Twins | 2016 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

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Starting Pitcher Adjustments

Ervin Santana

55.0

+36.3

Hector Santiago

48.7

+6.7

Kyle Gibson

47.9

+3.0

Tyler Duffey

45.8

-6.9

Pat Dean

41.7

-26.0

Jose Berrios

39.9

-34.5

Completed games

W 6-3 Oct 2

29%

@

71%

Berrios

Sale

W 6-0 Oct 1

44%

@

56%

Santiago

Shields

L 3-7 Sep 30

38%

@

62%

Duffey

Rodon

W 7-6 Sep 29

35%

@

65%

Gibson

Duffy

L 2-5 Sep 28

43%

@

57%

Santana

Vargas

L 3-4 Sep 27

30%

@

70%

Berrios

Kennedy

L 3-4 Sep 25

43%

vs.

57%

Santiago

Walker

W 3-2 Sep 24

40%

vs.

60%

Duffey

Miranda

L 1-10 Sep 23

42%

vs.

58%

Gibson

Paxton

L 2-4 Sep 22

43%

vs.

57%

Santana

Verlander

L 2-9 Sep 22

43%

vs.

57%

Dean

Sanchez

L 1-8 Sep 20

49%

vs.

51%

Santiago

Boyd

L 2-3 Sep 18

41%

@

59%

Gibson

Ynoa

L 2-3 Sep 17

40%

@

60%

Santana

Lugo

L 0-3 Sep 16

33%

@

67%

Berrios

Colon

W 5-1 Sep 15

43%

@

57%

Santiago

Pelfrey

L 6-9 Sep 14

41%

@

59%

Duffey

Sanchez

W 8-1 Sep 13

40%

@

60%

Gibson

Boyd

L 2-4 Sep 12

44%

@

56%

Santana

Norris

L 1-7 Sep 11

31%

vs.

69%

Berrios

Kluber

W 2-1 Sep 10

45%

vs.

55%

Santiago

Clevinger

L 4-5 Sep 9

42%

vs.

58%

Duffey

Salazar

W 6-5 Sep 7

41%

vs.

59%

Gibson

Duffy

L 3-10 Sep 6

53%

vs.

47%

Santana

Gee

L 5-11 Sep 5

39%

vs.

61%

Berrios

Kennedy

L 11-13 Sep 4

52%

vs.

48%

Albers

Ranaudo

W 11-3 Sep 3

55%

vs.

45%

Santiago

Shields

L 4-11 Sep 2

49%

vs.

51%

Gibson

Rodon

W 8-5 Sep 1

49%

vs.

51%

Santana

Quintana

L 4-8 Aug 31

28%

@

72%

Dean

Kluber

L 4-5 Aug 30

39%

@

61%

Albers

Tomlin

L 0-1 Aug 29

37%

@

63%

Santiago

Bauer

L 6-9 Aug 28

37%

@

63%

Gibson

Dickey

L 7-8 Aug 27

40%

@

60%

Santana

Stroman

L 8-15 Aug 26

37%

@

63%

Dean

Liriano

L 5-8 Aug 25

43%

vs.

57%

Berrios

Norris

L 4-9 Aug 24

49%

vs.

51%

Duffey

Boyd

L 3-8 Aug 23

52%

vs.

48%

Gibson

Sanchez

L 1-2 Aug 21

42%

@

58%

Santana

Duffy

L 0-10 Aug 20

42%

@

58%

Santiago

Kennedy

L 4-5 Aug 19

40%

@

60%

Berrios

Volquez

L 1-8 Aug 18

48%

@

52%

Duffey

Gee

W 10-3 Aug 17

53%

@

47%

Gibson

Foltynewicz

W 4-2 Aug 16

58%

@

42%

Santana

De Leon

L 4-11 Aug 14

55%

vs.

45%

Santiago

Volquez

W 5-3 Aug 13

56%

vs.

44%

Duffey

Gee

L 3-7 Aug 12

54%

vs.

46%

Gibson

Ventura

L 2-10 Aug 11

48%

vs.

52%

Milone

Devenski

L 7-15 Aug 11

44%

vs.

56%

Berrios

Fister

L 5-7 Aug 9

49%

vs.

51%

Santiago

Fiers

W 3-1 Aug 8

47%

vs.

