Updated Jan. 23, 2018 at 4:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Ligue 1

2017-18 season

France

Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 5:07 PM

Upcoming matches
1/26
Dijon FCO
38%
28%
Rennes
35%
1/27
PSG
86%
11%
Montpellier
3%
1/27
St Étienne
38%
31%
Caen
31%
1/27
Toulouse
50%
28%
Troyes
22%
1/27
Metz
34%
29%
Nice
37%
1/27
Guingamp
40%
32%
Nantes
27%
1/27
Angers
56%
28%
Amiens
16%
1/28
Lille
49%
27%
Strasbourg
24%
1/28
Bordeaux
27%
27%
Lyon
47%
1/28
Marseille
50%
25%
Monaco
25%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
1/21
Lyon2
22%21%
PSG1
56%
LYONPSG
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG0.50.6
Non-shot xG0.61.1
1/21
Monaco3
75%17%
Metz1
8%
MONMTZ
Adjusted goals2.51.1
Shot-based xG2.20.1
Non-shot xG2.00.2
1/21
Nice1
59%25%
St Étienne0
16%
NCESTE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.30.4
Non-shot xG0.40.4
1/20
Troyes1
43%29%
Lille0
28%
TRYLLE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.4
Non-shot xG1.01.8
1/20
Montpellier2
48%32%
Toulouse1
20%
MNTTOU
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.30.4
1/20
Amiens3
33%32%
Guingamp1
35%
AMIGUI
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG0.90.6
1/20
Strasbourg3
41%25%
Dijon FCO2
34%
STRADIJ
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.71.3
Non-shot xG0.80.7
1/20
Rennes1
45%29%
Angers0
26%
RENANG
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG0.90.3
1/20
Nantes0
47%30%
Bordeaux1
22%
NANBOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.70.4
Non-shot xG1.10.4
1/19
Caen0
26%28%
Marseille2
46%
CANMRS
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG0.22.2
Non-shot xG0.50.8
1/17
PSG8
90%7%
Dijon FCO0
2%
PSGDIJ
Adjusted goals7.80.0
Shot-based xG4.50.2
Non-shot xG2.80.4
1/17
Angers3
52%28%
Troyes1
20%
ANGTRY
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG2.00.4
Non-shot xG1.00.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG56 pts
91.4
3.2
0.5
30.94.13.0+8697<1%>99%98%
Lyon48 pts
76.5
2.2
0.7
23.49.65.0+4480<1%81%<1%
Marseille47 pts
76.3
2.1
0.6
22.98.86.3+3678<1%69%<1%
Monaco46 pts
74.1
2.2
0.8
22.37.68.1+3975<1%49%<1%
Nantes34 pts
58.8
1.3
0.8
15.98.713.4-156<1%<1%<1%
Nice34 pts
60.5
1.5
0.9
15.68.513.9-455<1%<1%<1%
Rennes31 pts
59.2
1.4
0.9
14.88.414.8-453<1%<1%<1%
Montpellier31 pts
60.7
1.4
0.7
12.614.710.7+453<1%<1%<1%
Guingamp29 pts
55.2
1.4
1.0
13.09.515.5-9492%<1%<1%
Bordeaux26 pts
58.2
1.4
0.9
12.69.416.0-9474%<1%<1%
Caen27 pts
54.2
1.3
0.9
12.77.717.6-15466%<1%<1%
Angers22 pts
58.4
1.5
0.9
9.814.513.7-8449%<1%<1%
Strasbourg27 pts
48.3
1.4
1.3
11.310.016.8-194412%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO25 pts
51.8
1.6
1.3
11.78.118.2-204313%<1%<1%
Amiens25 pts
47.6
1.2
1.1
11.08.218.8-134118%<1%<1%
Troyes24 pts
50.1
1.3
1.1
11.07.319.7-174023%<1%<1%
Lille22 pts
51.8
1.3
1.0
10.68.319.1-204025%<1%<1%
Toulouse20 pts
55.1
1.4
1.0
10.19.418.5-154026%<1%<1%
St Étienne23 pts
48.0
1.3
1.1
9.99.218.9-273935%<1%<1%
Metz15 pts
49.3
1.3
1.2
8.27.222.6-293275%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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