Updated Dec. 18, 2018, at 4:34 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Dec. 16, 2018, at 1:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/21
Wolverhampton
12%
21%
Liverpool
67%
12/22
Arsenal
78%
15%
Burnley
7%
12/22
Chelsea
71%
20%
Leicester City
9%
12/22
Newcastle
48%
28%
Fulham
25%
12/22
Man. City
88%
9%
Crystal Palace
2%
12/22
West Ham
43%
27%
Watford
30%
12/22
Huddersfield
37%
31%
Southampton
32%
12/22
Bournemouth
48%
26%
Brighton
25%
12/22
Cardiff City
26%
25%
Man. United
49%
12/23
Everton
25%
25%
Tottenham
50%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/16
Liverpool3
69%19%
Man. United1
12%
LIVMAN
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG3.10.7
Non-shot xG2.90.4
12/16
Brighton1
15%22%
Chelsea2
62%
BHACHE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.41.7
Non-shot xG0.50.8
12/16
Southampton3
24%25%
Arsenal2
51%
SOUARS
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.01.4
12/15
Fulham0
38%27%
West Ham2
36%
FULWHU
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG1.41.1
12/15
Huddersfield0
41%32%
Newcastle1
27%
HUDNEW
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.90.9
Non-shot xG2.10.3
12/15
Watford3
52%26%
Cardiff City2
22%
WATCAR
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG2.70.5
12/15
Wolverhampton2
47%27%
Bournemouth0
26%
WOLBOU
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.70.6
Non-shot xG0.71.0
12/15
Crystal Palace1
45%29%
Leicester City0
26%
CRYLEI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.51.1
Non-shot xG0.50.9
12/15
Tottenham1
83%13%
Burnley0
4%
TOTBRN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG2.20.8
12/15
Man. City3
88%9%
Everton1
2%
MNCEVE
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.71.9
Non-shot xG1.51.1
12/10
Everton2
45%28%
Watford2
27%
EVEWAT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.6
Non-shot xG2.01.3
12/9
Newcastle1
42%30%
Wolverhampton2
28%
NEWWOL
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG0.61.8
Non-shot xG1.21.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City44 pts
93.1
3.1
0.3
29.15.63.3+7393<1%>99%53%
Liverpool45 pts
91.8
2.8
0.3
28.46.92.7+6192<1%>99%42%
Tottenham39 pts
85.6
2.5
0.5
25.24.58.3+3480<1%84%3%
Chelsea37 pts
86.1
2.4
0.4
22.98.76.5+3977<1%74%2%
Arsenal34 pts
81.1
2.4
0.7
20.88.78.5+2771<1%36%<1%
Man. United26 pts
78.3
2.3
0.7
16.810.111.1+960<1%5%<1%
Everton24 pts
72.2
2.0
0.8
13.511.512.9+152<1%<1%<1%
Watford24 pts
70.7
1.9
0.8
14.38.315.5-651<1%<1%<1%
West Ham24 pts
69.2
1.9
0.9
14.28.315.5-451<1%<1%<1%
Wolverhampton25 pts
69.6
1.8
0.7
13.69.514.9-650<1%<1%<1%
Leicester City22 pts
70.0
1.8
0.7
12.69.415.9-6472%<1%<1%
Bournemouth23 pts
64.4
1.9
1.0
13.27.117.7-12472%<1%<1%
Brighton21 pts
61.8
1.6
1.0
11.58.318.1-15437%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace15 pts
68.3
1.7
0.8
10.58.519.1-164014%<1%<1%
Newcastle16 pts
63.2
1.7
0.9
9.59.319.2-203821%<1%<1%
Southampton12 pts
66.4
1.8
0.9
8.611.417.9-223725%<1%<1%
Cardiff City14 pts
59.3
1.6
1.1
9.07.321.7-303440%<1%<1%
Huddersfield10 pts
61.7
1.5
0.8
7.09.821.2-303159%<1%<1%
Burnley12 pts
56.4
1.6
1.1
7.58.022.4-353161%<1%<1%
Fulham9 pts
58.0
1.7
1.1
7.18.222.7-403066%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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