53%

Duffey

McHugh

W 6-3 Aug 7

48%

@

52%

Gibson

Andriese

L 3-7 Aug 6

43%

@

57%

Berrios

Archer

W 6-2 Aug 5

48%

@

52%

Santana

Snell

L 2-9 Aug 4

48%

@

52%

Santiago

Clevinger

W 13-5 Aug 3

39%

@

61%

Duffey

Bauer

W 10-6 Aug 2

37%

@

63%

Gibson

Carrasco

W 12-5 Aug 1

30%

@

70%

Berrios

Salazar

W 6-4 Jul 31

55%

vs.

45%

Santana

Rodon

L 5-6 Jul 30

50%

vs.

50%

Milone

Gonzalez

W 2-1 Jul 29

45%

vs.

55%

Nolasco

Quintana

W 6-2 Jul 28

52%

vs.

48%

Gibson

Jimenez

L 7-9 Jul 27

60%

vs.

40%

Duffey

Foltynewicz

L 0-2 Jul 26

67%

vs.

33%

Santana

Harrell

L 7-8 Jul 24

36%

@

64%

Milone

Porcello

W 11-9 Jul 23

32%

@

68%

Nolasco

Price

W 2-1 Jul 22

40%

@

60%

Gibson

Rodriguez

L 2-13 Jul 21

36%

@

64%

Duffey

Wright

W 4-1 Jul 20

39%

@

61%

Santana

Verlander

W 6-2 Jul 19

44%

@

56%

Milone

Sanchez

L 0-1 Jul 18

43%

@

56%

Nolasco

Boyd

L 1-6 Jul 17

46%

vs.

54%

Gibson

Tomlin

W 5-4 Jul 16

44%

vs.

56%

Duffey

Bauer

L 2-5 Jul 15

43%

vs.

56%

Santana

Carrasco

W 15-5 Jul 10

35%

@

65%

Milone

Griffin

W 8-6 Jul 9

41%

@

59%

Nolasco

Lohse

L 5-6 Jul 8

35%

@

65%

Gibson

Hamels

W 10-1 Jul 7

40%

@

60%

Duffey

Gonzalez

W 4-0 Jul 6

52%

vs.

48%

Santana

Gray

W 11-4 Jul 5

48%

vs.

52%

Milone

Manaea

L 1-3 Jul 4

51%

vs.

49%

Nolasco

Graveman

W 5-4 Jul 3

39%

vs.

61%

Gibson

Hamels

W 17-5 Jul 2

44%

vs.

56%

Duffey

Gonzalez

L 2-3 Jul 1

42%

vs.

58%

Santana

Perez

L 5-6 Jun 30

39%

@

61%

Milone

Rodon

L 6-9 Jun 29

45%

@

55%

Nolasco

Shields

W 4-0 Jun 28

36%

@

64%

Gibson

Quintana

W 7-1 Jun 26

38%

@

62%

Duffey

Eovaldi

L 1-2 Jun 25

40%

@

60%

Santana

Pineda

L 3-5 Jun 24

33%

@

67%

Milone

Tanaka

L 3-7 Jun 23

55%

vs.

45%

Nolasco

Eickhoff

W 6-5 Jun 22

61%

vs.

39%

Gibson

Morgan

W 14-10 Jun 21

56%

vs.

44%

Duffey

Nola

W 7-4 Jun 19

45%

vs.

55%

Santana

Eovaldi

L 6-7 Jun 18

45%

vs.

55%

Nolasco

Pineda

L 2-8 Jun 17

43%

vs.

57%

Dean

Tanaka

L 1-4 Jun 16

45%

vs.

55%

Gibson

Sabathia

L 2-10 Jun 15

44%

@

56%

Duffey

Santiago

L 4-5 Jun 14

42%

@

58%

Santana

Chacin

W 9-4 Jun 13

42%

@

58%

Nolasco

Weaver

W 7-4 Jun 12

39%

vs.

61%

Dean

Porcello

L 4-15 Jun 11

42%

vs.

58%

Gibson

Rodriguez

L 1-8 Jun 10

40%

vs.

60%

Duffey

Wright

L 3-10 Jun 9

54%

vs.

46%

Santana

Koehler

W 7-5 Jun 8

48%

vs.

52%

Nolasco

Chen

W 6-4 Jun 7

50%

vs.

