Updated Aug. 15, 2018 at 8:27 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Aug. 12, 2018, at 12:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/18
Cardiff City
36%
29%
Newcastle
34%
8/18
Everton
45%
28%
Southampton
27%
8/18
Tottenham
79%
15%
Fulham
6%
8/18
West Ham
45%
26%
Bournemouth
29%
8/18
Leicester City
52%
26%
Wolverhampton
21%
8/18
Chelsea
51%
24%
Arsenal
26%
8/19
Man. City
89%
10%
Huddersfield
2%
8/19
Burnley
42%
30%
Watford
28%
8/19
Brighton
22%
26%
Man. United
52%
8/20
Crystal Palace
19%
23%
Liverpool
58%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/12
Arsenal0
28%23%
Man. City2
49%
ARSMNC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.51.8
Non-shot xG1.41.3
8/12
Southampton0
47%29%
Burnley0
24%
SOUBRN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.91.6
Non-shot xG1.51.4
8/12
Liverpool4
82%13%
West Ham0
5%
LIVWHU
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG3.90.4
Non-shot xG2.40.7
8/11
Wolverhampton2
40%28%
Everton2
32%
WOLEVE
Adjusted goals1.72.1
Shot-based xG0.90.8
Non-shot xG0.50.7
8/11
Bournemouth2
49%27%
Cardiff City0
25%
BOUCAR
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.21.0
Non-shot xG2.31.2
8/11
Huddersfield0
16%24%
Chelsea3
59%
HUDCHE
Adjusted goals0.02.9
Shot-based xG0.52.2
Non-shot xG0.91.4
8/11
Watford2
47%28%
Brighton0
25%
WATBHA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG2.11.0
8/11
Fulham0
39%28%
Crystal Palace2
33%
FULCRY
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.60.9
Non-shot xG1.41.2
8/11
Newcastle1
20%24%
Tottenham2
56%
NEWTOT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG1.61.5
8/10
Man. United2
64%22%
Leicester City1
14%
MANLEI
Adjusted goals1.81.1
Shot-based xG1.51.7
Non-shot xG0.71.8
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City3 pts
92.5
2.8
0.2
26.76.84.5+5887<1%93%49%
Liverpool3 pts
89.5
2.7
0.4
24.47.46.2+4980<1%81%24%
Tottenham3 pts
85.7
2.5
0.5
21.98.27.9+3474<1%63%11%
Chelsea3 pts
85.1
2.4
0.5
21.28.58.3+3372<1%57%8%
Man. United3 pts
81.6
2.2
0.5
18.89.210.0+1966<1%36%4%
Arsenal0 pts
81.0
2.5
0.7
18.98.310.8+2165<1%35%3%
Crystal Palace3 pts
71.2
1.9
0.8
14.29.614.3-2526%8%<1%
Leicester City0 pts
70.9
1.9
0.8
13.49.615.0-4508%6%<1%
Watford3 pts
67.3
1.8
0.8
12.49.815.9-104712%4%<1%
Everton1 pt
67.9
1.8
0.8
11.910.715.5-104613%3%<1%
Southampton1 pt
67.3
1.7
0.8
11.210.915.9-124416%2%<1%
Newcastle0 pts
67.3
1.8
0.8
11.59.816.7-124416%2%<1%
Bournemouth3 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
11.69.117.3-164418%2%<1%
Burnley1 pt
65.9
1.7
0.8
10.811.016.2-134318%2%<1%
West Ham0 pts
63.4
1.8
1.0
10.99.517.6-194222%2%<1%
Wolverhampton1 pt
62.7
1.7
0.9
9.910.617.5-194026%1%<1%
Fulham0 pts
63.7
1.7
0.9
10.19.618.3-204027%<1%<1%
Brighton0 pts
61.9
1.6
0.9
9.59.618.8-233832%<1%<1%
Cardiff City0 pts
58.6
1.6
1.0
8.69.420.0-283542%<1%<1%
Huddersfield0 pts
59.3
1.5
0.9
8.410.019.7-283542%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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