Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming
3/31
Toronto FC
54%
25%
Sporting KC
20%
3/31
Seattle
55%
25%
Atlanta
21%
4/1
NYCFC
54%
25%
San Jose
21%
4/1
Chicago
41%
25%
Montreal
34%
4/1
Columbus
51%
24%
Orlando City
25%
4/1
D.C. United
52%
24%
Philadelphia
24%
4/1
Minnesota
47%
26%
Real Salt Lake
27%
4/1
Houston
35%
27%
NY Red Bulls
38%
4/1
Vancouver
38%
27%
LA Galaxy
34%
4/2
Portland
51%
24%
New England
24%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/25
Columbus3
46%24%
Portland2
30%
CLBPRT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.00.7
Non-shot xG1.01.0
3/25
NY Red Bulls0
54%25%
Real Salt Lake0
21%
NWYRSL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.91.2
Non-shot xG1.50.4
3/25
New England5
54%25%
Minnesota2
22%
NWEMNU
Adjusted goals5.32.1
Shot-based xG3.91.3
Non-shot xG1.60.5
3/19
Seattle3
49%26%
NY Red Bulls1
25%
SEANWY
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG0.91.0
3/18
Portland4
52%25%
Houston2
22%
PRTHOU
Adjusted goals3.82.1
Shot-based xG3.22.0
Non-shot xG2.51.1
3/18
Real Salt Lake1
40%28%
LA Galaxy2
32%
RSLLAG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG0.70.9
3/18
Colorado2
54%27%
Minnesota2
20%
CLRMNU
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG0.90.6
3/18
Sporting KC2
54%27%
San Jose1
19%
SKCSAN
Adjusted goals1.61.1
Shot-based xG0.90.7
Non-shot xG1.20.9
3/18
FC Dallas2
54%26%
New England1
20%
DALNWE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.30.5
3/18
Orlando City2
51%24%
Philadelphia1
25%
ORLPHI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.01.2
3/18
D.C. United0
52%23%
Columbus2
24%
DCUCLB
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG2.10.7
3/18
Atlanta4
53%24%
Chicago0
23%
ATLCHI
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.80.8
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Seattle4 pts
1.2
1.5
Western14.89.210.1+115381%40%13%9%
Toronto FC5 pts
1.3
1.5
Eastern14.59.99.5+115480%39%12%9%
NY Red Bulls7 pts
1.2
1.6
Eastern15.08.710.3+85480%39%12%9%
FC Dallas7 pts
1.0
1.5
Western14.89.39.9+85480%40%14%8%
LA Galaxy3 pts
1.0
1.6
Western13.18.212.7+24861%18%4%6%
Portland9 pts
1.2
1.9
Western14.67.611.7+85276%30%8%5%
Sporting KC5 pts
0.9
1.6
Western12.710.311.1+24863%20%5%5%
NYCFC4 pts
1.3
2.0
Eastern12.68.812.6+34755%16%3%4%
Atlanta6 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern13.38.012.7+74862%20%4%4%
New England3 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern12.68.013.4+14652%15%3%4%
Columbus7 pts
1.1
2.0
Eastern12.98.612.5+04756%18%4%4%
Orlando City6 pts
1.1
2.0
Eastern13.28.112.6-14858%19%4%4%
Colorado4 pts
0.6
1.5
Western11.89.612.6-24550%12%2%4%
Houston6 pts
0.8
1.7
Western12.98.212.9-14758%16%3%4%
D.C. United1 pt
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.58.913.6-64341%9%1%4%
Montreal2 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.69.912.6-14546%11%2%3%
San Jose6 pts
0.6
1.6
Western12.18.513.4-44549%11%2%3%
Philadelphia2 pts
1.0
2.0
Eastern10.79.913.4-54236%8%1%3%
Real Salt Lake2 pts
0.7
1.7
Western10.110.113.9-74031%5%<1%3%
Chicago4 pts
0.9
2.1
Eastern11.08.914.1-94234%7%<1%2%
Vancouver1 pt
0.8
1.8
Western10.09.214.9-93926%4%<1%2%
Minnesota1 pt
0.9
2.2
Western9.98.715.4-183823%3%<1%2%
Forecast from

commentsAdd comment