Updated April 24, 2019, at 4:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2018-19 season

Italy

Updated April 22, 2019, at 2:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/27
Bologna
48%
25%
Empoli
26%
4/27
Roma
66%
20%
Cagliari
14%
4/27
Inter Milan
45%
27%
Juventus
29%
4/28
Frosinone
18%
24%
Napoli
58%
4/28
Chievo
44%
28%
Parma
29%
4/28
SPAL
40%
28%
Genoa
31%
4/28
Sampdoria
36%
26%
Lazio
38%
4/28
Torino
29%
30%
AC Milan
41%
4/29
Atalanta
81%
14%
Udinese
5%
4/29
Fiorentina
44%
27%
Sassuolo
29%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/22
Napoli1
35%26%
Atalanta2
39%
NAPATA
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.4
Non-shot xG1.31.6
4/20
Inter Milan1
49%25%
Roma1
27%
INTROM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.00.5
Non-shot xG1.71.1
4/20
Juventus2
50%26%
Fiorentina1
24%
JUVFIO
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG2.21.2
4/20
Bologna3
40%26%
Sampdoria0
33%
BOLSMP
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG0.70.9
4/20
Genoa0
37%29%
Torino1
34%
GENTOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG1.90.8
4/20
Cagliari1
51%26%
Frosinone0
23%
CAGFRO
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG1.11.5
4/20
Empoli2
49%26%
SPAL4
25%
EMPSPAL
Adjusted goals2.13.7
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.50.7
4/20
Lazio1
76%17%
Chievo2
7%
LAZCVO
Adjusted goals1.11.7
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG2.40.9
4/20
Udinese1
43%27%
Sassuolo1
30%
UDISAS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG1.80.6
4/20
Parma1
15%23%
AC Milan1
61%
PARMIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.8
Non-shot xG1.31.0
4/17
Lazio2
66%22%
Udinese0
12%
LAZUDI
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG2.21.1
4/15
Atalanta0
70%18%
Empoli0
12%
ATAEMP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG5.90.2
Non-shot xG5.10.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus87 pts
82.8
2.3
0.5
30.24.33.5+4695—✓✓
Napoli67 pts
80.0
2.2
0.6
22.78.27.1+3676—>99%—
Inter Milan61 pts
81.4
2.2
0.5
20.88.19.0+2971—95%—
Atalanta56 pts
81.5
2.4
0.6
18.99.010.1+2966—46%—
AC Milan56 pts
74.1
1.9
0.6
17.412.48.3+1864—34%—
Roma55 pts
73.5
2.2
0.9
17.611.19.3+1564—20%—
Lazio52 pts
75.3
2.0
0.7
17.18.312.6+1360—3%—
Torino53 pts
68.7
1.7
0.7
14.715.48.0+1259—2%—
Sampdoria48 pts
68.8
1.9
0.9
16.27.314.6+1056—<1%—
Fiorentina40 pts
69.1
1.9
0.8
10.217.310.4+848<1%——
Cagliari40 pts
60.1
1.7
1.1
11.311.215.5-1545<1%——
SPAL38 pts
59.3
1.6
1.0
11.69.417.1-1444<1%——
Sassuolo38 pts
61.9
1.7
1.0
9.515.213.3-744<1%——
Parma36 pts
51.2
1.5
1.2
10.110.217.7-21411%——
Bologna34 pts
64.7
1.7
0.9
9.711.317.0-14405%——
Genoa34 pts
61.4
1.6
1.0
9.411.217.3-19394%——
Udinese33 pts
57.6
1.6
1.1
9.310.218.5-193812%——
Empoli29 pts
56.0
1.7
1.3
8.29.220.6-243479%——
Frosinone23 pts
53.3
1.4
1.1
6.39.322.4-3628>99%——
Chievo14 pts
51.8
1.5
1.2
3.412.322.4-4619✓——
Forecast from
Season

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