According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 69% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.
Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson had less than a 1% chance of winning.
Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the New Hampshire Republican primary, we’ve collected 103 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Cruz | Bush | Christie | Fiorina | Carson | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Feb. 7 | Gravis Marketing | 705 | LV | 0.92 | Trump +11 | 28% | 15% | 17% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
| • | Feb. 4-7 | Emerson College | 686 | LV | 0.85 | Trump +15 | 31% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 6% | 7% | 3% |
| • | Feb. 4-6 | Monmouth University | 508 | LV | 0.81 | Trump +16 | 30% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 7-8 | American Research Group | 418 | LV | 0.80 | Trump +16 | 33% | 14% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| • | Feb. 4-8 | University of New Hampshire | 362 | LV | 0.73 | Trump +14 | 31% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| • | Feb. 5-7 | UMass Lowell | 464 | LV | 0.63 | Trump +21 | 34% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| • | Feb. 3-4 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.48 | Trump +10 | 29% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 2-3 | Marist College | 653 | LV | 0.46 | Trump +13 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 2-4 | MassINC Polling Group | 410 | LV | 0.36 | Trump +17 | 29% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 2-6 | Franklin Pierce University | 433 | LV | 0.32 | Trump +15 | 31% | 15% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
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