>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 40th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 40th
Sim. score Polling avg.
CA-4465
CA-3453
CA-2946
AZ-743
IL-442
TX-2940
CA-3537
TX-3335
CA-5132
CA-4331

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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