Forecasting the races for governor

Updated Nov. 6, 2018, at 11:06 AM

Our forecast for every race for governor

What share of the national population Democrats and Republicans are expected to govern, based on the most likely winner in each of the 36 gubernatorial elections taking place in 2018 and who controls the 14 seats not up for election.

No electionSolid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid RNo election
No electionSolidLikelyLeanToss-upLeanLikelySolidNo election
≥95%≥75%≥60%<60% both≥60%≥75%≥95%
Third party
Lean thirdLikely thirdSolid third

Who's ahead in each race

The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.



80% chance outcome falls in this range



How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …