Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Serie A

2017-18 season

Italy

Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:39 PM

Upcoming matches
9/30
Udinese
39%
28%
Sampdoria
33%
9/30
Genoa
42%
31%
Bologna
27%
10/1
Napoli
80%
14%
Cagliari
6%
10/1
Lazio
59%
22%
Sassuolo
18%
10/1
Torino
67%
22%
Verona
11%
10/1
Benevento
12%
20%
Inter Milan
68%
10/1
Chievo
37%
27%
Fiorentina
36%
10/1
SPAL
44%
31%
Crotone
25%
10/1
AC Milan
36%
26%
Roma
38%
10/1
Atalanta
26%
27%
Juventus
47%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/24
Fiorentina1
38%27%
Atalanta1
35%
FIOATA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.42.7
Non-shot xG1.22.2
9/24
Sassuolo0
51%28%
Bologna1
21%
SASBOL
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG0.41.0
Non-shot xG0.41.1
9/24
Verona0
18%24%
Lazio3
58%
HELLAZ
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.32.0
Non-shot xG0.71.8
9/24
Crotone2
51%31%
Benevento0
19%
CROBEN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.22.0
Non-shot xG1.51.1
9/24
Cagliari0
48%27%
Chievo2
25%
CAGCVO
Adjusted goals0.01.3
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG1.22.2
9/24
Inter Milan1
75%17%
Genoa0
8%
INTGEN
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.60.8
9/24
Sampdoria2
31%26%
AC Milan0
43%
SMPMIL
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.60.3
Non-shot xG0.91.0
9/23
Juventus4
77%16%
Torino0
7%
JUVTOR
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG2.40.2
Non-shot xG2.70.4
9/23
SPAL2
11%19%
Napoli3
70%
SPALNAP
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.22.0
Non-shot xG0.52.0
9/23
Roma3
76%16%
Udinese1
8%
ROMUDI
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.10.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
9/20
Verona0
26%28%
Sampdoria0
46%
HELSMP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG0.72.1
9/20
Genoa1
45%28%
Chievo1
27%
GENCVO
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.4
Non-shot xG1.01.7
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus18 pts
87.0
2.6
0.5
27.06.54.5+5787<1%93%44%
Napoli18 pts
84.7
2.8
0.7
26.26.25.6+5685<1%89%33%
Roma12 pts
80.9
2.6
0.8
22.87.18.1+3876<1%64%10%
Inter Milan16 pts
78.6
2.4
0.8
22.28.37.6+3475<1%62%8%
Lazio13 pts
73.2
2.2
0.9
19.18.410.5+1966<1%28%2%
AC Milan12 pts
73.3
2.1
0.8
18.77.911.4+1464<1%24%1%
Atalanta8 pts
73.1
2.0
0.8
17.310.010.7+1762<1%18%<1%
Sampdoria11 pts
62.9
1.7
1.0
14.510.513.0-1542%6%<1%
Torino11 pts
63.2
1.9
1.1
14.69.813.6-2542%6%<1%
Fiorentina7 pts
65.6
1.9
1.0
14.69.014.5+3532%5%<1%
Chievo8 pts
57.6
1.6
1.0
12.110.415.5-10476%2%<1%
Bologna8 pts
56.7
1.4
0.9
11.411.015.6-12458%<1%<1%
Sassuolo4 pts
60.5
1.7
1.1
11.89.117.1-13459%<1%<1%
Cagliari6 pts
57.8
1.7
1.1
11.88.118.2-164310%<1%<1%
Udinese3 pts
57.7
1.6
1.1
10.88.219.0-164117%<1%<1%
Genoa2 pts
55.6
1.5
1.1
9.510.418.1-173921%<1%<1%
SPAL4 pts
49.5
1.3
1.1
8.79.419.9-263532%<1%<1%
Crotone4 pts
49.1
1.2
1.1
7.99.520.7-323341%<1%<1%
Verona2 pts
40.8
1.1
1.2
5.39.922.7-452671%<1%<1%
Benevento0 pts
40.8
1.1
1.3
5.37.625.1-492479%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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