Arkansas 3rd

Solid R

<1 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (0.1%)

>99 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (99.9%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Arkansas 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+20.6

    Adjusted polls

  • R+18.3

    CANTOR

  • R+30.4

    Fundamentals

  • R+25.0

    Experts

  • R+19.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+26.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+25.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Arkansas 3rd

We've collected one poll for the Arkansas 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Mahony
Womack
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 5-7
9/5-7
Hendrix College428LV
0.77
31%53%R+22.0 <0.1 1.3 R+20.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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