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Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
---|---|---|---|
GA-4 | 61 | — | |
TN-9 | 60 | — | |
MI-14 | 51 | — | |
NC-12 | 49 | — | |
MO-1 | 49 | — | |
GA-13 | 48 | — | |
MD-7 | 48 | — | |
IL-7 | 46 | — | |
FL-20 | 45 | — | |
PA-3 | 45 | — |
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
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