Updated Dec. 12, 2019, at 5:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2019-20 season

Italy

Updated Dec. 12, 2019, at 5:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches
December 10-16
12/14
Brescia
43%
26%
Lecce
31%
12/14
Napoli
71%
19%
Parma
10%
12/14
Genoa
42%
27%
Sampdoria
31%
12/15
Verona
40%
29%
Torino
31%
12/15
AC Milan
57%
24%
Sassuolo
19%
12/15
Juventus
86%
11%
Udinese
3%
12/15
Bologna
25%
23%
Atalanta
52%
12/15
Roma
69%
20%
SPAL
10%
12/15
Fiorentina
26%
24%
Inter Milan
50%
12/16
Cagliari
27%
24%
Lazio
48%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
December 3-9
12/8
Bologna2
33%28%
AC Milan3
39%
BOLMIL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.31.9
Non-shot xG1.41.1
12/8
Sampdoria0
48%27%
Parma1
25%
SMPPAR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG1.61.3
12/8
SPAL0
46%28%
Brescia1
26%
SPALBRS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.22.5
Non-shot xG1.40.2
12/8
Sassuolo2
45%25%
Cagliari2
30%
SASCAG
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.90.5
Non-shot xG1.50.7
12/8
Torino2
38%28%
Fiorentina1
34%
TORFIO
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.7
Non-shot xG0.81.4
12/8
Lecce2
41%25%
Genoa2
33%
LECGEN
Adjusted goals1.92.1
Shot-based xG1.22.6
Non-shot xG2.31.6
12/7
Lazio3
26%24%
Juventus1
50%
LAZJUV
Adjusted goals2.31.1
Shot-based xG3.21.5
Non-shot xG1.01.6
12/7
Udinese1
18%23%
Napoli1
59%
UDINAP
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.3
Non-shot xG0.61.8
12/7
Atalanta3
70%19%
Verona2
11%
ATAHEL
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG2.61.0
Non-shot xG2.20.9
12/6
Inter Milan0
48%24%
Roma0
27%
INTROM
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.2
Non-shot xG1.30.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus36 pts
85.1
2.5
0.5
+4085<1%97%58%
Inter Milan38 pts
79.9
2.3
0.7
+3681<1%91%29%
Lazio33 pts
73.4
2.1
0.8
+3171<1%60%5%
Atalanta28 pts
76.8
2.4
0.8
+2969<1%53%3%
Roma29 pts
76.2
2.1
0.7
+2369<1%50%3%
Napoli21 pts
79.5
2.3
0.7
+2264<1%28%<1%
AC Milan20 pts
73.1
1.9
0.7
+557<1%9%<1%
Cagliari29 pts
59.8
1.7
1.1
+355<1%7%<1%
Torino20 pts
61.9
1.6
0.9
-8485%1%<1%
Fiorentina16 pts
67.6
1.9
0.9
-3486%1%<1%
Parma21 pts
58.3
1.6
1.1
-7477%<1%<1%
Bologna16 pts
62.6
1.8
1.0
-84510%<1%<1%
Sassuolo15 pts
61.1
1.8
1.1
-74512%<1%<1%
Verona18 pts
57.0
1.5
1.0
-124315%<1%<1%
Lecce15 pts
53.9
1.7
1.3
-204026%<1%<1%
Sampdoria12 pts
61.0
1.6
0.9
-203930%<1%<1%
Udinese15 pts
54.1
1.5
1.1
-283837%<1%<1%
Genoa11 pts
57.2
1.7
1.2
-223738%<1%<1%
Brescia10 pts
52.9
1.5
1.2
-293551%<1%<1%
SPAL9 pts
54.6
1.4
1.1
-263264%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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