Updated Jan. 23, 2018 at 4:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Serie A

2017-18 season

Italy

Updated Jan. 22, 2018 at 4:43 PM

Upcoming matches
1/24
Lazio
58%
23%
Udinese
19%
1/24
Sampdoria
29%
25%
Roma
46%
1/27
Sassuolo
29%
28%
Atalanta
43%
1/27
Chievo
11%
20%
Juventus
69%
1/28
SPAL
20%
24%
Inter Milan
56%
1/28
Fiorentina
77%
17%
Verona
6%
1/28
Torino
67%
21%
Benevento
11%
1/28
Napoli
81%
15%
Bologna
4%
1/28
Genoa
37%
32%
Udinese
31%
1/28
Crotone
36%
30%
Cagliari
34%
1/28
AC Milan
35%
26%
Lazio
39%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
1/22
Juventus1
81%16%
Genoa0
3%
JUVGEN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.1
Non-shot xG1.70.5
1/21
Inter Milan1
42%27%
Roma1
31%
INTROM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.5
Non-shot xG1.70.7
1/21
Cagliari1
33%28%
AC Milan2
39%
CAGMIL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.82.0
Non-shot xG1.61.4
1/21
Verona0
44%30%
Crotone3
26%
HELCRO
Adjusted goals0.02.9
Shot-based xG1.10.8
Non-shot xG0.80.8
1/21
Sassuolo1
38%28%
Torino1
34%
SASTOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.9
Non-shot xG1.80.6
1/21
Bologna3
56%27%
Benevento0
17%
BOLBEN
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.90.7
Non-shot xG1.20.7
1/21
Sampdoria3
36%26%
Fiorentina1
38%
SMPFIO
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.11.9
Non-shot xG1.41.1
1/21
Lazio5
75%16%
Chievo1
8%
LAZCVO
Adjusted goals4.51.1
Shot-based xG1.20.5
Non-shot xG2.10.5
1/21
Udinese1
61%23%
SPAL1
15%
UDISPAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.2
Non-shot xG0.80.5
1/21
Atalanta0
31%28%
Napoli1
42%
ATANAP
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.4
Non-shot xG1.11.4
1/6
Cagliari0
12%20%
Juventus1
67%
CAGJUV
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.5
Non-shot xG1.31.8
1/6
Roma1
53%25%
Atalanta2
22%
ROMATA
Adjusted goals0.82.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.50.5
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus53 pts
86.4
2.5
0.4
28.05.64.4+5690<1%>99%50%
Napoli54 pts
84.5
2.4
0.5
27.76.63.6+5290<1%>99%48%
Lazio43 pts
76.6
2.4
0.9
22.38.07.7+4075<1%67%1%
Inter Milan43 pts
76.7
2.2
0.7
21.111.06.0+3374<1%66%<1%
Roma40 pts
78.0
2.2
0.7
21.78.38.0+3073<1%60%<1%
Atalanta30 pts
73.1
2.0
0.8
16.310.311.4+1359<1%3%<1%
Sampdoria33 pts
64.8
2.0
1.1
16.67.314.1+857<1%2%<1%
AC Milan31 pts
66.8
1.8
0.9
15.68.414.0+155<1%<1%<1%
Fiorentina28 pts
69.8
1.9
0.8
14.611.312.0+1255<1%<1%<1%
Udinese29 pts
64.7
1.8
0.9
15.26.716.1+452<1%<1%<1%
Torino29 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
12.215.310.5+052<1%<1%<1%
Bologna27 pts
55.5
1.5
1.1
12.67.418.0-12451%<1%<1%
Sassuolo22 pts
58.3
1.6
1.0
11.38.518.2-21424%<1%<1%
Genoa21 pts
57.6
1.3
0.8
10.410.916.7-10424%<1%<1%
Chievo22 pts
50.8
1.4
1.2
9.511.217.3-26409%<1%<1%
Cagliari20 pts
54.0
1.5
1.2
10.86.520.7-213912%<1%<1%
SPAL16 pts
51.2
1.5
1.2
7.411.319.3-263439%<1%<1%
Crotone18 pts
46.3
1.2
1.2
8.47.322.3-363345%<1%<1%
Verona13 pts
42.0
1.2
1.4
6.07.824.2-442687%<1%<1%
Benevento7 pts
41.2
1.2
1.4
4.84.828.4-521998%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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