California 6th

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the California 6th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 6th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CA-47	60	—
CA-5	60	—
CA-53	59	—
CO-1	59	—
CA-20	51	—
CA-28	50	—
CA-43	49	—
CA-38	49	—
CA-11	49	—
CA-9	46	—

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

Factor	Impact	Explanation
Fundraising	6.6 Matsui	As of Oct. 17, Doris Matsui had raised $246,000 in individual contributions (100% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Jrmar Jefferson had raised $0 (0%).
Top-two primary margin	50.2 Matsui	Matsui won the June primary by 75.7 percentage points.
Total	Matsui+56.8

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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