Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 9:27 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Serie A

2018-19 season

Italy

Updated Oct. 21, 2018, at 4:37 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/22
Sampdoria
46%
26%
Sassuolo
28%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/21
Inter Milan1
48%25%
AC Milan0
27%
INTMIL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.7
Non-shot xG2.00.8
10/21
Fiorentina1
61%24%
Cagliari1
15%
FIOCAG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.21.0
10/21
Chievo1
24%26%
Atalanta5
50%
CVOATA
Adjusted goals1.14.6
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG0.22.5
10/21
Bologna2
34%30%
Torino2
36%
BOLTOR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG0.71.2
10/21
Parma0
20%23%
Lazio2
57%
PARLAZ
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.32.9
Non-shot xG0.61.5
10/21
Frosinone3
36%29%
Empoli3
35%
FROEMP
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.01.3
Non-shot xG0.62.2
10/20
Udinese0
17%24%
Napoli3
59%
UDINAP
Adjusted goals0.02.5
Shot-based xG1.61.9
Non-shot xG1.00.9
10/20
Juventus1
88%9%
Genoa1
2%
JUVGEN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.8
Non-shot xG2.40.4
10/20
Roma0
73%19%
SPAL2
9%
ROMSPAL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.31.8
Non-shot xG2.00.6
10/7
SPAL1
17%24%
Inter Milan2
59%
SPALINT
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG3.01.5
Non-shot xG1.42.4
10/7
Napoli2
71%19%
Sassuolo0
10%
NAPSAS
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.01.1
10/7
Atalanta0
55%25%
Sampdoria1
21%
ATASMP
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.80.5
Non-shot xG2.20.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus25 pts
90.2
2.6
0.3
27.66.63.8+5489<1%98%70%
Napoli21 pts
83.9
2.3
0.5
24.26.57.3+3779<1%85%18%
Inter Milan19 pts
80.8
2.2
0.6
21.27.89.0+2771<1%60%6%
Lazio18 pts
77.0
2.2
0.7
20.46.910.7+2068<1%46%3%
AC Milan12 pts
77.2
2.1
0.7
18.010.29.7+2164<1%33%2%
Roma14 pts
77.4
2.2
0.7
18.18.811.1+1863<1%28%1%
Fiorentina14 pts
72.3
1.9
0.7
16.29.612.2+1558<1%15%<1%
Atalanta9 pts
75.7
2.0
0.7
15.310.212.4+13561%11%<1%
Sampdoria14 pts
65.8
1.8
0.9
14.69.713.7+5542%7%<1%
Sassuolo13 pts
64.1
1.8
1.0
14.58.614.9-3523%6%<1%
Torino13 pts
67.0
1.7
0.8
13.311.713.0-2522%5%<1%
Genoa13 pts
60.2
1.7
1.1
12.68.616.8-14468%2%<1%
SPAL12 pts
59.6
1.5
1.0
12.37.618.1-144511%<1%<1%
Cagliari10 pts
58.9
1.6
1.0
10.211.516.3-154216%<1%<1%
Parma13 pts
53.0
1.5
1.2
10.98.218.8-204118%<1%<1%
Udinese8 pts
58.5
1.5
1.0
10.19.518.3-174022%<1%<1%
Bologna8 pts
56.1
1.4
1.0
9.29.619.2-223731%<1%<1%
Empoli6 pts
57.9
1.6
1.0
8.710.219.1-213634%<1%<1%
Frosinone2 pts
48.6
1.4
1.3
6.08.823.2-432774%<1%<1%
Chievo-1 pt
50.9
1.5
1.2
6.69.022.4-392677%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments