Updated Aug. 3, 2020, at 10:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2019-20

Italy

Updated Aug. 2, 2020, at 4:46 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
July 28 - August 3
8/2
Lecce3
44%24%
Parma4
32%
LECPAR
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG2.43.1
Non-shot xG2.41.7
8/2
Sassuolo0
42%27%
Udinese1
31%
SASUDI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.12.1
Non-shot xG2.01.3
8/2
Bologna1
39%27%
Torino1
34%
BOLTOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.7
Non-shot xG1.01.2
8/2
Genoa3
42%27%
Verona0
32%
GENHEL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG0.42.0
8/2
SPAL1
27%27%
Fiorentina3
46%
SPALFIO
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.82.2
Non-shot xG0.92.0
8/1
Napoli3
41%26%
Lazio1
33%
NAPLAZ
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.81.2
Non-shot xG1.81.0
8/1
Juventus1
43%24%
Roma3
33%
JUVROM
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.11.8
Non-shot xG0.60.8
8/1
Atalanta0
41%24%
Inter Milan2
35%
ATAINT
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.21.1
Non-shot xG1.91.6
8/1
AC Milan3
51%25%
Cagliari0
24%
MILCAG
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.50.3
Non-shot xG3.50.6
8/1
Brescia1
30%25%
Sampdoria1
45%
BRSSMP
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.72.1
Non-shot xG1.41.4
7/29
Torino2
29%25%
Roma3
46%
TORROM
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.72.5
Non-shot xG1.01.4
7/29
Cagliari2
24%24%
Juventus0
52%
CAGJUV
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG0.81.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus83 pts
80.5
2.3
0.7
+3383—✓✓
Inter Milan82 pts
81.9
2.4
0.6
+4582—✓—
Atalanta78 pts
82.6
2.5
0.7
+5078—✓—
Lazio78 pts
71.4
2.1
0.9
+3778—✓—
Roma70 pts
76.8
2.3
0.8
+2670———
AC Milan66 pts
80.8
2.4
0.7
+1766———
Napoli62 pts
77.8
2.1
0.6
+1162———
Sassuolo51 pts
66.2
2.0
1.1
+651———
Fiorentina49 pts
69.4
1.8
0.8
+349———
Parma49 pts
56.4
1.7
1.3
-149———
Verona49 pts
60.5
1.7
1.0
-449———
Bologna47 pts
58.8
1.7
1.1
-1347———
Cagliari45 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
-445———
Udinese45 pts
61.9
1.6
0.9
-1445———
Sampdoria42 pts
61.9
1.8
1.1
-1742———
Torino40 pts
57.9
1.7
1.1
-2240———
Genoa39 pts
56.0
1.7
1.2
-2639———
Lecce35 pts
50.7
1.8
1.6
-3335✓——
Brescia25 pts
45.0
1.5
1.5
-4425✓——
SPAL20 pts
45.9
1.4
1.4
-5020✓——
Forecast from
Season

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