Updated July 6, 2020, at 12:02 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated July 5, 2020, at 3:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches
June 30 - July 6
7/6
Tottenham
39%
26%
Everton
35%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
June 30 - July 6
7/5
Southampton1
22%21%
Man. City0
57%
SOUMNC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.73.6
Non-shot xG0.53.4
7/5
Liverpool2
79%14%
Aston Villa0
7%
LIVAVL
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.30.6
Non-shot xG1.80.8
7/5
Newcastle2
34%26%
West Ham2
40%
NEWWHU
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG1.61.7
7/5
Burnley1
39%30%
Sheffield Utd1
31%
BRNSHEF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.5
Non-shot xG0.91.3
7/4
Chelsea3
62%21%
Watford0
17%
CHEWAT
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.71.2
Non-shot xG1.40.4
7/4
Wolves0
50%28%
Arsenal2
22%
WOLARS
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.20.8
7/4
Leicester3
61%24%
Crystal Palace0
14%
LEICRY
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.60.8
Non-shot xG1.20.9
7/4
Man. United5
79%15%
Bournemouth2
7%
MANBOU
Adjusted goals5.32.1
Shot-based xG2.51.7
Non-shot xG2.50.5
7/4
Norwich0
27%28%
Brighton1
44%
NORBHA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.41.2
7/2
Man. City4
42%24%
Liverpool0
34%
MNCLIV
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.70.8
Non-shot xG1.61.4
7/2
Sheffield Utd3
27%27%
Tottenham1
46%
SHEFTOT
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.31.4
7/1
West Ham3
17%21%
Chelsea2
62%
WHUCHE
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG1.62.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool89 pts
91.9
2.8
0.3
+5299—✓✓
Man. City66 pts
95.1
3.2
0.2
+5778———
Chelsea57 pts
86.2
2.5
0.5
+2066—94%—
Leicester58 pts
82.4
2.2
0.5
+3466—94%—
Man. United55 pts
88.3
2.5
0.4
+2865—92%—
Wolves52 pts
81.4
1.9
0.4
+1060—16%—
Arsenal49 pts
79.4
2.1
0.6
+856—2%—
Tottenham45 pts
75.8
2.2
0.8
+854—<1%—
Everton44 pts
77.8
2.0
0.6
-553—<1%—
Sheffield Utd48 pts
70.5
1.7
0.7
-253—<1%—
Burnley46 pts
70.0
1.8
0.7
-1152—<1%—
Southampton43 pts
71.1
1.9
0.8
-1449—<1%—
Newcastle43 pts
64.3
1.7
0.9
-1447—<1%—
Crystal Palace42 pts
69.1
1.7
0.7
-1547—<1%—
Brighton36 pts
71.0
1.8
0.7
-1142<1%——
West Ham31 pts
67.3
2.0
1.0
-18388%——
Watford28 pts
70.3
1.9
0.8
-243432%——
Aston Villa27 pts
63.0
1.8
1.0
-293275%——
Bournemouth27 pts
61.7
1.8
1.1
-323185%——
Norwich21 pts
58.5
1.6
1.0
-4225>99%——
Forecast from
Season

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