Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:55 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Serie A

2020-21

Italy

Updated Nov. 4, 2020, at 2:48 p.m.

Upcoming matches
November 3-9
11/6
Sassuolo
48%
25%
Udinese
27%
11/7
Cagliari
37%
26%
Sampdoria
37%
11/7
Benevento
46%
26%
Spezia
28%
11/7
Parma
34%
25%
Fiorentina
41%
11/8
Lazio
27%
24%
Juventus
49%
11/8
Atalanta
33%
23%
Inter Milan
44%
11/8
Torino
48%
26%
Crotone
26%
11/8
Genoa
19%
23%
Roma
58%
11/8
Bologna
18%
23%
Napoli
60%
11/8
AC Milan
70%
19%
Verona
10%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
November 3-9
11/4
Genoa1
38%27%
Torino2
36%
GENTOR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.40.4
Non-shot xG1.90.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Inter Milan11 pts
85.1
2.6
0.6
+4678<1%77%27%
AC Milan16 pts
81.3
2.3
0.6
+3877<1%72%24%
Juventus9 pts
81.1
2.4
0.7
+3873<1%60%15%
Napoli11 pts
81.3
2.2
0.5
+3773<1%59%15%
Atalanta12 pts
78.4
2.5
0.8
+2971<1%50%10%
Roma12 pts
76.3
2.3
0.8
+2668<1%42%6%
Lazio10 pts
69.8
2.0
0.9
+4581%14%1%
Sassuolo14 pts
66.5
2.1
1.1
+8581%14%1%
Fiorentina7 pts
66.1
1.9
1.0
-3515%4%<1%
Sampdoria10 pts
62.6
1.8
1.0
-4516%4%<1%
Verona9 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
-114512%1%<1%
Bologna6 pts
59.5
1.7
1.1
-144317%<1%<1%
Udinese3 pts
62.7
1.7
0.9
-134219%<1%<1%
Cagliari7 pts
55.7
1.6
1.2
-204122%<1%<1%
Parma5 pts
56.0
1.7
1.2
-214025%<1%<1%
Torino4 pts
57.0
1.7
1.2
-203928%<1%<1%
Benevento6 pts
53.1
1.6
1.3
-273929%<1%<1%
Genoa5 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
-243832%<1%<1%
Spezia5 pts
49.7
1.5
1.3
-333447%<1%<1%
Crotone1 pt
51.6
1.5
1.2
-343255%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments