Updated April 12, 2021, at 5:06 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Serie A

2020-21

Italy

Updated April 12, 2021, at 4:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 13-19
4/17
Sampdoria
37%
30%
Verona
33%
4/17
Crotone
26%
25%
Udinese
48%
4/17
Sassuolo
45%
25%
Fiorentina
30%
4/17
Cagliari
42%
27%
Parma
31%
4/18
AC Milan
71%
20%
Genoa
10%
4/18
Lazio
69%
20%
Benevento
11%
4/18
Atalanta
45%
24%
Juventus
32%
4/18
Bologna
46%
26%
Spezia
28%
4/18
Torino
28%
25%
Roma
47%
4/18
Napoli
39%
26%
Inter Milan
35%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 6-12
4/12
Benevento0
28%24%
Sassuolo1
47%
BENSAS
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.51.1
Non-shot xG0.81.2
4/11
Fiorentina2
15%21%
Atalanta3
64%
FIOATA
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.53.2
Non-shot xG1.02.9
4/11
Roma1
61%22%
Bologna0
17%
ROMBOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.02.2
Non-shot xG1.41.5
4/11
Verona0
25%26%
Lazio1
49%
HELLAZ
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.30.7
Non-shot xG0.81.3
4/11
Juventus3
83%13%
Genoa1
4%
JUVGEN
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.31.4
Non-shot xG2.31.3
4/11
Sampdoria0
18%23%
Napoli2
59%
SMPNAP
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG1.32.1
Non-shot xG1.71.9
4/11
Inter Milan1
77%16%
Cagliari0
7%
INTCAG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.4
Non-shot xG2.20.9
4/10
Udinese0
41%28%
Torino1
31%
UDITOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.11.7
Non-shot xG1.80.9
4/10
Parma1
20%23%
AC Milan3
57%
PARMIL
Adjusted goals0.82.6
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.81.5
4/10
Spezia3
54%24%
Crotone2
23%
SPEZCRO
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG1.31.4
4/7
Juventus2
52%24%
Napoli1
25%
JUVNAP
Adjusted goals2.01.1
Shot-based xG1.71.5
Non-shot xG1.31.7
4/7
Inter Milan2
73%16%
Sassuolo1
10%
INTSAS
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.41.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Serie Awin league
Inter Milan74 pts
84.6
2.4
0.5
+5090—>99%98%
Atalanta61 pts
83.9
2.6
0.6
+4277—80%<1%
Juventus62 pts
82.7
2.5
0.6
+4077—77%<1%
AC Milan63 pts
75.9
2.1
0.7
+2677—74%<1%
Napoli59 pts
77.3
2.2
0.7
+3774—47%<1%
Lazio55 pts
73.9
2.1
0.8
+1270—18%<1%
Roma54 pts
75.4
2.1
0.7
+1667—3%<1%
Sassuolo43 pts
65.7
2.0
1.1
+053<1%<1%—
Verona41 pts
61.7
1.6
0.9
-151<1%<1%—
Sampdoria36 pts
59.9
1.6
1.0
-846<1%——
Bologna34 pts
61.5
1.8
1.1
-944<1%——
Udinese33 pts
64.6
1.7
0.9
-944<1%——
Spezia32 pts
56.8
1.6
1.2
-19401%——
Genoa32 pts
55.9
1.5
1.0
-16403%——
Fiorentina30 pts
62.9
1.7
1.0
-13404%——
Torino27 pts
61.7
1.7
1.0
-12389%——
Benevento30 pts
50.3
1.4
1.2
-313714%——
Cagliari22 pts
56.8
1.6
1.1
-233177%——
Parma20 pts
57.6
1.7
1.2
-352892%——
Crotone15 pts
46.5
1.6
1.6
-4622>99%——
Forecast from
Season

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