Major League Soccer Predictions

Major League Soccer

2022

USA

Updated Sept. 28, 2022, at 12:00 a.m.

		Team rating				avg. simulated season		end-of-season probabilities

team	conference	spi	off.	def.	goal diff.	proj. pts.pts.	Every position	make playoffs	first-round bye	supporters’ shield	win mls cup
Philadelphia64 pts	Eastern	58.8	1.8	1.2	+48	68		✓	97%	49%	37%
LAFC64 pts	Western	53.7	1.7	1.4	+29	67		✓	✓	50%	30%
Montréal59 pts	Eastern	48.7	1.5	1.4	+11	63		✓	3%	<1%	9%
Austin FC55 pts	Western	44.0	1.5	1.6	+19	58		✓	—	—	5%
NYCFC49 pts	Eastern	50.3	1.5	1.3	+15	52		>99%	—	—	5%
NY Red Bulls50 pts	Eastern	45.2	1.2	1.2	+8	53		>99%	—	—	3%
FC Dallas50 pts	Western	40.9	1.2	1.5	+11	53		✓	—	—	2%
Nashville47 pts	Western	45.6	1.4	1.4	+11	50		>99%	—	—	2%
LA Galaxy46 pts	Western	44.6	1.6	1.7	+6	49		95%	—	—	2%
Portland46 pts	Western	40.9	1.5	1.7	+2	48		76%	—	—	<1%
Orlando City45 pts	Eastern	41.3	1.3	1.5	-7	49		90%	—	—	<1%
FC Cincinnati46 pts	Eastern	41.9	1.5	1.7	+7	49		97%	—	—	<1%
Minnesota45 pts	Western	39.4	1.4	1.7	-2	48		87%	—	—	<1%
Columbus42 pts	Eastern	40.7	1.2	1.4	+5	46		45%	—	—	<1%
Inter Miami42 pts	Eastern	36.5	1.3	1.7	-11	46		58%	—	—	<1%
Real Salt Lake43 pts	Western	38.4	1.2	1.5	-4	46		34%	—	—	<1%
Atlanta40 pts	Eastern	45.6	1.5	1.5	-4	43		6%	—	—	<1%
Seattle40 pts	Western	40.3	1.3	1.5	+2	43		5%	—	—	<1%
Vancouver40 pts	Western	34.8	1.2	1.7	-18	42		3%	—	—	<1%
Charlotte FC38 pts	Eastern	35.3	1.1	1.6	-11	41		4%	—	—	<1%
New England38 pts	Eastern	37.9	1.3	1.7	-4	40		<1%	—	—	<1%
Colorado39 pts	Western	37.5	1.3	1.7	-13	41		<1%	—	—	<1%
Sporting KC37 pts	Western	40.6	1.2	1.4	-12	40		—	—	—	—
Chicago35 pts	Eastern	38.5	1.2	1.6	-10	38		—	—	—	—
Toronto FC34 pts	Eastern	36.8	1.4	1.8	-13	36		—	—	—	—
Houston33 pts	Western	33.8	1.2	1.8	-13	35		—	—	—	—
San Jose31 pts	Western	33.9	1.3	1.9	-20	33		—	—	—	—
D.C. United27 pts	Eastern	31.0	1.1	1.8	-32	29		—	—	—	—