Updated June 16, 2018 at 10:01 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

league-logo

Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated May 26, 2018, at 4:42 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
5/13
Huddersfield0
15%21%
Arsenal1
64%
HUDARS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.52.0
Non-shot xG1.81.4
5/13
Swansea City1
40%31%
Stoke City2
28%
SWASTK
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.11.9
Non-shot xG3.30.6
5/13
Crystal Palace2
55%26%
West Brom0
20%
CRYWBA
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.10.2
Non-shot xG2.00.4
5/13
Southampton0
13%20%
Man. City1
68%
SOUMNC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.9
Non-shot xG0.91.4
5/13
Burnley1
48%27%
Bournemouth2
25%
BRNBOU
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.41.6
Non-shot xG1.51.2
5/13
West Ham3
39%27%
Everton1
33%
WHUEVE
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.21.8
Non-shot xG2.01.1
5/13
Newcastle3
22%26%
Chelsea0
53%
NEWCHE
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG1.01.2
5/13
Tottenham5
75%17%
Leicester City4
8%
TOTLEI
Adjusted goals5.34.2
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG1.51.8
5/13
Man. United1
67%21%
Watford0
11%
MANWAT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.50.7
Non-shot xG0.91.5
5/13
Liverpool4
84%12%
Brighton0
4%
LIVBHA
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG4.10.1
Non-shot xG3.00.3
5/10
West Ham0
21%24%
Man. United0
55%
WHUMAN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG1.41.8
5/9
Man. City3
88%10%
Brighton1
2%
MNCBHA
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG2.70.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City100 pts
90.0
2.9
0.5
32.04.02.0+79100
Man. United81 pts
77.6
2.1
0.6
25.06.07.0+4081
Tottenham77 pts
82.5
2.5
0.7
23.08.07.0+3877
Liverpool75 pts
87.8
2.9
0.6
21.012.05.0+4675
Chelsea70 pts
78.5
2.3
0.7
21.07.010.0+2470
Arsenal63 pts
80.5
2.8
0.9
19.06.013.0+2363
Burnley54 pts
58.6
1.5
0.9
14.012.012.0-354
Everton49 pts
60.0
1.7
1.0
13.010.015.0-1449
Leicester City47 pts
64.3
1.9
1.0
12.011.015.0-447
Crystal Palace44 pts
67.2
1.9
0.9
11.011.016.0-1044
Newcastle44 pts
62.0
1.6
0.9
12.08.018.0-844
Bournemouth44 pts
57.3
1.8
1.2
11.011.016.0-1644
West Ham42 pts
57.1
1.7
1.2
10.012.016.0-2042
Watford41 pts
58.7
1.6
1.0
11.08.019.0-2041
Brighton40 pts
54.4
1.4
1.0
9.013.016.0-2040
Huddersfield37 pts
49.2
1.2
1.0
9.010.019.0-3037
Southampton36 pts
60.3
1.6
0.9
7.015.016.0-1936
Stoke City33 pts
52.0
1.4
1.2
7.012.019.0-3333
Swansea City33 pts
49.2
1.3
1.1
8.09.021.0-2833
West Brom31 pts
54.7
1.4
1.0
6.013.019.0-2531
Forecast from
Season

Comments