Updated Aug. 18, 2017 at 4:09 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 24 leagues, updated after each match.

mls
Upcoming matches
8/18
Portland
43%
24%
NY Red Bulls
34%
8/19
Montreal
51%
23%
Real Salt Lake
26%
8/19
Orlando City
44%
26%
Columbus
30%
8/19
Chicago
40%
25%
Toronto FC
35%
8/19
Sporting KC
51%
28%
FC Dallas
21%
8/19
Colorado
50%
28%
D.C. United
23%
8/19
Vancouver
47%
26%
Houston
27%
8/19
San Jose
43%
28%
Philadelphia
30%
8/20
NYCFC
56%
22%
New England
23%
8/20
Seattle
76%
16%
Minnesota
8%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/16
Montreal3
40%24%
Chicago0
36%
MTLCHI
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.40.4
Non-shot xG0.31.8
8/12
LA Galaxy0
39%23%
NYCFC2
37%
LAGNYC
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG1.70.6
8/12
Houston3
60%24%
San Jose0
16%
HOUSAN
Adjusted goals2.20.0
Shot-based xG3.41.0
Non-shot xG1.11.5
8/12
Philadelphia0
55%23%
Montreal3
22%
PHIMTL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.20.6
8/12
New England1
52%23%
Vancouver0
26%
NWEVAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.7
Non-shot xG0.71.3
8/12
FC Dallas0
62%24%
Colorado0
14%
DALCLR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.2
Non-shot xG3.10.2
8/12
NY Red Bulls3
65%21%
Orlando City1
14%
NWYORL
Adjusted goals2.31.1
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG1.30.5
8/12
Columbus3
39%24%
Chicago1
37%
CLBCHI
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG2.70.6
Non-shot xG1.10.9
8/12
D.C. United0
45%24%
Real Salt Lake1
31%
DCURSL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG2.11.1
8/12
Toronto FC4
61%21%
Portland1
18%
TORPRT
Adjusted goals3.61.1
Shot-based xG2.71.2
Non-shot xG1.51.5
8/12
Seattle1
49%28%
Sporting KC0
23%
SEASKC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.2
Non-shot xG1.20.6
8/6
Sporting KC1
53%26%
Atlanta1
21%
SKCATL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG0.80.6
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Toronto FC47 pts
Eastern
44.9
1.4
1.4
18.210.25.6+2865>99%86%64%24%
Seattle37 pts
Western
38.1
1.2
1.5
14.99.49.7+115497%55%2%9%
NYCFC43 pts
Eastern
39.6
1.4
1.7
17.46.310.3+155898%43%13%9%
NY Red Bulls38 pts
Eastern
39.8
1.3
1.5
16.84.612.6+105593%21%5%8%
Sporting KC37 pts
Western
35.7
0.9
1.3
13.312.78.0+135294%39%<1%8%
FC Dallas35 pts
Western
35.6
1.1
1.5
13.811.29.1+95293%39%2%7%
Chicago41 pts
Eastern
36.5
1.3
1.7
16.67.310.1+185797%32%9%7%
Houston37 pts
Western
34.2
1.1
1.6
14.19.510.4+125293%36%<1%6%
Atlanta35 pts
Eastern
34.8
1.1
1.6
15.57.910.6+175489%16%4%6%
Vancouver31 pts
Western
32.3
1.1
1.7
13.96.913.1+24980%19%<1%4%
Portland34 pts
Western
34.3
1.3
1.8
12.89.112.1+24873%9%<1%3%
Montreal33 pts
Eastern
31.2
1.1
1.8
12.98.512.6-14741%1%<1%2%
Columbus35 pts
Eastern
30.7
1.1
1.8
14.34.215.4-34746%<1%<1%2%
New England29 pts
Eastern
33.9
1.2
1.8
12.07.614.3-14420%<1%<1%2%
Real Salt Lake29 pts
Western
29.8
1.1
1.8
11.47.315.3-134124%<1%<1%<1%
San Jose32 pts
Western
23.5
0.8
1.8
12.07.514.5-154436%2%<1%<1%
Orlando City30 pts
Eastern
25.8
0.9
1.8
11.28.514.3-144210%<1%<1%<1%
Philadelphia29 pts
Eastern
29.2
0.9
1.7
11.27.515.3-2417%<1%<1%<1%
LA Galaxy23 pts
Western
28.6
1.0
1.8
9.77.616.7-12375%<1%<1%<1%
Colorado22 pts
Western
23.8
0.7
1.6
9.27.117.6-14354%<1%<1%<1%
Minnesota22 pts
Western
19.3
0.8
2.1
8.06.319.7-3130<1%<1%<1%<1%
D.C. United19 pts
Eastern
24.5
0.9
1.9
8.06.419.6-2930<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from

Comments