California 44th

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the California 44th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 44th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CA-40	65	—
CA-29	60	—
CA-34	56	—
CA-43	54	—
AZ-7	52	—
IL-4	52	—
CA-37	50	—
CA-35	49	—
CA-51	42	—
CA-46	39	—

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

Factor	Impact	Explanation
Fundraising	6.4 Barragan	As of Oct. 17, Nanette Barragan had raised $926,000 in individual contributions (98% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Aja Brown had raised $18,000 (2%).
Top-two primary margin	38.9 Barragan	Barragan won the June primary by 48.5 percentage points.
Total	Barragan+45.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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