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Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
---|---|---|---|
FL-7 | 70 | D+2.5 | |
FL-10 | 66 | — | |
FL-21 | 65 | — | |
FL-22 | 60 | — | |
TN-5 | 59 | — | |
FL-23 | 56 | — | |
FL-9 | 53 | D+7.9 | |
AZ-9 | 53 | — | |
KY-3 | 51 | — | |
FL-13 | 51 | — |
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
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