>99 in 100

Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 44th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 44th
Sim. score Polling avg.
CA-4065
CA-2960
CA-3456
CA-4354
AZ-752
IL-452
CA-3750
CA-3549
CA-5142
CA-4639

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

FactorImpactExplanation
Fundraising
6.4
Barragan
As of Oct. 17, Nanette Barragan had raised $926,000 in individual contributions (98% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Aja Brown had raised $18,000 (2%).
Top-two primary margin
38.9
Barragan
Barragan won the June primary by 48.5 percentage points.
Total
Barragan+45.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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