Updated Nov. 18, 2019, at 7:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 1:25 p.m.

Upcoming matches
November 19-25
11/23
West Ham
26%
22%
Tottenham
51%
11/23
Everton
65%
21%
Norwich
14%
11/23
Arsenal
61%
21%
Southampton
19%
11/23
Crystal Palace
11%
17%
Liverpool
72%
11/23
Watford
45%
26%
Burnley
29%
11/23
Bournemouth
44%
27%
Wolves
30%
11/23
Brighton
26%
26%
Leicester
48%
11/23
Man. City
68%
18%
Chelsea
15%
11/24
Sheffield Utd
28%
28%
Man. United
44%
11/25
Aston Villa
47%
26%
Newcastle
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
November 5-11
11/10
Liverpool3
38%23%
Man. City1
40%
LIVMNC
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.41.5
Non-shot xG1.61.8
11/10
Wolves2
50%26%
Aston Villa1
24%
WOLAVL
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.10.6
11/10
Man. United3
60%24%
Brighton1
16%
MANBHA
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.41.1
Non-shot xG1.80.9
11/9
Leicester2
52%23%
Arsenal0
24%
LEIARS
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG2.31.4
11/9
Southampton1
35%27%
Everton2
38%
SOUEVE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.62.3
Non-shot xG0.42.0
11/9
Burnley3
46%25%
West Ham0
30%
BRNWHU
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG1.61.0
11/9
Newcastle2
40%27%
Bournemouth1
33%
NEWBOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.12.0
Non-shot xG0.71.2
11/9
Tottenham1
68%20%
Sheffield Utd1
12%
TOTSHEF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.01.1
Non-shot xG1.70.9
11/9
Chelsea2
72%18%
Crystal Palace0
11%
CHECRY
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG3.60.5
Non-shot xG2.30.5
11/8
Norwich0
36%26%
Watford2
38%
NORWAT
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG1.60.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool34 pts
93.0
3.0
0.3
+5993<1%>99%67%
Man. City25 pts
95.2
3.3
0.2
+7187<1%99%29%
Chelsea26 pts
87.2
2.6
0.5
+3175<1%81%3%
Leicester26 pts
82.7
2.2
0.5
+3269<1%63%1%
Tottenham14 pts
82.4
2.4
0.6
+1458<1%18%<1%
Man. United16 pts
81.7
2.1
0.5
+1157<1%13%<1%
Arsenal17 pts
77.2
2.3
0.8
+2562%11%<1%
Everton14 pts
78.9
2.0
0.5
-4514%5%<1%
Wolves16 pts
73.7
1.8
0.6
-3495%3%<1%
Bournemouth16 pts
70.3
2.0
0.9
-9478%2%<1%
Sheffield Utd17 pts
68.7
1.7
0.7
-7469%1%<1%
Burnley15 pts
70.1
1.9
0.8
-104610%1%<1%
Crystal Palace15 pts
69.5
1.8
0.8
-154612%1%<1%
Brighton15 pts
68.4
1.8
0.9
-134415%1%<1%
Newcastle15 pts
65.5
1.7
0.9
-214220%<1%<1%
West Ham13 pts
65.7
1.9
1.0
-224028%<1%<1%
Aston Villa11 pts
65.6
1.9
1.0
-163930%<1%<1%
Watford8 pts
67.8
1.8
0.9
-263739%<1%<1%
Southampton8 pts
64.1
1.8
1.0
-313743%<1%<1%
Norwich7 pts
57.4
1.7
1.2
-412974%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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