Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2020-21

France

Updated Oct. 27, 2020, at 5:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/30
Marseille
47%
27%
Lens
26%
10/31
Rennes
56%
24%
Brest
20%
10/31
Nantes
10%
16%
PSG
74%
11/1
St Étienne
40%
28%
Montpellier
32%
11/1
Reims
41%
28%
Strasbourg
32%
11/1
Dijon FCO
39%
27%
Lorient
34%
11/1
Angers
40%
28%
Nice
33%
11/1
Nîmes
40%
29%
Metz
31%
11/1
Monaco
53%
25%
Bordeaux
22%
11/1
Lille
39%
27%
Lyon
34%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/25
Lyon4
54%24%
Monaco1
22%
LYONMON
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG3.32.1
Non-shot xG1.62.4
10/25
Nice1
25%26%
Lille1
49%
NCELLE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.21.1
10/25
Brest0
41%26%
Strasbourg3
33%
BRSSTRA
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG2.30.5
10/25
Montpellier0
50%27%
Reims4
23%
MNTREI
Adjusted goals0.03.4
Shot-based xG0.23.9
Non-shot xG0.23.6
10/25
Metz2
45%29%
St Étienne0
26%
MTZSTE
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG0.40.7
Non-shot xG0.70.8
10/25
Bordeaux2
46%29%
Nîmes0
25%
BORNIME
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG1.90.7
Non-shot xG1.40.6
10/24
PSG4
92%7%
Dijon FCO0
2%
PSGDIJ
Adjusted goals3.40.0
Shot-based xG4.11.7
Non-shot xG1.90.9
10/24
Lorient0
31%26%
Marseille1
43%
LORMRS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.3
Non-shot xG0.71.4
10/23
Rennes1
56%26%
Angers2
18%
RENANG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG1.60.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG18 pts
89.7
3.0
0.5
+7591<1%99%88%
Lille18 pts
73.6
1.9
0.6
+2670<1%54%5%
Lyon13 pts
76.6
2.1
0.7
+2768<1%50%4%
Rennes15 pts
66.9
1.7
0.8
+1160<1%20%<1%
Marseille15 pts
64.6
1.7
0.9
+8591%18%<1%
Monaco11 pts
67.9
2.0
1.0
+7581%17%<1%
Lens13 pts
60.6
1.6
1.0
-1553%11%<1%
Nice14 pts
59.9
1.6
1.0
-1543%9%<1%
Angers13 pts
58.6
1.5
1.0
-11516%5%<1%
Bordeaux12 pts
61.1
1.4
0.8
+0515%4%<1%
Metz11 pts
57.5
1.4
0.9
-4489%3%<1%
Nantes8 pts
58.2
1.5
1.0
-74712%3%<1%
Montpellier11 pts
55.4
1.6
1.1
-104613%2%<1%
Strasbourg6 pts
58.7
1.6
1.0
-134417%1%<1%
Brest9 pts
55.2
1.6
1.2
-194319%1%<1%
St Étienne10 pts
53.9
1.4
1.0
-154318%<1%<1%
Reims5 pts
57.1
1.5
1.0
-84319%1%<1%
Nîmes8 pts
53.2
1.4
1.1
-154222%<1%<1%
Lorient7 pts
52.3
1.5
1.2
-183930%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO2 pts
48.7
1.4
1.2
-313259%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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