Updated Jan. 18, 2019, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Jan. 14, 2019, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
1/19
Wolverhampton
40%
31%
Leicester City
29%
1/19
Liverpool
87%
11%
Crystal Palace
2%
1/19
Man. United
69%
20%
Brighton
11%
1/19
Newcastle
48%
29%
Cardiff City
23%
1/19
Southampton
42%
27%
Everton
31%
1/19
Watford
53%
25%
Burnley
22%
1/19
Bournemouth
44%
26%
West Ham
31%
1/19
Arsenal
36%
27%
Chelsea
37%
1/20
Huddersfield
7%
16%
Man. City
77%
1/20
Fulham
17%
22%
Tottenham
61%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
1/14
Man. City3
85%12%
Wolverhampton0
3%
MNCWOL
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.70.1
Non-shot xG4.20.2
1/13
Tottenham0
52%24%
Man. United1
25%
TOTMAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.10.9
Non-shot xG3.00.6
1/13
Everton2
51%25%
Bournemouth0
25%
EVEBOU
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.71.8
Non-shot xG1.91.8
1/12
Chelsea2
78%17%
Newcastle1
5%
CHENEW
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.31.0
1/12
Brighton0
7%16%
Liverpool1
76%
BHALIV
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.42.5
Non-shot xG0.62.4
1/12
Cardiff City0
49%30%
Huddersfield0
22%
CARHUD
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.20.5
Non-shot xG0.71.6
1/12
Leicester City1
45%29%
Southampton2
26%
LEISOU
Adjusted goals0.82.1
Shot-based xG1.61.3
Non-shot xG2.30.9
1/12
Crystal Palace1
44%28%
Watford2
28%
CRYWAT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.8
Non-shot xG1.81.1
1/12
Burnley2
47%27%
Fulham1
26%
BRNFUL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG1.00.9
1/12
West Ham1
26%24%
Arsenal0
51%
WHUARS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG1.51.1
1/3
Man. City2
44%24%
Liverpool1
32%
MNCLIV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.11.6
1/2
Newcastle0
27%26%
Man. United2
47%
NEWMAN
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.62.3
Non-shot xG1.01.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Liverpool57 pts
93.3
2.9
0.2
29.95.62.5+6895>99%75%
Man. City53 pts
92.8
3.1
0.3
28.54.74.8+6890>99%24%
Tottenham48 pts
85.3
2.5
0.5
25.03.49.6+3778<1%86%<1%
Chelsea47 pts
85.5
2.3
0.4
22.48.86.9+3476<1%74%<1%
Man. United41 pts
79.7
2.3
0.7
19.78.89.5+2068<1%20%<1%
Arsenal41 pts
79.0
2.3
0.7
19.68.89.6+2168<1%20%<1%
Watford32 pts
70.7
2.0
0.9
14.68.814.6-353<1%<1%<1%
Leicester City31 pts
70.8
1.8
0.7
14.38.215.5-351<1%<1%<1%
Everton30 pts
70.9
1.9
0.8
13.210.214.6-150<1%<1%<1%
Wolverhampton29 pts
68.6
1.7
0.7
13.49.415.2-750<1%<1%<1%
West Ham31 pts
66.9
1.9
0.9
13.87.916.3-949<1%<1%<1%
Bournemouth27 pts
64.8
1.9
1.1
13.06.918.1-17462%<1%<1%
Brighton26 pts
62.9
1.6
0.9
11.39.217.4-14433%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace22 pts
70.3
1.8
0.7
11.38.318.4-11425%<1%<1%
Southampton19 pts
66.9
1.8
0.9
9.611.217.2-184012%<1%<1%
Burnley21 pts
60.2
1.7
1.1
9.86.821.4-323628%<1%<1%
Newcastle18 pts
63.1
1.6
0.9
8.410.319.3-223532%<1%<1%
Cardiff City19 pts
58.1
1.5
1.0
8.48.021.5-353349%<1%<1%
Fulham14 pts
58.7
1.6
1.1
6.89.022.2-402976%<1%<1%
Huddersfield11 pts
59.5
1.4
0.9
5.29.223.6-372592%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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