Updated Nov. 17, 2017 at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Serie A

2017-18 season

Italy

Updated Nov. 5, 2017 at 4:42 PM

Upcoming matches
11/18
Roma
49%
24%
Lazio
26%
11/18
Napoli
61%
23%
AC Milan
16%
11/19
Crotone
38%
30%
Genoa
32%
11/19
Udinese
52%
25%
Cagliari
23%
11/19
Sampdoria
21%
22%
Juventus
57%
11/19
Torino
51%
25%
Chievo
24%
11/19
Benevento
27%
29%
Sassuolo
44%
11/19
SPAL
28%
27%
Fiorentina
44%
11/19
Inter Milan
52%
25%
Atalanta
23%
11/20
Verona
32%
32%
Bologna
37%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/5
Sassuolo0
31%28%
AC Milan2
40%
SASMIL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.31.1
Non-shot xG0.81.3
11/5
Atalanta1
69%21%
SPAL1
10%
ATASPAL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.00.9
11/5
Chievo0
15%20%
Napoli0
65%
CVONAP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.9
Non-shot xG0.41.7
11/5
Juventus2
93%6%
Benevento1
<1%
JUVBEN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.60.1
Non-shot xG2.70.2
11/5
Cagliari2
55%26%
Verona1
19%
CAGHEL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.40.7
Non-shot xG2.90.7
11/5
Fiorentina2
29%26%
Roma4
45%
FIOROM
Adjusted goals2.13.8
Shot-based xG1.72.3
Non-shot xG1.11.5
11/5
Inter Milan1
66%20%
Torino1
14%
INTTOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG2.41.2
11/4
Genoa0
38%27%
Sampdoria2
35%
GENSMP
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG1.21.7
Non-shot xG1.31.2
11/4
Bologna2
52%30%
Crotone3
17%
BOLCRO
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.01.9
Non-shot xG1.40.9
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Napoli32 pts
84.9
2.6
0.6
26.67.24.3+5687<1%92%38%
Juventus31 pts
86.1
2.7
0.6
26.76.25.2+5786<1%91%35%
Roma27 pts
81.2
2.5
0.7
24.75.87.5+4080<1%73%12%
Lazio28 pts
78.7
2.5
0.8
23.66.97.5+4078<1%64%9%
Inter Milan30 pts
77.3
2.3
0.8
22.58.96.6+3176<1%59%7%
AC Milan19 pts
72.3
1.9
0.7
18.17.612.2+1362<1%8%<1%
Sampdoria23 pts
65.6
2.0
1.0
17.18.512.4+1060<1%7%<1%
Atalanta16 pts
71.2
2.0
0.8
15.610.512.0+1157<1%3%<1%
Fiorentina16 pts
66.8
2.0
1.0
15.47.315.4+653<1%1%<1%
Torino17 pts
61.3
1.8
1.1
12.911.313.8-7502%<1%<1%
Udinese12 pts
61.4
1.7
1.0
13.56.817.8-8474%<1%<1%
Chievo16 pts
55.6
1.5
1.1
11.810.615.6-15464%<1%<1%
Bologna14 pts
55.2
1.4
1.0
11.49.117.5-14437%<1%<1%
Cagliari12 pts
54.2
1.6
1.2
10.86.420.8-253918%<1%<1%
Sassuolo8 pts
57.3
1.6
1.1
10.18.619.3-233919%<1%<1%
Genoa6 pts
56.2
1.5
1.0
8.99.819.2-183725%<1%<1%
Crotone12 pts
49.9
1.3
1.2
8.99.419.7-313627%<1%<1%
SPAL9 pts
50.0
1.3
1.1
8.49.819.7-253531%<1%<1%
Verona6 pts
42.8
1.2
1.3
5.99.222.9-432771%<1%<1%
Benevento0 pts
39.5
1.1
1.3
4.36.027.7-541993%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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