Updated 4:33 PM EDT | May 22, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming
5/25
Chicago
44%
27%
FC Dallas
29%
5/26
Toronto FC
54%
24%
Columbus
21%
5/27
Seattle
54%
24%
Portland
22%
5/27
Vancouver
52%
25%
D.C. United
23%
5/27
NY Red Bulls
51%
25%
New England
24%
5/27
Real Salt Lake
42%
27%
Philadelphia
31%
5/27
Colorado
37%
30%
Sporting KC
33%
5/27
Minnesota
47%
25%
Orlando City
28%
5/27
San Jose
45%
28%
LA Galaxy
26%
5/28
Atlanta
46%
25%
NYCFC
29%
5/28
FC Dallas
54%
26%
Houston
21%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/21
Orlando City0
45%25%
NYCFC3
30%
ORLNYC
Adjusted goals0.02.8
Shot-based xG1.12.4
Non-shot xG0.81.3
5/21
Minnesota1
41%26%
LA Galaxy2
33%
MNULAG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.80.4
Non-shot xG1.31.0
5/21
New England2
52%24%
Columbus1
24%
NWECLB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG0.51.1
5/20
FC Dallas0
55%27%
San Jose1
18%
DALSAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG2.11.2
5/20
Atlanta4
50%26%
Houston1
24%
ATLHOU
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG1.71.2
Non-shot xG1.31.2
5/20
Vancouver2
37%28%
Sporting KC0
35%
VANSKC
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.71.2
5/20
Philadelphia2
52%27%
Colorado1
21%
PHICLR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG1.10.4
5/20
Seattle1
54%25%
Real Salt Lake0
21%
SEARSL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.5
Non-shot xG1.60.9
5/20
D.C. United0
48%25%
Chicago1
27%
DCUCHI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.52.0
Non-shot xG0.82.1
5/20
Montreal4
49%25%
Portland1
27%
MTLPRT
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.71.0
5/19
NY Red Bulls1
42%27%
Toronto FC1
31%
NWYTOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.8
Non-shot xG1.31.7
5/17
San Jose1
48%27%
Orlando City1
25%
SANORL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG0.81.1
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Toronto FC26 pts
1.2
1.5
Eastern16.210.47.4+155995%66%31%10%
Sporting KC22 pts
0.9
1.5
Western14.79.69.6+125489%48%12%9%
FC Dallas19 pts
0.9
1.5
Western14.510.49.1+105487%47%14%9%
NYCFC20 pts
1.3
1.8
Eastern15.07.511.4+135379%33%10%7%
Seattle13 pts
1.1
1.6
Western12.19.812.1+14659%15%2%6%
Houston19 pts
0.9
1.8
Western13.86.813.4+14868%20%3%5%
Chicago21 pts
1.1
1.8
Eastern14.18.611.3+65171%25%6%5%
LA Galaxy14 pts
1.0
1.7
Western12.68.113.3-14656%14%2%5%
Portland18 pts
1.1
1.9
Western13.18.612.3+24867%19%3%5%
Vancouver16 pts
1.0
1.8
Western13.47.013.6-14763%17%2%4%
New England16 pts
1.0
1.7
Eastern12.19.712.3+34647%11%2%4%
Atlanta15 pts
1.0
1.7
Eastern13.09.012.1+104858%16%3%4%
San Jose19 pts
0.6
1.6
Western12.59.711.8-14763%15%2%4%
NY Red Bulls17 pts
1.0
1.7
Eastern12.97.513.6-54647%9%1%4%
Columbus19 pts
1.0
1.9
Eastern13.56.414.1+04751%11%2%4%
Philadelphia16 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern11.99.712.5+34543%8%1%3%
Orlando City20 pts
1.0
1.9
Eastern13.57.612.9-64856%13%3%3%
Montreal13 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.59.812.7+04438%7%1%3%
Colorado7 pts
0.6
1.6
Western9.77.317.0-113615%1%<1%2%
Minnesota11 pts
1.0
2.1
Western10.37.616.1-163818%2%<1%1%
D.C. United11 pts
0.9
1.9
Eastern10.57.915.6-153916%2%<1%1%
Real Salt Lake11 pts
0.7
1.9
Western9.87.516.6-173714%1%<1%1%
Forecast from

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