Updated 10:10 PM EDT | May 27, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Serie A
Upcoming
5/28
Cagliari
27%
26%
AC Milan
47%
5/28
Roma
88%
9%
Genoa
2%
5/28
Sampdoria
15%
21%
Napoli
64%
5/28
Inter Milan
70%
20%
Udinese
10%
5/28
Palermo
37%
30%
Empoli
33%
5/28
Fiorentina
73%
18%
Pescara
9%
5/28
Torino
48%
25%
Sassuolo
27%
5/28
Crotone
21%
26%
Lazio
53%
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/27
Bologna1
12%23%
Juventus2
65%
BOLJUV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.42.5
Non-shot xG0.42.4
5/27
Atalanta1
73%19%
Chievo0
8%
ATACVO
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG2.20.7
5/22
Pescara2
47%28%
Palermo0
25%
PESPAL
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG2.00.9
5/21
Lazio1
49%24%
Inter Milan3
27%
LAZINT
Adjusted goals1.13.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.01.5
5/21
Sassuolo6
51%26%
Cagliari2
24%
SASCAG
Adjusted goals5.82.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.41.9
5/21
Genoa2
30%27%
Torino1
43%
GENTOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG1.01.0
5/21
Juventus3
84%13%
Crotone0
3%
JUVCRO
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.70.4
Non-shot xG2.31.0
5/21
Empoli0
22%26%
Atalanta1
52%
EMPATA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.2
Non-shot xG0.71.8
5/21
AC Milan3
61%25%
Bologna0
14%
MILBOL
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.60.3
Non-shot xG2.40.6
5/21
Udinese1
43%29%
Sampdoria1
28%
UDISMP
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.0
Non-shot xG0.81.2
5/20
Napoli4
73%18%
Fiorentina1
9%
NAPFIO
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG4.20.6
Non-shot xG1.80.5
5/20
Chievo3
13%20%
Roma5
67%
CVOROM
Adjusted goals3.24.8
Shot-based xG1.62.0
Non-shot xG1.62.1
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus91 pts
2.3
0.5
29.04.05.0+5091
Roma84 pts
2.6
0.9
27.93.17.0+5487
Napoli83 pts
2.6
0.8
25.68.24.1+5485
Atalanta72 pts
1.9
0.9
21.09.08.0+2172
Lazio70 pts
2.2
1.1
21.57.39.2+2672
AC Milan63 pts
1.8
1.0
18.59.310.3+1365
Fiorentina59 pts
1.9
1.1
16.711.210.1+861
Inter Milan59 pts
2.2
1.0
18.75.214.1+2161
Torino50 pts
1.8
1.3
12.514.211.3+352
Sampdoria48 pts
1.6
1.2
12.112.213.6-549
Sassuolo46 pts
1.7
1.3
13.37.217.5-347
Udinese45 pts
1.4
1.1
12.19.216.7-746
Cagliari44 pts
1.5
1.5
13.35.319.5-2245
Chievo43 pts
1.4
1.3
12.07.019.0-1843
Bologna41 pts
1.3
1.2
11.08.019.0-1841
Genoa36 pts
1.3
1.3
9.09.119.9-2836
Empoli32 pts
1.3
1.4
8.38.321.4-313324%
Crotone31 pts
1.1
1.2
8.27.322.5-273276%
Palermo23 pts
1.1
1.5
5.48.324.3-4524
Pescara17 pts
1.3
1.6
3.18.226.7-4617
Forecast from

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