Updated Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:25 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated Aug. 12, 2018, at 4:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/17
Reims
21%
24%
Lyon
55%
8/18
Guingamp
11%
17%
PSG
72%
8/18
Monaco
64%
21%
Lille
15%
8/18
Rennes
47%
27%
Angers
25%
8/18
Caen
36%
29%
Nice
35%
8/18
Amiens
39%
30%
Montpellier
31%
8/18
Dijon FCO
43%
27%
Nantes
30%
8/19
Strasbourg
43%
27%
St Étienne
30%
8/19
Toulouse
41%
28%
Bordeaux
31%
8/19
Nîmes
23%
23%
Marseille
55%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/12
PSG3
90%8%
Caen0
2%
PSGCAN
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG2.70.2
Non-shot xG1.70.5
8/12
Bordeaux0
53%26%
Strasbourg2
21%
BORSTRA
Adjusted goals0.01.5
Shot-based xG0.11.3
Non-shot xG0.21.4
8/12
Lyon2
73%18%
Amiens0
9%
LYONAMI
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG1.10.5
8/11
Angers3
49%27%
Nîmes4
24%
ANGNIME
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG2.81.3
Non-shot xG1.81.0
8/11
Montpellier1
49%27%
Dijon FCO2
24%
MNTDIJ
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG2.00.8
8/11
Lille3
38%28%
Rennes1
34%
LLEREN
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.00.5
Non-shot xG2.11.1
8/11
Nice0
55%25%
Reims1
20%
NCEREI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.40.4
8/11
St Étienne2
49%26%
Guingamp1
25%
STEGUI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.3
Non-shot xG1.21.6
8/11
Nantes1
32%27%
Monaco3
41%
NANMON
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG2.10.9
8/10
Marseille4
66%21%
Toulouse0
13%
MRSTOU
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.50.3
Non-shot xG1.01.0
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG3 pts
88.9
2.8
0.4
28.26.03.9+6790<1%96%77%
Lyon3 pts
76.2
2.1
0.7
20.58.78.8+2770<1%52%9%
Marseille3 pts
74.8
2.1
0.8
20.28.59.3+2869<1%48%7%
Monaco3 pts
70.7
2.0
0.9
18.58.810.7+1864<1%34%4%
St Étienne3 pts
61.2
1.7
1.0
14.09.514.5-3518%8%<1%
Nice0 pts
63.7
1.6
0.9
13.89.814.4-1518%8%<1%
Strasbourg3 pts
59.0
1.6
1.0
13.39.714.9-55010%6%<1%
Bordeaux0 pts
62.3
1.6
0.9
13.39.814.9-45010%6%<1%
Rennes0 pts
61.4
1.6
0.9
13.09.915.1-54911%5%<1%
Dijon FCO3 pts
57.5
1.7
1.1
13.29.215.6-84912%5%<1%
Nantes0 pts
60.5
1.5
0.9
12.510.015.5-74713%4%<1%
Lille3 pts
57.0
1.6
1.1
12.79.316.0-94713%4%<1%
Montpellier0 pts
60.7
1.5
0.9
12.310.215.5-74713%4%<1%
Guingamp0 pts
58.2
1.6
1.1
12.29.416.4-94616%4%<1%
Angers0 pts
58.9
1.6
1.0
12.09.716.3-94616%3%<1%
Nîmes3 pts
54.8
1.6
1.2
12.19.216.7-134617%3%<1%
Toulouse0 pts
57.3
1.5
1.0
11.89.816.4-134517%3%<1%
Reims3 pts
54.9
1.5
1.1
11.99.516.6-134518%3%<1%
Caen0 pts
54.5
1.4
1.0
10.710.117.2-164224%2%<1%
Amiens0 pts
53.7
1.4
1.0
10.310.017.7-174127%1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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