California 8th

Solid R

>99 in 100

Chance a Republican wins (>99.9%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the California 8th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 8th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CA-23	66	—
CA-22	62	R+9.6
CA-10	56	D+2.1
NM-2	52	R+0.9
WA-4	52	—
CA-50	50	R+4.7
TX-27	49	—
AZ-1	47	D+4.2
NV-4	46	D+3.6
CA-42	45	—

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

Factor	Impact	Explanation
Fundraising	1.5	As of Oct. 17, Paul Cook had raised $283,000 in individual contributions (61% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Tim Donnelly had raised $177,000 (39%).
Top-two primary margin	18.7	Cook won the June primary by 17.9 percentage points.
Total	R+20.2

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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