Updated Nov. 20, 2017 at 9:46 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated Nov. 20, 2017 at 4:54 PM

Upcoming matches
11/24
West Ham
37%
27%
Leicester City
36%
11/25
Man. United
83%
14%
Brighton
3%
11/25
Tottenham
81%
15%
West Brom
4%
11/25
Newcastle
39%
28%
Watford
33%
11/25
Crystal Palace
42%
27%
Stoke City
31%
11/25
Swansea City
39%
29%
Bournemouth
31%
11/25
Liverpool
44%
25%
Chelsea
31%
11/26
Southampton
45%
28%
Everton
28%
11/26
Burnley
26%
26%
Arsenal
48%
11/26
Huddersfield
6%
13%
Man. City
81%
11/28
Leicester City
21%
25%
Tottenham
54%
11/28
Brighton
39%
30%
Crystal Palace
32%
11/28
West Brom
42%
31%
Newcastle
27%
11/28
Watford
19%
23%
Man. United
58%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/20
Brighton2
37%29%
Stoke City2
34%
BHASTK
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.61.3
Non-shot xG1.21.6
11/19
Watford2
49%25%
West Ham0
25%
WATWHU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.31.8
Non-shot xG1.51.1
11/18
Man. United4
81%15%
Newcastle1
4%
MANNEW
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG2.91.1
Non-shot xG2.61.3
11/18
Bournemouth4
52%29%
Huddersfield0
19%
BOUHUD
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.12.3
11/18
West Brom0
18%24%
Chelsea4
58%
WBACHE
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG0.92.2
11/18
Leicester City0
13%18%
Man. City2
68%
LEIMNC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.22.0
Non-shot xG0.22.0
11/18
Crystal Palace2
42%27%
Everton2
31%
CRYEVE
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.21.7
Non-shot xG1.80.7
11/18
Burnley2
50%30%
Swansea City0
21%
BRNSWA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.5
Non-shot xG1.60.9
11/18
Liverpool3
69%20%
Southampton0
11%
LIVSOU
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.40.7
Non-shot xG1.80.7
11/18
Arsenal2
35%26%
Tottenham0
39%
ARSTOT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG2.11.7
11/5
Everton3
44%27%
Watford2
29%
EVEWAT
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.81.7
Non-shot xG1.01.7
11/5
Chelsea1
39%26%
Man. United0
35%
CHEMAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.9
Non-shot xG1.61.2
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City34 pts
91.3
3.2
0.5
30.25.02.8+8096<1%>99%85%
Man. United26 pts
84.0
2.5
0.5
23.77.56.7+4879<1%74%6%
Chelsea25 pts
82.9
2.6
0.7
24.16.27.7+4278<1%73%4%
Tottenham23 pts
83.3
2.4
0.5
22.77.67.7+3876<1%61%2%
Liverpool22 pts
82.4
2.6
0.7
21.79.37.0+3474<1%53%2%
Arsenal22 pts
79.3
2.5
0.8
21.46.79.9+2871<1%37%<1%
Burnley22 pts
60.9
1.5
0.9
14.211.312.6-354<1%2%<1%
Watford18 pts
59.8
1.7
1.1
13.49.315.3-11493%<1%<1%
Leicester City13 pts
61.9
1.7
1.0
11.910.715.4-7476%<1%<1%
Stoke City13 pts
59.6
1.7
1.1
11.410.316.3-184410%<1%<1%
Everton12 pts
59.2
1.7
1.1
11.59.517.0-194412%<1%<1%
Bournemouth13 pts
57.0
1.6
1.1
11.57.618.9-154214%<1%<1%
Southampton13 pts
59.7
1.5
0.9
10.210.717.1-174116%<1%<1%
Newcastle14 pts
54.5
1.5
1.1
10.68.418.9-204018%<1%<1%
Brighton16 pts
52.0
1.3
1.0
9.910.617.5-194018%<1%<1%
Huddersfield15 pts
46.1
1.2
1.1
8.99.419.7-343636%<1%<1%
West Ham9 pts
54.5
1.6
1.2
8.99.120.0-313638%<1%<1%
West Brom10 pts
52.9
1.3
1.0
8.310.719.0-263637%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace5 pts
57.2
1.6
1.1
8.88.820.4-273540%<1%<1%
Swansea City8 pts
52.4
1.4
1.1
8.18.621.3-263350%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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