Updated Oct. 19, 2017 at 8:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Major League Soccer

2017 season

USA

Updated Oct. 15, 2017 at 9:37 PM

Upcoming matches
10/22
Houston
49%
24%
Chicago
27%
10/22
D.C. United
33%
25%
NY Red Bulls
42%
10/22
Real Salt Lake
45%
28%
Sporting KC
27%
10/22
FC Dallas
57%
24%
LA Galaxy
20%
10/22
San Jose
49%
24%
Minnesota
26%
10/22
Seattle
69%
22%
Colorado
9%
10/22
Montreal
51%
23%
New England
26%
10/22
Philadelphia
54%
25%
Orlando City
21%
10/22
Portland
60%
21%
Vancouver
19%
10/22
NYCFC
53%
24%
Columbus
23%
10/22
Atlanta
42%
25%
Toronto FC
33%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/15
Portland4
61%21%
D.C. United0
18%
PRTDCU
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG4.20.7
Non-shot xG1.90.9
10/15
Vancouver1
59%23%
San Jose1
18%
VANSAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.9
Non-shot xG1.31.4
10/15
Seattle4
55%26%
FC Dallas0
19%
SEADAL
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.70.6
Non-shot xG1.21.1
10/15
Sporting KC0
54%26%
Houston0
20%
SKCHOU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.90.7
Non-shot xG2.50.8
10/15
Colorado1
37%27%
Real Salt Lake0
36%
CLRRSL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.52.3
Non-shot xG0.43.0
10/15
LA Galaxy3
52%23%
Minnesota0
25%
LAGMNU
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG0.81.9
10/15
Orlando City0
44%25%
Columbus1
31%
ORLCLB
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.8
Non-shot xG0.51.4
10/15
New England2
37%25%
NYCFC1
38%
NWENYC
Adjusted goals1.31.1
Shot-based xG3.00.6
Non-shot xG1.80.9
10/15
Toronto FC1
74%16%
Montreal0
10%
TORMTL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.01.9
Non-shot xG1.41.7
10/15
Chicago3
53%24%
Philadelphia2
23%
CHIPHI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG1.21.0
10/15
NY Red Bulls0
49%24%
Atlanta0
27%
NWYATL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG1.90.9
10/11
Houston2
44%28%
Sporting KC1
27%
HOUSKC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG0.71.7
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Toronto FC68 pts
Eastern
47.4
1.5
1.5
20.38.25.4+376928%
Seattle50 pts
Western
39.5
1.1
1.4
13.711.29.1+115272%12%
NYCFC56 pts
Eastern
37.8
1.2
1.6
16.58.29.2+145863%12%
Atlanta54 pts
Eastern
39.7
1.2
1.5
15.49.29.3+305615%11%
Portland50 pts
Western
38.9
1.4
1.7
14.68.211.2+105266%9%
Chicago55 pts
Eastern
34.7
1.2
1.8
16.37.210.5+175613%6%
Sporting KC49 pts
Western
35.7
0.9
1.3
12.313.38.5+12504%6%
Columbus53 pts
Eastern
34.2
1.1
1.6
16.25.212.5+3549%5%
NY Red Bulls47 pts
Eastern
39.1
1.2
1.5
13.48.212.3+5494%
Vancouver52 pts
Western
29.0
1.0
1.8
15.27.211.6+15358%3%
Houston47 pts
Western
33.5
1.1
1.7
12.511.210.3+949<1%3%
FC Dallas43 pts
Western
30.7
1.0
1.7
10.613.210.2-34532%<1%
Real Salt Lake42 pts
Western
35.0
1.2
1.7
12.56.315.3-74411%<1%
San Jose43 pts
Western
22.4
0.8
1.9
12.57.214.3-214557%<1%
New England42 pts
Eastern
29.1
1.1
1.8
12.36.215.5-1043
Philadelphia39 pts
Eastern
30.6
1.0
1.7
10.59.314.2-141
Montreal39 pts
Eastern
30.0
1.1
1.8
11.56.216.3-441
Orlando City39 pts
Eastern
26.2
0.9
1.8
10.29.314.5-1540
Minnesota36 pts
Western
23.0
0.9
2.1
10.36.217.5-2337
Colorado33 pts
Western
21.2
0.6
1.7
9.16.218.7-1833
D.C. United32 pts
Eastern
24.5
0.9
1.9
9.35.219.4-2833
LA Galaxy32 pts
Western
24.9
0.9
1.9
8.28.217.6-1933
Forecast from

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