UPDATED Mar. 3, 2020, at 9:40 AM

Pick Your Own Super Tuesday Winners And Watch The Race Change

We’re letting you be the boss of our Democratic primary forecast. Decide what happens in these 15 contests and see how candidates’ odds change.

2020 Democratic primary forecastHow our primary forecast works

By Nate Silver, Aaron Bycoffe, Ella Koeze and Julia Wolfe

1🗳️Pick a winner Pick the winner in one of the contests below. (You’re limited to the top five candidates because, as you’ll soon learn, the 20,000 model simulations you start with can run out fast.)

2✨🤖✨Beep boop The simulations where another candidate wins that state are thrown out, and each candidate’s odds of winning a majority of pledged delegates are adjusted.

3🗳️🗳️🗳️Pick more winners! Keep picking winners and see what your choices would mean for the rest of the primary. Good luck!

Choose how Super Tuesday goes

Share of simulations where candidate wins that state
0%
100
This happens in less than 0.5% of simulations
Candidate

Choose how Super Tuesday goes

Share of simulations where candidate wins that state
0%
100
« Fewer delegatesMore delegates »
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Calif.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Texas
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
N.C.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Va.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Mass.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Minn.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Colo.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Tenn.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Ala.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Okla.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Ark.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Utah
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Maine
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
Vt.
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar
American Samoa
Biden
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Klobuchar

Next race »

Whoops! This scenario shows up in less than 0.5% of simulations.
You already picked a winner here! Click their button again to deselect them and pick someone else.

… and see how the race might end

Share of available simulations in which each candidate wins a majority of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season

In the remaining 20,000 simulations …

Majority chances
Avg. delegates
Biden
31.2

1,738

Sanders
7.7

1,363

Bloomberg
0.1

555

Warren
<0.1

283

Klobuchar
<0.1

13

No one
61.0
Biden
31.2
Sanders
7.7
Bloomberg
0.1
Warren
<0.1
Klobuchar
<0.1
No one
61.0
Majority chances

1,738

1,363

555

283

13

-

Avg. delegates

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