California 20th

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the California 20th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 20th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CA-5	57	—
CA-19	52	—
CA-6	51	—
CA-51	48	—
CA-24	44	D+5.8
AZ-3	43	—
NM-1	42	D+10.7
CA-32	42	—
CA-53	41	—
CA-35	41	—

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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