Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2019-20 season

France

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 4:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 22-28
10/25
Nantes
46%
27%
Monaco
28%
10/26
Lille
58%
25%
Bordeaux
17%
10/26
Lyon
67%
21%
Metz
12%
10/26
Strasbourg
46%
29%
Nice
25%
10/26
Montpellier
46%
29%
Angers
25%
10/26
Brest
43%
29%
Dijon FCO
28%
10/26
Reims
48%
28%
Nîmes
24%
10/27
Rennes
47%
27%
Toulouse
26%
10/27
St Étienne
48%
29%
Amiens
23%
10/27
PSG
80%
14%
Marseille
6%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
Marseille2
52%27%
Strasbourg0
21%
MRSSTRA
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.50.4
Non-shot xG0.70.9
10/20
Monaco3
50%25%
Rennes2
24%
MONREN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.71.2
Non-shot xG2.60.6
10/20
Bordeaux0
43%29%
St Étienne1
28%
BORSTE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG0.80.3
10/19
Nîmes1
49%27%
Amiens1
24%
NIMEAMI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG0.61.6
10/19
Angers0
58%25%
Brest1
17%
ANGBRS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG2.50.6
10/19
Reims1
40%31%
Montpellier0
29%
REIMNT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG0.61.7
10/19
Metz1
31%30%
Nantes0
39%
MTZNAN
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG0.90.3
Non-shot xG1.40.8
10/19
Toulouse2
29%27%
Lille1
44%
TOULLE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.9
Non-shot xG1.01.8
10/19
Lyon0
66%22%
Dijon FCO0
12%
LYONDIJ
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG2.50.4
10/18
Nice1
13%19%
PSG4
68%
NCEPSG
Adjusted goals1.13.0
Shot-based xG0.83.4
Non-shot xG0.82.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG24 pts
89.8
2.8
0.4
+6691<1%>99%97%
Lille15 pts
67.9
1.8
0.8
+9582%26%<1%
Nantes19 pts
64.2
1.5
0.7
+4582%25%<1%
Lyon10 pts
71.9
1.9
0.8
+19582%27%<1%
Marseille16 pts
64.4
1.7
0.9
+2553%18%<1%
Angers16 pts
63.5
1.6
0.9
+1554%17%<1%
Reims17 pts
61.3
1.4
0.8
+4544%16%<1%
Montpellier14 pts
65.3
1.6
0.8
+3544%15%<1%
Monaco12 pts
64.5
1.9
1.1
-2527%11%<1%
St Étienne14 pts
61.1
1.5
0.9
-6517%9%<1%
Bordeaux15 pts
58.0
1.4
0.9
-1509%7%<1%
Rennes12 pts
59.0
1.5
1.0
-24911%7%<1%
Nice13 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
-94812%5%<1%
Amiens12 pts
57.8
1.4
0.9
-94616%3%<1%
Nîmes10 pts
58.4
1.6
1.0
-74519%4%<1%
Toulouse12 pts
55.8
1.5
1.1
-134520%3%<1%
Strasbourg9 pts
58.3
1.5
0.9
-104421%3%<1%
Brest14 pts
51.6
1.4
1.2
-164326%2%<1%
Metz11 pts
53.1
1.4
1.1
-164231%2%<1%
Dijon FCO9 pts
53.8
1.3
1.0
-164037%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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