Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2019-20 season

England

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 1:22 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 13-19
8/19
Wolves
32%
26%
Man. United
42%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Chelsea1
62%22%
Leicester1
16%
CHELEI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
8/18
Sheffield Utd1
37%27%
Crystal Palace0
36%
SHEFCRY
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.3
Non-shot xG0.91.2
8/17
Man. City2
69%19%
Tottenham2
12%
MNCTOT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG3.50.2
Non-shot xG2.70.4
8/17
Norwich3
39%28%
Newcastle1
33%
NORNEW
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.40.6
Non-shot xG1.40.8
8/17
Brighton1
40%27%
West Ham1
34%
BHAWHU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG1.70.9
8/17
Southampton1
14%19%
Liverpool2
67%
SOULIV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.8
Non-shot xG1.11.1
8/17
Everton1
59%23%
Watford0
18%
EVEWAT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.01.7
8/17
Aston Villa1
40%26%
Bournemouth2
35%
AVLBOU
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.11.6
Non-shot xG2.51.1
8/17
Arsenal2
64%21%
Burnley1
16%
ARSBRN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.81.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City4 pts
94.5
3.1
0.2
+7090<1%98%61%
Liverpool6 pts
91.9
2.8
0.3
+5183<1%89%28%
Tottenham4 pts
84.9
2.4
0.5
+2669<1%52%4%
Man. United3 pts
81.3
2.3
0.6
+19641%36%2%
Chelsea1 pt
84.1
2.4
0.5
+1764<1%36%2%
Arsenal6 pts
79.8
2.3
0.7
+12631%32%2%
Everton4 pts
78.6
2.0
0.5
+4564%16%<1%
Leicester2 pts
76.1
2.0
0.6
+0527%10%<1%
Wolves1 pt
74.4
1.9
0.6
-54910%7%<1%
Bournemouth4 pts
68.7
2.0
1.0
-134614%4%<1%
Burnley3 pts
69.0
1.9
0.8
-114517%4%<1%
Crystal Palace1 pt
70.2
1.9
0.8
-134419%3%<1%
West Ham1 pt
68.3
1.9
0.9
-184421%3%<1%
Southampton0 pts
68.9
1.9
0.9
-164323%2%<1%
Brighton4 pts
65.2
1.7
0.9
-184127%2%<1%
Newcastle0 pts
68.7
1.8
0.8
-184127%2%<1%
Watford0 pts
67.2
1.9
0.9
-204028%2%<1%
Norwich3 pts
64.3
1.7
0.9
-224029%1%<1%
Sheffield Utd4 pts
63.8
1.6
0.9
-223930%1%<1%
Aston Villa0 pts
64.2
1.7
0.9
-243739%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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