Updated Apr. 23, 2018 at 10:08 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated Apr. 23, 2018, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/28
Liverpool
88%
10%
Stoke City
3%
4/28
Newcastle
49%
29%
West Brom
22%
4/28
Burnley
52%
29%
Brighton
19%
4/28
Southampton
47%
25%
Bournemouth
27%
4/28
Crystal Palace
41%
27%
Leicester City
31%
4/28
Huddersfield
32%
30%
Everton
38%
4/28
Swansea City
17%
23%
Chelsea
61%
4/29
West Ham
8%
14%
Man. City
78%
4/29
Man. United
45%
23%
Arsenal
31%
4/30
Tottenham
82%
14%
Watford
5%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/23
Everton1
45%28%
Newcastle0
28%
EVENEW
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG1.11.4
4/22
Man. City5
90%9%
Swansea City0
2%
MNCSWA
Adjusted goals4.80.0
Shot-based xG3.40.3
Non-shot xG3.00.2
4/22
Stoke City1
34%30%
Burnley1
36%
STKBRN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG1.41.2
4/22
Arsenal4
78%14%
West Ham1
9%
ARSWHU
Adjusted goals3.31.1
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG4.51.2
4/21
Watford0
39%26%
Crystal Palace0
35%
WATCRY
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.2
Non-shot xG0.70.8
4/21
West Brom2
10%18%
Liverpool2
73%
WBALIV
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.6
Non-shot xG1.51.9
4/19
Leicester City0
53%25%
Southampton0
22%
LEISOU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.7
Non-shot xG1.30.6
4/19
Burnley1
26%27%
Chelsea2
47%
BRNCHE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.31.8
Non-shot xG0.61.7
4/18
Bournemouth0
22%22%
Man. United2
55%
BOUMAN
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.21.2
4/17
Brighton1
13%20%
Tottenham1
67%
BHATOT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG0.41.9
4/16
West Ham1
48%26%
Stoke City1
26%
WHUSTK
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG3.01.6
4/15
Man. United0
80%15%
West Brom1
5%
MANWBA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG2.60.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City90 pts
91.1
3.1
0.5
32.33.52.2+82100
Man. United74 pts
78.9
2.3
0.7
25.35.96.8+4382>99%
Liverpool71 pts
88.2
2.9
0.5
22.211.44.4+4878>99%
Tottenham68 pts
85.5
2.6
0.6
23.08.76.3+427899%
Chelsea63 pts
80.4
2.4
0.7
21.36.99.9+28712%
Arsenal57 pts
80.2
2.8
0.9
19.16.912.0+2364<1%
Burnley53 pts
62.0
1.5
0.8
15.211.811.1+357
Everton45 pts
60.1
1.7
1.0
13.29.815.0-1449
Leicester City44 pts
65.5
1.8
0.9
12.311.913.8+149
Newcastle41 pts
59.3
1.5
0.9
12.19.016.9-1045<1%
Bournemouth38 pts
56.3
1.8
1.3
10.011.816.2-1742<1%
Watford38 pts
56.4
1.6
1.1
10.68.618.8-2140<1%
Crystal Palace35 pts
62.7
1.8
1.0
9.311.816.9-1740<1%
West Ham35 pts
53.9
1.7
1.3
8.911.917.3-25384%
Brighton36 pts
53.9
1.4
1.1
8.412.716.8-22382%
Swansea City33 pts
50.9
1.3
1.1
9.210.118.7-253815%
Huddersfield35 pts
48.3
1.2
1.1
9.58.719.7-333710%
Southampton29 pts
58.6
1.6
1.0
6.215.016.8-223472%
Stoke City29 pts
51.7
1.4
1.2
6.611.719.7-363296%
West Brom25 pts
54.5
1.5
1.1
4.613.819.7-2727>99%
Forecast from
Season

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