>99 in 100

Chance a Republican wins (>99.9%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the California 8th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the California 8th
Sim. score Polling avg.
CA-2366
CA-2262R+9.6
CA-1056D+2.1
NM-252R+0.9
WA-452
CA-5050R+4.7
TX-2749
AZ-147D+4.2
NV-446D+3.6
CA-4245

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

FactorImpactExplanation
Fundraising
1.5
As of Oct. 17, Paul Cook had raised $283,000 in individual contributions (61% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Tim Donnelly had raised $177,000 (39%).
Top-two primary margin
18.7
Cook won the June primary by 17.9 percentage points.
Total
R+20.2

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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