Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Serie A
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/28
Crotone3
21%26%
Lazio1
53%
CROLAZ
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG0.90.8
5/28
Torino5
48%25%
Sassuolo3
27%
TORSAS
Adjusted goals5.03.2
Shot-based xG2.23.4
Non-shot xG1.42.2
5/28
Fiorentina2
73%18%
Pescara2
9%
FIOPES
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.31.7
Non-shot xG1.72.9
5/28
Palermo2
37%30%
Empoli1
33%
PALEMP
Adjusted goals1.81.1
Shot-based xG0.92.2
Non-shot xG0.61.8
5/28
Inter Milan5
70%20%
Udinese2
10%
INTUDI
Adjusted goals5.12.1
Shot-based xG3.12.8
Non-shot xG1.81.7
5/28
Sampdoria2
15%21%
Napoli4
64%
SMPNAP
Adjusted goals2.14.2
Shot-based xG1.11.6
Non-shot xG1.42.7
5/28
Roma3
88%9%
Genoa2
2%
ROMGEN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.91.5
Non-shot xG3.40.7
5/28
Cagliari2
27%26%
AC Milan1
47%
CAGMIL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.02.2
Non-shot xG1.32.1
5/27
Bologna1
12%23%
Juventus2
65%
BOLJUV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.42.5
Non-shot xG0.42.4
5/27
Atalanta1
73%19%
Chievo0
8%
ATACVO
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG2.20.7
5/22
Pescara2
47%28%
Palermo0
25%
PESPAL
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG2.00.9
5/21
Lazio1
49%24%
Inter Milan3
27%
LAZINT
Adjusted goals1.13.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.01.5
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus91 pts
2.2
0.6
29.04.05.0+5091
Roma87 pts
2.6
1.0
28.03.07.0+5287
Napoli86 pts
2.6
0.8
26.08.04.0+5586
Atalanta72 pts
1.9
0.9
21.09.08.0+2172
Lazio70 pts
2.1
1.1
21.07.010.0+2370
AC Milan63 pts
1.8
1.0
18.09.011.0+1263
Inter Milan62 pts
2.3
1.1
19.05.014.0+2362
Fiorentina60 pts
1.9
1.2
16.012.010.0+660
Torino53 pts
1.9
1.4
13.014.011.0+553
Sampdoria48 pts
1.6
1.2
12.012.014.0-648
Cagliari47 pts
1.6
1.5
14.05.019.0-2147
Sassuolo46 pts
1.8
1.4
13.07.018.0-546
Udinese45 pts
1.5
1.2
12.09.017.0-945
Chievo43 pts
1.4
1.3
12.07.019.0-1843
Bologna41 pts
1.3
1.2
11.08.019.0-1841
Genoa36 pts
1.3
1.3
9.09.020.0-2636
Crotone34 pts
1.2
1.1
9.07.022.0-2434
Empoli32 pts
1.3
1.4
8.08.022.0-3232
Palermo26 pts
1.1
1.5
6.08.024.0-4426
Pescara18 pts
1.4
1.6
3.09.026.0-4418
Forecast from

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