Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Serie A
Upcoming
4/1
Sassuolo
22%
27%
Lazio
51%
4/1
Roma
88%
10%
Empoli
2%
4/2
Torino
49%
27%
Udinese
24%
4/2
Palermo
38%
30%
Cagliari
33%
4/2
Fiorentina
63%
24%
Bologna
12%
4/2
Genoa
26%
29%
Atalanta
45%
4/2
Pescara
23%
26%
AC Milan
51%
4/2
Chievo
57%
28%
Crotone
15%
4/2
Napoli
31%
29%
Juventus
41%
4/3
Inter Milan
75%
17%
Sampdoria
7%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Roma3
84%13%
Sassuolo1
4%
ROMSAS
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.50.9
Non-shot xG2.51.2
3/19
Udinese4
58%27%
Palermo1
15%
UDIPAL
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG2.80.5
Non-shot xG1.30.4
3/19
Crotone0
22%28%
Fiorentina1
50%
CROFIO
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.82.3
Non-shot xG0.73.2
3/19
Bologna4
38%32%
Chievo1
30%
BOLCVO
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.01.2
Non-shot xG1.20.9
3/19
Atalanta3
74%18%
Pescara0
8%
ATAPES
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG2.30.3
Non-shot xG2.61.2
3/19
Cagliari0
20%25%
Lazio0
55%
CAGLAZ
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.20.9
Non-shot xG0.81.7
3/19
Sampdoria0
16%25%
Juventus1
59%
SMPJUV
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.62.2
Non-shot xG1.11.6
3/19
Empoli2
12%20%
Napoli3
68%
EMPNAP
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG1.51.1
3/18
AC Milan1
63%24%
Genoa0
13%
MILGEN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.4
Non-shot xG1.80.3
3/18
Torino2
22%23%
Inter Milan2
55%
TORINT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.12.1
Non-shot xG1.42.5
3/13
Lazio3
60%23%
Torino1
17%
LAZTOR
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.60.4
Non-shot xG2.70.5
3/12
Palermo0
13%21%
Roma3
66%
PALROM
Adjusted goals0.02.5
Shot-based xG0.72.8
Non-shot xG0.41.2
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus73 pts
2.3
0.5
30.02.85.2+5393>99%93%
Roma65 pts
2.4
0.8
26.63.97.5+498496%6%
Napoli63 pts
2.4
0.9
23.88.06.2+437975%<1%
Lazio57 pts
1.9
0.8
21.38.38.4+257210%<1%
Inter Milan55 pts
2.4
0.9
22.65.99.5+347417%<1%
Atalanta55 pts
1.8
0.9
21.16.410.5+17702%<1%
AC Milan53 pts
1.7
1.0
20.27.310.6+1468<1%<1%
Fiorentina48 pts
1.8
1.0
17.311.29.5+1363<1%<1%
Torino40 pts
1.9
1.3
13.712.112.1+753<1%<1%
Sampdoria41 pts
1.5
1.1
13.710.313.9-251<1%<1%
Chievo38 pts
1.4
1.2
13.67.317.1-1148<1%<1%
Udinese36 pts
1.4
1.1
12.98.416.7-447<1%
Bologna34 pts
1.3
1.1
11.29.517.3-1843<1%
Cagliari32 pts
1.3
1.4
11.87.318.9-2543<1%
Sassuolo31 pts
1.4
1.3
11.26.220.5-1640<1%
Genoa29 pts
1.3
1.2
8.910.218.8-2037<1%
Empoli22 pts
1.1
1.4
6.99.321.8-363022%
Palermo15 pts
1.1
1.5
5.38.424.4-412485%
Pescara12 pts
1.4
1.7
4.38.225.6-432195%
Crotone14 pts
1.0
1.3
4.47.226.4-372098%
Forecast from

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