Updated March 23, 2020, at 6:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated March 12, 2020, at 5:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 7-13
4/13
Wolves
48%
26%
Arsenal
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/9
Leicester4
65%20%
Aston Villa0
15%
LEIAVL
Adjusted goals3.60.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG1.80.3
3/8
Man. United2
30%23%
Man. City0
47%
MANMNC
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG0.71.1
3/8
Chelsea4
57%23%
Everton0
20%
CHEEVE
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG1.50.3
3/7
Burnley1
29%25%
Tottenham1
45%
BRNTOT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.31.2
Non-shot xG2.01.0
3/7
Sheffield Utd1
58%26%
Norwich0
16%
SHEFNOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG1.30.9
3/7
Wolves0
62%23%
Brighton0
15%
WOLBHA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.3
Non-shot xG0.81.1
3/7
Crystal Palace1
37%28%
Watford0
35%
CRYWAT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.5
Non-shot xG1.61.3
3/7
Southampton0
55%25%
Newcastle1
20%
SOUNEW
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG0.33.4
Non-shot xG1.00.9
3/7
Arsenal1
56%22%
West Ham0
22%
ARSWHU
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.71.6
Non-shot xG1.21.4
3/7
Liverpool2
83%12%
Bournemouth1
5%
LIVBOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG1.80.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool82 pts
91.9
2.9
0.3
+56101—✓>99%
Man. City57 pts
94.8
3.2
0.2
+5581——<1%
Leicester53 pts
81.6
2.2
0.5
+3367—95%—
Chelsea48 pts
85.5
2.4
0.5
+1764<1%79%—
Man. United45 pts
86.2
2.4
0.4
+2262<1%75%—
Wolves43 pts
80.5
2.0
0.5
+1057<1%23%—
Sheffield Utd43 pts
73.3
1.8
0.6
+355<1%11%—
Tottenham41 pts
76.6
2.2
0.8
+955<1%11%—
Arsenal40 pts
76.8
2.1
0.7
+353<1%5%—
Everton37 pts
77.7
2.1
0.6
-751<1%1%—
Burnley39 pts
71.2
1.8
0.7
-1049<1%<1%—
Crystal Palace39 pts
70.3
1.8
0.7
-1148<1%<1%—
Southampton34 pts
68.3
1.9
0.9
-21444%<1%—
Newcastle35 pts
62.7
1.6
0.9
-22444%<1%—
Brighton29 pts
70.6
1.9
0.8
-123919%<1%—
Watford27 pts
72.8
1.9
0.7
-183925%<1%—
West Ham27 pts
67.3
1.9
1.0
-173831%<1%—
Bournemouth27 pts
64.1
1.8
1.0
-243651%<1%—
Aston Villa25 pts
59.6
1.8
1.2
-303471%<1%—
Norwich21 pts
61.6
1.7
1.0
-343094%<1%—
Forecast from
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