Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Premier League
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/21
Swansea City2
47%29%
West Brom1
25%
SWAWBA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.01.3
Non-shot xG1.91.0
5/21
Watford0
10%18%
Man. City5
72%
WATMNC
Adjusted goals0.05.3
Shot-based xG0.94.1
Non-shot xG0.53.1
5/21
Leicester City1
44%26%
Bournemouth1
30%
LEIBOU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.70.8
Non-shot xG2.81.4
5/21
Hull City1
6%15%
Tottenham7
79%
HCYTOT
Adjusted goals1.16.5
Shot-based xG1.04.0
Non-shot xG0.73.1
5/21
Southampton0
49%28%
Stoke City1
23%
SOUSTK
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG1.81.8
5/21
Burnley1
47%28%
West Ham2
26%
BRNWHU
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
5/21
Arsenal3
60%22%
Everton1
18%
ARSEVE
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG3.32.1
Non-shot xG2.61.9
5/21
Man. United2
68%22%
Crystal Palace0
10%
MANCRY
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.01.1
5/21
Liverpool3
77%16%
Middlesbrough0
6%
LIVMID
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG2.01.0
5/21
Chelsea5
84%12%
Sunderland1
4%
CHESUN
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG2.60.5
Non-shot xG4.10.1
5/18
Leicester City1
17%24%
Tottenham6
58%
LEITOT
Adjusted goals1.15.3
Shot-based xG0.82.8
Non-shot xG0.81.9
5/17
Southampton0
25%29%
Man. United0
46%
SOUMAN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
See all▾
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Chelsea93 pts
2.6
0.8
30.03.05.0+5293—✓✓
Tottenham86 pts
2.5
0.7
26.08.04.0+6086—✓—
Man. City78 pts
2.7
0.7
23.09.06.0+4178—✓—
Liverpool76 pts
2.3
0.8
22.010.06.0+3676—✓—
Arsenal75 pts
2.5
1.0
23.06.09.0+3375———
Man. United69 pts
1.9
0.7
18.015.05.0+2569———
Everton61 pts
1.8
1.0
17.010.011.0+1861———
Southampton46 pts
1.5
1.0
12.010.016.0-746———
Bournemouth46 pts
1.7
1.3
12.010.016.0-1246———
West Ham45 pts
1.5
1.2
12.09.017.0-1745———
West Brom45 pts
1.3
1.1
12.09.017.0-845———
Stoke City44 pts
1.5
1.1
11.011.016.0-1544———
Leicester City44 pts
1.6
1.2
12.08.018.0-1544———
Swansea City41 pts
1.5
1.2
12.05.021.0-2541———
Crystal Palace41 pts
1.5
1.2
12.05.021.0-1341———
Burnley40 pts
1.4
1.2
11.07.020.0-1640———
Watford40 pts
1.4
1.3
11.07.020.0-2840———
Hull City34 pts
1.3
1.6
9.07.022.0-4334✓——
Middlesbrough28 pts
1.1
1.3
5.013.020.0-2628✓——
Sunderland24 pts
1.1
1.4
6.06.026.0-4024✓——
Forecast from

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