Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 9:27 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Premier League

2018-19 season

England

Updated Oct. 21, 2018, at 12:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/22
Arsenal
63%
21%
Leicester City
16%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/21
Everton2
43%28%
Crystal Palace0
28%
EVECRY
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.80.8
10/20
Huddersfield0
11%21%
Liverpool1
69%
HUDLIV
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.90.8
Non-shot xG1.12.0
10/20
Bournemouth0
47%26%
Southampton0
27%
BOUSOU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.00.9
10/20
Cardiff City4
42%28%
Fulham2
30%
CARFUL
Adjusted goals3.82.1
Shot-based xG1.91.0
Non-shot xG2.01.3
10/20
Wolverhampton0
44%29%
Watford2
27%
WOLWAT
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.51.1
Non-shot xG1.70.8
10/20
West Ham0
21%24%
Tottenham1
55%
WHUTOT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG2.00.8
10/20
Man. City5
91%8%
Burnley0
1%
MNCBRN
Adjusted goals4.40.0
Shot-based xG5.30.3
Non-shot xG3.00.6
10/20
Newcastle0
48%28%
Brighton1
24%
NEWBHA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.90.6
Non-shot xG2.20.9
10/20
Chelsea2
56%23%
Man. United2
20%
CHEMAN
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.40.9
Non-shot xG1.81.2
10/7
Liverpool0
38%26%
Man. City0
37%
LIVMNC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG0.80.6
10/7
Southampton0
20%24%
Chelsea3
56%
SOUCHE
Adjusted goals0.02.6
Shot-based xG1.73.5
Non-shot xG0.62.5
10/7
Fulham1
21%22%
Arsenal5
57%
FULARS
Adjusted goals1.14.5
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.01.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Man. City23 pts
94.1
3.0
0.2
27.97.03.1+7291<1%98%58%
Liverpool23 pts
90.3
2.6
0.3
25.97.84.2+5186<1%93%27%
Chelsea21 pts
86.5
2.5
0.5
22.79.36.0+4077<1%74%8%
Tottenham21 pts
84.1
2.4
0.5
22.46.79.0+2974<1%59%4%
Arsenal18 pts
81.2
2.5
0.7
21.56.69.9+2971<1%49%3%
Man. United14 pts
79.5
2.3
0.7
17.68.811.5+1162<1%16%<1%
Leicester City12 pts
71.5
1.9
0.8
14.77.715.6-1523%3%<1%
Bournemouth17 pts
67.2
2.0
1.0
14.19.014.9-6513%3%<1%
Watford16 pts
68.4
1.8
0.8
14.28.515.3-7513%2%<1%
Everton15 pts
68.7
1.8
0.8
12.910.514.6-7494%2%<1%
Wolverhampton15 pts
67.1
1.7
0.8
12.710.914.5-9494%1%<1%
Brighton11 pts
62.6
1.7
1.0
11.29.617.2-154313%<1%<1%
West Ham7 pts
66.5
1.8
0.9
11.48.617.9-134314%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace7 pts
67.1
1.8
0.8
10.78.518.8-174119%<1%<1%
Southampton6 pts
65.4
1.7
0.9
9.510.617.9-193924%<1%<1%
Newcastle2 pts
65.7
1.7
0.8
8.89.919.3-173634%<1%<1%
Burnley8 pts
58.7
1.6
1.1
8.89.120.1-283637%<1%<1%
Fulham5 pts
59.1
1.8
1.2
8.59.020.5-323443%<1%<1%
Cardiff City5 pts
59.7
1.6
1.0
8.19.520.5-293445%<1%<1%
Huddersfield3 pts
60.0
1.5
0.9
7.011.120.0-303253%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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