Updated Sept. 23, 2018 at 12:25 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2018 season

USA

Updated Sept. 22, 2018, at 10:04 p.m.

Upcoming matches
9/23
Philadelphia
41%
26%
Sporting KC
33%
9/23
LA Galaxy
45%
24%
Seattle
31%
9/23
Vancouver
45%
24%
FC Dallas
32%
9/26
NYCFC
69%
19%
Chicago
12%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/22
Minnesota3
40%24%
Portland2
36%
MNUPRT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.11.2
9/22
Orlando City0
40%24%
Houston0
36%
ORLHOU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.6
Non-shot xG1.40.6
9/22
New England2
57%23%
Chicago2
20%
NWECHI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.80.4
Non-shot xG2.11.0
9/22
Montreal1
44%26%
NYCFC1
30%
MTLNYC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.2
Non-shot xG0.70.8
9/22
Columbus2
73%19%
Colorado1
7%
CLBCLR
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG3.00.1
Non-shot xG2.20.0
9/22
Atlanta2
67%19%
Real Salt Lake0
14%
ATLRSL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.3
Non-shot xG1.30.6
9/22
NY Red Bulls2
59%21%
Toronto FC0
20%
NWYTOR
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.91.3
Non-shot xG1.01.2
9/22
LAFC2
63%20%
San Jose0
17%
LOSSAN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG1.90.6
9/19
Seattle0
56%24%
Philadelphia1
20%
SEAPHI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.10.4
9/19
San Jose3
25%22%
Atlanta4
54%
SANATL
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG1.02.6
Non-shot xG1.42.3
9/19
Portland3
48%27%
Columbus2
26%
PRTCLB
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.11.9
Non-shot xG1.11.4
9/16
Chicago4
47%23%
Orlando City0
30%
CHIORL
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.81.4
Non-shot xG1.60.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Atlanta63 pts
Eastern
55.8
1.7
1.3
21.26.86.0+327085%28%
Sporting KC51 pts
Western
49.7
1.5
1.3
17.97.48.7+2361>99%85%<1%16%
NY Red Bulls59 pts
Eastern
48.5
1.5
1.3
20.05.98.1+2566>99%14%15%
NYCFC50 pts
Eastern
48.7
1.5
1.3
16.18.99.0+1557>99%<1%9%
FC Dallas50 pts
Western
41.7
1.3
1.5
16.39.48.2+1058>99%55%<1%6%
Columbus47 pts
Eastern
46.2
1.3
1.3
15.09.010.1+354>99%<1%6%
Seattle44 pts
Western
42.9
1.2
1.3
15.96.411.6+115497%15%6%
LAFC50 pts
Western
41.0
1.4
1.6
16.09.28.8+1557>99%42%<1%5%
Portland47 pts
Western
40.1
1.4
1.6
14.68.910.5+15390%3%3%
Real Salt Lake45 pts
Western
41.2
1.4
1.6
14.56.912.6+05181%<1%2%
Philadelphia43 pts
Eastern
39.9
1.3
1.6
14.85.214.0-54995%2%
Montreal40 pts
Eastern
39.0
1.2
1.4
13.45.015.5-54558%<1%
D.C. United35 pts
Eastern
37.3
1.3
1.7
11.79.412.9+24439%<1%
Vancouver40 pts
Western
34.4
1.3
1.9
12.98.312.8-104723%<1%<1%
LA Galaxy38 pts
Western
37.5
1.5
1.9
12.09.113.0-54510%<1%<1%
New England35 pts
Eastern
37.2
1.2
1.6
9.612.112.3-4416%<1%
Toronto FC30 pts
Eastern
44.1
1.5
1.6
10.27.116.7-6382%<1%
Minnesota33 pts
Western
33.2
1.2
1.8
11.84.118.1-1539<1%<1%
Houston32 pts
Western
37.1
1.2
1.6
9.79.215.1+338<1%<1%
Chicago28 pts
Eastern
33.0
1.2
1.8
8.38.017.7-1433<1%<1%
Orlando City25 pts
Eastern
28.0
1.1
2.0
8.05.120.9-3029<1%<1%
Colorado24 pts
Western
25.1
0.9
1.8
7.27.219.7-2629
San Jose20 pts
Western
29.9
1.2
2.0
5.28.919.9-2024
Forecast from
Season

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