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Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|As of Oct. 17, Doris Matsui had raised $246,000 in individual contributions (100% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Jrmar Jefferson had raised $0 (0%).|
|Top-two primary margin|
|Matsui won the June primary by 75.7 percentage points.|
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …