Updated July 6, 2020, at 6:04 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2020 season

USA

Updated March 9, 2020, at 12:59 a.m.

Upcoming matches
Group stage
7/8
Orlando City
27%
24%
Inter Miami
49%
7/8
Nashville
22%
24%
Chicago
53%
7/9
NYCFC
37%
24%
Philadelphia
39%
7/9
Montreal
32%
23%
New England
45%
7/9
FC Dallas
56%
23%
Vancouver
22%
7/10
Toronto FC
51%
24%
D.C. United
25%
7/10
Seattle
46%
23%
San Jose
31%
7/11
Atlanta
46%
24%
NY Red Bulls
30%
7/11
FC Cincinnati
21%
24%
Columbus
55%
7/12
Sporting KC
35%
23%
Minnesota
42%
7/12
Real Salt Lake
39%
27%
Colorado
34%
7/13
LAFC
63%
19%
Houston
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/8
LAFC3
63%19%
Philadelphia3
18%
LAFCPHI
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG2.71.2
Non-shot xG2.80.9
3/8
Portland1
67%20%
Nashville0
13%
PRTNSH
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.21.1
Non-shot xG0.92.2
3/7
Seattle1
58%23%
Columbus1
19%
SEACLB
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.10.9
Non-shot xG1.71.2
3/7
LA Galaxy0
78%13%
Vancouver1
9%
LAGVAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.4
Non-shot xG1.20.5
3/7
Colorado2
57%21%
Orlando City1
22%
CLRORL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG0.70.9
3/7
Sporting KC4
56%22%
Houston0
23%
SKCHOU
Adjusted goals4.00.0
Shot-based xG2.70.7
Non-shot xG1.20.9
3/7
San Jose2
51%23%
Minnesota5
26%
SANMNU
Adjusted goals2.15.2
Shot-based xG2.32.5
Non-shot xG1.51.6
3/7
Atlanta2
82%13%
FC Cincinnati1
5%
ATLCIN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.5
Non-shot xG0.51.0
3/7
Toronto FC1
53%23%
NYCFC0
24%
TORNYC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.90.6
Non-shot xG1.91.1
3/7
D.C. United2
42%26%
Inter Miami1
33%
DCUMIA
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG1.31.4
Non-shot xG0.91.8
3/7
FC Dallas2
62%21%
Montreal2
17%
DALMTL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.81.8
Non-shot xG2.40.5
3/7
Real Salt Lake1
50%26%
NY Red Bulls1
24%
RSLNWY
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.90.2
Non-shot xG1.90.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
LAFC4 pts
Western
57.0
2.0
1.5
+326695%47%32%25%
Toronto FC4 pts
Eastern
46.7
1.5
1.5
+155783%20%9%9%
Atlanta6 pts
Eastern
46.3
1.4
1.4
+125781%20%9%9%
Philadelphia1 pt
Eastern
46.0
1.5
1.5
+125474%14%5%7%
Seattle4 pts
Western
44.1
1.4
1.5
+85373%9%5%5%
Minnesota6 pts
Western
42.0
1.4
1.6
+125579%13%7%5%
NYCFC0 pts
Eastern
44.9
1.4
1.5
+105269%10%4%5%
Inter Miami0 pts
Eastern
44.3
1.4
1.4
+85165%9%3%5%
Chicago1 pt
Eastern
42.1
1.4
1.6
+54960%7%3%3%
FC Dallas4 pts
Western
40.7
1.4
1.6
+55065%6%3%3%
Columbus4 pts
Eastern
38.7
1.1
1.4
+34961%7%2%3%
LA Galaxy1 pt
Western
42.1
1.7
1.9
+24857%4%2%3%
Sporting KC6 pts
Western
39.1
1.4
1.7
+55066%6%3%3%
NY Red Bulls4 pts
Eastern
39.3
1.4
1.7
+04855%6%2%3%
Colorado6 pts
Western
37.3
1.3
1.8
-24959%5%2%2%
Real Salt Lake2 pts
Western
38.1
1.0
1.3
+14753%3%1%2%
Portland3 pts
Western
38.2
1.4
1.7
-54650%3%1%2%
New England1 pt
Eastern
37.9
1.4
1.7
-44442%3%<1%2%
San Jose1 pt
Western
37.5
1.4
1.8
-64443%2%1%1%
D.C. United3 pts
Eastern
33.6
1.1
1.7
-94236%2%<1%<1%
Orlando City1 pt
Eastern
34.1
1.2
1.7
-84134%2%<1%<1%
Montreal4 pts
Eastern
31.9
1.1
1.8
-114132%2%<1%<1%
Houston1 pt
Western
33.3
1.2
1.7
-134031%1%<1%<1%
Nashville0 pts
Western
27.5
0.9
1.7
-193415%<1%<1%<1%
Vancouver3 pts
Western
25.0
0.9
1.9
-253414%<1%<1%<1%
FC Cincinnati0 pts
Eastern
23.8
0.9
2.0
-28297%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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