Major League Soccer Predictions

Major League Soccer

2018 season

USA

Updated June 14, 2018, at 1:27 p.m.

Upcoming matches

6/23	Philadelphia	53%	24%
	Vancouver	23%

6/23	NY Red Bulls	59%	21%
	FC Dallas	19%

6/23	Orlando City	50%	23%
	Montreal	26%

6/23	Sporting KC	57%	24%
	Houston	20%

6/23	Colorado	50%	25%
	Minnesota	25%

6/23	Real Salt Lake	54%	22%
	San Jose	24%

6/23	Seattle	56%	24%
	Chicago	20%

6/23	LAFC	44%	26%
	Columbus	30%

6/24	Atlanta	59%	23%
	Portland	19%

6/24	NYCFC	51%	22%
	Toronto FC	27%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »

6/13	San Jose2	42%	24%
	New England2	35%

	SAN	NWE
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.5	1.2
Non-shot xG	1.9	1.6

6/13	Colorado2	41%	26%
	Chicago2	33%

	CLR	CHI
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.2	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.3	1.6

6/13	Toronto FC4	63%	20%
	D.C. United4	17%

	TOR	DCU
Adjusted goals	4.2	4.2
Shot-based xG	3.4	2.3
Non-shot xG	2.3	1.5

6/13	NY Red Bulls2	57%	24%
	Seattle1	19%

	NWY	SEA
Adjusted goals	2.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	4.2	0.7
Non-shot xG	3.0	0.9

6/13	Montreal3	46%	24%
	Orlando City0	30%

	MTL	ORL
Adjusted goals	2.6	0.0
Shot-based xG	3.1	1.4
Non-shot xG	1.3	1.6

6/13	Columbus0	45%	27%
	Atlanta2	28%

	CLB	ATL
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.8
Shot-based xG	2.0	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.6	0.5

6/9	Portland0	45%	26%
	Sporting KC0	30%

	PRT	SKC
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.1	1.1
Non-shot xG	0.8	1.3

6/9	San Jose3	38%	24%
	LAFC4	38%

	SAN	LOS
Adjusted goals	3.2	4.0
Shot-based xG	1.1	2.3
Non-shot xG	1.1	1.4

6/9	LA Galaxy3	54%	23%
	Real Salt Lake0	23%

	LAG	RSL
Adjusted goals	3.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.7	1.1
Non-shot xG	1.3	0.8

6/9	Seattle2	57%	24%
	D.C. United1	18%

	SEA	DCU
Adjusted goals	2.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.2	2.1
Non-shot xG	1.9	1.2

6/9	Houston2	64%	21%
	Colorado0	16%

	HOU	CLR
Adjusted goals	2.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.2	0.1
Non-shot xG	2.2	0.1

6/9	Chicago1	49%	23%
	New England1	28%

	CHI	NWE
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	0.5	1.4
Non-shot xG	0.9	0.9

		Team rating			avg. simulated season					avg. simulated season		end-of-season probabilities

team	conference	spi	off.	def.	W	D	L	goal diff.	proj. pts.pts.	make playoffs	first-round bye	supporters’ shield	win mls cup
Atlanta33 pts	Eastern	44.2	1.4	1.4	19.5	7.0	7.5	+26	65	>99%	79%	37%	17%
Sporting KC29 pts	Western	40.2	1.2	1.4	17.0	9.6	7.4	+23	61	96%	61%	14%	14%
NY Red Bulls26 pts	Eastern	43.1	1.4	1.6	17.7	6.5	9.8	+24	60	96%	48%	15%	13%
NYCFC28 pts	Eastern	41.0	1.4	1.6	17.2	8.3	8.5	+19	60	96%	48%	12%	11%
Portland22 pts	Western	35.6	1.2	1.6	15.2	8.9	9.9	+7	54	81%	29%	4%	7%
Columbus27 pts	Eastern	37.1	1.1	1.4	14.2	10.2	9.6	+10	53	85%	13%	1%	6%
FC Dallas29 pts	Western	33.8	1.2	1.7	15.8	9.7	8.5	+11	57	90%	40%	7%	6%
LAFC24 pts	Western	34.8	1.3	1.8	15.8	7.4	10.7	+10	55	84%	33%	5%	5%
Houston21 pts	Western	35.3	1.2	1.7	14.2	7.6	12.2	+11	50	66%	16%	2%	4%
Toronto FC15 pts	Eastern	40.3	1.5	1.7	13.0	7.3	13.7	+2	46	55%	5%	<1%	4%
LA Galaxy20 pts	Western	32.3	1.1	1.7	13.7	6.5	13.8	+1	48	55%	8%	<1%	3%
Seattle11 pts	Western	32.0	0.9	1.5	11.5	7.4	15.1	-4	42	27%	2%	<1%	2%
New England24 pts	Eastern	29.8	1.1	1.9	12.3	10.1	11.6	+1	47	57%	3%	<1%	1%
Real Salt Lake22 pts	Western	26.9	1.0	1.9	13.7	5.3	15.0	-13	46	47%	6%	<1%	1%
Philadelphia18 pts	Eastern	30.4	1.0	1.7	11.6	7.6	14.8	-8	42	32%	1%	<1%	1%
Vancouver23 pts	Western	28.2	1.1	1.9	12.2	9.1	12.7	-8	46	41%	4%	<1%	1%
D.C. United10 pts	Eastern	29.7	1.1	1.9	10.5	8.9	14.6	-5	40	27%	1%	<1%	<1%
Chicago19 pts	Eastern	27.9	1.0	1.9	10.5	8.1	15.4	-12	40	21%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Orlando City19 pts	Eastern	26.5	1.0	2.0	11.4	5.2	17.4	-17	39	20%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Montreal15 pts	Eastern	25.4	0.9	1.9	10.6	4.2	19.2	-19	36	11%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Minnesota16 pts	Western	21.0	0.9	2.1	10.2	5.4	18.3	-22	36	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%
San Jose10 pts	Western	23.5	1.0	2.1	7.6	8.3	18.1	-16	31	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Colorado9 pts	Western	20.7	0.7	1.9	7.3	7.7	18.9	-21	30	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Forecast from

Season

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.