Updated Apr. 18, 2018 at 9:36 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

league-logo

Serie A

2017-18 season

Italy

Updated Apr. 18, 2018, at 4:52 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/21
SPAL
16%
25%
Roma
60%
4/21
Sassuolo
30%
29%
Fiorentina
41%
4/21
AC Milan
75%
18%
Benevento
7%
4/22
Cagliari
37%
30%
Bologna
33%
4/22
Udinese
53%
27%
Crotone
20%
4/22
Lazio
63%
20%
Sampdoria
16%
4/22
Atalanta
57%
26%
Torino
17%
4/22
Chievo
18%
27%
Inter Milan
55%
4/22
Juventus
52%
27%
Napoli
21%
4/23
Genoa
66%
25%
Verona
9%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/18
SPAL0
45%31%
Chievo0
24%
SPALCVO
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.6
Non-shot xG0.61.8
4/18
Verona0
28%29%
Sassuolo1
43%
HELSAS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.51.7
Non-shot xG1.11.6
4/18
Crotone1
9%19%
Juventus1
72%
CROJUV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.50.8
Non-shot xG1.22.4
4/18
Napoli4
78%17%
Udinese2
5%
NAPUDI
Adjusted goals4.12.1
Shot-based xG1.52.3
Non-shot xG1.71.1
4/18
Torino1
38%30%
AC Milan1
32%
TORMIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.3
Non-shot xG1.50.7
4/18
Fiorentina3
40%27%
Lazio4
33%
FIOLAZ
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG1.11.7
4/18
Sampdoria1
49%27%
Bologna0
24%
SMPBOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.4
Non-shot xG2.71.4
4/18
Roma2
65%25%
Genoa1
10%
ROMGEN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.80.7
Non-shot xG1.90.6
4/18
Benevento0
17%23%
Atalanta3
60%
BENATA
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.73.4
Non-shot xG0.91.8
4/17
Inter Milan4
76%18%
Cagliari0
6%
INTCAG
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG2.40.0
Non-shot xG2.60.1
4/15
Lazio0
39%25%
Roma0
36%
LAZROM
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.7
Non-shot xG0.90.7
4/15
Juventus3
82%14%
Sampdoria0
5%
JUVSMP
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG2.41.1
Non-shot xG1.20.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus85 pts
86.5
2.5
0.4
30.05.12.9+659589%
Napoli81 pts
82.0
2.4
0.6
27.67.23.2+519011%
Roma64 pts
79.9
2.3
0.6
21.98.27.9+307484%
Lazio64 pts
77.0
2.5
0.9
21.58.28.3+397367%
Inter Milan63 pts
77.6
2.1
0.6
19.313.35.3+347149%
AC Milan54 pts
70.1
1.8
0.7
17.610.210.2+1063<1%
Atalanta52 pts
76.9
2.1
0.6
16.611.310.1+1961<1%
Fiorentina51 pts
70.8
1.9
0.8
16.010.411.6+1158<1%
Sampdoria51 pts
61.4
1.8
1.1
16.77.214.1+157<1%
Torino47 pts
65.7
1.7
0.9
12.515.310.1+753
Genoa38 pts
60.8
1.4
0.8
11.99.516.6-645<1%
Bologna38 pts
55.4
1.4
1.0
12.46.419.3-943<1%
Udinese33 pts
58.2
1.6
1.0
12.14.421.5-1141<1%
Sassuolo34 pts
56.7
1.5
1.0
9.311.317.3-3139<1%
Chievo31 pts
49.9
1.3
1.1
8.411.318.3-24369%
Cagliari32 pts
48.8
1.4
1.3
10.06.221.8-30366%
SPAL29 pts
49.4
1.3
1.1
6.515.416.2-243521%
Crotone28 pts
49.3
1.4
1.2
8.08.221.7-323266%
Verona25 pts
38.3
1.1
1.4
7.75.125.2-452897%
Benevento14 pts
45.0
1.4
1.5
5.13.329.6-5319>99%
Forecast from
Season

Comments