Updated April 12, 2021, at 1:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2020-21

France

Updated April 11, 2021, at 4:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 13-19
4/16
Lille
69%
21%
Montpellier
10%
4/17
Angers
33%
32%
Rennes
35%
4/17
Marseille
45%
28%
Lorient
27%
4/18
PSG
80%
14%
St Étienne
6%
4/18
Brest
37%
25%
Lens
38%
4/18
Reims
37%
32%
Metz
31%
4/18
Dijon FCO
31%
28%
Nice
40%
4/18
Nîmes
33%
26%
Strasbourg
41%
4/18
Bordeaux
15%
21%
Monaco
64%
4/18
Nantes
18%
23%
Lyon
58%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 6-12
4/11
Lyon3
72%20%
Angers0
8%
LYONANG
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.61.4
Non-shot xG1.41.3
4/11
Monaco3
87%11%
Dijon FCO0
2%
MONDIJ
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG4.50.7
Non-shot xG1.30.6
4/11
Brest1
47%25%
Nîmes1
28%
BRSNIME
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.20.8
Non-shot xG2.71.1
4/11
Nice0
43%29%
Reims0
29%
NCEREI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG1.61.3
4/11
St Étienne4
45%29%
Bordeaux1
26%
STEBOR
Adjusted goals3.91.1
Shot-based xG3.41.8
Non-shot xG0.51.1
4/11
Lens4
48%26%
Lorient1
26%
LNSLOR
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG3.62.2
Non-shot xG1.61.5
4/11
Rennes1
46%29%
Nantes0
25%
RENNAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.2
Non-shot xG1.70.8
4/10
Montpellier3
39%27%
Marseille3
34%
MNTMRS
Adjusted goals2.93.2
Shot-based xG1.72.3
Non-shot xG1.41.4
4/10
Strasbourg1
17%20%
PSG4
63%
STRAPSG
Adjusted goals1.14.0
Shot-based xG1.22.3
Non-shot xG1.31.6
4/9
Metz0
14%28%
Lille2
58%
MTZLLE
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG2.10.6
Non-shot xG1.00.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG66 pts
83.1
2.5
0.7
+5679—95%45%
Lille69 pts
75.1
1.7
0.5
+3780—91%39%
Monaco65 pts
78.0
2.2
0.7
+3376—60%8%
Lyon64 pts
77.6
2.2
0.7
+3775—54%8%
Lens52 pts
63.7
1.8
1.0
+660—<1%<1%
Marseille49 pts
61.4
1.5
0.9
+558—<1%—
Rennes48 pts
66.1
1.6
0.7
+657—<1%—
Montpellier46 pts
58.2
1.8
1.2
-353<1%——
Nice43 pts
58.2
1.6
1.0
-250<1%——
Metz42 pts
56.5
1.4
1.0
-350<1%——
Angers41 pts
57.8
1.3
0.8
-1448<1%——
Reims40 pts
55.2
1.3
0.9
-247<1%——
St Étienne39 pts
60.6
1.6
0.9
-1346<1%——
Strasbourg36 pts
63.8
1.7
0.9
-745<1%——
Brest36 pts
56.9
1.6
1.1
-13432%——
Bordeaux36 pts
54.8
1.5
1.1
-12433%——
Lorient32 pts
54.8
1.5
1.1
-223917%——
Nîmes30 pts
49.1
1.4
1.3
-323658%——
Nantes28 pts
55.5
1.4
1.0
-183554%——
Dijon FCO15 pts
43.3
1.2
1.3
-3921>99%——
Forecast from
Season

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