Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 9:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated Sep. 23, 2017 at 2:26 PM

Upcoming matches
9/24
Brighton
36%
31%
Newcastle
34%
9/25
Arsenal
68%
20%
West Brom
11%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/23
Leicester City2
29%25%
Liverpool3
46%
LEILIV
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.72.0
Non-shot xG0.72.0
9/23
Swansea City1
44%29%
Watford2
27%
SWAWAT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG1.10.8
9/23
Stoke City0
22%24%
Chelsea4
54%
STKCHE
Adjusted goals0.03.7
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG1.31.3
9/23
Southampton0
19%25%
Man. United1
56%
SOUMAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
9/23
Burnley0
57%27%
Huddersfield0
16%
BRNHUD
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.3
Non-shot xG0.70.5
9/23
Man. City5
86%11%
Crystal Palace0
3%
MNCCRY
Adjusted goals4.50.0
Shot-based xG5.00.6
Non-shot xG3.80.5
9/23
Everton2
54%25%
Bournemouth1
21%
EVEBOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.3
Non-shot xG2.11.5
9/23
West Ham2
20%24%
Tottenham3
56%
WHUTOT
Adjusted goals1.73.2
Shot-based xG1.01.6
Non-shot xG1.10.9
9/17
Man. United4
70%20%
Everton0
10%
MANEVE
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG3.01.3
Non-shot xG1.80.6
9/17
Chelsea0
55%22%
Arsenal0
23%
CHEARS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.91.6
Non-shot xG0.81.2
9/16
Tottenham0
78%16%
Swansea City0
6%
TOTSWA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.50.2
Non-shot xG2.20.2
9/16
Huddersfield1
29%28%
Leicester City1
43%
HUDLEI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG1.61.1
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City16 pts
89.5
3.0
0.5
27.36.64.1+6989<1%96%53%
Man. United16 pts
85.0
2.5
0.5
24.87.85.4+5182<1%85%24%
Chelsea13 pts
83.6
2.6
0.6
23.77.66.7+4379<1%77%14%
Tottenham11 pts
81.2
2.4
0.6
21.29.17.6+3473<1%57%5%
Liverpool11 pts
77.0
2.4
0.8
19.79.29.1+2268<1%37%2%
Arsenal7 pts
77.6
2.4
0.8
19.68.310.1+2367<1%34%2%
Everton7 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
14.09.414.6-7515%4%<1%
Watford11 pts
56.4
1.6
1.1
12.110.115.8-16469%1%<1%
Burnley9 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
11.911.714.4-8488%2%<1%
Southampton8 pts
61.7
1.6
0.9
12.110.615.3-9479%2%<1%
Leicester City4 pts
62.2
1.8
1.1
12.39.116.6-74611%1%<1%
Stoke City5 pts
59.9
1.6
1.0
11.510.316.2-134513%<1%<1%
Swansea City5 pts
54.6
1.5
1.1
9.610.318.1-213927%<1%<1%
Huddersfield9 pts
48.0
1.2
1.1
8.411.218.4-253635%<1%<1%
Newcastle9 pts
55.9
1.5
1.1
11.98.517.6-154413%<1%<1%
West Brom8 pts
55.6
1.4
1.0
10.510.916.6-174217%<1%<1%
West Ham4 pts
58.5
1.7
1.1
10.99.018.1-184220%<1%<1%
Bournemouth3 pts
54.1
1.6
1.2
9.67.920.6-253735%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace0 pts
54.3
1.5
1.1
8.48.121.5-313348%<1%<1%
Brighton4 pts
47.9
1.2
1.1
7.99.520.7-293349%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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