| Team rating | chance of finishing group | round-by-round probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | group | spi | off. | def. | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | make round of 16 | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |
 Portland7 pts | F | 39.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |
 Orlando City7 pts | A | 39.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | |
 Philadelphia7 pts | A | 44.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | |
 Minnesota5 pts | D | 41.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | |
 San Jose7 pts | B | 40.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |
 Sporting KC6 pts | D | 42.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |
 LAFC5 pts | F | 57.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |
 NYCFC3 pts | A | 44.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | |
 Columbus9 pts | E | 42.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 FC Cincinnati6 pts | E | 24.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Toronto FC5 pts | C | 44.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 New England5 pts | C | 38.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Real Salt Lake4 pts | D | 36.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Seattle4 pts | B | 42.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Montréal3 pts | C | 32.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Vancouver3 pts | B | 23.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | — | — | |
 Chicago3 pts | B | 40.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 NY Red Bulls3 pts | E | 38.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | |
 D.C. United2 pts | C | 32.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Houston2 pts | F | 33.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | |
 LA Galaxy1 pt | F | 40.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Colorado1 pt | D | 35.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Atlanta0 pts | E | 43.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Inter Miami0 pts | A | 42.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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