Iowa 2nd

Solid D

59 in 60

Chance the Democrat wins (98.4%)

1 in 60

Chance the Republican wins (1.6%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Iowa 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+15.3

    Adjusted polls

  • D+15.5

    CANTOR

  • D+17.4

    Fundamentals

  • D+24.1

    Experts

  • D+15.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+16.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+19.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Iowa 2nd

We've collected two polls for the Iowa 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Loebsack
Peters
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 8-11
9/8-11
Gravis Marketing
R
425A
0.40
45%38%D+7.0 1.9 <0.1 2.4 D+7.5
Sep. 6-8
9/6-8
Emerson College250RV
0.44
45%21%D+24.0 0.6 <0.1 1.2 D+22.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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