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>99 in 100
Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)
Chance of winning
Popular vote share
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the California 44th
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|As of Oct. 17, Nanette Barragan had raised $926,000 in individual contributions (98% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Aja Brown had raised $18,000 (2%).|
|Top-two primary margin|
|Barragan won the June primary by 48.5 percentage points.|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …