Updated Sept. 22, 2019, at 10:00 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated Sept. 22, 2019, at 1:27 p.m.

Upcoming matches
September 24-30
9/28
Sheffield Utd
11%
18%
Liverpool
71%
9/28
Aston Villa
41%
27%
Burnley
32%
9/28
Chelsea
71%
19%
Brighton
10%
9/28
Tottenham
67%
20%
Southampton
13%
9/28
Crystal Palace
51%
25%
Norwich
24%
9/28
Wolves
50%
24%
Watford
26%
9/28
Bournemouth
45%
24%
West Ham
31%
9/28
Everton
12%
18%
Man. City
70%
9/29
Leicester
56%
26%
Newcastle
18%
9/30
Man. United
49%
23%
Arsenal
28%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
September 17-23
9/22
Arsenal3
66%20%
Aston Villa2
14%
ARSAVL
Adjusted goals3.21.9
Shot-based xG2.31.8
Non-shot xG2.31.3
9/22
Chelsea1
30%23%
Liverpool2
46%
CHELIV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.11.6
9/22
Crystal Palace1
44%27%
Wolves1
29%
CRYWOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.7
Non-shot xG1.71.3
9/22
West Ham2
28%25%
Man. United0
48%
WHUMAN
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG0.51.3
Non-shot xG0.61.1
9/21
Newcastle0
47%28%
Brighton0
25%
NEWBHA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.81.4
Non-shot xG0.91.2
9/21
Burnley2
49%26%
Norwich0
25%
BRNNOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.40.8
Non-shot xG1.91.5
9/21
Man. City8
89%8%
Watford0
3%
MNCWAT
Adjusted goals8.00.0
Shot-based xG7.10.3
Non-shot xG3.80.7
9/21
Everton0
58%25%
Sheffield Utd2
17%
EVESHEF
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.70.3
9/21
Leicester2
32%26%
Tottenham1
41%
LEITOT
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG1.61.2
9/20
Southampton1
45%24%
Bournemouth3
31%
SOUBOU
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG2.61.3
Non-shot xG1.70.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City13 pts
95.5
3.3
0.2
+7990<1%>99%58%
Liverpool18 pts
92.4
2.8
0.3
+5588<1%97%39%
Chelsea8 pts
84.1
2.5
0.6
+1965<1%44%<1%
Tottenham8 pts
83.7
2.4
0.5
+2364<1%43%1%
Man. United8 pts
82.2
2.2
0.5
+14601%28%<1%
Arsenal11 pts
78.6
2.4
0.8
+10611%31%<1%
Leicester11 pts
77.5
2.0
0.6
+5572%18%<1%
West Ham11 pts
70.2
1.9
0.8
-8508%7%<1%
Everton7 pts
76.5
2.0
0.6
-6508%8%<1%
Bournemouth10 pts
68.6
2.1
1.0
-104910%6%<1%
Crystal Palace8 pts
70.0
1.9
0.8
-144615%4%<1%
Burnley8 pts
69.6
1.8
0.8
-114516%4%<1%
Southampton7 pts
69.7
1.9
0.8
-144518%3%<1%
Wolves4 pts
71.9
1.9
0.7
-124419%2%<1%
Newcastle5 pts
67.9
1.7
0.8
-174128%1%<1%
Sheffield Utd8 pts
65.0
1.7
0.9
-194029%1%<1%
Brighton6 pts
66.7
1.7
0.8
-194031%1%<1%
Norwich6 pts
63.3
1.8
1.0
-234032%1%<1%
Watford2 pts
65.6
2.0
1.1
-293840%<1%<1%
Aston Villa4 pts
64.6
1.7
0.9
-223741%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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