Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2019-20 season

France

Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
February 25 - March 2
2/28
Nîmes
30%
29%
Marseille
41%
2/29
PSG
86%
9%
Dijon FCO
4%
2/29
Monaco
58%
25%
Reims
17%
2/29
Toulouse
26%
28%
Rennes
46%
2/29
Amiens
47%
30%
Metz
23%
2/29
Montpellier
41%
30%
Strasbourg
29%
2/29
Brest
39%
29%
Angers
32%
3/1
Nantes
32%
30%
Lille
39%
3/1
Bordeaux
48%
27%
Nice
24%
3/1
Lyon
64%
24%
St Étienne
12%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 18-24
2/23
PSG4
84%12%
Bordeaux3
5%
PSGBOR
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG5.12.2
Non-shot xG3.80.9
2/23
Rennes2
54%28%
Nîmes1
18%
RENNIME
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG2.40.8
2/23
St Étienne1
44%31%
Reims1
25%
STEREI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG0.80.8
2/22
Angers1
42%31%
Montpellier0
27%
ANGMNT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG0.70.9
2/22
Dijon FCO1
31%26%
Monaco1
43%
DIJMON
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.9
Non-shot xG1.11.5
2/22
Strasbourg0
55%27%
Amiens0
19%
STRAAMI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.1
Non-shot xG1.60.6
2/22
Lille3
68%21%
Toulouse0
11%
LLETOU
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG1.60.8
2/22
Marseille1
55%28%
Nantes3
17%
MRSNAN
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG1.60.5
2/21
Metz0
26%28%
Lyon2
46%
MTZLYON
Adjusted goals0.01.5
Shot-based xG0.21.6
Non-shot xG0.31.0
2/21
Nice2
48%25%
Brest2
26%
NCEBRS
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.80.8
Non-shot xG1.10.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG65 pts
88.7
3.2
0.7
+7194>99%>99%
Marseille52 pts
69.6
1.7
0.7
+147190%<1%
Lille43 pts
68.7
1.7
0.7
+1062<1%38%<1%
Rennes44 pts
64.0
1.5
0.8
+761<1%25%<1%
Monaco39 pts
68.1
2.0
1.0
+659<1%16%<1%
Lyon37 pts
73.1
1.8
0.6
+2058<1%16%<1%
Strasbourg38 pts
64.8
1.6
0.8
+455<1%5%<1%
Nantes37 pts
62.3
1.5
0.8
+053<1%3%<1%
Montpellier37 pts
62.2
1.5
0.8
+353<1%3%<1%
Bordeaux35 pts
61.4
1.5
0.9
+752<1%2%<1%
Reims37 pts
60.5
1.4
0.8
+151<1%<1%<1%
Nice37 pts
57.7
1.6
1.1
-351<1%<1%<1%
Angers33 pts
61.9
1.4
0.8
-9481%<1%<1%
Brest34 pts
54.7
1.5
1.2
-7472%<1%<1%
St Étienne29 pts
57.0
1.4
1.0
-184311%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO27 pts
56.4
1.5
1.0
-114116%<1%
Metz28 pts
51.9
1.3
1.0
-164120%<1%
Nîmes27 pts
54.8
1.5
1.1
-184023%<1%
Amiens22 pts
53.2
1.3
1.0
-213656%<1%
Toulouse13 pts
49.0
1.4
1.3
-402598%<1%
Forecast from
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