Florida 15th

Lean R

1 in 3

Chance the Democrat wins (34.2%)

2 in 3

Chance the Republican wins (65.8%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Florida 15th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+0.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.6

    CANTOR

  • R+4.0

    Fundamentals

  • R+8.4

    Experts

  • R+1.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+2.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+4.6

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Florida 15th

We've collected one poll for the Florida 15th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Carlson
Spano
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 4-8
9/4-8
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
400LV
0.62
48%47%D+1.0 <0.1 1.3 R+0.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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