Updated Jan. 22, 2020, at 5:09 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2019-20 season

Italy

Updated Jan. 20, 2020, at 4:43 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 21-27
1/24
Brescia
25%
26%
AC Milan
49%
1/25
SPAL
38%
27%
Bologna
35%
1/25
Fiorentina
53%
25%
Genoa
23%
1/25
Torino
19%
22%
Atalanta
59%
1/26
Inter Milan
75%
16%
Cagliari
9%
1/26
Parma
44%
28%
Udinese
29%
1/26
Sampdoria
45%
27%
Sassuolo
28%
1/26
Verona
50%
25%
Lecce
25%
1/26
Roma
47%
25%
Lazio
29%
1/26
Napoli
30%
25%
Juventus
46%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 14-20
1/20
Atalanta1
81%14%
SPAL2
6%
ATASPAL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.61.2
Non-shot xG2.41.0
1/19
Juventus2
85%11%
Parma1
4%
JUVPAR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG2.01.4
1/19
Genoa1
22%23%
Roma3
55%
GENROM
Adjusted goals1.13.0
Shot-based xG1.11.8
Non-shot xG1.51.5
1/19
Lecce1
15%19%
Inter Milan1
66%
LECINT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.22.0
Non-shot xG0.92.5
1/19
Brescia2
42%26%
Cagliari2
32%
BRSCAG
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.13.0
Non-shot xG1.72.9
1/19
Bologna1
51%26%
Verona1
24%
BOLHEL
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.02.5
Non-shot xG0.92.2
1/19
AC Milan3
59%25%
Udinese2
16%
MILUDI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.91.3
Non-shot xG3.11.1
1/18
Napoli0
58%23%
Fiorentina2
18%
NAPFIO
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG0.70.9
Non-shot xG1.61.2
1/18
Sassuolo2
45%26%
Torino1
28%
SASTOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.1
Non-shot xG1.31.5
1/18
Lazio5
61%23%
Sampdoria1
16%
LAZSMP
Adjusted goals5.31.1
Shot-based xG4.30.6
Non-shot xG1.60.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus51 pts
83.8
2.5
0.6
+4088—>99%67%
Inter Milan47 pts
79.9
2.3
0.7
+3881<1%94%18%
Lazio45 pts
77.0
2.2
0.8
+4078<1%90%13%
Roma38 pts
77.2
2.2
0.7
+2670<1%54%1%
Atalanta35 pts
79.8
2.5
0.8
+3869<1%54%<1%
AC Milan28 pts
72.5
1.9
0.7
+056<1%3%<1%
Napoli24 pts
76.6
2.2
0.7
+1055<1%3%<1%
Fiorentina24 pts
68.4
1.8
0.8
-2502%<1%<1%
Cagliari30 pts
57.3
1.7
1.2
-5501%<1%<1%
Parma28 pts
57.8
1.6
1.1
-6492%<1%<1%
Torino27 pts
60.9
1.7
1.0
-7492%<1%<1%
Verona26 pts
60.3
1.6
1.0
-7483%<1%<1%
Bologna24 pts
63.3
1.8
1.0
-6474%<1%<1%
Udinese24 pts
56.2
1.6
1.1
-204411%<1%<1%
Sassuolo22 pts
59.9
1.7
1.1
-94310%<1%<1%
Sampdoria19 pts
61.4
1.6
1.0
-174117%<1%<1%
SPAL15 pts
54.8
1.5
1.1
-243555%<1%<1%
Genoa14 pts
56.0
1.7
1.2
-283457%<1%<1%
Lecce16 pts
50.0
1.6
1.4
-293363%<1%<1%
Brescia15 pts
50.1
1.5
1.3
-333273%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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