Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming matches
7/21
Orlando City
41%
26%
Atlanta
33%
7/22
NYCFC
50%
24%
Chicago
26%
7/22
Minnesota
30%
26%
NY Red Bulls
43%
7/22
D.C. United
44%
26%
Houston
30%
7/22
Toronto FC
53%
26%
Colorado
21%
7/22
Columbus
50%
26%
Philadelphia
24%
7/22
Montreal
40%
27%
FC Dallas
33%
7/22
New England
53%
24%
LA Galaxy
23%
7/22
Real Salt Lake
39%
28%
Sporting KC
33%
7/23
Vancouver
47%
25%
Portland
28%
7/23
Seattle
54%
25%
San Jose
20%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
7/19
Portland1
54%24%
Real Salt Lake4
22%
PRTRSL
Adjusted goals1.14.0
Shot-based xG0.93.1
Non-shot xG1.61.0
7/19
Seattle4
54%25%
D.C. United3
21%
SEADCU
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG1.21.5
7/19
LA Galaxy0
51%25%
Vancouver1
24%
LAGVAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG2.30.7
7/19
Minnesota0
38%26%
Houston0
36%
MNUHOU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.61.7
Non-shot xG0.51.6
7/19
NYCFC2
46%25%
Toronto FC2
28%
NYCTOR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.32.5
Non-shot xG1.41.2
7/19
Montreal2
50%25%
Philadelphia1
25%
MTLPHI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.40.7
Non-shot xG0.60.6
7/19
NY Red Bulls5
54%26%
San Jose1
20%
NWYSAN
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG2.61.0
7/6
Sporting KC1
54%26%
Philadelphia1
19%
SKCPHI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.2
Non-shot xG1.50.6
7/5
Portland2
45%25%
Chicago2
30%
PRTCHI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.10.2
Non-shot xG2.61.0
7/5
Vancouver3
36%26%
NYCFC2
38%
VANNYC
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.32.3
Non-shot xG0.92.0
7/5
Houston3
50%25%
Montreal1
25%
HOUMTL
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.61.3
7/5
Orlando City1
31%26%
Toronto FC3
42%
ORLTOR
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.01.8
Non-shot xG1.20.9
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Toronto FC39 pts
1.3
1.5
Eastern17.49.57.1+2062>99%75%41%16%
Chicago38 pts
1.2
1.7
Eastern17.08.88.2+206098%63%30%12%
FC Dallas31 pts
1.1
1.5
Western14.611.28.1+155596%64%9%11%
Sporting KC32 pts
0.9
1.4
Western13.811.88.4+135394%53%4%10%
NYCFC34 pts
1.3
1.7
Eastern15.87.510.7+145591%29%9%8%
NY Red Bulls29 pts
1.1
1.7
Eastern14.95.813.3+05173%10%2%5%
Atlanta30 pts
1.1
1.7
Eastern15.16.812.1+145281%15%3%5%
Houston29 pts
1.0
1.7
Western13.38.712.0+64980%23%<1%5%
Seattle27 pts
1.0
1.7
Western12.79.611.7+04873%18%<1%4%
Vancouver27 pts
0.9
1.8
Western13.87.113.1-34878%23%<1%4%
Portland27 pts
1.1
1.9
Western11.99.312.9+04555%7%<1%3%
Columbus28 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern14.14.615.3-24749%3%<1%3%
Montreal24 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.710.012.3-24533%2%<1%2%
Orlando City29 pts
0.8
1.9
Eastern12.48.613.0-114637%1%<1%2%
San Jose26 pts
0.7
1.8
Western11.68.713.7-104344%5%<1%2%
LA Galaxy22 pts
1.0
1.9
Western11.17.815.1-74129%3%<1%2%
Philadelphia23 pts
0.9
1.7
Eastern11.38.913.8+24321%<1%<1%2%
Real Salt Lake23 pts
1.0
1.9
Western12.05.416.7-134132%3%<1%2%
New England20 pts
1.1
1.8
Eastern10.78.814.5-14114%<1%<1%1%
Colorado19 pts
0.6
1.7
Western10.85.218.0-133815%1%<1%<1%
D.C. United18 pts
0.9
1.9
Eastern10.06.617.4-19373%<1%<1%<1%
Minnesota19 pts
0.8
2.1
Western8.97.617.5-23344%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

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