Arkansas 2nd

Likely R

1 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (20.2%)

4 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (79.8%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Arkansas 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+6.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+5.0

    CANTOR

  • R+4.5

    Fundamentals

  • R+6.7

    Experts

  • R+6.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+5.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+5.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Arkansas 2nd

We've collected two polls for the Arkansas 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Tucker
Hill
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 5-7
9/5-7
Hendrix College428LV
0.71
41%50%R+9.0 <0.1 1.4 R+7.6
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
610V
0.28
42%47%R+5.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 R+5.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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