Updated 10:10 PM EDT | May 27, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Ligue 1
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/20
Angers2
48%28%
Montpellier0
23%
ANGMNT
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.70.5
Non-shot xG1.60.9
5/20
Guingamp1
53%26%
Metz0
21%
GUIMTZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG2.51.1
5/20
Lorient1
33%29%
Bordeaux1
39%
LORBOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.40.7
5/20
Nancy3
35%32%
St Etienne1
33%
NCYSTE
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.00.6
5/20
Toulouse0
48%29%
Dijon FCO0
22%
TOUDIJ
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.50.9
5/20
Lille3
43%31%
Nantes0
27%
LLENAN
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.00.8
Non-shot xG0.91.3
5/20
Rennes2
9%18%
Monaco3
73%
RENMON
Adjusted goals2.13.0
Shot-based xG2.52.7
Non-shot xG1.42.0
5/20
Lyon3
62%22%
Nice3
16%
LYONNCE
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.91.9
Non-shot xG1.60.8
5/20
Marseille1
67%23%
Bastia0
11%
MRSBAS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.1
Non-shot xG1.70.2
5/20
PSG1
90%8%
Caen1
3%
PSGCAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.92.1
Non-shot xG2.41.6
5/17
Monaco2
80%14%
St Etienne0
6%
MONSTE
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.20.3
Non-shot xG1.90.4
5/14
Nantes4
47%29%
Guingamp1
24%
NANGUI
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG1.30.8
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
Monaco95 pts
2.5
0.9
30.05.03.0+7695
PSG87 pts
2.6
0.8
27.06.05.0+5687
Nice78 pts
1.6
1.2
22.012.04.0+2778
Lyon67 pts
2.1
1.1
21.04.013.0+3067
Marseille62 pts
1.7
1.1
17.011.010.0+1662
Bordeaux59 pts
1.5
1.1
15.014.09.0+1059
Nantes51 pts
1.4
1.2
14.09.015.0-1451
Rennes50 pts
1.2
1.1
12.014.012.0-650
St Etienne50 pts
1.3
1.2
12.014.012.0-150
Guingamp50 pts
1.4
1.4
14.08.016.0-750
Lille46 pts
1.3
1.1
13.07.018.0-746
Angers46 pts
1.4
1.1
13.07.018.0-946
Toulouse44 pts
1.1
1.1
10.014.014.0-444
Metz43 pts
1.2
1.6
11.010.017.0-3343
Montpellier39 pts
1.4
1.4
10.09.019.0-1839
Dijon FCO37 pts
1.3
1.4
8.013.017.0-1237
Caen37 pts
1.3
1.4
10.07.021.0-2937
Lorient36 pts
1.3
1.4
10.06.022.0-263649%
Nancy35 pts
1.0
1.3
9.08.021.0-2335
Bastia34 pts
0.8
1.4
8.010.020.0-2634
Forecast from

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