
14.111.112.7-853—<1%—
Nîmes46 pts
59.3
1.6
1.0
14.58.315.1+052—<1%—
Rennes43 pts
62.1
1.7
1.0
13.011.413.7+050<1%——
Strasbourg44 pts
59.2
1.6
1.0
11.615.411.0+1150—<1%—
Nantes40 pts
65.2
1.6
0.8
12.88.416.8-347<1%——
Angers41 pts
63.1
1.6
0.9
10.515.312.2-247<1%——
Bordeaux38 pts
58.6
1.4
0.9
10.612.415.0-644<1%——
Toulouse36 pts
57.1
1.5
1.0
9.413.415.2-1842<1%——
Monaco32 pts
63.2
1.6
0.9
8.812.416.8-17392%——
Amiens32 pts
53.9
1.3
1.0
9.69.419.0-21386%——
Dijon FCO28 pts
54.3
1.4
1.0
8.48.321.4-263350%——
Caen26 pts
46.9
1.1
1.1
6.312.519.3-243174%——
Guingamp25 pts
52.6
1.3
1.0
6.211.220.6-373092%——
Forecast from
Season

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