Updated Jan. 19, 2020, at 8:16 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated Jan. 18, 2020, at 2:27 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 14-20
1/19
Burnley
29%
26%
Leicester
45%
1/19
Liverpool
65%
20%
Man. United
15%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 14-20
1/18
Newcastle1
16%21%
Chelsea0
62%
NEWCHE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.82.2
Non-shot xG0.82.3
1/18
Norwich1
37%27%
Bournemouth0
36%
NORBOU
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.41.4
1/18
Brighton1
53%24%
Aston Villa1
24%
BHAAVL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.6
Non-shot xG1.40.8
1/18
Southampton2
38%27%
Wolves3
35%
SOUWOL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.72.6
Non-shot xG1.01.1
1/18
Arsenal1
51%26%
Sheffield Utd1
23%
ARSSHEF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG1.01.2
1/18
West Ham1
36%26%
Everton1
38%
WHUEVE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.6
Non-shot xG1.21.3
1/18
Man. City2
86%11%
Crystal Palace2
4%
MNCCRY
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG3.10.7
Non-shot xG5.40.7
1/18
Watford0
34%25%
Tottenham0
41%
WATTOT
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.41.9
Non-shot xG1.81.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool61 pts
94.3
3.0
0.2
+64100—>99%99%
Man. City48 pts
93.9
3.3
0.3
+6282<1%>99%1%
Leicester45 pts
81.0
2.2
0.6
+3271<1%87%<1%
Chelsea39 pts
85.7
2.5
0.5
+1866<1%64%<1%
Man. United34 pts
82.1
2.2
0.5
+1659<1%22%<1%
Wolves34 pts
78.6
2.0
0.5
+756<1%10%<1%
Tottenham31 pts
81.0
2.3
0.6
+1156<1%10%<1%
Sheffield Utd33 pts
73.5
1.8
0.6
+152<1%3%<1%
Everton29 pts
78.5
2.0
0.6
-551<1%2%<1%
Arsenal29 pts
76.1
2.1
0.7
-3491%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace30 pts
69.8
1.8
0.7
-9482%<1%<1%
Southampton28 pts
70.5
2.0
0.8
-16474%<1%<1%
Newcastle29 pts
62.3
1.6
0.9
-224410%<1%<1%
Brighton25 pts
71.2
1.9
0.7
-94312%<1%<1%
Burnley24 pts
67.9
1.8
0.8
-204218%<1%<1%
Watford23 pts
73.1
1.9
0.7
-174218%<1%<1%
West Ham23 pts
66.7
1.9
1.0
-193930%<1%<1%
Aston Villa22 pts
61.3
1.9
1.2
-263748%<1%<1%
Bournemouth20 pts
63.2
1.7
1.0
-273465%<1%<1%
Norwich17 pts
59.2
1.7
1.1
-372990%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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