Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:03 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2018-19 season

Italy

Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/15
Inter Milan
77%
17%
Udinese
6%
12/15
Torino
16%
23%
Juventus
61%
12/16
SPAL
50%
27%
Chievo
23%
12/16
Sampdoria
53%
25%
Parma
22%
12/16
Fiorentina
58%
23%
Empoli
19%
12/16
Frosinone
32%
27%
Sassuolo
40%
12/16
Cagliari
18%
23%
Napoli
59%
12/16
Roma
68%
19%
Genoa
13%
12/17
Atalanta
45%
25%
Lazio
30%
12/18
Bologna
25%
26%
AC Milan
49%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/9
AC Milan0
55%26%
Torino0
19%
MILTOR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.41.3
Non-shot xG1.61.1
12/9
Genoa1
48%27%
SPAL1
26%
GENSPAL
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.02.6
Non-shot xG0.63.0
12/9
Empoli2
48%26%
Bologna1
26%
EMPBOL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.62.2
Non-shot xG1.62.9
12/9
Udinese1
25%25%
Atalanta3
50%
UDIATA
Adjusted goals1.12.9
Shot-based xG0.82.4
Non-shot xG0.51.9
12/9
Parma1
46%27%
Chievo1
26%
PARCVO
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.5
Non-shot xG1.51.1
12/9
Sassuolo3
35%29%
Fiorentina3
36%
SASFIO
Adjusted goals2.92.9
Shot-based xG1.22.5
Non-shot xG1.31.4
12/8
Lazio2
64%21%
Sampdoria2
15%
LAZSMP
Adjusted goals1.92.1
Shot-based xG3.70.7
Non-shot xG3.00.7
12/8
Cagliari2
22%23%
Roma2
55%
CAGROM
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.11.8
Non-shot xG2.01.6
12/8
Napoli4
85%12%
Frosinone0
3%
NAPFRO
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG2.00.4
Non-shot xG2.60.6
12/7
Juventus1
60%23%
Inter Milan0
17%
JUVINT
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.51.1
Non-shot xG2.00.8
12/3
Atalanta1
35%26%
Napoli2
39%
ATANAP
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.61.5
12/2
Roma2
42%25%
Inter Milan2
33%
ROMINT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.72.7
Non-shot xG0.91.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus43 pts
90.5
2.6
0.3
29.65.43.0+5794<1%>99%86%
Napoli35 pts
84.7
2.4
0.5
24.87.06.2+4281<1%95%11%
Inter Milan29 pts
82.3
2.3
0.6
22.27.18.7+3574<1%80%2%
Lazio25 pts
76.5
2.2
0.7
18.29.410.4+1664<1%34%<1%
AC Milan26 pts
74.1
2.0
0.7
17.510.89.7+1463<1%31%<1%
Roma21 pts
76.6
2.3
0.8
16.511.110.4+1961<1%22%<1%
Atalanta21 pts
77.5
2.3
0.8
17.48.212.4+2160<1%21%<1%
Fiorentina19 pts
72.1
1.9
0.7
13.912.911.2+1155<1%7%<1%
Torino22 pts
68.7
1.8
0.8
13.512.911.5+353<1%5%<1%
Sassuolo21 pts
63.7
1.7
1.0
12.511.813.7-3492%2%<1%
Sampdoria20 pts
62.4
1.8
1.0
12.710.514.8-2492%2%<1%
Cagliari17 pts
60.7
1.7
1.0
9.913.814.3-12449%<1%<1%
Parma21 pts
54.3
1.5
1.1
11.68.717.7-18438%<1%<1%
Empoli16 pts
58.3
1.7
1.2
10.69.318.1-194114%<1%<1%
Genoa16 pts
57.4
1.7
1.1
10.29.618.2-224017%<1%<1%
SPAL15 pts
58.0
1.6
1.0
10.48.818.8-214018%<1%<1%
Udinese13 pts
58.2
1.5
1.0
9.49.818.8-193824%<1%<1%
Bologna11 pts
55.0
1.5
1.1
7.710.419.8-263447%<1%<1%
Frosinone8 pts
49.0
1.4
1.3
6.010.521.5-402972%<1%<1%
Chievo3 pts
52.0
1.5
1.2
5.411.521.1-372585%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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