Updated Feb. 19, 2019, at 4:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2018-19 season

Italy

Updated Feb. 18, 2019, at 4:26 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/22
AC Milan
65%
22%
Empoli
13%
2/23
Torino
28%
26%
Atalanta
46%
2/23
Frosinone
17%
22%
Roma
61%
2/24
Sampdoria
54%
24%
Cagliari
21%
2/24
Bologna
15%
21%
Juventus
64%
2/24
Sassuolo
48%
26%
SPAL
25%
2/24
Chievo
38%
27%
Genoa
35%
2/24
Parma
15%
21%
Napoli
64%
2/24
Fiorentina
27%
27%
Inter Milan
46%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/18
Roma2
74%17%
Bologna1
9%
ROMBOL
Adjusted goals2.01.1
Shot-based xG1.72.7
Non-shot xG1.91.5
2/17
Napoli0
63%23%
Torino0
14%
NAPTOR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.00.4
Non-shot xG1.81.1
2/17
Inter Milan2
67%21%
Sampdoria1
12%
INTSMP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.91.2
Non-shot xG2.01.4
2/17
Genoa2
24%25%
Lazio1
51%
GENLAZ
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.6
Non-shot xG1.70.8
2/17
Empoli3
41%26%
Sassuolo0
34%
EMPSAS
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG1.01.2
2/17
Udinese1
47%28%
Chievo0
25%
UDICVO
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.81.9
Non-shot xG0.71.4
2/17
SPAL1
35%28%
Fiorentina4
38%
SPALFIO
Adjusted goals1.13.5
Shot-based xG1.13.1
Non-shot xG0.82.1
2/16
Atalanta1
54%24%
AC Milan3
22%
ATAMIL
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.00.8
Non-shot xG1.50.7
2/16
Cagliari2
49%26%
Parma1
25%
CAGPAR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG1.80.8
2/15
Juventus3
88%10%
Frosinone0
2%
JUVFRO
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.00.8
Non-shot xG2.21.2
2/10
AC Milan3
64%23%
Cagliari0
13%
MILCAG
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.5
Non-shot xG1.11.3
2/10
Sassuolo0
17%22%
Juventus3
61%
SASJUV
Adjusted goals0.02.8
Shot-based xG0.42.3
Non-shot xG1.12.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus66 pts
88.0
2.5
0.4
29.66.02.4+5395—>99%96%
Napoli53 pts
83.7
2.3
0.5
24.28.25.6+3781—99%4%
Inter Milan46 pts
81.6
2.1
0.5
21.47.49.2+2772<1%78%<1%
AC Milan42 pts
75.2
1.9
0.6
17.612.67.7+1966<1%40%<1%
Roma41 pts
76.7
2.3
0.8
18.111.18.8+2465<1%38%<1%
Atalanta38 pts
79.1
2.4
0.7
18.48.011.6+2763<1%25%<1%
Lazio38 pts
74.7
2.0
0.7
17.48.512.0+1261<1%14%<1%
Torino35 pts
69.2
1.7
0.7
13.614.89.6+856<1%3%<1%
Fiorentina35 pts
70.1
1.9
0.8
13.614.59.9+1255<1%3%<1%
Sampdoria33 pts
67.6
1.9
0.9
14.59.513.9+953<1%1%<1%
Sassuolo30 pts
62.9
1.7
1.0
11.712.513.8-848<1%<1%<1%
Genoa28 pts
61.1
1.7
1.0
11.110.516.4-15441%<1%<1%
Parma29 pts
53.5
1.5
1.2
11.48.518.2-17432%<1%<1%
Cagliari24 pts
57.6
1.6
1.1
8.812.516.7-213911%<1%<1%
SPAL22 pts
55.6
1.5
1.1
8.510.618.9-233623%<1%—
Udinese22 pts
55.5
1.5
1.0
8.210.419.4-223529%<1%—
Empoli21 pts
57.1
1.7
1.2
8.69.220.2-243529%<1%—
Bologna18 pts
57.4
1.6
1.1
6.912.518.6-243343%<1%—
Frosinone16 pts
51.2
1.4
1.2
6.310.621.1-373068%<1%—
Chievo9 pts
54.6
1.5
1.2
4.612.520.9-372394%<1%—
Forecast from
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