50%

Dean

Conley

L 5-7 Jun 5

47%

vs.

53%

Duffey

Smyly

L 4-7 Jun 4

48%

vs.

52%

Santana

Andriese

L 2-4 Jun 3

46%

vs.

54%

Nolasco

Odorizzi

W 6-4 Jun 2

50%

vs.

50%

Hughes

Moore

L 1-5 Jun 1

49%

@

51%

Dean

Manaea

L 4-7 May 31

50%

@

50%

Duffey

Surkamp

L 2-3 May 30

47%

@

53%

Santana

Graveman

W 5-4 May 29

36%

@

64%

Nolasco

Walker

W 6-5 May 28

38%

@

62%

Hughes

Miley

W 7-2 May 27

34%

@

66%

Dean

Hernandez

W 7-5 May 25

51%

vs.

49%

Duffey

Gee

L 4-7 May 24

48%

vs.

52%

Santana

Volquez

L 4-10 May 23

46%

vs.

54%

Nolasco

Kennedy

L 1-3 May 22

45%

vs.

55%

Hughes

Stroman

W 5-3 May 21

43%

vs.

57%

Dean

Happ

L 3-9 May 20

48%

vs.

52%

Duffey

Sanchez

L 2-3 May 19

44%

vs.

56%

Santana

Estrada

L 3-6 May 18

37%

@

63%

Nolasco

Verlander

L 2-7 May 17

46%

@

54%

Hughes

Pelfrey

L 8-10 May 16

37%

@

63%

Berrios

Zimmermann

W 5-1 May 15

43%

@

57%

Duffey

Bauer

W 6-3 May 14

36%

@

64%

Santana

Kluber

L 6-7 May 13

38%

@

62%

Nolasco

Tomlin

L 2-9 May 11

48%

vs.

52%

Hughes

Wilson

L 3-5 May 10

43%

vs.

57%

Berrios

Gausman

L 1-3 May 8

36%

@

64%

Duffey

Quintana

L 2-7 May 7

35%

@

65%

Santana

Sale

L 4-10 May 6

40%

@

60%

Nolasco

Latos

L 4-16 May 4

42%

@

57%

Hughes

Fiers

L 4-6 May 3

41%

@

59%

Meyer

McHugh

W 6-2 May 2

35%

@

65%

Berrios

Keuchel

L 5-6 May 1

51%

vs.

49%

Nolasco

Pelfrey

L 1-4 Apr 30

46%

vs.

54%

Duffey

Zimmermann

L 2-9 Apr 29

53%

vs.

47%

Hughes

Fulmer

L 5-6 Apr 27

46%

vs.

54%

Berrios

Tomlin

W 6-5 Apr 26

50%

vs.

50%

Nolasco

Anderson

W 4-3 Apr 25

43%

vs.

57%

Milone

Salazar

L 5-6 Apr 24

36%

@

64%

Duffey

Strasburg

L 0-2 Apr 23

43%

@

57%

Hughes

Roark

L 4-8 Apr 22

40%

@

60%

Gibson

Gonzalez

W 8-1 Apr 21

47%

@

53%

Nolasco

Jungmann

L 5-10 Apr 20

45%

@

55%

Milone

Nelson

L 5-6 Apr 19

60%

vs.

40%

Santana

Peralta

W 7-4 Apr 18

56%

vs.

44%

Hughes

Anderson

W 3-2 Apr 17

51%

vs.

49%

Gibson

Tropeano

W 6-4 Apr 16

49%

vs.

51%

Nolasco

Weaver

W 5-4 Apr 15

47%

vs.

53%

Milone

Richards

L 1-3 Apr 14

51%

vs.

49%

Santana

Latos

L 0-3 Apr 13

50%

vs.

50%

Hughes

Rodon

L 1-4 Apr 11

47%

vs.

53%

Gibson

Quintana

L 3-4 Apr 10

40%

@

60%

Nolasco

Volquez

L 0-7 Apr 9

45%

@

55%

Milone

Kennedy

L 3-4 Apr 8

44%

@

56%

Santana

Ventura

L 2-4 Apr 7

45%

@

55%

Hughes

Jimenez

L 2-4 Apr 6

46%

@

54%

Gibson

Gallardo

L 2-3 Apr 4

47%

@

53%

Santana

Tillman

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