Updated Oct. 14, 2018 at 7:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Oct. 7, 2018, at 1:24 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/20
Chelsea
56%
23%
Man. United
20%
10/20
Newcastle
47%
28%
Brighton
24%
10/20
Man. City
92%
7%
Burnley
1%
10/20
West Ham
21%
24%
Tottenham
55%
10/20
Wolverhampton
44%
29%
Watford
27%
10/20
Cardiff City
41%
28%
Fulham
30%
10/20
Bournemouth
47%
26%
Southampton
27%
10/20
Huddersfield
10%
20%
Liverpool
69%
10/21
Everton
44%
28%
Crystal Palace
28%
10/22
Arsenal
63%
21%
Leicester City
16%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/7
Liverpool0
38%26%
Man. City0
37%
LIVMNC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG0.80.6
10/7
Southampton0
20%24%
Chelsea3
56%
SOUCHE
Adjusted goals0.02.6
Shot-based xG1.73.5
Non-shot xG0.62.5
10/7
Fulham1
21%22%
Arsenal5
57%
FULARS
Adjusted goals1.14.5
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.01.3
10/6
Man. United3
62%24%
Newcastle2
14%
MANNEW
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.61.6
Non-shot xG3.51.4
10/6
Watford0
49%26%
Bournemouth4
25%
WATBOU
Adjusted goals0.03.6
Shot-based xG1.23.5
Non-shot xG1.21.5
10/6
Leicester City1
51%26%
Everton2
23%
LEIEVE
Adjusted goals1.11.9
Shot-based xG1.21.2
Non-shot xG1.01.4
10/6
Crystal Palace0
46%29%
Wolverhampton1
26%
CRYWOL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.80.5
10/6
Burnley1
48%30%
Huddersfield1
23%
BRNHUD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.1
Non-shot xG0.81.1
10/6
Tottenham1
80%15%
Cardiff City0
5%
TOTCAR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.21.3
Non-shot xG2.20.5
10/5
Brighton1
43%28%
West Ham0
30%
BHAWHU
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.02.3
10/1
Bournemouth2
42%27%
Crystal Palace1
32%
BOUCRY
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.00.4
Non-shot xG1.31.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City20 pts
93.8
2.9
0.2
27.67.23.2+6890<1%97%54%
Liverpool20 pts
90.6
2.7
0.3
25.97.94.2+5286<1%93%28%
Chelsea20 pts
86.7
2.5
0.5
23.28.56.2+4178<1%76%10%
Tottenham18 pts
84.2
2.4
0.5
22.16.89.1+3073<1%56%4%
Arsenal18 pts
81.2
2.5
0.7
21.66.69.9+2971<1%49%3%
Man. United13 pts
79.4
2.3
0.7
17.78.112.2+1061<1%15%<1%
Bournemouth16 pts
67.3
2.0
1.0
14.78.215.1-6522%4%<1%
Leicester City12 pts
71.5
1.9
0.8
14.77.715.6-1523%3%<1%
Wolverhampton15 pts
68.2
1.7
0.8
13.411.113.5-5513%3%<1%
Watford13 pts
67.2
1.8
0.9
13.38.716.0-11495%1%<1%
Everton12 pts
67.9
1.8
0.9
12.210.715.0-9476%1%<1%
West Ham7 pts
66.0
1.8
0.9
11.58.817.7-144314%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace7 pts
67.8
1.8
0.8
11.38.817.9-144314%<1%<1%
Brighton8 pts
62.6
1.7
1.0
10.59.817.7-174119%<1%<1%
Southampton5 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
9.89.718.5-203925%<1%<1%
Newcastle2 pts
65.6
1.7
0.8
9.310.118.6-163828%<1%<1%
Fulham5 pts
60.6
1.7
1.1
8.99.419.7-293636%<1%<1%
Burnley8 pts
59.9
1.6
1.0
8.99.219.8-253635%<1%<1%
Huddersfield3 pts
59.4
1.5
0.9
6.911.120.0-323253%<1%<1%
Cardiff City2 pts
59.0
1.6
1.0
7.39.820.9-323254%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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