Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2020-21

England

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
December 1-7
12/5
Burnley
36%
27%
Everton
37%
12/5
Man. City
89%
9%
Fulham
2%
12/5
West Ham
28%
24%
Man. United
48%
12/5
Chelsea
71%
18%
Leeds United
11%
12/6
West Brom
34%
29%
Crystal Palace
38%
12/6
Sheffield Utd
28%
26%
Leicester
46%
12/6
Tottenham
56%
24%
Arsenal
21%
12/6
Liverpool
63%
22%
Wolves
15%
12/7
Brighton
42%
27%
Southampton
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
November 24-30
11/30
West Ham2
45%25%
Aston Villa1
30%
WHUAVL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.72.5
Non-shot xG0.61.8
11/30
Leicester1
64%21%
Fulham2
15%
LEIFUL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.9
Non-shot xG1.41.1
11/29
Arsenal1
49%28%
Wolves2
23%
ARSWOL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.22.2
Non-shot xG1.71.2
11/29
Chelsea0
48%24%
Tottenham0
29%
CHETOT
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.00.2
Non-shot xG1.10.9
11/29
Southampton2
28%25%
Man. United3
48%
SOUMAN
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.52.8
Non-shot xG0.41.8
11/28
West Brom1
34%30%
Sheffield Utd0
35%
WBASHEF
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.73.4
Non-shot xG1.22.2
11/28
Everton0
51%24%
Leeds United1
25%
EVELEE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.63.2
Non-shot xG1.82.0
11/28
Man. City5
84%12%
Burnley0
4%
MNCBRN
Adjusted goals5.30.0
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG2.20.7
11/28
Brighton1
18%21%
Liverpool1
61%
BHALIV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.20.3
Non-shot xG1.30.6
11/27
Crystal Palace0
44%28%
Newcastle2
28%
CRYNEW
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.61.4
Non-shot xG2.01.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City15 pts
93.9
2.9
0.2
+5182<1%93%51%
Liverpool21 pts
87.7
2.7
0.5
+3376<1%79%22%
Chelsea19 pts
87.6
2.5
0.4
+3471<1%63%11%
Tottenham21 pts
84.0
2.4
0.5
+2870<1%56%8%
Man. United16 pts
84.2
2.4
0.5
+1666<1%40%5%
Leicester18 pts
77.8
2.2
0.7
+959<1%19%1%
West Ham17 pts
74.2
2.0
0.7
+5552%10%<1%
Wolves17 pts
76.8
1.9
0.5
-1552%8%<1%
Arsenal13 pts
78.0
2.1
0.6
+2542%8%<1%
Aston Villa15 pts
73.9
2.1
0.8
+3533%8%<1%
Southampton17 pts
73.0
2.0
0.8
-2533%6%<1%
Everton16 pts
72.5
2.1
0.8
-4514%5%<1%
Leeds United14 pts
69.1
2.0
0.9
-11478%2%<1%
Brighton10 pts
73.6
1.9
0.7
-64610%1%<1%
Newcastle14 pts
65.8
1.7
0.8
-184316%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace13 pts
66.2
1.7
0.9
-194219%<1%<1%
Burnley5 pts
66.0
1.7
0.8
-273643%<1%<1%
Fulham7 pts
63.4
1.8
1.0
-293451%<1%<1%
Sheffield Utd1 pt
65.6
1.7
0.8
-263064%<1%<1%
West Brom6 pts
57.7
1.5
1.0
-372973%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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