Updated Feb. 19, 2018 at 9:14 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated Feb. 15, 2018 at 3:07 PM

Upcoming matches
2/24
Leicester City
57%
24%
Stoke City
19%
2/24
Liverpool
85%
10%
West Ham
4%
2/24
Burnley
44%
30%
Southampton
26%
2/24
West Brom
49%
30%
Huddersfield
20%
2/24
Bournemouth
48%
26%
Newcastle
26%
2/24
Brighton
41%
32%
Swansea City
27%
2/24
Watford
48%
25%
Everton
27%
2/25
Crystal Palace
18%
22%
Tottenham
60%
2/25
Man. United
42%
26%
Chelsea
32%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
2/12
Chelsea3
77%17%
West Brom0
6%
CHEWBA
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG2.40.7
Non-shot xG2.61.4
2/11
Southampton0
17%20%
Liverpool2
64%
SOULIV
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.02.4
Non-shot xG1.31.6
2/11
Newcastle1
19%24%
Man. United0
56%
NEWMAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG1.02.6
2/11
Huddersfield4
28%29%
Bournemouth1
43%
HUDBOU
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG2.50.7
Non-shot xG1.40.8
2/10
Man. City5
81%13%
Leicester City1
5%
MNCLEI
Adjusted goals4.61.1
Shot-based xG2.30.1
Non-shot xG2.80.5
2/10
Swansea City1
36%34%
Burnley0
31%
SWABRN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG2.31.0
2/10
Stoke City1
46%29%
Brighton1
26%
STKBHA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG1.62.0
2/10
West Ham2
40%25%
Watford0
35%
WHUWAT
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG1.32.0
2/10
Everton3
38%27%
Crystal Palace1
35%
EVECRY
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.51.8
Non-shot xG1.92.0
2/10
Tottenham1
54%22%
Arsenal0
24%
TOTARS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG3.00.6
Non-shot xG2.00.7
2/5
Watford4
19%22%
Chelsea1
59%
WATCHE
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG2.41.0
2/4
Liverpool2
47%24%
Tottenham2
28%
LIVTOT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.42.6
Non-shot xG1.00.9
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City72 pts
91.2
3.2
0.5
30.94.82.4+7797>99%>99%
Liverpool54 pts
88.6
3.0
0.6
23.110.64.3+5080<1%96%<1%
Tottenham52 pts
86.5
2.7
0.5
22.39.16.6+4376<1%81%<1%
Man. United56 pts
78.6
2.2
0.7
22.57.68.0+387569%<1%
Chelsea53 pts
81.0
2.4
0.7
21.67.58.9+3372<1%44%<1%
Arsenal45 pts
81.4
2.8
0.9
19.88.110.2+2767<1%10%<1%
Leicester City35 pts
64.4
1.8
1.0
13.410.813.8+051<1%<1%
Burnley36 pts
59.6
1.4
0.8
12.812.213.1-450<1%<1%
Everton34 pts
57.6
1.7
1.2
12.59.815.7-1747<1%<1%
Bournemouth31 pts
57.5
1.7
1.2
11.39.617.1-15443%<1%
Watford30 pts
60.5
1.8
1.1
11.68.517.9-14433%<1%
West Ham30 pts
57.2
1.7
1.2
9.811.416.8-20418%<1%
Crystal Palace27 pts
62.0
1.7
1.0
9.711.816.6-194112%<1%
Swansea City27 pts
54.4
1.3
1.0
10.09.019.0-223920%<1%
Newcastle28 pts
54.3
1.5
1.1
9.79.618.7-193919%<1%
Southampton26 pts
59.3
1.7
1.1
8.213.816.1-173823%<1%
Brighton28 pts
52.3
1.3
1.0
8.312.617.0-243827%<1%
Huddersfield27 pts
47.5
1.2
1.1
9.18.620.3-353646%<1%
Stoke City25 pts
52.2
1.5
1.2
8.39.420.3-373462%<1%
West Brom20 pts
53.7
1.4
1.0
5.914.018.1-243276%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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