Updated Jan. 16, 2021, at 10:04 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2020-21

Italy

Updated Jan. 15, 2021, at 4:49 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 12-18
1/16
Bologna
43%
28%
Verona
29%
1/16
Torino
46%
26%
Spezia
27%
1/16
Sampdoria
36%
27%
Udinese
37%
1/17
Napoli
63%
23%
Fiorentina
14%
1/17
Sassuolo
51%
25%
Parma
24%
1/17
Crotone
39%
28%
Benevento
33%
1/17
Atalanta
81%
14%
Genoa
5%
1/17
Inter Milan
40%
24%
Juventus
37%
1/18
Cagliari
17%
20%
AC Milan
62%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 12-18
1/15
Lazio3
32%24%
Roma0
44%
LAZROM
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Inter Milan37 pts
82.2
2.5
0.7
+4078<1%77%25%
Juventus33 pts
84.0
2.6
0.6
+4277<1%74%23%
AC Milan40 pts
77.3
2.3
0.8
+3077<1%72%20%
Atalanta31 pts
83.9
2.5
0.6
+4376<1%71%19%
Napoli31 pts
80.5
2.2
0.6
+3572<1%50%8%
Roma35 pts
77.2
2.2
0.8
+2370<1%40%4%
Lazio31 pts
73.0
2.1
0.8
+1263<1%12%<1%
Sassuolo29 pts
62.9
1.9
1.1
+156<1%3%<1%
Verona25 pts
60.9
1.6
0.9
-4491%<1%<1%
Fiorentina18 pts
67.4
1.7
0.8
-6464%<1%<1%
Sampdoria20 pts
59.7
1.7
1.1
-8456%<1%<1%
Udinese16 pts
65.7
1.7
0.9
-10447%<1%<1%
Benevento21 pts
56.0
1.6
1.1
-21447%<1%<1%
Bologna17 pts
59.7
1.7
1.1
-164112%<1%<1%
Spezia17 pts
55.0
1.6
1.2
-223823%<1%<1%
Torino12 pts
58.9
1.7
1.1
-163730%<1%<1%
Genoa14 pts
54.7
1.5
1.1
-263541%<1%<1%
Cagliari14 pts
52.0
1.6
1.4
-263541%<1%<1%
Parma12 pts
52.2
1.5
1.2
-343256%<1%<1%
Crotone9 pts
51.7
1.4
1.2
-382971%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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