Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Ligue 1

2017-18 season

France

Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:47 PM

Upcoming matches
9/29
Monaco
76%
17%
Montpellier
8%
9/30
PSG
80%
14%
Bordeaux
6%
9/30
Rennes
48%
29%
Caen
24%
9/30
Amiens
30%
30%
Lille
40%
9/30
Guingamp
46%
28%
Toulouse
26%
9/30
Dijon FCO
59%
23%
Strasbourg
18%
9/30
Nantes
54%
27%
Metz
19%
10/1
Troyes
33%
29%
St Étienne
37%
10/1
Angers
36%
26%
Lyon
38%
10/1
Nice
43%
26%
Marseille
31%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/24
Marseille2
54%26%
Toulouse0
20%
MRSTOU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.50.7
Non-shot xG3.00.7
9/24
Strasbourg1
30%29%
Nantes2
41%
STRANAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.90.5
Non-shot xG2.40.4
9/24
St Étienne2
45%29%
Rennes2
26%
STEREN
Adjusted goals2.11.7
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG1.20.3
9/23
Caen1
62%24%
Amiens0
14%
CANAMI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.0
Non-shot xG0.90.2
9/23
Metz0
50%27%
Troyes1
23%
MTZTRY
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.7
Non-shot xG1.00.8
9/23
Lyon3
66%20%
Dijon FCO3
14%
LYONDIJ
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG3.21.6
Non-shot xG0.81.0
9/23
Bordeaux3
55%26%
Guingamp1
19%
BORGUI
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG3.11.2
Non-shot xG1.51.2
9/23
Montpellier0
10%17%
PSG0
72%
MNTPSG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.20.6
Non-shot xG0.42.0
9/22
Lille0
20%23%
Monaco4
57%
LLEMON
Adjusted goals0.04.1
Shot-based xG1.12.4
Non-shot xG1.10.3
9/22
Nice2
51%27%
Angers2
22%
NCEANG
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.6
Non-shot xG1.41.0
9/17
PSG2
78%14%
Lyon0
8%
PSGLYON
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG2.20.9
9/17
Angers0
60%24%
Metz1
16%
ANGMTZ
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.11.8
Non-shot xG1.00.9
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG19 pts
90.5
3.0
0.4
30.05.42.5+7996<1%>99%85%
Monaco18 pts
79.7
2.5
0.8
24.96.17.0+4781<1%84%13%
Lyon12 pts
71.0
2.1
0.9
18.310.39.4+2165<1%30%<1%
Bordeaux15 pts
68.1
1.8
0.8
17.910.99.2+1665<1%27%<1%
Marseille13 pts
68.3
1.9
0.8
18.08.711.3+1263<1%22%<1%
Nice10 pts
66.1
1.8
0.9
16.28.713.1+9571%11%<1%
St Étienne14 pts
58.5
1.5
0.9
14.810.512.7+0552%7%<1%
Nantes13 pts
57.5
1.4
0.9
14.49.514.1-5532%4%<1%
Angers8 pts
61.5
1.6
0.9
12.813.212.0+2523%4%<1%
Guingamp9 pts
57.5
1.5
1.0
13.98.215.9-6505%3%<1%
Caen12 pts
55.7
1.4
0.9
13.38.416.3-8486%2%<1%
Toulouse7 pts
56.8
1.4
0.9
12.89.615.6-8487%2%<1%
Rennes6 pts
58.4
1.5
1.0
12.011.114.8-4478%2%<1%
Montpellier8 pts
56.0
1.4
0.9
11.810.615.7-8469%1%<1%
Dijon FCO5 pts
55.3
1.6
1.2
11.49.716.9-144413%<1%<1%
Lille5 pts
54.1
1.4
1.0
10.510.317.2-164218%<1%<1%
Troyes8 pts
46.9
1.3
1.2
9.59.718.8-223828%<1%<1%
Metz3 pts
49.1
1.3
1.2
9.58.020.5-253734%<1%<1%
Strasbourg4 pts
43.0
1.3
1.4
7.78.422.0-343155%<1%<1%
Amiens6 pts
39.0
1.1
1.3
7.97.522.6-353157%<1%<1%
Forecast from
season

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