Updated Sept. 22, 2019, at 10:00 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2019 season

USA

Updated Sept. 22, 2019, at 10:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
September 24-30
9/25
NYCFC
49%
23%
Atlanta
27%
9/25
Minnesota
52%
23%
Sporting KC
25%
9/25
Real Salt Lake
51%
23%
LA Galaxy
26%
9/25
Portland
58%
21%
New England
21%
9/25
LAFC
83%
11%
Houston
6%
9/25
San Jose
51%
22%
Philadelphia
27%
9/29
Columbus
44%
25%
Philadelphia
31%
9/29
NY Red Bulls
62%
21%
D.C. United
18%
9/29
Chicago
56%
22%
Toronto FC
22%
9/29
Montreal
32%
24%
Atlanta
44%
9/29
New England
39%
23%
NYCFC
38%
9/29
FC Cincinnati
38%
25%
Orlando City
36%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
September 17-23
9/22
D.C. United2
45%25%
Seattle0
31%
DCUSEA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.41.1
Non-shot xG1.92.4
9/22
NY Red Bulls2
49%22%
Philadelphia0
29%
NWYPHI
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.20.7
Non-shot xG1.51.8
9/22
FC Dallas1
48%24%
NYCFC1
29%
DALNYC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG2.21.7
9/22
Portland0
55%22%
Minnesota0
23%
PRTMNU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.31.3
Non-shot xG3.71.5
9/21
LAFC1
76%14%
Toronto FC1
10%
LAFCTOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.4
Non-shot xG2.61.1
9/21
LA Galaxy2
63%19%
Montreal1
19%
LAGMTL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.91.4
Non-shot xG3.51.2
9/21
Sporting KC2
61%20%
Colorado3
19%
SKCCLR
Adjusted goals2.12.5
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.02.3
9/21
Houston2
49%24%
Orlando City1
27%
HOUORL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG2.71.0
9/21
FC Cincinnati0
28%23%
Chicago0
48%
CINCHI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.9
Non-shot xG0.82.5
9/21
New England0
49%24%
Real Salt Lake0
26%
NWERSL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.4
Non-shot xG2.00.5
9/21
Vancouver1
37%26%
Columbus1
37%
VANCLB
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.8
Non-shot xG0.80.9
9/21
Atlanta3
58%21%
San Jose1
21%
ATLSAN
Adjusted goals2.31.1
Shot-based xG2.40.4
Non-shot xG2.20.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
LAFC65 pts
Western
61.5
2.1
1.3
+4972>99%54%
NYCFC58 pts
Eastern
47.2
1.5
1.5
+196275%<1%14%
Atlanta54 pts
Eastern
49.6
1.6
1.4
+175922%12%
Philadelphia52 pts
Eastern
45.4
1.5
1.5
+10563%5%
LA Galaxy48 pts
Western
42.8
1.7
1.9
+253>99%3%
Minnesota49 pts
Western
39.4
1.3
1.6
+953>99%2%
Seattle50 pts
Western
40.5
1.3
1.6
+153>99%2%
Real Salt Lake47 pts
Western
39.1
1.1
1.3
+65298%2%
NY Red Bulls47 pts
Eastern
43.6
1.5
1.6
+6502%
Toronto FC46 pts
Eastern
42.9
1.4
1.6
+4491%
San Jose44 pts
Western
41.9
1.5
1.7
+24971%1%
Portland44 pts
Western
40.9
1.4
1.6
+24973%<1%
FC Dallas45 pts
Western
39.7
1.3
1.6
+54858%<1%
D.C. United48 pts
Eastern
34.6
1.2
1.7
+451<1%
New England41 pts
Eastern
35.6
1.3
1.8
-94468%<1%
Chicago38 pts
Eastern
43.6
1.4
1.5
+64121%<1%
Orlando City36 pts
Eastern
33.1
1.1
1.7
-5395%<1%
Montreal37 pts
Eastern
30.4
1.1
1.8
-16405%<1%
Sporting KC37 pts
Western
39.5
1.4
1.7
-1241<1%<1%
Columbus35 pts
Eastern
37.5
1.1
1.5
-1037<1%<1%
Colorado39 pts
Western
35.0
1.3
1.8
-841<1%<1%
Houston37 pts
Western
33.7
1.2
1.8
-1240<1%<1%
Vancouver31 pts
Western
23.5
0.9
2.0
-2433
FC Cincinnati22 pts
Eastern
22.6
0.9
2.0
-4524
Forecast from
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