Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Serie A
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/28
Crotone3
21%26%
Lazio1
53%
CROLAZ
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG0.90.8
5/28
Torino5
48%25%
Sassuolo3
27%
TORSAS
Adjusted goals5.03.2
Shot-based xG2.23.4
Non-shot xG1.42.2
5/28
Fiorentina2
73%18%
Pescara2
9%
FIOPES
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.31.7
Non-shot xG1.72.9
5/28
Palermo2
37%30%
Empoli1
33%
PALEMP
Adjusted goals1.81.1
Shot-based xG0.92.2
Non-shot xG0.61.8
5/28
Inter Milan5
70%20%
Udinese2
10%
INTUDI
Adjusted goals5.12.1
Shot-based xG3.12.8
Non-shot xG1.81.7
5/28
Sampdoria2
15%21%
Napoli4
64%
SMPNAP
Adjusted goals2.14.2
Shot-based xG1.11.6
Non-shot xG1.42.7
5/28
Roma3
88%9%
Genoa2
2%
ROMGEN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.91.5
Non-shot xG3.40.7
5/28
Cagliari2
27%26%
AC Milan1
47%
CAGMIL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.02.2
Non-shot xG1.32.1
5/27
Bologna1
12%23%
Juventus2
65%
BOLJUV
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.42.5
Non-shot xG0.42.4
5/27
Atalanta1
73%19%
Chievo0
8%
ATACVO
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG2.20.7
5/22
Pescara2
47%28%
Palermo0
25%
PESPAL
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG2.00.9
5/21
Lazio1
49%24%
Inter Milan3
27%
LAZINT
Adjusted goals1.13.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.01.5
See all▾
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus91 pts
2.2
0.6
29.04.05.0+5091—✓✓
Roma87 pts
2.6
1.0
28.03.07.0+5287—✓—
Napoli86 pts
2.6
0.8
26.08.04.0+5586—✓—
Atalanta72 pts
1.9
0.9
21.09.08.0+2172———
Lazio70 pts
2.1
1.1
21.07.010.0+2370———
AC Milan63 pts
1.8
1.0
18.09.011.0+1263———
Inter Milan62 pts
2.3
1.1
19.05.014.0+2362———
Fiorentina60 pts
1.9
1.2
16.012.010.0+660———
Torino53 pts
1.9
1.4
13.014.011.0+553———
Sampdoria48 pts
1.6
1.2
12.012.014.0-648———
Cagliari47 pts
1.6
1.5
14.05.019.0-2147———
Sassuolo46 pts
1.8
1.4
13.07.018.0-546———
Udinese45 pts
1.5
1.2
12.09.017.0-945———
Chievo43 pts
1.4
1.3
12.07.019.0-1843———
Bologna41 pts
1.3
1.2
11.08.019.0-1841———
Genoa36 pts
1.3
1.3
9.09.020.0-2636———
Crotone34 pts
1.2
1.1
9.07.022.0-2434———
Empoli32 pts
1.3
1.4
8.08.022.0-3232✓——
Palermo26 pts
1.1
1.5
6.08.024.0-4426✓——
Pescara18 pts
1.4
1.6
3.09.026.0-4418✓——
Forecast from

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