FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. Probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations and update after each game. Read more: How this works | Complete NFL history | NBA predictions
Thurs | Sun | Mon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Away team | PIT | CAR | CLE | GB | IND | KC | MIA | SEA | DET | NO | BAL | CIN | TEN | NYG | PHI | MIN | ||||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities Pre-game Elo point spread | 28% | 66% -4.5 | 38% | 66% -4.5 | 47% | 46% | 57% -2 | 69% -5.5 | 43% | 33% | 38% | 62% -3.5 | 36% | 27% | 52% -0.5 | 34% | ||||||||||||||||
72% -6.5 | 34% | 62% -3.5 | 34% | 52% -0.5 | 54% -1 | 43% | 31% | 57% -2 | 66% -5 | 62% -3.5 | 38% | 64% -4 | 73% -7 | 47% | 66% -4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Home team | NE | JAX | NYJ | CHI | BUF | HOU | WSH | STL | SD | ARI | DEN | OAK | TB | DAL | ATL | SF | ||||||||||||||||
| Day | Away | Pre-game probabilities Pre-game Elo spread | Home | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurs Sept. 10 | PIT | 28% | 72% -6.5 | NE | |
| Sun Sept. 13 | CAR | 66% -4.5 | 34% | JAX | |
CLE | 38% | 62% -3.5 | NYJ | ||
GB | 66% -4.5 | 34% | CHI | ||
IND | 47% | 52% -0.5 | BUF | ||
KC | 46% | 54% -1 | HOU | ||
MIA | 57% -2 | 43% | WSH | ||
SEA | 69% -5.5 | 31% | STL | ||
DET | 43% | 57% -2 | SD | ||
NO | 33% | 66% -5 | ARI | ||
BAL | 38% | 62% -3.5 | DEN | ||
CIN | 62% -3.5 | 38% | OAK | ||
TEN | 36% | 64% -4 | TB | ||
NYG | 27% | 73% -7 | DAL | ||
| Mon Sept. 14 | PHI | 52% -0.5 | 47% | ATL | |
MIN | 34% | 66% -4.5 | SF | ||
| AverageAvg. Simulated Season | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sim. Results | Playoff Odds | ||||||||||
Elo Rating Elo | 1-Week Change | Team | Division | Wins W | Losses L | Point Diff. | Make Playoffs Make Play- offs | Win Division Win Div. | First Round Bye | Win Super Bowl Win Super Bowl | |
| 1678 |  | Seattle | NFC West | 11.1 | 4.9 | +109.6 | 78% | 60% | 42% | 15% | |
| 1664 |  | New England | AFC East | 11.3 | 4.7 | +118.5 | 80% | 62% | 44% | 14% | |
| 1601 |  | Green Bay | NFC North | 9.7 | 6.2 | +61.3 | 62% | 49% | 25% | 7% | |
| 1595 |  | Denver | AFC West | 9.6 | 6.4 | +55.9 | 59% | 44% | 23% | 6% | |
| 1590 |  | Dallas | NFC East | 9.8 | 6.2 | +62.6 | 63% | 47% | 26% | 6% | |
| 1581 |  | Indianapolis | AFC South | 10.2 | 5.8 | +78.2 | 71% | 60% | 29% | 6% | |
| 1577 |  | Baltimore | AFC North | 9.3 | 6.6 | +47.9 | 55% | 39% | 19% | 5% | |
| 1563 |  | Pittsburgh | AFC North | 8.5 | 7.5 | +17.7 | 43% | 28% | 13% | 4% | |
| 1545 |  | Philadelphia | NFC East | 9.0 | 7.0 | +35.1 | 49% | 32% | 16% | 3% | |
| 1541 |  | Arizona | NFC West | 8.2 | 7.8 | +6.1 | 36% | 17% | 10% | 3% | |
| 1540 |  | Cincinnati | AFC North | 8.3 | 7.7 | +9.9 | 40% | 26% | 11% | 3% | |
| 1540 |  | Kansas City | AFC West | 8.4 | 7.6 | +15.6 | 41% | 26% | 12% | 3% | |
| 1538 |  | Detroit | NFC North | 8.5 | 7.5 | +16.6 | 43% | 28% | 13% | 3% | |
| 1536 |  | Carolina | NFC South | 9.2 | 6.8 | +42.3 | 55% | 43% | 18% | 3% | |
| 1534 |  | Buffalo | AFC East | 8.8 | 7.2 | +28.4 | 44% | 20% | 12% | 3% | |
| 1529 |  | San Francisco | NFC West | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.4 | 34% | 15% | 9% | 3% | |
| 1523 |  | San Diego | AFC West | 8.4 | 7.5 | +16.0 | 41% | 25% | 11% | 2% | |
| 1505 |  | Houston | AFC South | 8.6 | 7.4 | +20.2 | 44% | 31% | 12% | 2% | |
| 1486 |  | New Orleans | NFC South | 8.2 | 7.8 | +8.3 | 39% | 27% | 10% | 2% | |
| 1484 |  | Miami | AFC East | 7.5 | 8.4 | -16.2 | 28% | 11% | 6% | 1% | |
| 1480 |  | N.Y. Giants | NFC East | 7.6 | 8.4 | -15.1 | 29% | 17% | 7% | 1% | |
| 1479 |  | Minnesota | NFC North | 7.1 | 8.9 | -30.5 | 25% | 15% | 5% | 1% | |
| 1477 |  | St. Louis | NFC West | 7.0 | 9.0 | -34.8 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 1% | |
| 1462 |  | Atlanta | NFC South | 7.7 | 8.2 | -9.0 | 32% | 22% | 8% | 1% | |
| 1440 |  | N.Y. Jets | AFC East | 6.8 | 9.2 | -42.4 | 17% | 6% | 3% | <1% | |
| 1422 |  | Cleveland | AFC North | 5.9 | 10.1 | -73.5 | 12% | 7% | 2% | <1% | |
| 1419 |  | Chicago | NFC North | 6.1 | 9.9 | -68.1 | 14% | 8% | 2% | <1% | |
| 1389 |  | Oakland | AFC West | 5.4 | 10.6 | -91.8 | 9% | 5% | 1% | <1% | |
| 1377 |  | Tampa Bay | NFC South | 5.9 | 10.0 | -72.4 | 12% | 8% | 2% | <1% | |
| 1371 |  | Washington | NFC East | 5.3 | 10.7 | -95.7 | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | |
| 1357 |  | Jacksonville | AFC South | 5.1 | 10.8 | -101.4 | 8% | 4% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1339 |  | Tennessee | AFC South | 5.2 | 10.8 | -99.6 | 8% | 5% | <1% | <1% | |
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