Updated March 19, 2019, at 2:29 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2019 season

USA

Updated March 18, 2019, at 1:15 p.m.

Upcoming matches
3/23
FC Dallas
69%
21%
Colorado
10%
3/23
NY Red Bulls
79%
15%
Orlando City
6%
3/23
Philadelphia
51%
26%
Columbus
23%
3/23
LAFC
61%
21%
Real Salt Lake
18%
3/24
New England
56%
25%
FC Cincinnati
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/17
Colorado1
27%25%
Sporting KC1
48%
CLRSKC
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.00.7
3/17
Toronto FC3
59%22%
New England2
19%
TORNWE
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.91.2
Non-shot xG1.41.2
3/17
Atlanta1
60%23%
Philadelphia1
18%
ATLPHI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG1.31.2
3/17
FC Cincinnati3
40%25%
Portland0
34%
CINPRT
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG1.50.9
3/17
NYCFC2
52%23%
LAFC2
24%
NYCLAFC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.42.8
Non-shot xG1.41.2
3/16
LA Galaxy3
57%20%
Minnesota2
23%
LAGMNU
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG2.41.3
Non-shot xG2.10.9
3/16
D.C. United5
54%24%
Real Salt Lake0
23%
DCURSL
Adjusted goals4.30.0
Shot-based xG3.60.6
Non-shot xG2.30.4
3/16
Orlando City1
40%27%
Montreal3
33%
ORLMTL
Adjusted goals1.12.9
Shot-based xG2.21.5
Non-shot xG1.31.7
3/16
NY Red Bulls4
81%14%
San Jose1
5%
NWYSAN
Adjusted goals3.31.1
Shot-based xG3.70.8
Non-shot xG2.50.6
3/16
Houston3
56%22%
Vancouver2
22%
HOUVAN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.71.1
Non-shot xG2.01.8
3/16
Columbus1
55%26%
FC Dallas0
19%
CLBDAL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG0.90.9
3/16
Chicago2
38%26%
Seattle4
36%
CHISEA
Adjusted goals2.13.7
Shot-based xG3.02.5
Non-shot xG1.91.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
NY Red Bulls4 pts
Eastern
52.1
1.5
1.2
17.48.48.1+236191%30%18%17%
LAFC7 pts
Western
46.7
1.6
1.5
16.67.89.6+175890%24%12%10%
Seattle9 pts
Western
45.4
1.4
1.4
16.87.210.0+175890%24%12%10%
Sporting KC4 pts
Western
46.6
1.4
1.4
15.78.210.1+155586%18%9%9%
Atlanta2 pts
Eastern
48.1
1.4
1.3
14.59.310.2+115376%10%5%7%
D.C. United7 pts
Eastern
43.8
1.4
1.5
15.28.510.4+145478%13%7%6%
Toronto FC6 pts
Eastern
43.9
1.5
1.6
15.77.111.2+95478%13%7%6%
Columbus7 pts
Eastern
42.5
1.2
1.3
14.79.110.3+85376%11%6%6%
NYCFC3 pts
Eastern
44.1
1.4
1.5
13.210.410.5+75066%6%3%4%
Montreal6 pts
Eastern
40.7
1.2
1.4
14.37.811.9+55169%8%4%4%
FC Dallas4 pts
Western
40.3
1.2
1.4
13.48.611.9+54970%7%3%4%
LA Galaxy6 pts
Western
39.6
1.5
1.8
14.16.713.2+04970%8%3%3%
Philadelphia1 pt
Eastern
42.2
1.3
1.5
13.08.412.6+24758%5%2%3%
Portland1 pt
Western
39.6
1.4
1.7
12.77.913.4-34660%4%2%2%
Houston7 pts
Western
36.4
1.3
1.7
12.98.113.0-34762%5%2%2%
Real Salt Lake4 pts
Western
36.8
1.3
1.7
12.58.213.3-64659%4%1%2%
Minnesota6 pts
Western
34.0
1.3
1.9
12.76.814.6-44557%4%1%1%
New England1 pt
Eastern
36.6
1.2
1.6
11.18.414.5-64238%2%<1%1%
FC Cincinnati4 pts
Eastern
32.2
1.0
1.6
10.78.614.7-94134%1%<1%<1%
Vancouver0 pts
Western
31.5
1.2
1.9
9.76.817.5-153627%<1%<1%<1%
Chicago1 pt
Eastern
32.2
1.1
1.7
9.38.216.6-163620%<1%<1%<1%
Orlando City2 pts
Eastern
29.8
1.1
1.9
8.58.916.6-203416%<1%<1%<1%
San Jose0 pts
Western
27.5
1.1
2.0
8.56.519.0-273216%<1%<1%<1%
Colorado2 pts
Western
24.5
0.9
1.9
7.58.917.6-243113%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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