Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2018-19 season

Italy

Updated May 26, 2019, at 4:39 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/26
SPAL2
24%27%
AC Milan3
50%
SPALMIL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.61.8
Non-shot xG0.81.7
5/26
Atalanta3
80%14%
Sassuolo1
6%
ATASAS
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG2.10.6
5/26
Cagliari1
41%27%
Udinese2
32%
CAGUDI
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.80.8
Non-shot xG2.90.9
5/26
Fiorentina0
38%29%
Genoa0
33%
FIOGEN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.30.1
Non-shot xG0.70.3
5/26
Roma2
62%21%
Parma1
17%
ROMPAR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG2.70.7
5/26
Inter Milan2
76%16%
Empoli1
8%
INTEMP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.21.8
Non-shot xG3.71.9
5/26
Sampdoria2
32%26%
Juventus0
42%
SMPJUV
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.90.7
5/26
Torino3
37%27%
Lazio1
35%
TORLAZ
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG2.51.5
Non-shot xG1.11.1
5/25
Bologna3
33%26%
Napoli2
41%
BOLNAP
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.12.1
Non-shot xG1.22.2
5/25
Frosinone0
42%28%
Chievo0
30%
FROCVO
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.1
Non-shot xG1.60.4
5/20
Lazio3
53%25%
Bologna3
22%
LAZBOL
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG2.22.4
Non-shot xG2.22.3
5/19
Napoli4
37%28%
Inter Milan1
35%
NAPINT
Adjusted goals4.01.1
Shot-based xG1.72.2
Non-shot xG1.72.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus90 pts
80.9
2.2
0.5
28.06.04.0+4090—✓✓
Napoli79 pts
79.9
2.3
0.7
24.07.07.0+3879—✓—
Atalanta69 pts
82.5
2.4
0.6
20.09.09.0+3169—✓—
Inter Milan69 pts
81.6
2.2
0.5
20.09.09.0+2469—✓—
AC Milan68 pts
74.1
1.9
0.6
19.011.08.0+1968———
Roma66 pts
74.3
2.2
0.8
18.012.08.0+1866———
Torino63 pts
69.5
1.8
0.8
16.015.07.0+1563———
Lazio59 pts
72.1
2.1
0.8
17.08.013.0+1059———
Sampdoria53 pts
68.3
1.9
0.9
15.08.015.0+953———
Bologna44 pts
67.5
1.9
0.9
11.011.016.0-844———
Udinese43 pts
56.4
1.6
1.1
11.010.017.0-1443———
Sassuolo43 pts
60.8
1.7
1.1
9.016.013.0-743———
SPAL42 pts
60.2
1.7
1.1
11.09.018.0-1242———
Parma41 pts
51.6
1.5
1.2
10.011.017.0-2041———
Cagliari41 pts
58.5
1.7
1.1
10.011.017.0-1841———
Fiorentina41 pts
67.3
1.7
0.8
8.017.013.0+241———
Genoa38 pts
65.2
1.7
0.8
8.014.016.0-1838———
Empoli38 pts
57.5
1.9
1.3
10.08.020.0-1938✓——
Frosinone25 pts
53.2
1.5
1.2
5.010.023.0-4025✓——
Chievo17 pts
49.1
1.3
1.2
2.014.022.0-5017✓——
Forecast from
Season

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