Updated Apr. 21, 2018 at 4:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

league-logo

Ligue 1

2017-18 season

France

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 3:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/22
Nice
45%
30%
Montpellier
25%
4/22
St Étienne
61%
25%
Troyes
14%
4/22
Bordeaux
14%
19%
PSG
67%
4/25
Caen
39%
31%
Toulouse
31%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/21
Guingamp3
24%23%
Monaco1
53%
GUIMON
Adjusted goals2.51.1
Shot-based xG3.00.2
Non-shot xG1.90.5
4/21
Amiens3
43%28%
Strasbourg1
29%
AMISTRA
Adjusted goals2.41.1
Shot-based xG0.82.1
Non-shot xG0.41.5
4/21
Metz1
42%27%
Caen1
31%
MTZCAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.5
Non-shot xG2.20.4
4/21
Toulouse2
38%31%
Angers0
30%
TOUANG
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.50.8
Non-shot xG0.70.4
4/21
Marseille5
78%16%
Lille1
7%
MRSLLE
Adjusted goals5.31.1
Shot-based xG3.61.2
Non-shot xG2.11.8
4/20
Dijon FCO2
23%23%
Lyon5
54%
DIJLYON
Adjusted goals2.14.8
Shot-based xG0.82.4
Non-shot xG1.22.1
4/20
Nantes1
41%31%
Rennes1
28%
NANREN
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.70.6
Non-shot xG0.81.3
4/15
PSG7
73%16%
Monaco1
11%
PSGMON
Adjusted goals6.81.1
Shot-based xG3.21.7
Non-shot xG2.11.0
4/15
Troyes2
16%23%
Marseille3
61%
TRYMRS
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG1.01.6
4/15
Montpellier1
48%32%
Bordeaux3
21%
MNTBOR
Adjusted goals1.13.0
Shot-based xG1.91.1
Non-shot xG2.00.7
4/14
Nantes1
50%26%
Dijon FCO1
23%
NANDIJ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.6
Non-shot xG1.31.7
4/14
Strasbourg0
35%27%
St Étienne1
38%
STRASTE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.40.3
Non-shot xG0.40.5
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG87 pts
89.9
3.1
0.6
32.03.72.4+90100—✓✓
Monaco70 pts
70.9
2.2
1.0
23.47.96.7+3978—72%—
Lyon69 pts
77.5
2.3
0.7
22.79.85.5+4578—77%—
Marseille69 pts
76.4
2.3
0.8
22.49.95.7+3577—51%—
Rennes48 pts
61.1
1.5
0.8
14.610.013.5+254———
St Étienne46 pts
60.8
1.6
0.9
14.111.312.6-654———
Nice47 pts
61.4
1.6
0.9
14.79.314.0-253———
Montpellier46 pts
60.9
1.4
0.8
11.817.58.7+353———
Nantes46 pts
57.9
1.4
0.9
13.311.113.6-551———
Bordeaux43 pts
60.3
1.5
0.9
13.88.315.9-450<1%——
Guingamp45 pts
54.3
1.5
1.1
12.89.915.4-1248———
Dijon FCO42 pts
54.2
1.6
1.3
12.410.015.6-1847<1%——
Amiens40 pts
47.6
1.2
1.1
11.77.718.6-1143<1%——
Angers37 pts
58.7
1.5
0.9
9.414.114.5-842<1%——
Caen36 pts
50.4
1.3
1.1
11.27.319.5-22412%——
Toulouse33 pts
56.3
1.4
0.9
9.710.417.8-13403%——
Strasbourg34 pts
50.0
1.4
1.3
8.911.018.1-253811%——
Lille29 pts
49.1
1.4
1.2
8.39.020.7-263458%——
Troyes29 pts
45.2
1.2
1.2
8.96.222.9-273375%——
Metz26 pts
47.8
1.4
1.3
7.29.121.7-343191%——
Forecast from
Season

Comments