PUBLISHED Sep. 9, 2024, at 9:45 AM

Explore The Ways Trump Or Harris Could Win The 2024 Election

Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Click to pick a winner for each state.*
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Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. States are displayed in the order of forecasted margin of victory.
Select a scenario to see how it changes the race.
Trump carries the Sun Belt
Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020
Harris carries the Rust Belt
Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states
States
Scenarios
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Dem win
Solid Dem
Likely Dem
Lean Dem
Toss-up
Lean Rep
Likely Rep
Solid Rep
Rep win
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Starting forecast:
Likely D/R
Electoral votes (538 starting forecast)
Electoral votes (your selections)
270 EVs
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There is a less than 1 out of 100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
In this scenario, Harris wins 50 out of 100 times.
In this scenario, Trump wins 49 out of 100 times.
Electoral Vote Margin
States
Scenarios
Reset
Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. States are displayed in the order of forecasted margin of victory.
Trump carries the Sun Belt
Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020
Harris carries the Rust Belt
Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states