Updated March 5, 2021, at 5:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2020-21

England

Updated March 4, 2021, at 5:07 p.m.

Upcoming matches
March 2-8
3/6
Burnley
25%
27%
Arsenal
48%
3/6
Sheffield Utd
35%
30%
Southampton
35%
3/6
Aston Villa
49%
27%
Wolves
24%
3/6
Brighton
37%
28%
Leicester
35%
3/7
West Brom
31%
28%
Newcastle
41%
3/7
Liverpool
71%
19%
Fulham
10%
3/7
Man. City
58%
23%
Man. United
18%
3/7
Tottenham
68%
20%
Crystal Palace
12%
3/8
Chelsea
66%
22%
Everton
12%
3/8
West Ham
55%
23%
Leeds United
22%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 2-8
3/4
Liverpool0
45%26%
Chelsea1
29%
LIVCHE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.31.3
Non-shot xG2.01.0
3/4
West Brom0
23%26%
Everton1
51%
WBAEVE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG2.01.3
3/4
Fulham0
31%27%
Tottenham1
42%
FULTOT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.21.8
Non-shot xG1.50.9
3/3
Crystal Palace0
13%20%
Man. United0
68%
CRYMAN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG0.51.9
3/3
Sheffield Utd1
26%27%
Aston Villa0
46%
SHEFAVL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG0.52.3
3/3
Burnley1
25%29%
Leicester1
46%
BRNLEI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG1.51.1
3/2
Man. City4
84%13%
Wolves1
3%
MNCWOL
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.60.4
Non-shot xG2.40.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City65 pts
93.7
2.9
0.2
+5691—>99%>99%
Man. United51 pts
86.9
2.4
0.4
+2770—80%<1%
Chelsea47 pts
88.6
2.3
0.2
+2568<1%64%<1%
Liverpool43 pts
88.2
2.6
0.4
+2466<1%48%<1%
Leicester50 pts
76.4
1.9
0.6
+1666<1%40%<1%
West Ham45 pts
77.7
2.1
0.6
+1263<1%27%<1%
Tottenham42 pts
79.4
2.2
0.6
+2062<1%20%<1%
Everton46 pts
73.0
1.9
0.7
+361<1%11%<1%
Arsenal37 pts
82.4
2.2
0.5
+1357<1%5%<1%
Aston Villa39 pts
75.5
2.0
0.7
+1157<1%5%<1%
Leeds United35 pts
71.2
2.1
0.9
-549<1%<1%<1%
Wolves34 pts
71.9
1.8
0.7
-1148<1%<1%<1%
Southampton30 pts
68.4
1.8
0.8
-17443%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace34 pts
62.1
1.6
0.9
-23432%<1%<1%
Brighton26 pts
77.3
2.0
0.6
-8426%<1%—
Burnley29 pts
67.4
1.7
0.7
-204110%<1%—
Newcastle26 pts
63.0
1.7
0.9
-253829%<1%—
Fulham23 pts
70.3
1.7
0.7
-183455%<1%—
Sheffield Utd14 pts
63.1
1.6
0.8
-322597%<1%—
West Brom17 pts
55.6
1.6
1.1
-472598%<1%—
Forecast from
Season

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