Updated Nov. 3, 2020, at 5:00 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2020-21

England

Updated Nov. 3, 2020, at 4:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
November 3-9
11/6
Brighton
46%
27%
Burnley
27%
11/6
Southampton
52%
25%
Newcastle
23%
11/7
Everton
30%
25%
Man. United
45%
11/7
Crystal Palace
40%
27%
Leeds United
33%
11/7
Chelsea
69%
20%
Sheffield Utd
11%
11/7
West Ham
56%
24%
Fulham
20%
11/8
West Brom
19%
23%
Tottenham
57%
11/8
Leicester
51%
27%
Wolves
22%
11/8
Man. City
53%
22%
Liverpool
26%
11/8
Arsenal
55%
24%
Aston Villa
21%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 27 - November 2
11/2
Leeds United1
29%25%
Leicester4
46%
LEELEI
Adjusted goals1.13.5
Shot-based xG1.23.0
Non-shot xG1.51.8
11/2
Fulham2
44%27%
West Brom0
29%
FULWBA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.5
Non-shot xG0.80.9
11/1
Tottenham2
58%23%
Brighton1
20%
TOTBHA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG0.71.2
11/1
Man. United0
52%24%
Arsenal1
24%
MANARS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
11/1
Newcastle2
29%26%
Everton1
45%
NEWEVE
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG2.31.4
Non-shot xG1.01.6
11/1
Aston Villa3
40%26%
Southampton4
34%
AVLSOU
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG2.30.9
Non-shot xG1.90.7
10/31
Liverpool2
65%19%
West Ham1
16%
LIVWHU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG1.60.3
10/31
Burnley0
22%24%
Chelsea3
54%
BRNCHE
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.51.3
Non-shot xG0.91.8
10/31
Sheffield Utd0
10%18%
Man. City1
72%
SHEFMNC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.8
Non-shot xG0.41.9
10/30
Wolves2
49%29%
Crystal Palace0
22%
WOLCRY
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG2.01.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City11 pts
93.0
2.9
0.3
+4983<1%93%52%
Liverpool16 pts
88.6
2.8
0.5
+3578<1%82%28%
Chelsea12 pts
85.2
2.4
0.5
+2767<1%49%6%
Leicester15 pts
79.9
2.2
0.6
+1763<1%33%3%
Tottenham14 pts
80.5
2.3
0.6
+1863<1%31%3%
Man. United7 pts
83.8
2.4
0.5
+1362<1%30%3%
Arsenal12 pts
80.7
2.1
0.5
+1362<1%28%2%
Everton13 pts
75.2
2.1
0.7
+3562%13%<1%
Wolves13 pts
76.1
1.8
0.5
-3543%9%<1%
Southampton13 pts
73.4
2.0
0.8
-2543%9%<1%
Aston Villa12 pts
71.4
2.0
0.9
-2525%7%<1%
West Ham8 pts
74.4
2.1
0.7
+4515%7%<1%
Leeds United10 pts
67.5
1.9
0.9
-124612%3%<1%
Crystal Palace10 pts
66.3
1.7
0.8
-184317%1%<1%
Newcastle11 pts
65.5
1.7
0.9
-184317%1%<1%
Brighton5 pts
71.0
1.9
0.8
-114318%2%<1%
Burnley1 pt
67.3
1.7
0.8
-243543%<1%<1%
Sheffield Utd1 pt
67.4
1.7
0.7
-203545%<1%<1%
Fulham4 pts
61.4
1.7
1.0
-323257%<1%<1%
West Brom3 pts
59.0
1.6
1.0
-372969%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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