Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 1:06 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Premier League

2017-18 season

England

Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 12:55 PM

Upcoming matches
1/22
Swansea City
11%
18%
Liverpool
71%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
1/21
Southampton1
18%22%
Tottenham1
60%
SOUTOT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG0.62.5
1/20
Man. City3
90%8%
Newcastle1
2%
MNCNEW
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG2.81.1
Non-shot xG4.10.4
1/20
Leicester City2
53%24%
Watford0
23%
LEIWAT
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.51.0
Non-shot xG1.21.0
1/20
Stoke City2
50%27%
Huddersfield0
23%
STKHUD
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.10.5
1/20
Burnley0
24%28%
Man. United1
48%
BRNMAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG1.91.3
1/20
Arsenal4
66%20%
Crystal Palace1
14%
ARSCRY
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG3.00.8
Non-shot xG4.01.4
1/20
West Ham1
46%25%
Bournemouth1
29%
WHUBOU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.20.7
1/20
Everton1
45%30%
West Brom1
25%
EVEWBA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.71.0
1/20
Brighton0
12%22%
Chelsea4
66%
BHACHE
Adjusted goals0.03.6
Shot-based xG0.91.3
Non-shot xG1.81.5
1/15
Man. United3
79%14%
Stoke City0
7%
MANSTK
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG2.01.3
1/14
Liverpool4
36%24%
Man. City3
40%
LIVMNC
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.31.4
1/14
Bournemouth2
17%19%
Arsenal1
63%
BOUARS
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.1
Non-shot xG1.51.3
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City65 pts
90.1
3.1
0.5
30.94.32.7+7597>99%98%
Liverpool47 pts
86.8
3.0
0.7
23.310.54.2+4980<1%88%<1%
Chelsea50 pts
85.0
2.6
0.5
23.67.96.5+4479<1%80%<1%
Man. United53 pts
79.7
2.3
0.7
23.38.16.6+4278<1%75%<1%
Tottenham45 pts
84.6
2.6
0.6
21.28.97.9+3973<1%36%<1%
Arsenal42 pts
82.7
2.8
0.8
20.78.68.7+3071<1%21%<1%
Leicester City34 pts
66.0
1.8
0.9
14.510.512.9+554<1%<1%<1%
Burnley34 pts
60.3
1.4
0.8
13.611.113.3-452<1%<1%<1%
Everton28 pts
56.5
1.6
1.1
11.210.616.2-18443%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace25 pts
63.1
1.7
1.0
11.010.616.4-16444%<1%<1%
Watford26 pts
57.4
1.7
1.2
11.18.218.7-19426%<1%<1%
West Ham26 pts
58.2
1.7
1.2
10.111.216.7-19426%<1%<1%
Bournemouth25 pts
57.2
1.7
1.1
10.210.417.4-17418%<1%<1%
Southampton22 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
8.213.616.3-163820%<1%
Stoke City23 pts
53.4
1.6
1.3
9.68.320.2-353728%<1%<1%
Newcastle23 pts
53.0
1.4
1.1
9.38.420.3-223629%<1%<1%
Brighton23 pts
49.5
1.3
1.1
7.911.518.6-283538%<1%<1%
Huddersfield24 pts
45.8
1.2
1.2
8.59.220.3-373545%<1%<1%
West Brom20 pts
56.0
1.4
0.9
6.514.716.8-203443%<1%
Swansea City17 pts
50.0
1.3
1.1
7.38.921.7-323169%<1%
Forecast from
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