Updated March 23, 2019, at 9:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated March 17, 2019, at 2:25 p.m.

Upcoming matches
3/30
Fulham
4%
10%
Man. City
87%
3/30
Man. United
66%
20%
Watford
14%
3/30
Burnley
42%
28%
Wolverhampton
30%
3/30
Crystal Palace
65%
24%
Huddersfield
12%
3/30
Leicester City
44%
26%
Bournemouth
30%
3/30
Brighton
40%
29%
Southampton
32%
3/30
West Ham
38%
27%
Everton
35%
3/31
Cardiff City
15%
22%
Chelsea
63%
3/31
Liverpool
65%
21%
Tottenham
13%
4/1
Arsenal
72%
19%
Newcastle
10%
4/2
Wolverhampton
32%
27%
Man. United
42%
4/2
Watford
58%
23%
Fulham
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/17
Everton2
17%24%
Chelsea0
59%
EVECHE
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.51.4
Non-shot xG0.92.3
3/17
Fulham1
5%13%
Liverpool2
82%
FULLIV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.93.0
Non-shot xG0.62.6
3/16
Bournemouth2
45%27%
Newcastle2
28%
BOUNEW
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG0.71.1
3/16
Burnley1
39%27%
Leicester City2
34%
BRNLEI
Adjusted goals0.82.1
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG2.20.9
3/16
West Ham4
46%29%
Huddersfield3
24%
WHUHUD
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.01.6
Non-shot xG2.60.6
3/10
Arsenal2
46%24%
Man. United0
30%
ARSMAN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.72.9
Non-shot xG1.31.8
3/10
Chelsea1
71%20%
Wolverhampton1
9%
CHEWOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG2.30.3
3/10
Liverpool4
89%9%
Burnley2
2%
LIVBRN
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG3.60.6
Non-shot xG2.70.7
3/9
Man. City3
90%8%
Watford1
2%
MNCWAT
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.40.4
Non-shot xG2.90.3
3/9
Huddersfield0
32%29%
Bournemouth2
39%
HUDBOU
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.42.0
Non-shot xG1.11.4
3/9
Cardiff City2
36%28%
West Ham0
36%
CARWHU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG3.30.3
Non-shot xG1.40.8
3/9
Leicester City3
59%24%
Fulham1
18%
LEIFUL
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG2.10.2
Non-shot xG1.70.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City74 pts
94.7
3.2
0.2
30.13.24.7+7494>99%66%
Liverpool76 pts
93.0
2.8
0.2
28.08.31.7+6392>99%34%
Tottenham61 pts
82.6
2.3
0.6
24.22.611.1+307570%<1%
Arsenal60 pts
81.3
2.4
0.7
22.37.97.9+307563%<1%
Chelsea57 pts
85.3
2.4
0.5
21.67.78.7+247235%<1%
Man. United58 pts
80.7
2.4
0.7
21.18.88.1+237232%<1%
Wolverhampton44 pts
70.7
1.8
0.7
14.710.013.3+054<1%<1%
Watford43 pts
69.3
2.0
0.9
15.09.014.1-254<1%<1%
Leicester City41 pts
72.1
1.9
0.8
14.46.716.9-550<1%<1%
West Ham42 pts
64.0
1.9
1.1
13.87.616.6-1049<1%<1%
Everton40 pts
70.4
1.9
0.8
13.38.815.8+049<1%<1%
Bournemouth38 pts
66.0
1.9
1.0
13.56.817.7-1447<1%
Crystal Palace33 pts
71.7
1.9
0.8
11.78.018.3-743<1%
Newcastle35 pts
66.9
1.8
0.8
11.09.817.2-1243<1%
Brighton33 pts
62.6
1.7
0.9
11.28.118.7-17423%<1%
Southampton30 pts
66.2
1.8
0.9
9.711.117.1-17405%
Burnley30 pts
64.5
1.8
1.0
9.97.620.5-283720%
Cardiff City28 pts
57.6
1.6
1.1
9.45.722.9-393471%
Fulham17 pts
56.7
1.7
1.2
5.76.625.7-4624>99%
Huddersfield14 pts
53.5
1.4
1.0
4.06.527.4-4819>99%
Forecast from
Season

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