Updated 12:31 AM EDT | Jun 26, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming
6/29
NYCFC
54%
24%
Minnesota
23%
6/30
Real Salt Lake
47%
26%
Orlando City
27%
7/1
Sporting KC
54%
26%
Portland
20%
7/1
Chicago
54%
25%
Vancouver
22%
7/1
FC Dallas
46%
27%
Toronto FC
27%
7/1
Montreal
53%
25%
D.C. United
23%
7/1
Columbus
49%
25%
Atlanta
26%
7/1
Colorado
42%
29%
Houston
30%
7/1
San Jose
40%
28%
LA Galaxy
32%
7/2
Philadelphia
43%
26%
New England
31%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
6/25
Portland2
49%26%
Seattle2
25%
PRTSEA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.30.4
Non-shot xG1.61.0
6/24
San Jose2
51%27%
Real Salt Lake1
22%
SANRSL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG1.01.2
6/24
LA Galaxy1
45%28%
Sporting KC2
27%
LAGSKC
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG1.41.3
6/24
Chicago4
53%25%
Orlando City0
22%
CHIORL
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG3.90.1
Non-shot xG1.80.3
6/24
Minnesota2
43%26%
Vancouver2
31%
MNUVAN
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.51.2
6/24
Columbus4
48%25%
Montreal1
27%
CLBMTL
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG1.30.7
6/24
Atlanta1
54%26%
Colorado0
20%
ATLCLR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG2.10.7
6/24
Philadelphia1
51%26%
D.C. United0
23%
PHIDCU
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.61.3
Non-shot xG1.00.9
6/24
NY Red Bulls0
49%25%
NYCFC2
25%
NWYNYC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.30.6
Non-shot xG0.41.4
6/23
Houston1
45%27%
FC Dallas1
27%
HOUDAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.50.5
Non-shot xG1.10.9
6/23
Toronto FC2
54%24%
New England0
22%
TORNWE
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.00.7
Non-shot xG1.61.5
6/21
Seattle1
53%25%
Orlando City1
21%
SEAORL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG0.90.8
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Sporting KC30 pts
0.9
1.4
Western15.110.38.5+165697%68%12%13%
Toronto FC35 pts
1.2
1.5
Eastern17.39.47.3+196199%75%40%11%
FC Dallas25 pts
1.0
1.5
Western13.411.88.7+125289%45%5%9%
NYCFC30 pts
1.3
1.7
Eastern16.07.310.7+145592%39%13%8%
Chicago34 pts
1.2
1.7
Eastern16.78.49.0+165897%58%23%7%
Houston25 pts
1.0
1.7
Western13.48.512.1+54977%23%1%6%
LA Galaxy22 pts
1.1
1.7
Western12.98.712.4+24769%17%<1%5%
Portland25 pts
1.1
1.8
Western13.18.112.8+44771%16%<1%5%
Seattle21 pts
0.9
1.6
Western11.410.312.3-34552%8%<1%4%
Vancouver21 pts
0.9
1.8
Western12.78.013.4-14660%13%<1%4%
NY Red Bulls23 pts
0.9
1.6
Eastern13.46.414.1-54749%4%<1%4%
Atlanta24 pts
1.0
1.7
Eastern13.67.412.9+104863%8%1%4%
New England20 pts
1.1
1.7
Eastern11.79.413.0+44439%3%<1%4%
Columbus25 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern14.05.114.9-14754%5%<1%3%
San Jose23 pts
0.6
1.6
Western11.59.612.9-64447%6%<1%3%
Montreal18 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.110.812.1-24436%3%<1%3%
Orlando City26 pts
0.9
1.9
Eastern12.09.112.9-104537%2%<1%2%
Philadelphia19 pts
0.8
1.8
Eastern10.98.714.4-24223%1%<1%2%
Colorado16 pts
0.6
1.7
Western10.65.917.5-123815%1%<1%1%
D.C. United18 pts
0.8
1.8
Eastern10.67.515.9-163911%<1%<1%1%
Minnesota18 pts
0.9
2.1
Western10.27.316.4-193814%<1%<1%<1%
Real Salt Lake17 pts
0.8
2.0
Western10.26.217.6-233710%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

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