Kansas 4th

Likely R

1 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (18.6%)

4 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (81.4%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Kansas 4th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+1.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+16.1

    CANTOR

  • R+9.1

    Fundamentals

  • R+22.5

    Experts

  • R+9.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+6.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+12.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Kansas 4th

We've collected one poll for the Kansas 4th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Thompson
Estes
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 17-19
7/17-19
Change Research
D
1,896LV
0.82
38%42%R+3.7 0.6 1.1 R+1.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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