Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2020-21

Italy

Updated Oct. 27, 2020, at 5:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/31
Crotone
15%
20%
Atalanta
65%
10/31
Inter Milan
82%
12%
Parma
6%
10/31
Bologna
46%
26%
Cagliari
28%
11/1
Udinese
20%
24%
AC Milan
56%
11/1
Torino
29%
25%
Lazio
46%
11/1
Spezia
11%
19%
Juventus
70%
11/1
Roma
54%
23%
Fiorentina
23%
11/1
Napoli
63%
20%
Sassuolo
16%
11/1
Sampdoria
50%
25%
Genoa
24%
11/2
Verona
46%
28%
Benevento
27%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/26
AC Milan3
49%24%
Roma3
27%
MILROM
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG3.12.2
Non-shot xG2.21.2
10/25
Juventus1
72%19%
Verona1
9%
JUVHEL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.90.8
10/25
Fiorentina3
49%27%
Udinese2
25%
FIOUDI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.22.4
Non-shot xG0.91.5
10/25
Benevento1
14%21%
Napoli2
65%
BENNAP
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.72.6
Non-shot xG0.82.7
10/25
Parma2
46%27%
Spezia2
28%
PARSPEZ
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG3.60.8
Non-shot xG2.41.0
10/25
Cagliari4
44%28%
Crotone2
29%
CAGCRO
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG1.71.6
Non-shot xG1.61.5
10/24
Lazio2
56%23%
Bologna1
21%
LAZBOL
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG0.92.0
10/24
Genoa0
12%17%
Inter Milan2
71%
GENINT
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.01.8
Non-shot xG0.22.1
10/24
Atalanta1
67%19%
Sampdoria3
14%
ATASMP
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG2.52.5
Non-shot xG2.30.6
10/23
Sassuolo3
53%23%
Torino3
24%
SASTOR
Adjusted goals3.22.9
Shot-based xG1.82.2
Non-shot xG2.11.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Inter Milan10 pts
85.4
2.6
0.6
+4880<1%82%33%
Napoli11 pts
81.8
2.2
0.5
+3975<1%65%19%
AC Milan13 pts
80.6
2.3
0.7
+3675<1%66%18%
Juventus6 pts
81.8
2.4
0.6
+3673<1%58%13%
Atalanta9 pts
79.0
2.5
0.8
+3071<1%51%10%
Roma9 pts
75.3
2.3
0.8
+2366<1%35%5%
Lazio7 pts
70.3
2.0
0.9
+4572%13%<1%
Sassuolo11 pts
65.6
2.1
1.1
+3552%10%<1%
Fiorentina7 pts
67.7
1.9
0.9
+1534%8%<1%
Sampdoria9 pts
63.2
1.8
1.0
-2525%6%<1%
Verona6 pts
59.5
1.5
1.0
-124416%1%<1%
Udinese3 pts
62.9
1.7
0.9
-134317%1%<1%
Cagliari7 pts
55.8
1.6
1.2
-204220%<1%<1%
Bologna3 pts
59.6
1.7
1.1
-144220%<1%<1%
Benevento6 pts
53.6
1.6
1.2
-254026%<1%<1%
Genoa4 pts
54.0
1.5
1.2
-263930%<1%<1%
Torino1 pt
57.3
1.7
1.2
-203931%<1%<1%
Parma4 pts
55.7
1.7
1.2
-253831%<1%<1%
Spezia5 pts
50.1
1.4
1.3
-313445%<1%<1%
Crotone1 pt
52.5
1.5
1.2
-333350%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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