Updated Dec. 16, 2018, at 1:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Ligue 1

2018-19 season

France

Updated Dec. 16, 2018, at 12:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/16
Lyon
63%
22%
Monaco
16%
12/18
Caen
44%
30%
Toulouse
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/16
Nice1
40%29%
St Étienne1
30%
NCESTE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.5
Non-shot xG1.90.9
12/16
Nîmes2
37%28%
Lille3
35%
NIMELLE
Adjusted goals1.73.2
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.90.2
12/15
Reims2
39%31%
Strasbourg1
30%
REISTRA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.70.5
Non-shot xG1.30.6
12/9
Lille1
59%27%
Reims1
14%
LLEREI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG1.00.9
12/9
Strasbourg2
51%29%
Caen2
21%
STRACAN
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.80.4
Non-shot xG1.10.6
12/8
Guingamp1
50%29%
Amiens2
22%
GUIAMI
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG2.00.8
12/8
Rennes2
50%27%
Dijon FCO0
24%
RENDIJ
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG1.10.5
12/5
Strasbourg1
15%20%
PSG1
65%
STRAPSG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.02.3
Non-shot xG0.53.3
12/5
Nantes3
33%28%
Marseille2
39%
NANMRS
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.20.8
12/5
Dijon FCO2
47%27%
Guingamp1
26%
DIJGUI
Adjusted goals2.10.8
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG0.61.6
12/5
Reims0
44%31%
Toulouse1
26%
REITOU
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.71.4
Non-shot xG1.40.4
12/5
Caen1
43%30%
Nîmes2
27%
CANNIME
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.22.3
Non-shot xG0.82.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Ligue 1win league
PSG44 pts
89.9
3.0
0.5
30.75.32.0+8198<1%>99%>99%
Lyon28 pts
72.6
2.1
0.8
18.79.49.9+1766<1%55%<1%
Lille34 pts
64.4
1.7
0.9
17.79.510.8+1363<1%40%<1%
Marseille26 pts
66.9
1.8
0.9
17.47.712.9+960<1%28%<1%
Montpellier29 pts
65.7
1.6
0.7
15.911.211.0+1159<1%23%<1%
St Étienne27 pts
64.8
1.8
0.9
15.311.611.1+557<1%18%<1%
Nice26 pts
64.1
1.5
0.8
14.711.112.2-255<1%10%<1%
Rennes23 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
14.310.713.0+0541%8%<1%
Nîmes23 pts
59.7
1.6
1.0
13.210.514.2-1502%4%<1%
Bordeaux21 pts
61.9
1.5
0.9
12.512.213.4-3504%4%<1%
Reims25 pts
57.6
1.4
0.9
12.012.913.1-8493%2%<1%
Strasbourg23 pts
60.5
1.5
0.9
11.713.612.7+2493%2%<1%
Nantes20 pts
62.7
1.6
0.9
12.610.914.5-3494%3%<1%
Angers18 pts
59.0
1.5
0.9
11.012.214.8-64510%1%<1%
Toulouse18 pts
55.0
1.4
1.0
10.212.015.8-184318%<1%<1%
Monaco13 pts
61.6
1.6
0.9
10.79.917.3-104217%<1%<1%
Dijon FCO16 pts
56.0
1.5
1.0
10.29.518.3-204027%<1%<1%
Amiens16 pts
51.7
1.3
1.1
10.56.920.6-233834%<1%<1%
Caen14 pts
53.5
1.3
1.0
7.814.016.2-143737%<1%<1%
Guingamp8 pts
54.6
1.5
1.1
7.210.620.2-303266%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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