Updated July 22, 2019, at 8:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated June 1, 2019, at 5:02 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/12
Brighton1
3%11%
Man. City4
85%
BHAMNC
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG0.72.1
Non-shot xG0.33.7
5/12
Watford1
42%26%
West Ham4
32%
WATWHU
Adjusted goals1.13.6
Shot-based xG2.12.9
Non-shot xG2.21.9
5/12
Leicester City0
34%27%
Chelsea0
39%
LEICHE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG0.91.7
5/12
Crystal Palace5
42%26%
Bournemouth3
32%
CRYBOU
Adjusted goals5.03.2
Shot-based xG2.72.2
Non-shot xG1.31.8
5/12
Southampton1
49%27%
Huddersfield1
24%
SOUHUD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.0
Non-shot xG1.40.5
5/12
Burnley1
33%25%
Arsenal3
42%
BRNARS
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.72.9
Non-shot xG2.22.2
5/12
Fulham0
36%28%
Newcastle4
36%
FULNEW
Adjusted goals0.03.7
Shot-based xG0.82.1
Non-shot xG2.01.2
5/12
Tottenham2
49%28%
Everton2
24%
TOTEVE
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.92.4
Non-shot xG0.81.3
5/12
Man. United0
51%25%
Cardiff City2
24%
MANCAR
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG2.01.7
Non-shot xG3.20.6
5/12
Liverpool2
85%12%
Wolverhampton0
4%
LIVWOL
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG2.01.1
Non-shot xG1.21.1
5/6
Man. City1
88%9%
Leicester City0
2%
MNCLEI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG2.30.4
5/5
Arsenal1
80%15%
Brighton1
5%
ARSBHA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.42.0
Non-shot xG2.71.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City98 pts
94.4
3.0
0.2
32.02.04.0+7298—✓✓
Liverpool97 pts
92.9
2.9
0.3
30.07.01.0+6797—✓—
Chelsea72 pts
85.4
2.4
0.5
21.09.08.0+2472—✓—
Tottenham71 pts
82.4
2.3
0.5
23.02.013.0+2871—✓—
Arsenal70 pts
77.4
2.4
0.8
21.07.010.0+2270———
Man. United66 pts
75.7
2.2
0.8
19.09.010.0+1166———
Wolverhampton57 pts
73.0
1.9
0.7
16.09.013.0+157———
Everton54 pts
78.1
2.0
0.6
15.09.014.0+854———
West Ham52 pts
66.6
1.9
1.0
15.07.016.0-352———
Leicester City52 pts
74.4
1.9
0.7
15.07.016.0+352———
Watford50 pts
65.5
2.0
1.1
14.08.016.0-750———
Crystal Palace49 pts
70.1
2.0
0.9
14.07.017.0-249———
Newcastle45 pts
68.9
1.8
0.8
12.09.017.0-645———
Bournemouth45 pts
66.7
2.1
1.1
13.06.019.0-1445———
Burnley40 pts
65.5
1.8
0.9
11.07.020.0-2340———
Southampton39 pts
66.0
1.9
1.0
9.012.017.0-2039———
Brighton36 pts
57.8
1.6
1.0
9.09.020.0-2536———
Cardiff City34 pts
59.5
1.6
1.0
10.04.024.0-3534✓——
Fulham26 pts
57.1
1.7
1.2
7.05.026.0-4726✓——
Huddersfield16 pts
51.8
1.4
1.1
3.07.028.0-5416✓——
Forecast from
Season

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