Updated June 16, 2018 at 10:01 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Serie A

2017-18 season

Italy

Updated May 20, 2018, at 4:44 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
5/20
Sassuolo0
21%26%
Roma1
53%
SASROM
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.8
Non-shot xG1.31.8
5/20
Lazio2
45%25%
Inter Milan3
29%
LAZINT
Adjusted goals2.12.9
Shot-based xG1.42.6
Non-shot xG1.91.3
5/20
SPAL3
35%29%
Sampdoria1
36%
SPALSMP
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG2.00.7
Non-shot xG0.91.7
5/20
Chievo1
51%26%
Benevento0
23%
CVOBEN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG0.30.9
5/20
Napoli2
80%15%
Crotone1
5%
NAPCRO
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG2.30.5
5/20
Cagliari1
19%25%
Atalanta0
57%
CAGATA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG1.41.8
5/20
AC Milan5
43%29%
Fiorentina1
28%
MILFIO
Adjusted goals5.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.40.6
5/20
Udinese1
46%29%
Bologna0
25%
UDIBOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG1.81.3
5/20
Genoa1
38%30%
Torino2
31%
GENTOR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG1.80.8
5/19
Juventus2
92%7%
Verona1
1%
JUVHEL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.80.4
Non-shot xG3.00.4
5/13
Sampdoria0
22%25%
Napoli2
53%
SMPNAP
Adjusted goals0.01.8
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG1.21.8
5/13
Roma0
37%28%
Juventus0
36%
ROMJUV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.3
Non-shot xG1.00.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Serie Awin league
Juventus95 pts
84.6
2.4
0.5
30.05.03.0+6295
Napoli91 pts
80.8
2.3
0.6
28.07.03.0+4891
Roma77 pts
80.8
2.3
0.6
23.08.07.0+3377
Lazio72 pts
78.0
2.5
0.9
21.09.08.0+4072
Inter Milan72 pts
78.3
2.2
0.7
20.012.06.0+3672
AC Milan64 pts
71.9
1.9
0.8
18.010.010.0+1464
Atalanta60 pts
76.9
2.1
0.7
16.012.010.0+1860
Fiorentina57 pts
68.5
1.9
0.9
16.09.013.0+857
Torino54 pts
65.5
1.8
0.9
13.015.010.0+854
Sampdoria54 pts
57.9
1.7
1.2
16.06.016.0-454
Sassuolo43 pts
57.8
1.5
1.0
11.010.017.0-3043
Genoa41 pts
59.1
1.5
0.9
11.08.019.0-1041
Udinese40 pts
56.2
1.5
1.1
12.04.022.0-1540
Chievo40 pts
52.3
1.4
1.1
10.010.018.0-2340
Bologna39 pts
53.4
1.4
1.0
11.06.021.0-1239
Cagliari39 pts
51.8
1.4
1.1
11.06.021.0-2839
SPAL38 pts
51.3
1.3
1.1
8.014.016.0-2038
Crotone35 pts
53.0
1.5
1.2
9.08.021.0-2635
Verona25 pts
37.8
1.2
1.5
7.04.027.0-4825
Benevento21 pts
46.9
1.4
1.4
6.03.029.0-5121
Forecast from
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