Updated Jan. 19, 2019, at 4:46 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Jan. 19, 2019, at 2:32 p.m.

Upcoming matches
1/20
Huddersfield
7%
16%
Man. City
77%
1/20
Fulham
17%
22%
Tottenham
61%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
1/19
Arsenal2
36%27%
Chelsea0
38%
ARSCHE
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.21.0
Non-shot xG1.72.3
1/19
Bournemouth2
44%26%
West Ham0
31%
BOUWHU
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.20.9
Non-shot xG0.91.8
1/19
Watford0
53%25%
Burnley0
22%
WATBRN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG1.31.2
1/19
Southampton2
42%27%
Everton1
31%
SOUEVE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.0
Non-shot xG1.01.4
1/19
Newcastle3
48%29%
Cardiff City0
23%
NEWCAR
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG1.50.9
1/19
Man. United2
69%20%
Brighton1
11%
MANBHA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.70.9
Non-shot xG1.60.9
1/19
Liverpool4
87%11%
Crystal Palace3
2%
LIVCRY
Adjusted goals3.72.9
Shot-based xG2.91.0
Non-shot xG2.20.9
1/19
Wolverhampton4
40%31%
Leicester City3
29%
WOLLEI
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.11.5
Non-shot xG1.51.5
1/14
Man. City3
85%12%
Wolverhampton0
3%
MNCWOL
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.70.1
Non-shot xG4.20.2
1/13
Tottenham0
52%24%
Man. United1
25%
TOTMAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.10.9
Non-shot xG3.00.6
1/13
Everton2
51%25%
Bournemouth0
25%
EVEBOU
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.71.8
Non-shot xG1.91.8
1/12
Chelsea2
78%17%
Newcastle1
5%
CHENEW
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.31.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool60 pts
92.6
2.9
0.3
30.05.52.5+6795—>99%74%
Man. City53 pts
92.8
3.1
0.3
28.54.74.8+6990—>99%25%
Tottenham48 pts
85.3
2.5
0.5
25.03.49.5+3779<1%85%<1%
Chelsea47 pts
84.9
2.3
0.4
22.08.57.5+3174<1%64%<1%
Arsenal44 pts
79.8
2.4
0.7
20.48.49.1+2470<1%28%<1%
Man. United44 pts
79.5
2.3
0.7
20.18.69.4+2069<1%23%<1%
Wolverhampton32 pts
68.5
1.8
0.8
14.19.014.9-651<1%<1%<1%
Watford33 pts
69.8
2.0
0.9
13.99.614.5-551<1%<1%<1%
Leicester City31 pts
69.9
1.8
0.8
13.87.816.4-549<1%<1%<1%
Everton30 pts
71.0
1.9
0.8
12.99.915.2-249<1%<1%<1%
West Ham31 pts
67.0
1.8
0.9
13.67.716.7-1048<1%<1%<1%
Bournemouth30 pts
65.0
1.9
1.1
13.56.617.9-1647<1%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace22 pts
71.3
1.8
0.7
11.68.018.3-9434%<1%<1%
Brighton26 pts
63.0
1.6
0.9
11.39.017.8-13434%<1%<1%
Southampton22 pts
67.0
1.8
0.9
10.110.917.0-17418%<1%<1%
Newcastle21 pts
64.5
1.6
0.8
9.010.019.0-193722%<1%<1%
Burnley22 pts
61.5
1.7
1.0
9.77.620.7-303726%<1%<1%
Cardiff City19 pts
56.7
1.5
1.1
8.07.622.3-383265%<1%<1%
Fulham14 pts
58.7
1.6
1.1
6.89.022.2-402977%<1%<1%
Huddersfield11 pts
59.5
1.4
0.9
5.29.123.7-372593%<1%—
Forecast from
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