Updated May 30, 2020, at 9:43 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2019-20 season

Italy

Updated March 10, 2020, at 5:54 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/9
Sassuolo3
58%23%
Brescia0
19%
SASBRS
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG1.90.6
Non-shot xG1.60.6
3/8
Juventus2
49%24%
Inter Milan0
26%
JUVINT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG2.51.3
3/8
Udinese0
35%28%
Fiorentina0
37%
UDIFIO
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.3
Non-shot xG1.10.9
3/8
Sampdoria2
44%28%
Verona1
28%
SMPHEL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG1.31.2
3/8
AC Milan1
54%25%
Genoa2
21%
MILGEN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.41.6
Non-shot xG3.91.1
3/8
Parma0
46%27%
SPAL1
26%
PARSPAL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.51.1
Non-shot xG1.90.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus63 pts
84.3
2.4
0.5
+4088—>99%71%
Lazio62 pts
76.4
2.2
0.7
+4483—>99%23%
Inter Milan54 pts
79.5
2.3
0.7
+3679—96%6%
Atalanta48 pts
82.8
2.7
0.7
+5074<1%88%1%
Roma45 pts
75.2
2.2
0.8
+2266<1%15%<1%
Napoli39 pts
75.1
2.1
0.8
+958<1%2%<1%
AC Milan36 pts
72.5
2.0
0.8
-454<1%<1%<1%
Verona35 pts
64.3
1.7
0.9
+252<1%<1%<1%
Parma35 pts
57.5
1.6
1.1
-549<1%<1%<1%
Bologna34 pts
63.9
1.8
1.0
-749<1%<1%<1%
Fiorentina30 pts
67.9
1.8
0.8
-2481%<1%<1%
Sassuolo32 pts
62.4
1.8
1.1
-3472%<1%<1%
Cagliari32 pts
57.3
1.7
1.2
-5462%<1%<1%
Sampdoria26 pts
62.0
1.7
1.0
-194213%<1%<1%
Genoa25 pts
60.1
1.8
1.1
-174117%<1%—
Torino27 pts
54.3
1.6
1.2
-234117%<1%<1%
Udinese28 pts
57.8
1.5
1.0
-214116%<1%<1%
Lecce25 pts
48.0
1.7
1.6
-313749%<1%—
SPAL18 pts
53.2
1.5
1.2
-293186%<1%—
Brescia16 pts
47.1
1.4
1.4
-382697%<1%—
Forecast from
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