Updated May 9, 2021, at 5:11 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2021

USA

Updated May 9, 2021, at 5:11 p.m.

Upcoming matches
May 4-10
5/9
Sporting KC
58%
24%
Austin FC
18%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May 4-10
5/9
Portland1
39%24%
Seattle2
37%
PRTSEA
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG2.40.9
5/9
Inter Miami1
51%26%
Atlanta1
24%
MIAATL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG1.71.2
5/8
Colorado3
49%23%
Minnesota2
29%
CLRMNU
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.41.5
Non-shot xG1.50.9
5/8
LA Galaxy2
32%21%
LAFC1
47%
LAGLAFC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG0.92.2
5/8
Orlando City1
37%24%
NYCFC1
39%
ORLNYC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.6
Non-shot xG1.20.7
5/8
FC Dallas1
53%23%
Houston1
24%
DALHOU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG1.50.8
5/8
Vancouver2
38%25%
Montreal0
37%
VANMTL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG0.91.7
5/8
Nashville2
40%28%
New England0
32%
NSHNWE
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.11.4
5/8
Columbus3
60%23%
D.C. United1
17%
CLBDCU
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG0.41.0
Non-shot xG0.71.4
5/8
Chicago0
39%23%
Philadelphia2
38%
CHIPHI
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.71.9
Non-shot xG2.12.4
5/8
NY Red Bulls2
49%24%
Toronto FC0
28%
NWYTOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.3
Non-shot xG1.80.7
5/7
Real Salt Lake1
48%25%
San Jose2
27%
RSLSAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.7
Non-shot xG1.61.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Seattle10 pts
Western
50.1
1.5
1.3
+266393%38%24%16%
NYCFC7 pts
Eastern
53.6
1.7
1.4
+266191%35%19%16%
LAFC5 pts
Western
50.7
1.7
1.5
+195884%20%12%11%
Philadelphia4 pts
Eastern
48.1
1.5
1.4
+125476%14%6%8%
New England7 pts
Eastern
44.5
1.4
1.4
+75374%13%6%6%
Inter Miami5 pts
Eastern
41.4
1.3
1.5
+65063%8%3%4%
Orlando City6 pts
Eastern
41.5
1.3
1.5
+75064%7%3%4%
Sporting KC4 pts
Western
40.4
1.3
1.6
+24960%7%3%3%
Portland3 pts
Western
41.4
1.4
1.7
+04755%5%2%3%
NY Red Bulls6 pts
Eastern
39.8
1.3
1.6
+24754%5%2%3%
Colorado7 pts
Western
38.4
1.3
1.7
+04858%6%2%3%
FC Dallas5 pts
Western
39.5
1.3
1.5
+24754%4%2%3%
San Jose9 pts
Western
36.9
1.3
1.8
+34961%6%3%3%
Atlanta5 pts
Eastern
38.0
1.1
1.5
+24754%5%2%3%
Columbus5 pts
Eastern
38.0
1.2
1.5
+04650%4%2%2%
Nashville6 pts
Eastern
37.4
1.0
1.4
+04648%3%1%2%
LA Galaxy9 pts
Western
34.4
1.3
1.9
-54753%5%2%2%
Houston5 pts
Western
35.7
1.2
1.7
-14649%3%1%2%
Real Salt Lake6 pts
Western
34.4
1.0
1.5
-34648%4%2%2%
Toronto FC1 pt
Eastern
37.0
1.3
1.7
-54340%2%<1%2%
Minnesota0 pts
Western
37.7
1.4
1.8
-74135%2%<1%2%
Chicago1 pt
Eastern
37.8
1.4
1.8
-84234%2%<1%1%
Austin FC6 pts
Western
30.7
0.9
1.6
-74338%2%<1%1%
Montreal5 pts
Eastern
31.0
1.2
1.9
-114027%1%<1%<1%
D.C. United3 pts
Eastern
29.1
1.0
1.8
-183618%<1%<1%<1%
Vancouver7 pts
Western
24.1
0.8
1.8
-203514%<1%<1%<1%
FC Cincinnati1 pt
Eastern
23.2
0.8
1.8
-29308%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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