Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2019-20 season

Italy

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 4:41 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 15-21
10/21
Brescia
29%
26%
Fiorentina
44%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
AC Milan2
65%22%
Lecce2
14%
MILLEC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.62.0
Non-shot xG2.10.5
10/20
Parma5
41%28%
Genoa1
31%
PARGEN
Adjusted goals5.01.1
Shot-based xG2.32.2
Non-shot xG1.82.7
10/20
Cagliari2
48%27%
SPAL0
25%
CAGSPAL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.01.5
10/20
Sampdoria0
28%26%
Roma0
46%
SMPROM
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.5
Non-shot xG1.21.3
10/20
Udinese1
42%29%
Torino0
30%
UDITOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG0.91.2
10/20
Sassuolo3
22%24%
Inter Milan4
55%
SASINT
Adjusted goals3.24.2
Shot-based xG0.73.0
Non-shot xG1.01.7
10/19
Juventus2
80%14%
Bologna1
5%
JUVBOL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.1
Non-shot xG2.20.8
10/19
Napoli2
80%15%
Verona0
5%
NAPHEL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.22.2
Non-shot xG1.51.3
10/19
Lazio3
43%25%
Atalanta3
32%
LAZATA
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG2.92.6
Non-shot xG1.81.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus22 pts
87.1
2.6
0.5
+5088<1%98%65%
Inter Milan21 pts
80.2
2.3
0.6
+3678<1%84%18%
Napoli16 pts
81.3
2.4
0.6
+3474<1%74%10%
Atalanta17 pts
71.0
2.1
1.0
+1764<1%38%3%
Roma13 pts
73.0
2.0
0.8
+12611%27%1%
Fiorentina11 pts
70.0
2.0
0.9
+10592%22%<1%
Lazio12 pts
70.8
2.0
0.9
+15582%20%<1%
AC Milan10 pts
71.2
1.9
0.8
+3553%14%<1%
Bologna9 pts
65.0
1.8
0.9
-3499%5%<1%
Cagliari14 pts
59.2
1.6
1.0
-64810%4%<1%
Torino10 pts
60.9
1.7
1.0
-94613%3%<1%
Parma12 pts
58.0
1.6
1.1
-114516%2%<1%
Udinese10 pts
60.2
1.5
0.9
-134419%2%<1%
Brescia6 pts
57.0
1.6
1.1
-144325%2%<1%
Sassuolo6 pts
59.1
1.7
1.1
-134225%2%<1%
Verona9 pts
57.1
1.5
1.0
-134224%1%<1%
Sampdoria4 pts
60.2
1.6
1.0
-194129%<1%<1%
Genoa5 pts
57.3
1.7
1.2
-233934%<1%<1%
Lecce7 pts
52.9
1.5
1.2
-253839%<1%<1%
SPAL6 pts
53.4
1.5
1.1
-273648%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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