Updated Sept. 20, 2020, at 7:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2020-21

England

Updated Sept. 20, 2020, at 3:52 p.m.

Upcoming matches
September 15-21
9/21
Aston Villa
41%
28%
Sheffield Utd
31%
9/21
Wolves
15%
21%
Man. City
64%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
September 15-21
9/20
Leicester4
58%25%
Burnley2
18%
LEIBRN
Adjusted goals4.02.1
Shot-based xG1.01.7
Non-shot xG2.21.7
9/20
Chelsea0
34%23%
Liverpool2
43%
CHELIV
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.91.7
Non-shot xG0.42.6
9/20
Newcastle0
39%28%
Brighton3
32%
NEWBHA
Adjusted goals0.02.8
Shot-based xG0.61.9
Non-shot xG0.60.4
9/20
Southampton2
35%26%
Tottenham5
39%
SOUTOT
Adjusted goals2.14.9
Shot-based xG2.32.9
Non-shot xG0.70.8
9/19
Arsenal2
57%23%
West Ham1
20%
ARSWHU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG2.41.0
9/19
Man. United1
71%19%
Crystal Palace3
10%
MANCRY
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG1.31.9
Non-shot xG2.20.6
9/19
Leeds United4
45%27%
Fulham3
28%
LEEFUL
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG1.31.6
Non-shot xG0.91.1
9/19
Everton5
57%25%
West Brom2
18%
EVEWBA
Adjusted goals4.62.1
Shot-based xG3.50.3
Non-shot xG2.50.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City0 pts
94.1
3.1
0.2
+6589<1%95%57%
Liverpool6 pts
91.4
2.8
0.3
+4983<1%89%30%
Chelsea3 pts
84.2
2.4
0.5
+2367<1%46%4%
Man. United0 pts
85.4
2.4
0.5
+2367<1%45%4%
Leicester6 pts
79.6
2.2
0.6
+12611%25%1%
Arsenal6 pts
78.8
2.2
0.6
+11602%25%1%
Tottenham3 pts
78.6
2.2
0.7
+9583%19%<1%
Wolves3 pts
78.5
1.9
0.5
+5563%16%<1%
Everton6 pts
75.8
2.0
0.7
+4563%16%<1%
Crystal Palace6 pts
69.7
1.8
0.7
-8499%5%<1%
Brighton3 pts
70.3
1.8
0.7
-104614%4%<1%
Southampton0 pts
70.9
2.0
0.8
-124516%3%<1%
Burnley0 pts
69.2
1.8
0.8
-144420%3%<1%
West Ham0 pts
69.0
1.9
0.9
-154322%2%<1%
Sheffield Utd0 pts
68.4
1.7
0.7
-174125%2%<1%
Aston Villa0 pts
66.5
1.8
0.9
-184125%2%<1%
Leeds United3 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
-214028%1%<1%
Newcastle3 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
-214028%1%<1%
Fulham0 pts
61.8
1.7
1.0
-293544%<1%<1%
West Brom0 pts
58.2
1.6
1.1
-373158%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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